Sunday, December 25, 2011

2012 Top Prospect List: #7 Ryan LaMarre, of

Ryan LaMarre
Height 6-2, Weight 205, B/T: R/L, DOB: 11/21/1988
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #11

It's been an interesting transformation for the Reds farm system. As we all know, back in the Marge Schott era, the Reds gutted the scouting and player development departments in order to save costs and funnel that money into the 25-man roster. Ultimately, Marge's actions to cut costs did nothing more than shift those costs onto the backs of future Reds teams. Not surprisingly,  it caught up to the Reds in a big way. However, after several missteps, their renewed efforts at developing their own players has paid off.

It's a process that seemed to happen in stages, as the first wave of players seemed to be offense-first players who manned the corner positions (Votto, Frazier, Francisco, Bruce, etc). The next wave seemingly focused more on up-the-middle players (Cozart, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Stubbs) who offered more athleticism and diversified skills.

Ryan LaMarre, with his blend of tools and skills at a premier defensive position, followed comfortably on the heels of that second wave when the Reds drafted him with the 62nd overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft. LaMarre didn't waste much time negotiating, electing to sign on the dotted line to get his professional career underway immediately.

2011 Season

Heading into the 2011 season, one could reasonably have expected LaMarre to take a step forward based on his decision to quickly sign his first professional contract. By signing early, he logged invaluable experience in the form of 254 low-A ball ABs at the tail end of the 2010 season. Organizations value that early experience so highly that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement moves the signing deadline for draftees up to an earlier date, which permits them to squeeze in a bit of professional experience in their draft year. Unfortunately, despite getting an early start to his career, LaMarre's 2011 season didn't include the step forward that seemed almost inevitable, as he simply didn't drive the ball like he had in the past.  

LaMarre started the season at high-A Bakersfield where he logged 117 games and 445 ABs in which he hit .279/.347/.371/.718 with 6 homers, 52 steals in 66 attempts, and a 97/42 K/BB. For the Blaze, LaMarre hit line drives at a14% clip, but posted a BABIP of .342, which means that there was a bit of hit luck involved, as the line drives didn't support the BABIP. So, it was in spite of both the power outage and the unsustainable batting average that LaMarre was promoted up to double-A to finish out the season.

For double-A Carolina, LaMarre logged a mere 15 ABs in 5 games. Obviously, the organization just wanted to give him a taste of things to come in 2012. Despite the inconsequential sample size, we'll take a quick look at his double-A numbers anyway. For the Mudcats, LaMarre hit .267/.421/.333 with 3 steals and a 3/3 K/BB ratio. His line drive rate jumped up to 18% and he wasn't overmatched in his first experience above A-ball.

While the power production has been underwhelming, LaMarre still managed to reach double-A in his first full season of professional baseball, which is encouraging even for a polished college prospect. LaMarre will likely return to double-A to start the 2012 season and could be on the fast track to the majors if he proves up to the challenge.

Swing Mechanics

To me, the standout characteristic of LaMarre's 2011 season was the sheer lack of power. It was not something I was expecting, especially since LaMarre posted slugging percentages of .404, .599, and .649 in his three years at the University of Michigan. Clearly, power was never a problem for LaMarre in the amateur ranks, so one possible explanation for his professional power outage would be the switch from metal to wood bats, but I don't believe that to be the cause. LaMarre has, in interviews, proven to be very cognizant of the difference between metal and wood bat swings and the need to develop the latter. Not to mention, in the past, he has had good success in the wood bat Cape Cod league. So, I suspect the power outage has its roots in mechanics, more particularly LaMarre's reworked swing. 

First, let's take a look at what LaMarre was doing at the University of Michigan, courtesy of prospectjunkies:

As you can see, he has a high leg kick and strong hip rotation and lower body action to his swing. He really lets it rip. Now, here's what he was doing in 2011 for Bakersfield, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues: 

The thing that jumps out at me the most is the new and different stride. Interestingly enough, last year I expressed concern about the length of his swing and the length of his stride, so it's curious to see that he made some changes to his lower half. Here is what I wrote in last year's LaMarre scouting report:

"However, his stride and swing both have a bit of length to them. In the professional ranks, he will likely need to tighten up his swing and shorten his path to the ball to reach his ceiling. If he doesn't, then he may be susceptible to hard fastballs in on the hands. He also may need to work on keeping his hands inside the ball, which isn't a type of swing you see all that often in the metal bat college game where pulling the ball is frequently the name of the game.

Overall, LaMarre has good swing mechanics that could enable him to hit for both average and power. He may need a tweak or two, but he has a sound foundation on which to build his offensive game."

Unfortunately, it seems like LaMarre has made more than a mere tweak, as he has completely reworked the action of his lower half. And, it would seem, not for the better. In fact, if that is the swing he was using on a regular basis in 2011, then it doesn't surprise me at all that his power has vanished.

When some hitters fall into a slump, you hear them describe their problem as "being slow to get the front foot down." To me, LaMarre now has the exact opposite problem.

LaMarre still uses a slightly wider than shoulder-width stance. His stance has a bit of forward lean to it, as his weight is largely on his front foot before he unweights his front foot to begin the stride, which transfers the weight to the back foot before it comes forward again as the stride is completed. However, if you look at LaMarre's new stride, which contains two parts, then it almost seems detached from the rest of his swing. He strides forward, landing on the ball of his foot with his heel in the air and holding his foot in this position for a moment. He then rolls off the ball of his foot and brings his heel down to the ground as his hips rotate. So, he interrupts the flow of his weight transfer from back to front, then lingers in the weak position of being on the ball of his front foot before firing the hips.

For comparison, at the plate Albert Pujols starts in a spread out position, then uses a stride that consists of raising his front foot up onto the ball of his foot and putting it right back down where it started as his hips fire, but it's one continuous, uninterrupted motion. On the other hand, LaMarre's stop-and-start stride makes the lower body action herky-jerky, robbing it of torque and power. He starts wide and gets wider, then tries to fire the hips while standing on the ball of his front foot. You simply can't effectively fire the hips if there is a pause between the landing of the stride foot and the firing of the hips.

In fact, LaMarre's stride seems disassociated from the rest of his swing to the extent that the lower body is largely removed from the swing. This is especially problematic due to the fact that most of the power in the baseball swing is generated by the lower body, so if you hinder that action or eliminate it entirely then you are left largely with an upper body swing. And, upper body swings simply don't generate much power. So, the fact that LaMarre's swing changes have significantly restricted his lower body action almost necessarily means that the power will decrease.

As for the upper body, I still really like LaMarre's swing. He starts with a high back elbow, which he drops when he fires his swing. He does a nice job of throwing the barrel of the bat at the pitch and gets good extension, both of which lend themselves to generating power. At the same time, he maintains good bat control and balance by keeping both hands on the bat during his follow-through.

Overall, I still think all the components are there for a fundamentally sound swing that will play at the MLB level. However, I think the changes he made to his lower half are a step in the wrong direction. Last offseason, I thought he needed to tighten and shorten up his swing as he climbed the ladder, but the changes he ended up making have robbed his swing of lower body action, creating a disjointed swing where the upper and lower halves simply don't work in tandem. It's very difficult to generate power without incorporating the lower half, especially a strong hip rotation, into the swing.

If LaMarre needed to tighten up his swing in 2011, then in 2012 he really needs to focus on effectively reincorporating the lower half back into his swing. LaMarre has far too much power potential to consciously sacrifice it, especially since the benefits to be reaped from his restricted lower body action are negligible, at best. In fact, I'm hopeful that that is not a swing to which he had fully committed, but rather an attempt to work through a swing flaw by temporarily incorporating an exaggerated lower body move.  

Athleticism, Speed, and Defense

The old adage that "speed doesn't slump" certainly rang true for LaMarre in 2011, as he remained a force on the bases despite an underwhelming offensive season. Between the two levels, LaMarre swiped 55 bags in 69 attempts, good for a 79.7% success rate. Clearly, he can be a weapon on the bases.

Overall, LaMarre is a very good athlete who has excelled in other sports. In fact, his manager, Ken Griffey Sr., compared him to Fred Lynn. Evidently, I'm just long enough in the tooth to appreciate that as being especially high praise, as the athletic and graceful Freddie Lynn pulled off the stunning feat of winning both the AL MVP and the AL Rookie of the Year award in the 1975 season. LaMarre attributes his impressive speed to hockey skating drills, which he believes helped him generate strength and explosiveness in his legs.

LaMarre teams with Billy Hamilton to give the Reds organization a speed dynamic that they haven't had in recent memory. LaMarre also makes good use of that speed out in the field, where he covers a lot of ground in the outfield. His aggressive style of play in the field may also have its roots in hockey, as he isn't afraid to lay out for the ball to make a play.

In 2011, LaMarre played 122 games in centerfield and 14 games in rightfield and he has the tools to stick in centerfield as he climbs the ladder. The only thing that would necessitate a move to a corner outfield is the presence of a superior outfielder ahead of him, which Drew Stubbs may well be. But, if that comes to pass, then LaMarre should be able to comfortably slide to a corner spot. 

LaMarre did suffer an ankle injury when his foot hit the first base bag wrong, landing him on the 7-day disabled list. But, the injury was minor and didn't slow him down for long, which is important given the importance of speed to LaMarre's game.

LaMarre's speed helps raise his prospect floor, as even if the bat doesn't reach its ceiling, he could still provide value as a pinch runner/defensive replacement at the MLB level. But, if the bat does develop, then pairing it with his speed could make him a legitimate impact player at the Major League level. 

Final Thoughts

LaMarre is a player I actually wanted the Reds to draft, so obviously I liked him before he got to the Reds organization and his 2011 season did nothing to diminish my appreciation for his game. He offers a nice blend of tools and skills, floor and ceiling, and athleticism and baseball IQ. He's not a finished product and certainly has some development left to do, but his 2012 season at double-A will likely provide a very telling data point to his career trajectory.

Will he reintroduce power to his game and emerge as a potential MLB starter? Or, will his numbers remain down against the tougher double-A level of competition, likely sending him down the path taken by so many 4th and 5th outfielders?

Overall, I remain bullish on LaMarre and slot him in at #11 on the list. I look forward to seeing what 2012 brings for LaMarre...hopefully, a reincorporation of his lower body into his swing.  


  1. Good flaw sighting. His planting of the foot has an unusual exaggerated twist in the 2011 footage. It's like a faux compensation for the lack of torque that would've been generated by proper timing and balance. If you told him not to lift the foot at all and had him plant it in that landed position, which is rather wide, then he would end up with a similar swing with the twist of his front foot trying to give some torque - which is not good enough. In other words, the timing step is going to waste. It's funny that I think I fell into some similar mechanical problems in high school - sadly we didn't have access to video to see these things at that time. In LaMarre's case, it's a pretty glaring difference.

    Matt McWax

  2. McWax,

    Agreed, it struck me as being so egregious that I wondered if it was an effort to overcompensate to correct some other swing flaw. On the other hand, it's easy to unknowingly slip into bad habits, so maybe that's what happened.

    Still, the lower body action almost seems like two flaws that compound each other. First, he strides too early and then pauses, which robs the swing of the momentum from the transfer of weight to meet the pitch. It's almost like when a hitter reads fastball on an offspeed pitch and ends up out on the front foot too soon, leaving just an arm swing. To compound the problem, his stride lands on the toe/ball of the front foot, which is a poor foundation for generating any power with the lower half.

    It just seems like the lower body action creates minimal torque/power and a poor overall foundation for the swing.

    Hopefully, LaMarre shows up in 2012 with something different, because I'm just not sure how he can hit at the upper levels with those mechanics. And, he's got too much talent not to hit.

    As always, thanks for the comment!


  3. Lark-

    Does this look close to starting pitcher projections:

    Daniel Corcino
    Josh Smith
    Daniel Renken
    Kyle Lotzkar

    JC Sulbaran
    Josh Ravin
    Pedro Villarreal
    Tim Crabbe

    Matt Klinker
    Scott Carroll

  4. Oh, and


  5. Anon,

    Yeah, I think that's a reasonable projection.

    Guillon is probably ready for full season ball. Mugarian could use a return stint with Dayton. It'll be interesting to see if Cingrani, a polished college southpaw, heads to Dayton or skips up to high-A. As for Cisco, just depends on when he's ready to return from TJ surgery.

    I could conceivably see either Corcino or Lotzkar starting out back in low-A, but I agree with you that thyy'll both start out in high-A. Corcino tossed 139.1 innings for Dayton, so high-A seems likely. Lotzkar had a lesser low-A workload, but given his tenure in the system and history of arm problems means he'll likely get promoted.

    Sulbaran had a real nice year last season, so I could see him starting in double-A. Ravin is as ready as he'll be for double-A. Villarreal is another guy I could see starting back in high-A, but double-A is a reasonable option as well. Crabbe is ready for double-A after a full season in high-A.

    Klinker and Carroll should both be here. It's a bit disturbing to see our lack of depth in the rotation at the higher levels. We'll need to bolster it in case of injury at the MLB level.

    So, yeah, I think you are pretty much on the mark with your organizational depth chart. I'll be curious to see what they do with Stephenson. Full season ball right off the bat? Extended spring training and short season ball? Time will tell.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!