tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post5930358711751105609..comments2023-10-20T06:12:38.934-07:00Comments on Redlegs Baseball: 2011 Top Prospect List: #17 Danny Dorn, 1b/ofLark11http://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-14053643339656655322011-01-05T23:20:59.815-08:002011-01-05T23:20:59.815-08:00Will,
All you want is Hanley at short? No problem...Will,<br /><br />All you want is Hanley at short? No problem! ;)<br /><br />As for Francisco, I agree across the board. I don't see "pitcher fear" driving his OBP up to a strong level. I wonder if keeping him on the 25-man roster in a reserve capacity is waving the white flag on his development and any hope that he can be a full-time starter. If so, it kills whatever trade value he had. <br /><br />As for Hermida, I hope GABP gets him back on track, because nothing else has worked. Interesting to see two pretty sharp organizations (Boston and Oakland) already take a recent flier on him. He seems to be filtering down the food chain a bit. Not encouraging that those organizations didn't think enough of him to keep him around. But, maybe there's still enough reward there to offset the minimal risk. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-77514102994606482472011-01-05T23:15:24.763-08:002011-01-05T23:15:24.763-08:00Smitty,
I agree, I prefer Dorn to Hermida, but th...Smitty,<br /><br />I agree, I prefer Dorn to Hermida, but the Reds long ago closed the book on Dorn. On the bright side, Hermida has a nice, line drive swing, but he simply hasn't hit much at all at the big league level. Even so, I have little doubt that the Reds prefer him to Dorn already. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-11092436266022781042011-01-04T22:33:16.803-08:002011-01-04T22:33:16.803-08:00honestly i like dorn more than hermida, he has sho...honestly i like dorn more than hermida, he has shown more powersmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-42802863069091547172011-01-04T15:19:12.992-08:002011-01-04T15:19:12.992-08:00Oh and BTW Dorns chances just got alot slimmer wit...Oh and BTW Dorns chances just got alot slimmer with the Jeremy Hermida signing. This is a kid I really like and think could blossom as a member of this Reds team. A Hermida/Heisey platoon could be very effective, think Jeremy's power plays really well in our division/park. Now if we could just get a real SS who can also handle top of the lineup duties or hit behind Votto (talking about you Hanley) we would be in there.Willnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-6103772827841363052011-01-04T15:13:41.829-08:002011-01-04T15:13:41.829-08:00My thoughts as well smitty the kid doesn't und...My thoughts as well smitty the kid doesn't understand the value of a walk and/or the temptation to swing is to strong to ignore. I have to admit that when I am playing a video game or even actually playing softball or something I have this burning desire to put bat on ball. Though I am far more patient than is Juan, lol. Some can overcome this desire others never seem to. I would suspect that those who do overcome this temptation are (for the most part) far younger and less progressed overall than Juan is.<br /><br />Some think it won't matter for Juan because they actually think he has this Vlad-Esque skill of being able to handle bad balls and thus will end up hitting for avg. anyway and coupled with his power will make up for a lack of discipline. They believe his OBP% will then rise because pitchers will want to pitch around him. I don't buy it but I guess we will see.Willnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-24009345159875008652011-01-04T12:02:19.360-08:002011-01-04T12:02:19.360-08:00I think he works the count until he realizes he is...I think he works the count until he realizes he is about to walk and then gets aggressive because he wants to get a hitsmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-34464185415023344722011-01-03T22:23:41.060-08:002011-01-03T22:23:41.060-08:00Will,
Yeah, we are of like mind on this one. I...Will,<br /><br />Yeah, we are of like mind on this one. I'd love to see what Dorn could do with an opportunity. Just one shot. <br /><br />Just for fun, I plugged Dorn's 2010 triple-A numbers into a Minor League Equivalency (MLE) calculator. Basically, it converts his triple-A production into the corresponding Major League production. Without further adieu, here is how Dorn's production would have translated: <br /><br />AB: 283<br />R: 39<br />H: 73<br />2b: 20<br />3b: 2<br />HR: 10<br />RBI: 36<br />K/BB: 86/30<br />BA/OBP/SLG: .259/.330/.450<br />SB/CS: 0/0<br /><br />The numbers don't blow your socks off, but they are more than respectable. And, they are better than Gomes (.266/.327/.431), especially since Dorn would undoubtedly be better on defense. <br /><br />As for Francisco, I tend to agree. I'm just not convinced that his offensive profile works at an offense-first position like leftfield or first base. But, he impressed Dusty in spring training and he's a Dusty type player. Swing, swing, and swing some more. <br /><br />Doug Gray made an interesting point that Francisco has actually gotten into a significant number of 3-ball counts. I'm not convinced that it's more than a sample size issue at this point, but so far in his big league career it does seem to be true. Still, given his poor career minor league OBP, I'm not convinced that it represents an actual skill. Why would he be patient enough to get into 3-ball counts, but not patient enough to draw walks? Seems like an issue that will be made moot by a larger sample size. <br /><br />Thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-45394636382515142022011-01-03T21:59:55.513-08:002011-01-03T21:59:55.513-08:00Smitty,
Ah, ok! I'm actually registered over ...Smitty,<br /><br />Ah, ok! I'm actually registered over on RedReporter and posted a couple of times. A good site with a lot of VERY knowledgeable Reds fans, but there just aren't enough hours in the day for me to visit all the good Reds' sites out there. But, I do have a link to RedReporter in the Interesting Things to Read section. <br /><br />Thanks for the heads-up!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-59693678942336049682011-01-03T16:21:41.496-08:002011-01-03T16:21:41.496-08:00Love Dorn always have hated that the Reds eschew h...Love Dorn always have hated that the Reds eschew high floor/mediocre ceiling for high ceiling/mediocre at best floor. However when given the chance Dorn hasn't proved himself. He absolutely has to get off to a good start in S/T to raise any eyebrows. <br /><br />All that said I'm in favor of a Lewis or even Podsednik signing. If I believed the Reds would give Dorn any real shot I would pass as well. But I would prefer a Heisey/Dorn platoon with Gomes a power supply off the bench or stating occasionally against tough LHP when we are scuffling. Gomes shouldn't get more than 200ish PA's IMO.<br /><br />I won't get started on Francisco, I still think he is a hacker doomed for failure who still has some value as trade bait but is just there withering on the vine. And his power is a bit overrated as well. Maybe someone should just tell Danny Dorn to swing from the heels on every pitch and he might get noticed too.Willnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-25049172732029859972011-01-03T15:13:24.178-08:002011-01-03T15:13:24.178-08:00END is a nickname for Francisco lark lol it stands...END is a nickname for Francisco lark lol it stands for El Nino Destructor. They use it over on redreporter, which is a great site btw you would love itsmittynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-75427660428606302752011-01-03T12:54:28.185-08:002011-01-03T12:54:28.185-08:00Matt McWax,
You've lost me on "END"...Matt McWax,<br /><br />You've lost me on "END". I must be having brain lock. It obviously refers to Francisco, but I'm missing the reference. <br /><br />Here's Dorn's 2009 season by month:<br /><br />April: .207/.250/.293<br />May: .213/.288/.394<br />June: .338/.370/.649<br />July: .291/.381/.418<br />August: .362/.422/.517<br /><br />So, he certainly did have a couple of nice months after a terrible start to the season. <br /><br />I really do wonder why the Reds value Francisco so much more highly than Dorn. I agree that Dorn is no slouch in the power department. Francisco probably has the best power in the system, but Dorn isn't exactly packing a pop-gun at the plate. And, any shortage in power is going to be made up for in OBP. <br /><br />I'm surprised that Dorn has been passed over in the Rule 5 draft, but I suppose most teams go after pitchers and don't view Dorn as having enough upside to make him worthy of a selection. <br /><br />Still, I think he deserves a shot, especially in light of the fact that Dorn can handle a good fastball and knows the strikezone, so I don't think he'd be over-matched at the big league level. <br /><br />I, too, am in favor of a roster spot for Dorn, but it looks like that spot will go to Scotty Podsednik or Fred Lewis. <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-78981925246421882782011-01-03T10:50:18.223-08:002011-01-03T10:50:18.223-08:00The minorleaguesplits site is being reworked so I ...The minorleaguesplits site is being reworked so I can't remember exactly, but I think Dorn's 2009 second half looked alot like his 2010. Also, while I have supported END for the most part, I could see Dorn's actual power production being similar to his at the major league level, because top pitchers should be able to throw Juan what he can't handle. Sadly, we will be facing a lot of good pitchers in our division. Juan has definitely risen to challenges and his age as you said is a factor, so you never know, but I am still in favor of a roster spot for Dorn.Matt McWaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12511586966223130575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-10481518607448863352011-01-02T23:50:32.645-08:002011-01-02T23:50:32.645-08:00Vottofan,
I would love to add more speed and a so...Vottofan,<br /><br />I would love to add more speed and a solid OBP to the leadoff slot. Unfortunately, I'm just not convinced that Scotty Pods is the one to do it. He'll be 35 at the beginning of the 2011 season and his stolen base percentage has been unacceptably low as of late. Add in the fact that his defense in leftfield has slipped to below average and I just don't see him as an upgrade. <br /><br />Personally, I'd rather give Dorn the opportunity. But, setting Dorn aside, we still have Francisco, Frazier, Heisey, Sappelt, and others who would likely provide better production at a significantly lower price. Of course, GMs love the cover provided by established veterans, even if the production they provide isn't an upgrade. <br /><br />Overall, the Reds would seem to have significantly better in house options than Scotty Pods. My $.02. <br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-68412811509293819432011-01-02T19:06:31.780-08:002011-01-02T19:06:31.780-08:00I have heard on MLBTR that the Reds could get Pose...I have heard on MLBTR that the Reds could get Posednik. Thoughts?vottofanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16421415907828123940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-44770250000018968512011-01-01T23:49:03.156-08:002011-01-01T23:49:03.156-08:00Smitty,
Yeah, a Gomes/Dorn platoon would be intri...Smitty,<br /><br />Yeah, a Gomes/Dorn platoon would be intriguing, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see Dorn run with the opportunity when/if he gets it. He's a good hitter and GABP is a hitter's park. He can handle good fastballs and knows how to control the zone. He's a well-rounded hitter and I could see him slotting into the #2 spot in the lineup nicely.<br /><br />He may never be more than a nice bat off the bench and backup leftfielder/first baseman. If he actually gets his shot, it really wouldn't shock me to see him prove otherwise. Personally, I have no doubt that he would be an improvement in leftfield over what Jonny Gomes provided in 2010. Of course, I suppose that's not saying all that much.<br /><br />But, ultimately, he may be a Matt Murton type of player. Probably good enough to hold down a starting gig for at least a few years, but never quite landing in the right situation to do it. Teams are always going to be tempted to bypass these fringe starters in favor of players with higher ceilings or more tools, especially at the positions at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.<br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the comment!<br /><br />Best,<br />LarkLark11https://www.blogger.com/profile/06571198327064220683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6347536209014288641.post-21822622274615576942011-01-01T15:12:33.149-08:002011-01-01T15:12:33.149-08:00I wouldnt mind seeing him platoon with someone, bu...I wouldnt mind seeing him platoon with someone, but i dont think he would ever be a great startersmittynoreply@blogger.com