Monday, August 1, 2016

Actual Draft vs. "Shadow Draft": A Retrospective

One of the fun parts of the baseball offseason is that we get a break from the day-to-day grind of the season, which affords us some time to reflect, clean out the closet, and dust off old thoughts for re-examination. So, it's probably a good time to revisit my "shadow draft picks" of the past.

Starting in 2005, when draft time rolled around, I began to analyze the draft eligible prospects and determine which one I would select if I was in charge of the Reds draft. It was a fun exercise and an intellectual challenge.

In short, these picks are what I would have done at the time of each draft, not what I would have done with the benefit of perfect hindsight. So, not surprisingly, there are both significant hits and misses, but the picks are what they are. No sense trying to sweep the bad ones under the rug, rather I've tried to learn from my missteps and use that experience in the future.

Of course, I didn't start this blog until 2007, so my draft thoughts existed only on message boards until the 2008 draft rolled around, but I'm including those early message board picks anyway for posterity sake. Besides, it makes the post that much more fun.

Anyway, the Reds' picks are in red, while my picks are in orange. The comments on these picks are based on thoughts, impressions, and evaluations at the time of each respective draft. Basically, historical snapshots from the time of those respective drafts. Given how the fortunes of minor league prospects can change substantially from year-to-year, that's really the only way to do it. The 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts happened prior to the existence of this blog, so I have tried to recreate my thoughts and industry evaluations as they existed at the time of those drafts.

Anyway, all that said, away we go.....

2005: Jay Bruce vs. Ricky Romero

This was the first time I really looked into the draft and picked the player I wanted the Reds to select. Of course, those with a sharp eye and a keen memory will recall that Ricky Romero was selected 6th by the Blue Jays, while the Reds didn't select Jay Bruce until their 12th overall pick rolled around. So, in my first effort, there were clearly a few kinks to be worked out, as I selected a player the Reds couldn't possibly have drafted. In future years, I only selected a player that was actually available to the Reds with their first pick, but I'm including this one anyway.

The 2005 draft was an epic one, filled with potential impact talent from the top of the first round all the way down to the bottom. You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting at least a couple of legitimate impact prospects.

I followed Ricky Romero at Cal State Fullerton and loved his bulldog mentality and offspeed offerings. He had a nice curveball and a quality changeup. He also had a good understanding of how to pitch. He was the guy I wanted the perennially pitching-starved Reds to land. Of course, Romero was already off the board by the time the Reds went in another direction.

The Reds selected Jay Bruce, who seems a quality player on the field and a quality person off it. He had very good bat speed and was viewed as a potential impact hitter from the state of Texas.

2006: Drew Stubbs vs. Tim Lincecum

In the 2006 draft class, there was only one player I wanted the Reds to draft and that was Tim Lincecum.

For me, despite his short stature, Tim Lincecum was head-and-shoulders above the rest. Baseball America rated him as having the best fastball and the best offspeed pitch among all the draft eligible college pitchers. Additionally, he struck out everybody at the University of Washington, posting strike out rates of 12.9, 11.3, and 14.3 respectively in his three years there. He was clearly the most electric pitcher in the draft and had a massive upside.

There were two main knocks against Lincecum heading into that draft: his mechanics and his height. Personally, I've always loved his mechanics. They're complicated, but he throws with his body better than the vast majority of pitchers. And, as for height, I'm not a fan of the scouting bias against short righthanded pitchers. If you can pitch, then you can pitch, regardless of height. Lincecum is the guy I wanted and he was on the board when the Reds picked. Unfortunately, the Reds went in another direction, selecting Drew Stubbs with the 8th overall pick.

Stubbs had a lot of tools and very good athleticism. It was easy to see the Reds buying into the notion that he could develop into a dual threat, impacting the game on offense and defense. While Stubbs had a full toolbox, he was somewhat lacking in baseball specific skills.

2007: Devin Mesoraco vs. Pete Kozma

The Reds used the 15th overall pick on Devin Mesoraco, the Cardinals selected shortstop Pete Kozma with the 18th overall pick.

Heading into the draft, few prospects had as much helium as Devin. Coming from a cold weather region and off a TJ surgery, Mesoraco wasn't projected to be a first rounder due to a lack of experience and limited exposure, but a strong senior season propelled him up the ranks.

Kozma was more of a high floor, low ceiling type player. He lacked any real plus tools, but had some nice skills and a good feel for the game, which in a somewhat less than inspiring draft class seemed to be a decent option.

2008: Yonder Alonso vs. Casey Kelly

In the first shadow pick of the blog era, I selected Casey Kelly here and here. I prefer Kelly as a shortstop and want to see what he can do with a couple of years as a full-time position player. He has good baseball bloodlines, plus athleticism, plays plus defense at short, and has solid pop in his bat.

That said, the hit tool is in question and he'll need to demonstrate the ability to consistently barrel-up pitches. However, the heightened risk in the hit tool can be mitigated, to a degree, by his ability to pitch. To me, having pitching as a fallback plan is a nice way to manage the performance risk that comes with his hit tool. There is an old scouting adage that you don't gamble on a questionable "hit tool" in the first round, but I'm clearly breaking that rule here.

It's not easy to find a potentially plus defensive shortstop who can hold his own on offense. Kelly already has decent pop, so it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibilities that he could develop into a capable hitter at the professional level.

The Reds drafted Yonder Alonso with the 7th overall pick.

As it stands, Yonder looks like a nice, well-rounded hitter with good on-base skills and solid power potential. He seems to be a polished, rather low risk selection. Clearly, he's the player the Reds deemed the "best available", but it remains unclear how exactly he fits into the organizational plans.

Obviously, Joey Votto has already emerged as a good, young first baseman with a strong offensive profile. Clearly, first base isn't an area of need and Yonder isn't a realistically going to switch defensive positions. So, there's a chance that he's blocked as soon as he steps into the organization, which might be a problem given that he might be able to climb the ladder quickly.

2009: Mike Leake vs. Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller was, without question, the guy I wanted the Reds to take, as he struck me as being the pitcher with the best combination of stuff and mechanics in the draft. I loved the velocity and how cleanly he generated it.  In fact, I have him pegged as the third best prospect in the draft behind Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley. There were other high school pitchers who were rated, and ultimately drafted, higher, including Zach Wheeler (6th SFG) Jacob Turner (9th DET), Tyler Matzek (11th COL), and Matt Purke (14th TEX), but I prefer Miller to all of them. His upside is just too massive for me to view anyone else as a legitimate option.

The Reds went a different direction with the 8th overall pick, drafting Arizona State RHP Mike Leake. I still prefer Miller, but the pick has started to grow on me. Leake had very good success at ASU, based on his plus athleticism and feel for pitching, which combine to give him good polish.

The Reds, it seems, valued Leake's higher floor/lower ceiling over Miller's lower floor/higher ceiling. In the end, it comes down to the likelihood that Miller will reach his ceiling and be significantly better than Mike Leake at the MLB level. If he can, then he is clearly the better pick, but there's more development risk with Shelby.

2010: Yasmani Grandal vs. Chris Sale

In the 2010 draft, Chris Sale was actually the first prospect on whom I did in-depth research and a full write-up, and he was ultimately the guy I wanted the Reds to land.

His fastball and changeup were both rated among the very best of the draft eligible college pitchers. His strikeout and walk rates were among the very best in the country, so you had both upside and polish. There were/are some questions about his arm action, but I never saw anything overly worrisome. Some thought there was too much snap in his arm action, but I don't really see it. Some thought his higher-back elbow, which rises above shoulder level, would be problematic, but I thought the increased injury risk created by that time of move would be nullified by his lower arm slot. I would like to see him incorporate more leg drive, but overall I was comfortable with his mechanics. After I was done looking into the draft pool, Sale was still sitting comfortably atop my list.

The Reds used the 12th overall pick on Yasmani Grandal, who is the second Miami Hurricane the organization has selected with its first pick in the last three drafts. Obviously, they feel comfortable with their scouting coverage down there.

The selection of Grandal gives the Reds some of the best catching depth in all of the minor leagues, as he could develop into a solid defensive catcher and an impact switch hitter. It'll be interesting to see how he performs in full season ball and where he fits into an organization where Devin Mesoraco is making a big splash much farther up the ladder. Given Grandal's polish, his career is very likely to overlap with Mesoraco's at the Major League Level. Once again, the Reds could have a blocked Hurricane in the system.

2011: Robert Stephenson vs. Jason Esposito

Well, for the first time since I've started doing these draft write-ups the Reds had a pick outside the top 15. In fact, they had number 27 overall, which makes it more challenging to find impact talent. However, given the impressive depth of talent in the 2011 draft class, the Reds were able to land a high upside arm that undoubtedly would have gone higher in the typical draft class.

Stephenson stands 6-2 and tips the scale at 190 lbs with a wiry frame and plus makeup/intelligence. He features a big time fastball that tickles 97 mph on the radar gun and a biting, 12-to-6 curveball that is inconsistent. And, like seemingly all power arms coming out of high school, he has a mediocre change-up.

The only potential red flag on Stephenson is his pitching mechanics, which are somewhat inefficient due to a shorter stride, less than ideal hip rotation, and an occasionally cutting short the deceleration of his pitching arm.

That said, Stephenson has a great deal of positives going for him and the Reds probably did very well, as you don't frequently get this type of upside so late in the draft. The stuff and makeup are there, but he'll need to refine his mechanics and continue to polish his secondary offerings as he climbs the ladder. Still, hard to argue with, or be disappointed by, this pick by the Reds and, frankly, it'll be difficult to top.  

My shadow pick, 3b Jason Esposito, will be seen as a stretch by many and admittedly it may well be, but he was behind RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Chris Reed, and RHP Jose Fernandez on my draft queue and I was fully expecting one of those pitchers to be available.

Esposito's junior season was a bit of a step backward and he slipped down in the draft, which serves as a cautionary tale that you can't expect linear improvement/development from college players. The knocks on Esposito were two fold: (1) his swing was mechanical and (2) he added weight to the lower half.

Admittedly, I can see the reason for concern on both issues. Esposito has a well balanced, fundamentally sound swing, but it can look mechanical at times. He also did look slightly stockier in his junior season than he did as a sophomore, but the added weight to the lower half doesn't diminish his potential to be a plus defender at third with a very good arm.

Overall, Esposito's potentially above average to plus defense at the hot corner might offset the higher risk in his bat.

2012: Nick Travieso vs. Matthew Smoral

Southpaw Matthew Smoral was not only at the top of my wish list for the Reds (which also included shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder David Dahl), but also one of my favorite pitchers in the draft class. So, he was my clear choice when the Reds' 14th overall pick rolled around, but the organization ultimately went with a different high school pitcher, righthander Nick Travieso. So, this one boils down to a battle of the high school pitchers, which makes it far too early to call, especially since Smoral didn't throw a pitch in anger in 2012.

Smoral slipped in the draft because he missed his senior season due to a stress fracture of the foot, limiting the time for organizations to get a feel for him. Regardless, I was sufficiently impressed by the combination of stuff, clean pitching mechanics, and physical stature. All of those factors struck me as giving him a very high ceiling. Although, it didn't factor into my decision, another thumb on the scale in Smoral's favor is that he was drafted out of an Ohio high school.

As for Nick Travieso, he had quite a bit of helium heading into the draft, largely as a result of a spike in velocity. That spike drove his fastball velocity up into the mid-90s, but velocity spikes aren't always sustainable and occasionally are precursors to injury. His secondary offerings are largely unrefined, which, when coupled with the high degree of effort in his delivery, led many to project him as a reliever at the upper levels. Even so, he's an intriguing arm to add to the quality stable of pitching prospects in the system and a bit more development time could bear out the organization's decision to select him with the 14th overall pick.

As high school pitching prospects, Travieso and Smoral both come with significant inherent risk (injury and performance), but both also have significant upside.

2013: Phil Ervin vs. Aaron Judge

My shadow draft pick for the Reds in the 2013 draft was Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge. Judge was third on my draft queue, which consisted of RHP Chris Anderson, OF Billy McKinney, OF Aaron Judge, 3b Eric Jagielo, and OF Austin Wilson.  The Dodgers grabbed Anderson and the A's snatched up McKinney, making Judge, a mountain of a man with tremendous athleticism, my shadow pick for the Reds.

Judge's height was a concern, but it was a concern mitigated by his plus athleticism (a three sport star in high school with offers to play tight-end at the collegiate level) and the fact that his approach was contact-oriented. The question on Aaron Judge wasn't, as it usually is with taller hitters, whether he would make enough contact, but rather whether he'd hit for power. Instead of needing to cut down on his swing to improve his contact rate, Judge almost needed to lengthen his swing to carry his power from batting practice into game action.

I'm happy to gamble on plus athleticism, a (relatively) compact swing with good plate discipline, and massive power potential, even if it comes packaged along with a very large, and difficult to protect, strike zone. Judge felt like a prospect who could provide positive value on both sides of the ball with the potential to be a true impact hitter at the plate with the type of power that is getting more and more difficult to find.

Instead of Judge, the Reds rolled the dice on another righthanded hitting outfielder, Phil Ervin from Samford University. Ervin headed into the draft as a player who had hit .300 pretty much everywhere he played. He seemed the type who could roll out of bed and hit .300 without much difficulty. In addition, he brought good speed and athleticism to the table.

I wasn't as high on Ervin as the Reds because it felt like there was a real danger of him being a tweener (not enough bat for a corner outfield spot and not enough glove for centerfield). I like the idea of adding a plus hit tool to the system, but without power or the ability to stay in center Ervin would fall short of being an impact player.

If Ervin can stick in centerfield and continue to hit around .300, then the Reds will likely reap a nice return on this investment. However, I still feel like Judge has a higher upside and is the more likely of the two to be a true impact talent.

2014 (Round 1): Nick Howard vs. Forrest Wall
2014 (Round 1): Alex Blandino vs. Joe Gatto

My shadow draft picks in 2014 were 2b Forrest Wall at 19th overall and RHP Joe Gatto at 29th overall.

Forrest Wall had one of the best hit tools in the draft class. He patterns his hitting after Robinson Cano and it shows in his swing mechanics. Wall uses a lot of movement in his setup and swing, describing himself as a "rhythm hitter". He uses a double pump with his hands during his load, which is what Cano does, and has incorporated that as a timing mechanism.

Wall is a very unique combination of plus hit tool, disciplined plate approach, plus speed, and premier defensive position. He seemed like the clear best option on the board when the Reds turn to pick rolled around. However, Wall slipped down some teams' draft boards due to a torn labrum he suffered in his throwing shoulder that hadn't fully recovered by draft day. It raised questions about his future arm strength and whether he could effectively handle second base. So, there was some uncertainty, if not increased risk, surrounding Wall, but it's difficult to pass up such a unique and valuable bundle of attributes. Somehow, the Reds managed to do just that.

Nick Howard was the Reds first pick, 19th overall, in the draft. The Reds continued on with the trend of valuing college relievers who could be converted to the starting rotation. Howard had a big fastball out of the bullpen, which slowed when he worked as a starter, a power slider with depth and tilt, and an intriguing changeup. In addition, Howard also spent time as a shortstop in college, demonstrating the type of athleticism that the Reds favor. Howard has some intriguing attributes, but he struck me as a bit of an overdraft at the time.

With the 29th overall pick, I shadow drafted RHP Joe Gatto. I looked at a lot of the pitchers in the top 100 prospects who were likely to be available when the Reds picked and Gatto was the most electric.

Gatto throws a heavy fastball from a largely over-the-top arm slot. His fastball sits 90-93 and touches 95, it has good downward plane, and very good movement (sinking and tailing). He also a 12-to-6 curveball with good power and depth, a pitch that is inconsistent but flashes plus.

Gatto also had some of my favorite mechanics in the draft, which should help his performance level, consistency, and injury risk. He's an interesting arm, though high school pitchers generally pack more development risk than most other prospects.

Instead of Joe Gatto at 29, the Reds drafted Stanford infielder Alex Blandino.

For the Cardinal, Blandino played primarily third base, but the Reds felt he profiled well in the middle infield spots. He's exactly the type of professional hitter the Reds should prioritize. At the plate, he has an easy swing with active, effective hands. He does a nice job of controlling the strikezone through a solid combination of pitch recognition and plate discipline. He has a number of potential value-drivers and he immediately felt like a good pick for the Reds.

2015 (Round 1): Tyler Stephenson vs. Garrett Whitley
2015 (Round 2): Antonio Santillian vs. Dakota Chalmers
2015 (Round 4): Miles Gordon vs. Brendon Sanger 

My shadow draft picks in the 2015 draft were OF Garrett Whitley at 11th overall, RHP Dakota Chalmers at 49th overall, and OF/INF Brendon Sanger in the 4th round.

The Reds held the 11th overall pick in the 2015 draft and I used that pick to select OF Garrett Whitley. I was very high on Whitley, as I absolutely love his swing mechanics, bat speed, and athleticism. He is a very exciting prospect with the type of fast twitch athleticism that leads to a massive ceiling. As a cold weather high school prospect, he also brings some risk to the table, as he doesn't quite have as much experience as some and he hasn't always faced the toughest competition. I was thoroughly disappointed that the Reds didn't draft Whitley and I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be the best player in this draft class.

Instead of Whitley, the Reds drafted catcher Tyler Stephenson. The Reds are very comfortable drafting and developing catchers. Stephenson is a giant of a man behind the dish. His physical stature really defines him as a prospect, as it creates raw power in the form of leverage, increases the risk in his hit tool, and raises the question of whether he'll be able to stick behind the plate. Stephenson's size gives him a larger strike zone to protect and gives him added length in his swing. Not only does he have longer levers to wield, but he also sets his hands somewhat deep during his load, which further increases the distance the bat has to travel to reach the point of contact. So, Stephenson is certainly a justifiable selection, but he'll need to make enough consistent contact to reach his plus raw power.

In round two, I shadow drafted high school RHP Dakota Chalmers at 49th overall. I was surprised Chalmers lasted that long. He features a mid-90s fastball that has touched 98, above average curveball and slider, and a developing changeup. His mechanics are pretty clean, though there is some effort to his delivery that can lead to some command issues. He has good height and a slender build, so ideally his command will improve as he fills out physically and can reduce the amount of effort in his delivery. Some are concerned about a "head whack" movement in his delivery, but I don't see that to any significant degree. Overall, there's a lot to like with Chalmers.

The Reds drafted high school RHP Antonio Santillian. Santillian was a two-way player in high school and doesn't have a ton of experience on the mound. That said, he has electric stuff and very high upside. Santillian might be even more of a boom/bust pick than your typical high school pitcher, but if he pans out he could be a true impact arm.

Finally, I shadowed drafted Florida Atlantic OF/INF Brendon Sanger in the 4th round at 115th overall. I don't usually shadow draft that deep, but Sanger is a prospect that really caught my eye leading up to the draft. I absolutely love Sanger's pitch recognition and plate discipline, just as much as I love Garrett Whitley's swing mechanics and bat speed. There might be hitters in the draft class who can match Sanger's combination of pitch recognition and the ability to control the strike zone, but I find it hard to believe there are any who exceed him. Add to that mix a very good hit tool and the type of athleticism that may enable him to convert back to an infield spot (2nd base? 3rd?) on defense and Sanger was a prospect I really wanted the Reds to draft. To my mind, the organization doesn't focus enough on disciplined hitters, an area that Sanger would definitely have addressed. Whether he has enough upside to be more than a 4th outfielder remains to be seen, but he was a very worthy gamble with a number of potential value-drivers. It seems like there were a number of development paths that would have resulted in a Sanger selection paying off.

The Reds used the 115th overall pick to draft high school OF Miles Gordon. The Gordon selection hewed to the organizational draft philosophy of focusing on good athleticism and up-the-middle defensive positions. A centerfielder with good speed and pitch recognition, questions linger over whether his short, compact swing will generate enough hard contact and power. The ability to stick in centerfield would lower the offensive bar he'll have to hurdle to reach the big leagues. Still, Gordon comfortably fits the mold favored by the Reds in the draft process.

2016 (1.2): Nick Senzel vs. Zack Collins
2016 (1s.35): Taylor Trammell vs. Drew Mendoza
2016 (2.43): Chris Okey vs. Lucas Erceg 

My shadow draft picks in the 2016 draft were 1.2 c Zack Collins, 1s.35 ss/3b Drew Mendoza, and 2.43 3b Lucas Erceg.

The Reds held the 2nd overall pick in the draft and had a unique opportunity to add an impact talent, the type of impact talent, especially among position players, that was curiously missing from all of their rebuild trades. The Reds selected University of Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, regarded by many pundits as the top position player in the draft. I went with my favorite bat in the draft class, University of Miami catcher Zack Collins.

Senzel, a comparable bat and offensive profile to Collins, brings a higher defensive performance level and more certainty in defensive position, but the Reds seem like the ideal organization to develop Collins' questionable defense behind the dish. The Reds have developed so many catchers (i.e. R.Hanigan, D.Mesoraco, Y.Grandal, T.Barnhart, etc) over the years, that it might have become a "core competency" of the organization.  There are real questions about whether Collins can stay behind the plate, but reports on defense improved during his 2016 junior season at Miami.

While I love Collins' bat (disciplined hitter, controls the heck out of the strikezone, strong swing mechanics, hits for big power, etc.), part of the reason for drafting him is to go "under slot" with the 1.2 pick to allow the team to make a bigger splash in later rounds. The assigned pick value at 1.2 was $7,762,900 and the Reds signed Senzel for $6,200,000 ($1,562,900 savings).  Zack Collins was ultimately drafted by the Chicago White Sox at 1.10 and signed for $3,380,600, which was also the pick value.

Based on where Collins was projected to be drafted, if the Reds had drafted him at 1.2, then it seems reasonable to think he would have accepted a signing bonus of ~$4,500,000, saving the Reds $3,262,900. Those savings would have come in handy for making my next pick, high school shortstop/third baseman Drew Mendoza.

Drew Mendoza was ultimately not drafted, a nod to his strong commitment to Florida State, his bonus demands, or both. Whatever the reason, it wasn't related to his ability. Given that there were rumors that he wanted a ~$3.0-3.5M signing bonus to sign, I'm guessing he wasn't an impossible sign, just a pricey one. His bonus demands created a perfect opportunity for the shadow Reds and the savings generated by drafting Zack Collins.

Mendoza has the type of sweet swing and athleticism that could make him an impact hitter at the professional level. The pick value at 1s.35 is $1.837,200 and I would gladly pay him something in the range of ~$3.5-4.0M to get him to sign on the dotted line. The Reds need upside in the draft and they need impact hitters. Mendoza has the type of tools and skills that would give the Reds both. He looks like a pure hitter. The chance to add a second potential impact hitter is too good to pass up, so ss/3b Drew Mendoza is my selection.

Instead, the Reds drafted high school centerfielder Taylor Trammell at 1s.35 and signed him to an over-slot bonus of $3,200,000. The Reds love toolsy, athletic, up-the-middle players in the draft and that's what they landed with Trammell. Trammell was a high school football star, so he doesn't have quite as much experience at the plate as other high school prospects who focused exclusively on baseball. As a result, there are some questions about his hit tool (par for the course for the Reds), but the Reds liked the overall package.

Finally, at pick 2.43 the Reds selected University of Clemson catcher Chris Okey, who was among the top catching prospects in the country, though his tools/skills across the board seem more solid-average than above average-plus. The Reds signed Okey for $2,000,000 while the slot value for the pick was $1,497,500.

At this point in the draft, I was still on the hunt for potential impact hitters, so at 2.43 I shadow drafted Menlo College 3b Lucas Erceg. Erceg also looks like he could develop into an impact type hitter at the big league level. But, he brings a bit more performance risk to the table than Drew Mendoza, as he has a bit more movement in his swing and likely a few more questions about his hit tool and contact rate, which is why he slipped lower than Mendoza for me. That said, the power potential looks legitimate, he's a baseball rat, and the upside is intriguing.

In the end, I drafted three hitters with good upside and the potential to be impact hitters: Zack Collins, Drew Mendoza, and Lucas Erceg. I wanted to focus on hitters and the way the draft fell enabled me to do just that. When compared to the Reds actual draft class, I took on a bit more positional risk with my first pick (Z.Collins over N.Senzel), but I prefer the upside/risk of my next two picks (D.Mendoza over T.Trammell; L.Erceg over C.Okey). Time will tell.


  1. question lark... who would you take instead of yonder knowing what we know now?

  2. Smitty,

    Well, I'd still love to see what Casey Kelly could do as a position player. Not many believe in the bat, but I think he could have been an interesting prospect with a tweak or two. He had something of a longer, metal bat type swing, but if he shortened his path to the ball a bit and learned how to keep his hands inside the ball when appropriate then I think he could have been a potential impact prospect.

    But, I digress, if you want to roll with pure hindsight and our needs as an organization, then you'd probably have to grab Gordon Beckham. I'm not sure I even see a decent argument for anyone else. I guess you could argue Mike Montgomery, but I'd go with Beckham and play him at short. He'd likely be average or a tick below over there, but he or Phillips would likely handle shortstop competently. And, I think he's going to be a real good hitter.

    Who would you grab, smitty? Or, would you stick with Yonder?


  3. probably beckham, i wanted smoak at the time however

  4. Didn't follow the MLB draft much at the time of the '05 draft but I did want Tulowitzki or Zimmerman going into it, in that order. I really didn't know anyone much beyond that. Needless to say the Reds made IMO the best pick possible that season (way to go DanO).

    '06 - Just started to follow it a little and was all in on anyone but Stubbs and Lincecum (lol). But seriously I didn't want either of them but the 1 I liked was already gone again, Kershaw who went right before us. Now I can't believe I didn't see Longoria's potential but I didn't, I was like Eva who?

    '07 - For the 1st time I realized in advance "my guy" wasn't gonna be there, Matt Weiters. I wasn't enamored with Kevin Ahrens who we were rumored to be in on and went just after us to Toronto. As Rick Porcello dropped I began to dream on us taking him. Needless to say he went well after us do to salary demands (27th to the Tigers) and we took Mes who I am pretty happy with now.

    '08 - Here is where I really started to get it and once draft day arrived I wanted in order IF AVAILABLE, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, Brett Lawrie, Justin Smoak, Jemile Weeks and Aaron Hicks. I did not want Yonder Alonso or Aaron Crow. I considered Kelly but his lack of a bat scared me. I still wish we had taken Beckham.

    '09 - I wasn't sure my guy would be there again so I established a smaller list of guys of who I wanted. Mike Leake was a decent pick for me but I didn't want to select him because I wanted a high ceiling TOR arm or SS. Grant Green was my guy, Tyler Matzek and then Mike Minor (not exactly TOR but I'm a sucker for LHP's). I also liked Jiovanni Mier but was hoping he somehow fell to the supplemental round. Speaking of the supplemental round I was in on Tyler Skaggs or as he fell Tanner Scheppers. We took Boxberger and Scheppers went right after us. Didn't like Donovan Tate, Aaron Crow, Bobby Borchering or Kyle Gibson (once he got hurt).

    '10 - In order Manny Machado, Christian Colon, Justin O'Connor, Matt Harvey, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Brentz, Yordy Cabrera, Zach Cox. Did not want Yasmani Grandal.

  5. I should add it's early yet and just perusing the names you can bet I'll have some initial interest in Jack Armstrong RHP (yes Jack Jr.), Christian Lopes SS, Travis Harrison 3B, Bubba Starling OF, Francisco Lindor SS, Jason Esposito 3B, B.A. Vollmouth SS, Zach Cone OF, Phil Evans SS and Henry Owens LHP in 2011. I'm sure alot of these guys won't fall to us (picking 28th) but it's a place to start.

  6. Will,

    Interesting, you started out the same way I did. My first draft just focused on the player I wanted the Reds to grab, not necessarily a player that would actually be available.

    I'm not entirely sure what to make of Wieters. He was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as "The Perfect Catch." Unfortunately, it hasn't really worked out that way. His struggles have surprised me, especially the lack of power. Is he actually going to emerge as the King Kong of catchers?

    I like Porcello quite a bit, but he needs to up his strikeout rate. He's really intriguing because I think he *can* change his pitching profile. I suspect he has such a high pitching IQ that he can alter his style when necessary. The Tigers were very aggressive with his advancement and kept him under strict pitch counts, so he succeeded with ground balls and pitching to contact. He needed to be efficient to be successful. However, he struggled last year due in no small part to his low strikeout rate. I suspect he'll show up in 2011 focused less on pitch efficiency and more on missing bats. And, I suspect he'll be successful in doing just that. Of course, I could be wrong, as not many pitchers can change who they are on the mound.

    In 2008, I'll admit I wasn't wild about Matusz. And, part of me still isn't. He had good command of pretty good stuff, but his mechanics were stiff, lacking fluidity, and he was very upright in his delivery. I'm still not sure what to make of him, he'll probably be just fine, but he wasn't someone I wanted the Reds to land.

    In 2009, Matzek was pretty intriguing. He was actually my second favorite high school arm after Shelby Miller, but Matzek had a bumpy road in his first year in the Rockie organization. I was intrigued by Kyle Gibson, but the stress fracture made him risky. I actually thought the Nationals should have grabbed Strasburg first and Gibson with their second first round pick. They went with Storen instead, but I think they missed an opportunity to land two top of the rotation type starting pitchers. Budgetary concerns, I suppose. Mike Minor looks pretty great these days, as he's added velocity and now runs it up there pretty good. I wonder if Baseball America unfairly drove down public opinion about him, viewing him as a low ceiling, signability type pick. In actuality, he looks like a #2 type starter with good swing-and-miss stuff.

    As for 2010, interesting to see you that high on O'Conner. Do you still like him that much?

    A bit too early for me to lock in on someone for the 2011 draft, but I will say that I'm very impressed by Jason Esposito. He plays 3b for Vandy and is a tremendous talent. Unfortunately, I can't see any circumstance in which he's available when the Reds pick, but there's a full season of college ball between now and then. I suppose funnier things have happened, but he hit .359/.455/.599 with 12 homers and 31 stolen bases as a sophomore. The mechanics of his game are also strong. He's going to be a stud. He could be a 5-tool guy with good on-base skills. Sadly, I really don't think he'll be available to us.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!


  7. Smitty,

    Interesting. Even with the emergence of Joey Votto, you still wanted us to go with a 1b? Were you just relying on a Best Player Available strategy? Or, did you think there was a way to make Smoak and Votto fit in the same lineup?


  8. yea best player available, and I have a thing for switch hitters

  9. On Weiters: It was still early in my days of gauging potential draft prospects, went with the hype. Still think he will be ok someday, may be way too much pressure at this point.

    On Porcello: '07 wasn't really a very good draft early on so just went with what sounded like the best value pick.

    On Matusz: Like I said I'm a sucker for LHP and though I realized his stuff wasn't quite what I would prefer I also love overall polish in such young guys, it bodes well as a safe pick. Something i have found can be a weakness in me I can play it a bit safe at times. Oatmeal is better than no meal.

    On '09: Shelby Miller was a fine prospect but something screamed arm trouble to me about him. Don't recall why I thought that but my gut said stay away and since it is the biggest part of me I listen to it often. Again really loved Matzek and Minor and also did like Gibson a whole lot until the injury.

    On 2010: Yeah loved O'Connor but moreso as a SS although the fact that he could fall back to Catcher or 3rd base and still have the kind o fstick to make him respectable or better at any of the positions. But in a nutshell I thought he was a guy who could stay at SS and with a very good bat in every way.

  10. Will,

    Agree on Wieters. There's just too much talent there for him not to step forward. He may not be a superstar, but he should at least be an above average regular with a few All Star appearances. At the very least.

    Back to Porcello, I actually think he's one of the more interesting pitchers in the game. I'm really curious about his pitching profile. They rushed him up the ladder so fast that I'm not sure he's locked into one. Still, how many young pitchers are polished enough to use a pitch-to-contact type philosophy at the MLB level? Ultimately, I don't think that's what he'll be over the long haul, but he's making it work right now. He's someone I definitely intend to keep an eye on.

    As to Matusz, you have the opposite problem I have. After the Pete Kozma experiment, I tend to go high ceiling/high risk. I think you can find the safer guys in the later rounds, but the elite, difference making talent frequently comes out of the first round. Of course, in reality you need a blend of high ceiling and high floor prospects in your system. Matusz certainly wasn't a low floor pitcher, as his stuff translates to the top of the rotation. For me, he's just too stiff and unpacks the leg kick too soon, which precludes him from properly incorporating his lower body in the delivery. As a result, he has to throw more with his arm, which could increase stress on the arm and raise his injury risk. Or, he could be just fine. You never know.

    As for Shelby Miller, I love his delivery and never saw anything that raised a red flag on heightened injury risk. In fact, his mechanics are about as clean as I could hope for in a pitching prospect. As a power pitcher, he'll always have more injury risk than a soft-tosser, but that's a risk I'm willing to take for a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Time will tell if he can stay healthy.

    O'Connor scuffled in his first year of pro-ball, but I'll be curious to see how he pans out. It's interesting to nab a guy with the ability to play multiple positions, as you can defer some of the risk if he has a fallback option. That was part of my reason for liking Casey Kelly, as he could pitch if the bat didn't come around.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment. Kinda fun to talk draft over the offseason. I almost can't wait for June.


  11. Looks like this is an old blog that you updated to include the 2011 draft, and since I missed it the first time around, I'm glad you did.

    The last line of the 2006 Stubbs vs. Lincecum draft, "...and start making the fan base forget the massive opportunity cost that came along with his(Stubbs) selection." really struck a cord with me. I've always wonder if the Reds had drafted Lincecum instead of Stubbs, would they have traded away Josh Hamilton? With Stubbs in the pipeline, Hamilton was considered "expendable" and if we had a TOR arm (Lincecum) would the Reds have even considered Volquez? It's always been the question that's bugged me ever since the Hamilton/Volquez deal.

    Add Hamilton/Lincecum and subtract Stubbs/Volquez from last years lineup and you're looking at a World Seris Championship for Cincinnati. Of course the payroll would have been a mess and the clubhouse could have been in trouble, but that ring would have been nice...

  12. Hey Bob,

    Yeah, I just tacked the 2011 draft onto the previous write-up. Figured that was the best way to keep track of it, rather than making a new post time after time. Oddly enough, I felt better about how my shadow picks stacked up against the Reds actual picks prior to this season. And, I think that has pretty much everything to do with Yonder's robust year and Casey Kelly's somewhat underwhelming year. Of course, Mesoraco's continued emergence also tips the scale a bit further that way as well. Interestingly enough, depending on when the snapshot in time is taken, the shadow picks can look better or worse.

    As for Lincecum vs. Stubbs, I really don't think you can understate the importance of that decision. It's a decision that altered the fortunes of the organization for a decade. You can't say that about very many draft picks, but Lincecum is just that type of talent. And, as you mentioned, I do think it has had a trickle down effect. I haven't really thought through all the implications, but they're definitely there. I think the Hamilton trade probably does come out differently if they had a legit number 1 like Lincecum. And, Lincecum and Hamilton on the same team at the height of their powers? That may well be a World Series champion.

    Frankly, I think it's pretty impressive how well the Reds have recovered from that decision. They whiffed big on Lincecum, but they are still a potential playoff team. They have rebounded about as well as could be expected.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!


  13. Now that the minors are over are you going to make a new top prospect list or are you going to continue your 2011 list? i really enjoy your insite on those.

  14. Anon,

    To be honest, I'm not sure. I'm probably going to try to finish up my 2011 list and then start the 2012 list after the World Series ends. I hate leaving things undone, so leaving the 2011 list undone will bother me into perpetuity. Ideally, I'll get it done.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!