"With the 5th overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Cincinnati Reds (should) select...."

The two players in this draft who excite me the most are Jonathan India and Alec Bohm. Casey Mize does, too, but he's going to be off the board by the time the Reds draft.

I love India's well-rounded game. He hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, plays strong defense, has a strong arm, and runs the bases well. And, there's a real possibility that he can be shifted up the defensive spectrum to a middle infield position.

Part of me thinks everyone is simply overthinking things with India. The only things *not* to like with India are his strikeout rate is a touch high and his track record is that of two solid years and one great year. As for the former, his strikeout rate isn't massive and given his late-count approach and power generation, it's not damning. As for the latter, Jeff Luhnow once said that "uncertainty creates opportunity." In this instance, if India had had 2 or 3 seasons comparable to the performance level of his junior season, then he's probably going 1.1 overall. However, his breakout was only in his junior season, so some question whether it's sustainable. For the Reds, this uncertainty with India creates opportunity.

As for Alec Bohm, I just love the swing. It's balanced, fluid, controlled, and powerful. It's a swing you can dream on. For a righthanded hitter, he controls the strike zone very well and he has already figured out how to manage his height (6-5). The last time I was impressed by a taller hitter's ability to offset the disadvantages of his height, it was Aaron Judge. Bohm is a bit shorter than Judge and a bit farther along in his hitting. Bohm hits for average, controls the strikezone, and hits for big power. He may be a hitter who reaps all the benefits of his height without suffering any of the drawbacks.

Bohm also moves well and throws well for a player his size. At this point, he's only average or a touch below defensively at third and long-term he might end up at first base, but the bat is very intriguing.

In the end, I'm going with Jonathan India over Bohm. As much as I love Bohm's bat (and I think he could be a legitimate impact hitter at the MLB level), India does everything well and he actually posted a higher OBP (.502 v. .436) and slugging (.723 v. .625) than Bohm this past season. I wonder if India has a bit of Justin Turner to him, not just in how he hits but also in how he has to disprove the lingering critics.

If the Reds grab Jonathan India at 1.5, then I'll be very pleased. For posterity sake, here are my top 5 for the Reds at 1.5:

1) Casey Mize, RHP
2) Jonathan India, 3b
3) Alec Bohm, 3b
4) Matthew Liberatore, LHP
5) Carter Stewart, RHP


In the later rounds, I desperately want the Reds to grab one of Griffin Conine or Seth Beer. As for India and Bohm, I like them both a great deal. Beer has a better bat (though with questions about his wood-bat performance), while Conine has more a diversified skill set. (and fewer questions about his wood-bat performance).

In the end, I'd rate Conine a tick ahead and Beer just after that. Another player I'd like to see the Reds grab would be LHP Garrett McDaniels, who has a strong foundation and room for projection.

If the Reds can walk out of the first 2 rounds of the draft with Jonathan India (1.5; 5th overall), Griffin Conine (2.4; 47th overall), and Garrett McDaniels (Competitive Balance B, 4; 72nd overall), then I'll be a happy man.

Go forth and draft, Reds!!!

Draft 2018: Pitchers of Note

Casey Mize - RHP
Auburn University
Junior
6-3; 190 lbs


Casey Mize is the better pitching prospect in this draft class and is an extreme long shot to be available at pick 1.5. He checks all the boxes: stuff, production, mechanics, and size.

Here's a look at him courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:




Frankly, it'll be a surprise if he isn't taken at pick 1.1. There's a whole lot to like about Casey Mize and if it's a pitching prospect you want, then he's your guy.

I'll just leave this final note here: In 102.2 innings this year, Mize has walked 10 and struck out 140!


Brady Singer - RHP
University of Florida
Junior
6-5; 180 lbs


Overall, I'm not seeing Singer as a viable option at pick 1.5. The combination of stuff, mechanics, and delivery tempo just don't have me seeing impact starting pitcher at the MLB level.

He features a 3-pitch mix, including fastball that sits 91/92/93 with some arm-side run and sink, a solid slider that can flash plus, and a work-in-progress changeup.

Here's a look at Singer in action, courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:




Overall, he has clean mechanics with no obvious red flags. However, he could more effectively tap into the kinetic chain in generating force, which would reduce stress on the arm and make the generation of force more efficient.

Further, the low three-quarter arm slot is potentially problematic for a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers can work successfully from that slot, but I'm not convinced that Singer is the one to bet on. This is a pass for me at pick 1.5.



Carter Stewart - RHP
Eau Gallie High School; Melbourne, Florida
Junior
6-6; 200 lbs

Keith Law has Stewart as the number 2 player on his top 100, while MLB.com slots him in at number 5.

He features a fastball, curveball, and changeup, with the first two grading out as true plus pitches. His fastball sits, depending on the day, 92-94, but has touched the upper 90s and there is obviously significant physical projection left to his game. His curveball has massive spin rate, among the highest ever recorded. So, we're talking about two potential plus pitches with a still developing changeup. Obviously, the upside is considerable, but the risk is substantial. Stewart provides a much wider range of possible career outcomes than many of the other prospects in the mix for the Reds. He could go boom, he could go bust.

Here's a look at him in action, courtesy of JT Baseball Scouting on YouTube:




The initial impression of Stewart's mechanics is one of looseness. He has long levers, his arm action is free-and-easy, and there is some overall inconsistency in his mechanics. He's just loose. On the plus side, he has a clean arm action and generates a lot of force with a very high leg kick and a long stride towards the plate. He could certainly benefit from greater differential between the rotation of the hips and the rotation of the shoulders. Overall, he seems like a live-armed youngster who could use some real development and refinement to reach his ceiling, but there's a significant amount of risk to that profile and the Reds have a poor track record of developing starting pitchers. So, are they the organization to draft and develop Carter Stewart?

Stewart has a very wide range between his floor and ceiling. Even given the risk, it would be rather interesting to have both Carter Stewart and Hunter Greene in the same organization.



Matthew Liberatore - LHP
Mountain Ridge (Ariz.) High School
6-5;  200 lbs

Liberatore is a pitcher in a draft loaded with throwers. He doesn't have the overwhelming velocity, but he has a 4-pitch mix. His fastball sits 90-92, but there's room for velocity gains as he fills out physically. He also features a curveball, slider, and changeup. In addition, he has good command and control and an understanding of how to pitch.

As for his pitching mechanics, he has very clean, fundamentally sound mechanics. Here's a look at Liberatore, courtesy of FanGraphs on YouTube:





Overall, Liberatore has a nice blend of stuff and polish. His combination of ceiling and floor should make him a top 10, if not top 5 pick.