tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post4687388911570382190..comments2023-10-20T06:12:38.934-07:00Comments on Redlegs Baseball: 2009 Top Prospect List: "Other Notables"Lark11http://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-40083758290926072252009-05-26T18:18:13.936-07:002009-05-26T18:18:13.936-07:00Anon,
It's a funny thing about Willy T and I thin...Anon,<br /><br />It's a funny thing about Willy T and I think it's explainable by lowered expectations. As it stands right now, everyone is down on Chris Dickerson, but loves Willy T. <br /><br />Why?<br /><br />Currently, Willy T has a slash line of .274/.335/.348/.683 and everyone loves him. Chris Dickerson has a slash line of .228/.374/.354/.728 and everyone is down on him. C-Dick has a higher OBP, SLG, and, of course, OPS than Willy T. So, what makes Willy T so great? <br /><br />Willy T's defense has been solid in center, but Chris Dickerson has always been neck and neck with Drew Stubbs for the title of best defensive outfielder in the system. Given a complete season, I'm not at all convinced that Willy would be the more valuable defensive player. <br /><br />From where I sit, Willy T's big advantage is in base stealing. That's about it. So, why is everyone so high on Willy T? Is it because expectations were so high for Dickerson? Or, is it because people like early count slap hitters who run fast?<br /><br />I guess my big problem with Willy T starting while Dickerson rides the pine is that there really isn't much upside left to Willy T. I mean, he is what is currently doing. Best case, he hits .300+ while doing it, while the worst case is that he hits .260 while doing it. Still, this is pretty much it. <br /><br />As for Dickerson, a case could be made that he is as valuable as Willy T right now AND I don't think it's a stretch to say that he still has untapped potential. He hasn't found his power stroke yet, but it's in there. And, if he taps into it again, then he's much more valuable than Taveras. And, it's not even all that close. <br /><br />At this point, I just don't quite understand the massive discrepancy in playing time and fan appreciation between Dickerson and Taveras. <br /><br />Anyway, that's my stance on it. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-20899726836527775662009-05-26T14:51:08.449-07:002009-05-26T14:51:08.449-07:00Hey lark can I make one observation and that is th...Hey lark can I make one observation and that is that Willy Taveras is only 6 months older than Dickerson and is a solid veteran as he only had one down year in colorado where he hit .251 but swiped 68 bags. He has seen the postseason and has performed nicely in the world series. His defense, speed and plate discipline are to be desired. As much as I like Dickerson if I was running this ball a club a future outfield of Stubbs, Taveras and Bruce would prove to be the best in baseball. I would hope you would agree.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-60656216163086388652009-05-06T12:27:00.000-07:002009-05-06T12:27:00.000-07:00Hey Anon,
I have about 3 things have written, so ...Hey Anon,<br /><br />I have about 3 things have written, so I should have some new stuff up by this weekend. I usually try to post more regularly, but things have been hectic as of late. Thanks!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-53062626932807292962009-05-06T12:07:00.000-07:002009-05-06T12:07:00.000-07:00Are you planeing on postong anything new soon? May...Are you planeing on postong anything new soon? Maybe some draft stuff would be really cool.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-13646264247113890122009-05-05T23:32:00.000-07:002009-05-05T23:32:00.000-07:00Oh, forgot to mention, Sutton made his Reds organi...Oh, forgot to mention, Sutton made his Reds organization debut tonight. He went 1-4 with a walk for Louisville and played 2b. It'll be fun to see what he can do.Lark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-73477452702954328702009-05-05T23:11:00.000-07:002009-05-05T23:11:00.000-07:00Hey rocflight,
I think you think hit all the big ...Hey rocflight,<br /><br />I think you think hit all the big issues on Drew Sutton. The Astros are probably the weakest farm system in baseball, so you have to take his high ranking there with a grain of salt. That said, he was quite strong last year.<br /><br />I'm actually working on a write up of Sutton and should have it posted by this weekend. When I'm done with that, I should have a good idea of where I think he ranks in our system. I need to do a bit more research on him first. <br /><br />As for the trade, I think the Reds were tired of Keppinger's struggles and saw more viable options coming up through the farm system. Guys like Paul Janish and Adam Rosales can provide as much value as Keppinger at a lower cost. So, I'm sure that money had something to do with it, but also the fact that our bench was getting crowded. Also, I think Keppinger needed a change of scenery, so hopefully it works out well for everyone. <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the comment!! I'll have more on Sutton later this week. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-14866663007783513312009-05-04T11:22:00.000-07:002009-05-04T11:22:00.000-07:00Thanks for your great insights, Lark!
Question on...Thanks for your great insights, Lark!<br /><br />Question on Drew Sutton. Some had him ranked in the top ten this year in the Astros farm, though they have arguably the worst group of prospects in the majors. A lot of people also question his age (26) and the fact he had to repeat AA. <br /><br />Would he make your top 25 or has time really run out? Was the motivation behind this trade mostly for the cash returns?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-33366283193672511462009-05-02T23:55:00.000-07:002009-05-02T23:55:00.000-07:00Rocflight,
Thanks for the comment!
Bankston is a...Rocflight,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Bankston is an interesting player. I'm not sure you can realistically call him a prospect at this point, but he was a good one a while back. In the Rays organization, he was shaping up to be a quality 1b prospect. Unfortunately, he never quite got over the hump. <br /><br />Part of the reason may be that the Rays tried to switch him to third and it just didn't take. In addition, he suffered a few injuries which slowed his progress. At that point, the Rays designated him for assignment and the Royals nabbed him off waivers. After that, he spent time with the A's and now the Reds. Interestingly, his acquisition always seems to generate a bit of excitement in his new organization, but he never puts it together. <br /><br />You pretty hit the nail on the head with Bankston, who has a decent skill set at the plate. At one time, he had the ability to hit for average, control the strike zone, and hit for above average power. Now, he seems to have decent batting average and solid power. <br /><br />At this point, he strikes me as an organizational player more than a legitimate option at the MLB level. He always seems to do just enough to create a little excitement and get himself noticed, but he just can't take it to the next level. I wouldn't consider him to be a legitimate option at the MLB level. He might be able to hold down the 25th spot on the roster for a couple weeks, but much more than that isn't overly realistic. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-85876299271109985702009-05-01T15:41:00.000-07:002009-05-01T15:41:00.000-07:00How about a guy like Bankston? What's his story?
...How about a guy like Bankston? What's his story?<br /><br />He seems to be hitting the ball both for power and average but probably another guy without a defined position. Not seeing much defensively.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-49224889194583193162009-04-28T15:06:00.000-07:002009-04-28T15:06:00.000-07:00Smitty,
At this point, I doubt Stubbs is the guy ...Smitty,<br /><br />At this point, I doubt Stubbs is the guy the Reds would call up. As you mention, he has been scuffling at triple-A, though he did go 3-5 today, so maybe he's coming out of it. Even so, I'd image that if the Reds are going to make a change that Jonny Gomes would get the first crack. You could make a case for hot hitting Chris Heisey, but I doubt they'd promoted him to the majors from double-A and have him leapfrog Drew Stubbs. <br /><br />If it was up to me, I'd give Dickerson every chance to get it rolling. That said, given that he was headbutted by Tejada last night, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds take the opportunity to put Dickerson on the DL and send him on a rehab assignment to get him some regular ABs. I'd imagine if there were ANY lingering concussion like effects, then that's what they'll do. <br /><br />As for Rosales, you got your wish. The Reds just placed Edwin on the DL with a chip fracture in his wrist and recalled Adam Rosales. I think it's a good idea, as I long ago soured on Edwin. I doubt Rosales is the longterm answer, but he's white hot right now and can only be an improvement over Edwin. As for Frazier, the Reds moved him to the outfield, so I don't think he'll get a look at 3b any time soon. <br /><br />It'll be very interesting to see how Rosales performs. I think the time was right to make a move. <br /><br />Thanks for the thoughts!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-79447918960781321532009-04-28T05:29:00.000-07:002009-04-28T05:29:00.000-07:00lark, do you think im crazy for thinking that we s...lark, do you think im crazy for thinking that we should bring up stubbs? I mean, if we are going with speed and defense he fits perfect and even though he is struggling at the plate, it cant be much worse than what we are getting from dickerson/hairston right now. plus the trio of taveras, stubbs, and bruce would just be an amazing defensive outfield<br /><br />idk maybe we should wait for him to start hitting a little more first what do you think?<br /><br />and how about Rosales, the dude is on fire. i never really liked him but if he keeps hitting like this how can you ignore him? i know its small sample size but if he is still hitting half-way through may and EE isn't,then trade EE and have rosales fill in untill frazier is readysmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-82296297091233223142009-04-27T09:22:00.000-07:002009-04-27T09:22:00.000-07:00Smitty,
Thanks for the comment.
I agree with you...Smitty,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment.<br /><br />I agree with you on the depth of the system. The organization has really improved the farm system, both in depth and top tier talent. We graduated a lot of top notch talent last year, but we've done a nice job filling the void with Yonder, Duran, and Yorman. And, we've improved our depth through better drafting.<br /><br />I actually thought the farm system would have a bigger drop off than we did after Cueto, Bruce, and Votto arrived in the show. It seems that we have done a much better job finding value in the later rounds of the draft, as evidenced by Danny Dorn, Alex Buchholz, Zach Cozart, Josh Roenicke, and Chris Heisey.<br /><br />Speaking of Heisey, I actually do like him. I think he's a nice, well-rounded player. He doesn't really have any weaknesses, but he doesn't have any massive strengths, either. Well, his defensive skill is definitely a strength, which is a big plus in my book. Even so, I have a hard time envisioning him as more than a 4th outfielder.<br /><br />When you are coming up with a prospect list like this, you have to determine how you want to balance upside vs. polish. Do you give the nod to Josh Ravin, because you love his upside? Or, do you give the spot to Carlos Fisher, because he's polished and almost big league ready? There is far less risk in Carlos Fisher, but there is far more upside in Josh Ravin.<br /><br />By and large, in creating this list, I chose upside over polish. When I look at Heisey, I see a Chris Denorfia type. Nothing wrong with that at all, but I just don't see a ton of value in 4th outfielders. Now, if he keeps crushing the ball in the minors like he has early on in 2009, then I'll have to reevaluate his chances as a starting outfielder. He's been very impressive thus far.<br /><br />As for Oliveras, he's intrigued me just enough to keep an eye on during his career. He's young and is more projection than production at this point. Still, if everything breaks right and he reaches his ceiling, I think he could be more than a 4th outfielder. That said, he's a longshot. Heisey is much more likely to have an MLB career, than Oliveras, but I went with the guy who might have a chance to be more than a 4th outfielder if all goes well.<br /><br />Now, if I had it to do all over again, I might have gone with Heisey or one of the other guys who just missed instead of Oliveras. Obviously,. the two guys who you won't find on any other top 25 lists are Ravin and Oliveras. Both are gut feel guys, but I'm higher on Ravin than Oliveras.<br /><br />Even so, there really isn't TOO much difference between #25 and #30 on these lists, so I went with my gut and wrote about the lesser known Oliveras. Oliveras took a step forward in 2008, but he needs to take another big one in 2009 to avoid slipping off the list.<br /><br />If I had it to do all over again, I might have gone with Heisey. On Oliveras, I probably placed too much emphasis on upside and not enough on polish. There may be too much risk there to justify a #25 ranking, but sometimes you just have to listen to your gut. :)<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-36872341527352345082009-04-27T08:38:00.000-07:002009-04-27T08:38:00.000-07:00pretty good list lark
i love the depth of our far...pretty good list lark<br /><br />i love the depth of our farm system as there are still several players you could put in this other notables section. its looking like we have a good future<br /><br />one question though, why do you consider oliveras a better prospect than heisey? I always thought heisey had much better tools and hasn't struggled as much but that's just my opinion, great list as always keep it goingsmittynoreply@blogger.com