tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post5275562630679814121..comments2023-10-20T06:12:38.934-07:00Comments on Redlegs Baseball: 2010 Top Prospect List: #12 J.C. Sulbaran, rhpLark11http://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-4852267881393442672010-02-26T07:20:22.512-08:002010-02-26T07:20:22.512-08:00Anon,
It does seem like the kind of wind-up trigg...Anon,<br /><br />It does seem like the kind of wind-up trigger that you see in pony league ball. Obviously, he's comfortable with it and it works for him, but he does need to tighten up his mechanics. Between starts and side sessions is where he'll have to do the majority of the work. His upside is significant, if he can gain more consistency. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-30160697169155951892010-02-26T07:09:36.212-08:002010-02-26T07:09:36.212-08:00Will,
Great list. I love the MLB comps. I have c...Will, <br /><br />Great list. I love the MLB comps. I have considered doing that myself, but haven't gotten around to doing it. I would love to see Chris Heisey become Mark Kotsay, who was an incredibly underrated talent. <br /><br />Interesting to see your ranking on Hamilton. Man, I went back and forth on that guy. He's got a wider range of ceiling and floor than any prospect in the system. <br /><br />As for Leake, I don't see the Tim Hudson comp either. Hudson was absurdly dominant when he first arrived. His splitter was ridiculous. I'm not sure Leake has that kind of dominance in his game. <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-75027764444691800342010-02-26T07:02:57.811-08:002010-02-26T07:02:57.811-08:00Anons,
Unfortunately, I just don't have as mu...Anons,<br /><br />Unfortunately, I just don't have as much time as I would like to do these write-ups, which is slowing me down. Professionally, I'm at a different place than I was when I did last year's write-ups. I thought that would give me more free time to write them up, but it's actually been just the opposite. So, I get them done as quickly as possible, but I do need to pick up the pace to get these done before the season starts. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-46876643188652119712010-02-25T22:06:21.215-08:002010-02-25T22:06:21.215-08:00#6 - Zack Cozart - A young SS who has average to s...#6 - Zack Cozart - A young SS who has average to slightly above tools both offensively and defensively is a really nice prospect to have. Really just need to see him continue to improve at the plate and grow physically and he should be an above average starting SS.<br /><br />Major League Comp - I see him as a guy somewhere between Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy.<br /><br />#7 - Travis Wood - A young, athletic LHP with again the right mix of talent and intangibles. Doesn't have a real high ceiling due to an average fastball and a small stature. Should slot in as a cheap but better than adequate #4 or #5 pitcher.<br /><br />Major League Comp - Ah, real tough guy to comp. This isn't a good one but a smallish starting LHP who is athletic and throws a nasty change up and I recall once upon a time Chris Hammond but with a better overall arsenal stuff wise.<br /><br /># 8 - Yorman Rodriguez - Maybe the highest ceiling in the organization and at a position of higher significance (CF). The traditional 5 tool freak who has speed, power and glove and playing in rookie ball at 16 and holding his own is serious. The only reason he is this low is due to his age (17) and distance from the show.<br /><br />Major League Comp - Good grief, tough to tell at this stage but early comps included guys like Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. <br /><br />#9 - Billy Hamilton - If Yorman isn't the highest ceiling then this guy is. A very raw 5 tool athletic freak who has the talent to stay at SS and be well above average both offensively and defensively. Has a lot of work to do on his skillset from both aspects.<br /><br />Major League Comp - Jose Reyes might be his ceiling if he stays at short. High expectations but a real long way to go.<br /><br />#10 - Neftali Soto - Strong bat and one with plenty of room to develop further. Defensive position is a real bear to figure out what with his limitations at an already young age, but holding out hope he sticks at 3rd or makes the transition to catcher. Needs some work and patience but I like his future.<br /><br />Major League Comp - I want to say Aramis Ramirez but I think that's hoping for alot to happen so I'll just go with a wait and see approach here.<br /><br />Noticeable absence - Juan Francisco - I just think he has flaws which will likely turn out to be too great to overcome, but his ceiling is top 5 worthy.<br /><br />WillAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-86617804572730024362010-02-25T22:05:37.854-08:002010-02-25T22:05:37.854-08:00#1 - Aroldis Chapman - 21, LH, has 3 plus pitches ...#1 - Aroldis Chapman - 21, LH, has 3 plus pitches (off and on) and is polished enough to make the Reds think he has any chance at all to start the season in the bigs, need I say more?<br /><br />Major League Comp - Hate to say it but Randy Johnson is the most similiar type of player but the big unit had 7 more inches of leverage to work with.<br /><br />#2 - Yonder Alonso - Highest ceiling in the minors outside of rookie ball and below. Potential LH middle of the order bat who profiles to hit for power (despite his temporary hamate bone issue),avg, discipline. Mediocre defensive chops is a minor concern however so did Pujols (amongst others) once upon a time. Splits vs. LHP aren't real good yet but he's shown flashes of hitting them and his approach is sound, just a matter of reps.<br /><br />Major League Comp - In my mind he's Andres Galaragga like. Very late bloomer with the power but was a doubles machine.<br /><br />#3 - Todd Frazier - Not an elite ceiling but the type of player every winning team needs. Has some quirkiness in his swing but it hasn't effected him yet so perhaps it won't be an issue going forward. Still likely to make him a bit vulnerable to the inside FB, however he's a pull hitter so the pitcher better hit his spot. <br /><br />Major League Comp - His game and intangibles to me scream Mike Lowell. I think his future is at 3B and I see him giving a team similiar overall production.<br /><br />#4 - Mike Leake - A pattern emerging here with Reds prospects, polish, knowledge of the game, competitors who play to win the game. Nothing not to like about Leake except he's not likely a #1 guy but a guy who should give you 200 innings for many years and keep you in most every game. <br /><br />Major League Comp - Lots of people say Tim Hudson and while I see where they are coming from I see him more like Bronson Arroyo but with a bit better stuff and earlier in his career. Also already armed with the sinker that Bronson has just recently figured out. If you like the Bronson of the last couple of seasons. A likely #3 innings eater who will win more than lose.<br /><br />#5 - Chris Heisey - Not one plus tool but most tools (maybe all tools) average to slightly above. Solid defender, runner, arm, hits for solid avg., solid power, solid discipline, intelligent with good intangibles. Can play all 3 OF positions adequately or better. There are higher ceiling types but I like Heisey's odds of filling his role.<br /><br />Major League Comp - Used to compare him to Mark Kotsay but now he kind of has grown out of a full time borderline gold glove capable CF. But now I see him as a Melky Cabrera type a good guy to have playing LF or as the 4th OF who can do it all. <br /><br />WillAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-68893082599587920382010-02-25T22:04:03.036-08:002010-02-25T22:04:03.036-08:00He's on guy people and i'm sure he has a l...He's on guy people and i'm sure he has a life outside of bloggin', sometimes ya just gotta take a break. Not to mention you won't find better in depth reports anywhere on the internet those take time when you are doing most of your own analysis.<br /><br />How's about folks throw out there top 10 so we have something to discuss in the meantime. I'll start.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-16641720238242392182010-02-25T12:51:54.792-08:002010-02-25T12:51:54.792-08:00I agree. These reports keep comeing later and late...I agree. These reports keep comeing later and later every time. whats the deal. At this rate it will be the all star break before we see your number one rated prospect.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-76663196350443818922010-02-25T07:34:32.201-08:002010-02-25T07:34:32.201-08:0010 days? come on.10 days? come on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-32595027927665611352010-02-22T23:10:32.748-08:002010-02-22T23:10:32.748-08:00Hmmm sounds like how the kids in pony league/babe ...Hmmm sounds like how the kids in pony league/babe ruth and little league start the delivery. <br />Maybe needs some coaching up and work outside of games then.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-20255897681853752422010-02-22T20:51:46.021-08:002010-02-22T20:51:46.021-08:00Will,
Yeah, I just got my Baseball America Prospe...Will,<br /><br />Yeah, I just got my Baseball America Prospect handbook and here is one of the quotes on Sulbaran:<br /><br />"He sometimes sits at 89-92 with his lively fastball and complements it with a plus curveball and an average change-up. But at other times, he struggles to top 90 mph, fails to locate his curveball, and an average change-up."<br /><br />So, obviously, he's still young and inconsistent from start to start and even pitch to pitch. And, I think we did a good job of flushing out the reasons for it. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-68506311761942886172010-02-21T23:48:06.642-08:002010-02-21T23:48:06.642-08:00Not me but who wrote that but according to Doug Gr...Not me but who wrote that but according to Doug Gray (Dougdirt on RZ)he saw Sulbaran throwing some games (the whole game) in the 86-88 range but also saw him throwing some games in the 87-90 range as well. As he says and I agree 100+ innings on a new young arm from the HS ranks (HS age) is a normal thing and hopefully thru development via mechanics and/or physical growth he'll maintain what he used to throw or better. I think he'll be fine in this regard.<br /><br /><br />WillAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-19045166974473153432010-02-16T23:01:24.439-08:002010-02-16T23:01:24.439-08:00Anon,
Thanks for the info. Just out of curiosity,...Anon,<br /><br />Thanks for the info. Just out of curiosity, when did you see those two games? Were they late in the season when his arm was tired? Spaced out over a couple of months? I haven't heard that his velocity was down at 88 mph consistently, so I'm curious if there is an explanation for the velocity readings you saw. <br /><br />Thanks,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-64833593422085974292010-02-16T22:54:48.867-08:002010-02-16T22:54:48.867-08:00Will,
Yeah, even Sulbaran's inconsistencies a...Will,<br /><br />Yeah, even Sulbaran's inconsistencies are inconsistent. His landing spot, how he lands, how much he falls off to the 1b-side, his arm slot, etc. etc. etc. <br /><br />As for his cross-fire delivery, I think you've got a point. I think we've talked about this before, maybe in the Tuttle write up. When you are throwing across your body, then you are cutting yourself short. Tuttle tried to overcome it by "standing up" in his delivery, while Sulbaran has to work around it. <br /><br />On Sulbaran, I do think a longer stride would force him to get better extension and follow-through to get out over his front leg. On the other hand, he could also improve his extension by opening up his stride and not blocking himself. It seems like two different ways to address/resolve the same problem. <br /><br />When I look at pitching mechanics, I'm looking at it largely from an efficiency standpoint. Basically, getting as much output/velocity from as little work/effort as possible. You need to be able to generate the velocity/power to succeed at the MLB level, but you need to be able to generate it without being overtaxed to the point of breaking down. <br /><br />From the start of the wind-up to the apex of the leg kick, it is all about creating and storing potential energy. When unpacking the leg kick and beginning the drive to the plate, it becomes all about transferring that energy to the baseball. <br /><br />And, by and large, every mechanical flaw acts as a drag on efficiency. Either it prevents you from generating optimal velocity or it increases the effort required to attain that optimal velocity. Either way, the worse the mechanics, the worse the efficiency. <br /><br />And, a loss of efficiency is what we are seeing in Sulbaran when his plant foot lands closer to third base, resulting in him being closed off in his delivery. Sulbaran has a high leg kick and coils his body, but he simply can't bring his momentum directly to the plate because of the position of his plant foot. His momentum has to come AROUND his plant leg, which is also why he falls off to the first base side. Instead of bringing his momentum/energy directly to the plate, it has to rotate around his plant leg. So, he becomes less efficient because he bleeds some of the momentum he generates in the rotational movement around his plant leg. <br /><br />I haven't heard too much about his attitude, but young prospects frequently have to mature and learn how to work. A lot of good young prospects have no idea how to work or what constitutes hard work. They have always been the best on the field and haven't had to work all that hard to achieve success. Still, once they get into the game and get around guys who have been around the block a time or two, they begin to get a sense for the work required to succeed. <br /><br />Sulbaran definitely has some work to do, but I suspect low-A brought him down to earth a bit after his success in international competition. Hopefully, he now understands the type of commitment professional baseball requires and brings that new knowledge to bear in 2010. <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-85756863129825203242010-02-16T21:59:31.349-08:002010-02-16T21:59:31.349-08:00Smitty,
While I've seen Sulbaran work, this ...Smitty, <br /><br />While I've seen Sulbaran work, this is the first time I've taken an in-depth look at his mechanics. And, to be honest, I was pretty surprised. Every time I took another look, something else jumped out at me, which is probably why this the longest "pitching mechanics" section I've ever written up. I'm still baffled by the right foot trigger to his delivery. In fact, part of me wonders if it is even against the rules. Probably not, but regardless I suppose it doesn't matter, as he only does it from the wind-up, so the danger of a balk is lessened. <br /><br />As for his ceiling, I do agree that it's probably that of a #2 starter. Also, I think you're right that he maintains good body control up until the apex of his leg kick. Still, he's got a long way to go and I do think he needs to refine his mechanics. On the plus side, a live arm with good arm-action makes up for a lot of sins. I'll be expecting better from him in 2010, but I do think he needs to tighten up his delivery to improve his command and control. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-47383572020872691742010-02-16T14:41:07.389-08:002010-02-16T14:41:07.389-08:00I saw Sulbaran pitch twice for dayton this year a...I saw Sulbaran pitch twice for dayton this year and was left unimpresed with his fastball toping out at 88 in both performinces.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-39515578465756940132010-02-16T11:02:52.127-08:002010-02-16T11:02:52.127-08:00Good stuff as always Lark. Having seen that video ...Good stuff as always Lark. Having seen that video I'd agree with your thoughts. What stands out to me also would be the cutting off of himself a bit with landing his plant foot to the 3rd base side (although even here he has a tendency to be inconsistent with his plant location at times). Also agree with the landing of the heel it seems to just throw him off a bit control wise. Don't really see a problem with his stride length though, I tend to think his cutting himself off isn't allowing for proper follow thru. <br /><br />The real problem with JC might be attitude. From what someone has intimated to me he has some growing up to do and it sounds like this might just be his biggest obstacle to whether or not he makes it. One telling issue ought to be these mechanics, if he does any improving on them well that is good sign IMO. <br /><br />All that said I like his arm, his demeanor and intensity he seems to bring to the mound. That usually bodes well for young pitchers if they can make it thru the injury nexus reasonably unscathed. I can see a good solid #3 type, not sure if he has the stuff to be better than that but he is still growing and learning so we will see. Heck by the time he reaches the bigs he could have a whole different arsenal.<br /><br />WillAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-18009673710120754062010-02-16T02:47:06.693-08:002010-02-16T02:47:06.693-08:00man when you were describing his delivery it sound...man when you were describing his delivery it sounded so wierd i couldnt picture it in my head, but watching the video i actually like his delivery. Yes, he needs some work on it but i like how he is nice and slow and in control until his leg reaches its peak then he explodes through the rest of it. That can really mess with a hitters timing. He does stand very tall through his windup but he looks like he does a good job keeping his weight back, Harang was having trouble with that particular problem. I really like sulbaran and see him as a number 2 pitcher if he reaches his potential. great post larksmittynoreply@blogger.com