"With the 27th overall pick, the Reds (*should*) select..."

...Chris Anderson, rhp from Jacksonville University." 

For me, Anderson has the best bundle of attributes outside of the top tier of pitchers in the draft class. He has very clean mechanics, the makings of two plus pitches, a reasonably high floor, and enough projection to make him a legitimate top of the rotation starter if his development breaks right. If the medicals check out, then I'm willing to chalk up his rough stretch to fatigue and overuse. The only problem I see is the decent likelihood that he'll be off the board by the time the Reds select, but there is so much uncertainty, even at the top, in this draft that it's difficult to know who will slide down to the Reds pick. For that reason, the impressive Anderson sits atop my board, but Billy McKinney, who sits second on my board, might be the more realistic option.

McKinney is more than just a mere fallback option. I love the swing, which is pure and powerful. He should hit for both average and power in the professional ranks. His defense is a work in progress, but the bat is worth the gamble. He'd be a very good addition to the farm system and might be able to hit the ground running like another high school bat, Jesse Winker, did before him.

Here is what my draft board, based on who is reasonably likely to be available, looks like:


1. Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University
2. Billy McKinney, OF, Plano West H.S. (TEX)
3. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State
4. Eric Jagielo, 3b/of, Notre Dame
5. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford University


Given that the Reds have overall picks #27, #38, and #67, the best case scenario would be to land two players off the above list of five with their first two picks. Admittedly, I'm hoping that one of the top two is available, but I also have a good feeling about Aaron Judge. He's a very tall player, which can be problematic, but his athleticism may ultimately turn his size into asset instead of a liability. If that happens, he could be a true impact player. As for the remaining two, Jagielo and Wilson, both have some swing issues that concern me. To me, Jagielo has the higher floor, but Wilson the higher ceiling. It's just difficult to know what you have in Wilson and his swing needs more refinement than Jagielo's. Still, Wilson is the best lottery ticket in this draft. He's a boom-or-bust type pick, bringing the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any of the 5 guys on my board. If you draft him and get him right, then you could have a legitimate middle order of the bat who creates defensive value as well. That would be massive value.

Outside of those five, there are a couple of others players I'd like to see the Reds snatch up if they have the chance.

I like the swing mechanics and hit tool that 2b/3b Cavan Biggio brings to the table. He's a likely tweener, so you'd have to gamble that the hit tool and/or defensive ability will develop enough to warrant making room for him in the lineup somewhere, but the bat may be strong enough for that to happen. Ideally, the Reds could snap him up in the 3rd or 4th round, but early rumors suggest the Astros could be giving him serious consideration with the 40th overall pick at the top of the 2nd round. Is he worth a roll of the dice with the 38th overall pick or is that an overdraft that would undercut his value? For me, it depends somewhat on whether any of the previous 5 are still on the board at 38. I'd be more comfortable with Biggio in 2nd round or later, but the Reds could use more pure hitters in the system. And, doubling up on pure hitters with McKinney in round 1 and Biggio with a later pick would be an intriguing option for the Reds.

Finally, I'm really intrigued by Stanford rhp A.J. Vanegas. The Reds have had very good success developing pitchers lately and A.J. could be another college reliever worth developing as a starter. He has very good velocity and developing secondary stuff. He needs to improve his command, which may require smoothing out his arm swing, but he could be an intriguing option in the 3rd or 4th round, especially if the Reds go position player heavy with the first few picks. If Vanegas can improve his command and stay healthy, then he could be a very good value and an impact pitcher for the Reds.

Well, the draft gets under way tonight, so it'll be fun to see how it shakes out. There seems to be far less certainty to this draft, even at the very top (though I think Mark Appel is the clear top player), than in years passed, so I have no idea how it'll all shake out. Still, there is some intriguing talent there for the Reds, though, generally speaking, I like the bats likely to be available more than the arms, and that competitive balance pick could be a huge boost to the farm system. A clear reason for the Reds recent success is competent work in the draft. They need to continue that trend tonight.

Anyway, that's all the news that's fit to print. Go Reds Go!!!!!

2013 Draft: Other Players of Interest

Here are a few quick thoughts on other players who caught my eye:


Kyle Serrano RHP -- Farragut H.S. (TENN)

Serrano is an intriguing arm. His best pitch is a plus curveball, but he also has a solid fastball that sits in the 90-94 range. He only stands 6-0 and weighs 185 lbs, so he's a bit on the short side for a starting pitcher and would likely benefit from adding more muscle to his frame.

Mechanically, Serrano is fairly solid. He has a clean arm action and fundamentally sound mechanics. He uses a closed off stride and, consequently, a cross-fire delivery. His slightly closed off landing position and spine angle during hip rotation reminds me somewhat of Tim Lincecum. Though, unfortunately, he doesn't have the type of electric stuff that Lincecum possessed entering the draft.

The downside to Serrano is that his physical build and level of velocity may limit his ultimate upside. I'm just not sure how much projection is left to his game. Further, Serrano may be one of the tougher signs in the draft class, as he has committed to the University of Tennessee, where he would pitch for his father, the Volunteer head coach.

Given the possible signability concerns and lesser projection to his game, there are other options in the draft that I'd rather have. So, Serrano falls just short of making my draft board, though his mechanics are clean and his curveball impressive.


A.J. Vanegas RHP -- Stanford University

Vanegas is a very intriguing arm. He stands 6-3 and tips the scales at 215 lbs. He pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen for the Cardinal during his college career, though his stuff has always been impressive enough to start.

Vanegas features a mid to upper 90s fastball, a slider, and a cutter. He needs to develop his arsenal and polish his control in the professional ranks, but he generates easy velocity and has good projection to his game.

As a junior, Vanegas, due to a back injury, worked only 8.2 innings in which he posted a 3.12 ERA with a 12/4 K/BB ratio. For his career, Vanegas has posted a solid 2.92 ERA to go with underwhelming ratios, including marks of 4.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9.


Here's a look at Vanegas in action, courtesy of rkyosh007 on YouTube:





Overall, the mechanics are smooth and fundamentally sound. He does a nice job driving his delivery straight back and straight through to the plate. I'd like to see a bigger differential between the rotation of the hips and the rotation of the shoulders. A longer delay in the rotation of the shoulders would maximize the force generated by the body and increase the efficiency of the transfer of force to the baseball. Another possible issue I see is that he elevates his pitching elbow a tick too high relative to the pitching shoulder and, as a result, is slightly late in getting his pitching arm up into proper throwing position. It remains to be seen whether it would be detrimental to his performance going forward, but if necessary the arm action in the back could be smoothed out in the minors.

The Reds have had success in recent years with drafting relievers, or pitchers projected to be relievers, and developing them as starting pitchers. Vanegas could be the next in line. He's projected to go around the 3rd round in the draft, which could make him a steal if his future organization can unleash the raw potential that he brings to the table.

I'm really intrigued by A.J. Vanegas. His mechanics aren't as clean as I like, but given that he's only  projected to go in rounds 2/3/4 in the draft you have to expect, and be willing to incur, a bit more risk. His upside is intriguing and a possible conversion to the rotation could make a very valuable prospect.


Cavan Biggio 2b/3b -- St. Thomas H.S. (TEX)

Cavan is the son of Craig Biggio. There's no questioning his bloodlines. He also has an impressive hit tool. The problem with Cavan is that he may be a "tweener". Not enough bat for a corner position, not enough glove for an up-the-middle position. Biggio also isn't a great runner. So, the intrigue here is really the bat.

At the plate, Biggio has a very smooth lefthanded swing, a good feel for hitting, and the ability to control the strikezone. He makes consistent, hard contact and can get the barrel on the ball. He doesn't have plus power, but he's a pure hitter. He stands 6-2 and weighs 180 lbs, so there is some power projection in his game and filling out physically could make him an impact hitter.

Here's a look at Cavan Biggio in action, courtesy of Steve Fiorindo on YouTube:





Overall, Biggio has a sweet, fundamentally sound swing. He uses very strong hip rotation and has good hands. After loading his hands, he has a short path to the ball, getting to the point of impact quickly. He also effectively utilizes some "bat lag", a positive component of the swing that refers to the barrel of the bat lagging behind the hands in the swing. The longer the hitter can maintain that lag, the more power will be generated by the swing. When the bat emerges from the lag position, the barrel comes around and into the point of contact. Biggio maintains a slightly smaller "lag angle" than the average hitter, giving his swing a slightly steeper, more direct, angle of attack, due in part to a more straight line, rather than rounded, hand arc.

I'm impressed by Biggio's swing mechanics and hit tool. He seems to have a good feel for hitting. The question is how much power projection is there in his game? And, how much defensive value will he have?

There's a reason not many amateur 2bs are drafted. Most of time shortstop prospects are drafted instead, with those short on arm shifted to 2b and those short on range shifted to 3b. Biggio is currently a 2b. There's a real risk that, as he climbs the ladder, Biggio won't hit enough given his likely landing point on the defensive spectrum.

Cavan Biggio is the type of prospect with which the St.Louis Cardinals have had good success. Identifying and developing pure hitters despite questions about their defensive ability. I'm not sure if they are better at identifying these types of prospects or better at developing them. It could be either, but Biggio is one on whom I would support the Reds taking a chance. He lacks his father's athleticism, but I believe in the bat.