tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post3562534577536844894..comments2023-10-20T06:12:38.934-07:00Comments on Redlegs Baseball: The Arrival: Drew StubbsLark11http://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-19832618527949492412009-09-14T22:46:21.768-07:002009-09-14T22:46:21.768-07:00Hey Parker,
Homer is still a bit of an enigma, bu...Hey Parker,<br /><br />Homer is still a bit of an enigma, but there are a couple of factors that are contributing to his success. First and foremost, his velocity is finally back to the mid-nineties like it was reputed to be. In addition, he's been throwing a lot more strikes as of late. <br /><br />Here are his last few games broken down total pitches and strikes:<br /><br />September 13: 115/81<br />September 7: 117/71<br />September 2: 116/73<br />August 28: 115/74<br />August 23: 114/69<br /><br />He's had better stuff and he's starting to command it more effectively. There has been some question about the changes the Reds made to Homer's mechanics, but I like the changes and I'm hoping that he's beginning to find a more consistent arm slot. If he finds a consistent release point, then the command of his pitches should continue to improve. <br /><br />I'm more optimistic about Homer than I have been since he was first called up. He has a chance to take a significant step forward in 2010, which we need given the loss of Edinson Volquez. <br /><br />At the very least, it's nice to see a measure of competence out of Homer. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-57877403016813061412009-09-13T13:51:34.006-07:002009-09-13T13:51:34.006-07:00Lark,
What is Bailey doing different now, with h...Lark, <br /><br />What is Bailey doing different now, with his current run, than he was doing before?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />ParkerParkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06524089087112383221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-55309470648628280102009-09-11T14:46:11.106-07:002009-09-11T14:46:11.106-07:00trade for hardy or move phillips to ss frazier to ...trade for hardy or move phillips to ss frazier to 2nd, sign a vet for 5th spot, and move votto to lf and yonder take first. all our holes are filled. Of course i still think they would be a year away from contendingsmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-16017481943778126722009-09-10T22:59:49.109-07:002009-09-10T22:59:49.109-07:00Hey Parker,
I use a little bit of everything. Jus...Hey Parker,<br /><br />I use a little bit of everything. Just depends on what I'm trying to find out. If I want a quick and dirty take on how a pitcher is performing, I use K/9, BB/9, and GB/FB. For the most part, that's what's within the pitcher's control, so those are the most important. Strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate. I'm not too big on ERA, but I use it in tandem with FIP sometimes. I like WHIP. I also like LOB%, BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB. Of course, the PitchFx data can yield some interesting info, as can stats on contact rate and first pitch strike %. There are so many different metrics out there now that you can determine what's really going on with pitchers.<br /><br />As for the rotation next year, that looks about right. Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds sign a vet to fill the 5th spot. I like Maloney, but I think the Reds have soured on him or were never sweet on him to begin with. Travis Wood will get a look, but given his triple-A struggles and how conservative the Reds are, he seems unlikely to win a rotation spot out of spring training. It'll be interesting to see what becomes of Owings. He could get another shot at the 5th spot, but I suspect the Reds will look to upgrade.<br /><br />As for the bullpen, that seems about right as well. I don't see Coco getting traded. He's making a lot of coin, but he's been pretty solid. The guy I think we should have traded is Art Rhodes. What exactly do we need with Art? He's been great, but is he likely to be that good again in 2010? Seems doubtful. Given how many teams needed bullpen help, I'm surprised to see Art still in Cincy.<br /><br />As for Phillips, I really wanted to trade him after his 30/30 season. I thought that was the high water mark and that we should have sold high. I took a lot of flak for that one, as you can imagine it wasn't a popular opinion at the time. Still, the guy I was targeting was Zack Greinke, so that would have turned out pretty well for us. But, now, I'm pretty much resigned to keeping him.<br /><br />Anyway, I think the Reds should keep Phillips. I'm not sure I buy Frazier at 2b, though it is curious to see the Reds working him out there, so maybe there is something in the works. Or, maybe the Reds are planning to shift Phillips over to shortstop.<br /><br />It'll be interesting to see what the Reds do this offseason. I think they are pretty close to having a contending team, especially if Homer Bailey takes a step forward. It will take a couple of shrewd moves, but it can be done. To me, the no-brainer is to deal Juan Francisco and Yonder Alonso to improve the team. Both are going to be nice chips and neither should fit into the Cincy plans going forward. They could really bring some value back to the organization to fill positions of need.<br /><br />As for Dorn, the Reds are going to let him wither and die on the vine. I've never gotten the feeling that they view him as anything other than organizational depth or a bench player. Unfortunately, his 2009 season got off to a very slow start and his numbers certainly reflect it. I'm a big fan of Dorn, but he probably needs a new organization to get any kind of legitimate shot, especially with Stubbs and Bruce holding down two of the three outfield slots for the foreseeable future.<br /><br />Thanks for the comment. It will be very interesting to see how things unfold this offseason. The Reds are one or two smart moves from being a quality ballclub. And, they actually have the chips to get something done. The question is whether Jocketty will make a smart move.<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-59704561801124148942009-09-10T21:10:19.112-07:002009-09-10T21:10:19.112-07:00Lark,
What are your measures of determining value...Lark,<br /><br />What are your measures of determining value of a SP? For example, I use: IP, SO-BB ratio, WHIP, and ERA.<br /><br />What do you suppose the rotation and bullpen look like next year?<br /><br />Harang-Arroyo-Cueto-Bailey-Maloney<br /><br />Masset-Fisher-Burton-Owings-Herrera-Rhodes-?<br /><br />Cordero-traded, I think i should happen.<br /><br />Lastly, I think, should the Reds entertain the idea of trading Phillips. He would be more marketable now bc his salary in 2010 is under 7, slightly. Then, in 2011, it jumps to 11 something. This is under the idea they could put Frazier in to take his place. However, writing this all out, sounds bad. A LOT would have to go right with the Reds to win. That is a lot of rookies/young guys (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Frazier, Dickerson, Cueto, Bailey). Then again, Phillips is going to be the deal breaker that wins the central. Anyway, the question...should they trade him?<br /><br />Oh, I lied, one more. What do they do with Danny Dorn?Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06524089087112383221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-12806767424192415322009-09-10T10:17:53.199-07:002009-09-10T10:17:53.199-07:00yea i really like the grady sizemore comparison ex...yea i really like the grady sizemore comparison except i think stubbs has a little less power and more speed and obviously stubbs is a righty. But excellent defense, high walk rates, lots of k's and 260-270 avg. <br /><br /> hopefully if he can prove that he has as much power as grady, then i think he could be more valuble with his speed.smittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-67940722709918375432009-09-09T21:06:16.516-07:002009-09-09T21:06:16.516-07:00Hey Anon,
I'm working on a few posts. Doing a...Hey Anon,<br /><br />I'm working on a few posts. Doing a bit of research for Step 3 of Rebuilding the Big Red Machine and couple other topics. I'll get them up as soon as possible. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-23722552458447804062009-09-09T20:56:12.215-07:002009-09-09T20:56:12.215-07:00Parker,
The power is unbelievable. Where has it b...Parker,<br /><br />The power is unbelievable. Where has it been? Hopefully, it's a sign of what is to come. However, I'll reserve judgment until the sample size gets a bit bigger. After all, Chris Dickerson flashed a lot of power last August/September and it didn't carry over into 2009. Still, Stubbs' power is more in line with his track record, so hopefully it's here to stay. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-22877910763952057132009-09-09T20:53:50.607-07:002009-09-09T20:53:50.607-07:00Smitty,
Yeah, I remember you were very high on St...Smitty,<br /><br />Yeah, I remember you were very high on Stubbs. I believe you liked a Grady Sizemore comparison for him. I hope you're right on that one. <br /><br />Best, <br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-37944199097452418292009-09-09T12:44:09.970-07:002009-09-09T12:44:09.970-07:00any new posts comeing?any new posts comeing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-14232065566479078762009-09-06T12:52:53.825-07:002009-09-06T12:52:53.825-07:00Number 5!Number 5!Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06524089087112383221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-50221554401466644952009-09-05T20:47:51.680-07:002009-09-05T20:47:51.680-07:00stubbs is a beast btwstubbs is a beast btwsmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-40024758242254369232009-09-05T20:37:44.368-07:002009-09-05T20:37:44.368-07:00i drank a little too much today haha go bucksi drank a little too much today haha go buckssmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-53153922713068401412009-09-05T09:48:21.027-07:002009-09-05T09:48:21.027-07:00Smitty,
Yeah, I remember you being very high on S...Smitty,<br /><br />Yeah, I remember you being very high on Stubbs. I hope you are right and that Stubbs' new found power stroke is for real. If he can hit for power, then he has true impact potential. <br /><br />At this point, he's looking more and more like another Mike Cameron. Good power, speed, on base skills, and defense, but problematic contact rate may prevent good batting averages. <br /><br />Another Mike Cameron wouldn't be too shabby. Not at all. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-84863584938130600282009-09-02T09:10:28.140-07:002009-09-02T09:10:28.140-07:00I really like stubbs, I have been defending him al...I really like stubbs, I have been defending him all year against everyone who has been calling for him to be traded and let heisey take his spot. <br /><br />I say we give him the rest of the year in center and should be the favorite in spring training. Give him every oppurtunity to shine, because if he crashes and burns we have alot of centerfielders in the minors that could step up in the next few years. I really dont think that will be an issue, as i have a lot of confidence in him.smittynoreply@blogger.com