Saturday, August 27, 2016

Closing the Book on the "Rebuild" and the Jay Bruce era


The "rebuild" is over. Largely panned, underwhelming at times, the rebuild era came to a close with the Jay Bruce trade. The Reds still have a ways to go, but they are now entering a new phase improving the competitiveness of the organization. They can still improve through the draft and free agency, but that feels more like "building" than "rebuilding."

Let's cut right to the quick. This offseason I wanted the Reds to dump Jay Bruce. I was done watching him flail at offspeed pitches. Done watching him struggle to post batting averages over .230 and OBPs over .300. Done watching him struggle to track down balls hit over his head in right field.

The life of an Major Leaguer is tough. You are constantly judged against your draft position, the label slapped on you when you enter the game, and the expectations of the fans. Injuries can strike, even if they don't force you off the field, they can still drag down your performance level on it. To top it all off, you are always playing for your job, as there is a wave of players trying to take your job.

If you even make the big leagues, you are an elite talent. If you are a star, then you have achieved a measure of greatness. But, the truth is, "greatness" is anti-gravity. It's not the norm. Mediocrity is the norm. Average is the norm. There are always demons fighting to drag you down to average: age, injury, self-doubt, anxiety, and your competition, to name just a few. Great players fight off gravity for as long as they can, but it always wins out in the end.

Gravity had its way with Jay Bruce in 2014 and 2015. That was the reality heading into the 2016 offseason. Gravity dragged him down from his lofty perch, a perch that came with weighty expectations.

I still remember Jay Bruce first announcing his arrival in professional baseball with a rifle shot. It was in the 2007 MLB Futures Game in San Francisco and Bruce ripped a bullet off the brick wall in right field in Pac Bell Park. I can still hear the explosive sound of it coming off the bat. It was a sound that only a lightning quick bat making perfectly timed contact with a speeding sphere of horsehide can make.

Since that time, Bruce's career ascended, including some big moments and a three All Star games. But, the reality was very different prior to the 2016 season.

I was of the mind that the Reds should basically dump Jay this past offseason. He was unlikely to hit enough to raise his trade value beyond the corresponding drop that would result from a half season reduction in team control. Dump him and turn the page. The Red didn't. The Reds waited. The Reds were probably right.

The Trade

On August 1, 2016, the Reds traded Bruce to the New York Mets for Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell. There's no way to know what they could have gotten for Bruce if they dealt him prior to the 2016 season. It might have been less, it definitely wouldn't have been more.

Dilson Herrera is the key piece of the trade. He's only 22 days, 5 months, and 24 days old, but somehow it seems like he's been around for a while. Herrera isn't big in stature (5-10, 205 lbs) or long on explosive tools, but his production is that of a bigger, louder player. It always seems to outpace his tools.

The Mets did Herrrera's development, trade value, and reputation no favors by rushing him to the majors in 2014 as an injury replacement for Daniel Murphy. Since then, Herrera has been somewhat lost in the shuffle, but that might have reduced his trade value enough to make him available to the Reds. Silver lining!

Herrera is an interesting hitter. He doesn't have great size and he uses a very quiet lower half at the plate, but he still manages to generate solid power. He's not a punch-and-judy hitter. Let's take a look at exhibit A, courtesy of MLB.com on YouTube:






The modern trend in hitting is to embrace the idea of hitting as a movement pattern. Similar to the focus on the kinetic chain in pitching, hitters should sequence specific movements to generate and effectively sum the force they generate.

Herrera has a quiet lower half and his movements are smaller, but he still generates good force with a short, quick, simple swing. He does a nice job of loading up in his swing and syncing his arms with the rotational power of the hips. The real key to his hitting is in his ability to make consistent, hard contact. He has a good feel for hitting, driven by strong pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination, which allows him to consistently get the barrel of the bat on the ball.

Herrera isn't a burner or absurdly athletic, but it feels like there's some real explosiveness to his swing. Here's a look at Herrera legging out an inside the park home run, courtesy of MLB.com on YouTube:





The Reds are short of good, professional hitters and their rebuild did little to rectify that issue, but the last trade of their rebuild might have netted the best hitter of the bunch. Herrera should be spraying line drives to all fields of Great American Ballpark for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, he doesn't fit the profile of a disciplined hitter, but his hit tool is strong. Overall, I'm excited about Dilson Herrera as a hitter and he's a nice return for Jay Bruce.

In a perfect world, Herrera and Jose Peraza will both reach their max projections and hold down the middle infield spots for years to come. Time will tell.


As for the other player in the trade, Max Wotell was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft out of Marvin Ridge High School in North Carolina.

He has some real funk to his mechanics. Intentionally or otherwise, deception might be his game.

He has one of the stranger wind-ups you'll see. He starts with his left foot in the middle of the rubber, but, to take his rocker step, he re-positions his foot on the rubber by moving it all the way to the third base side. It's a bizarre look and a large backward step towards third base with his plant foot.*

(*I'd have to wonder if his style is even legal, as he doesn't maintain consistent contact with the rubber, but pitchers get away with murder so we'll just move on.)

In massively re-positioning his back foot on the rubber, Wotell essentially closes himself off, all but ensuring a cross-fire delivery. So, it's not surprising that his stride foot lands closer to the first base side or that he falls off to the third base side on his follow-through. Unfortunately, while he closes himself off, I don't see a lot of coil or much differential between the lower and upper halves in his delivery. But, a video clip is worth ten thousand words, so here's a look at Wotell in action, courtesy of SkillshowVideos on YouTube:







A cross-fire delivery can add deception, but it can also reduce efficiency. If you consider motor sports, when a driver heads towards a curve he is trying to find the fastest way through it. Typically, the fast way through a curve is to take the straightest line. You try to "straighten out the curve." That is, you want to apply force in a straight line. The more you have to turn the steering wheel, the greater the loss of effective force. When you turn, the weight/balance of the car tips towards the front outside tire, where the stress, friction, and load are increased, resulting in less speed and less efficiency.

It's largely the same with pitching. You want to apply force in a straight line. The most efficient path for delivering the pitch is a straight line. If you are using a cross-fire delivery, then your momentum is not on a direct line to the plate. Rather you are working around or against your body, which creates inefficiency and results in a loss of force that would otherwise be applied to the ball. In addition, you are likely increasing the stress on your arm, which can increase your injury risk.

On the plus side, cross-fire deliveries can increase deception. If you want to see what it's like to hit against Wotell, then here's a look from the batter's point of view, courtesy of FanGraphs on YouTube, Good luck!:





That doesn't look like a comfortable At Bat for the hitter. Wotell is moving around on the rubber, working with a quick tempo, high effort delivery, and hides the ball pretty well. So, while his injury risk might be higher (minimal differential/lack of body coil, cross-fire delivery, high effort), he at least gains points in the deception department, which might help his performance level.

It's too early in his career to know much about his repertoire. He features a fastball, slider, and change-up combo. The fastball sits 89-91 and has touched 93. The hope is that 93 will become more of the norm when he fills out physically. He gets good marks for his slider and the change is a work in progress.

In short, Wotell seems like a lottery ticket. A very young, raw pitcher with some upside and a lot of risk. But, if you buy enough lottery tickets, one might pay off.

Final Thoughts

In my view, the Jay Bruce trade represents the end of the rebuild, as he was the final available trade piece. They simply don't have any expensive, aging veterans who no longer fit in with the organization's new position on the win-curve left to trade. From here on out, it's not a rebuild, but rather just a "build."

If the Bruce trade is the final move in the rebuild, it was a strong final move to what might otherwise have been a lackluster rebuild. Dilson Herrera can really hit. Wotell is a high risk, solid upside second piece that diversifies the risk and increases the number of avenues by which the Reds can "win" this trade. Given where Jay Bruce's value was prior to the season, that's a pretty nice return for the Reds.

7 comments:

  1. Good to see a post from you. I like hererra. I think the reds do well taking guys who were good prospects but lost we luster in their first go round. The desclfani trade looks like a steal. I don't think the rebuild is as lackluster as some. Winker had a really bad May, but otherwise has been on base 38 of 41 games and slugged near .450. Slot him in the two spot. Suarez looks leaps and bounds better at third and is actually rated by metrics as a better defender then Frazier. I like peraza punch and line drive game. Senzal looks like a pro hitter that we both prefer and trammel and freidl and positional depth. They just made another int signing with Gutierrez. I think the farm is stacked and they have some guys like Finnegan who went thru the ringer and have good upside.

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  2. Hey Dylan,

    Good to see you and thanks for the comment! I'm planning on shaking off the rust ramping back up with my posts.

    I don't love the rebuild (Max Kepler was the player I really wanted: http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-key-max-kepler.html), but (right or wrong) I kinda view the rebuild as beginning with the Cueto trade and ending with the Bruce trade. Those feel like the bookends, though I suppose that's just an arbitrary designation. Still, in some ways, the talent they got in those two trades is the most impressive. Reed and Herrera seem like legitimate impact type talent. Finnegan is rounding into form, though I still have few questions on him.

    Outside of that, I liked Scotty Schebler a touch more than the general consensus. I thought/think that there's positive production to be extracted from him, if we deploy him in the right way. Maybe that's a platoon outfielder or a bench bat, but I think he can contribute in some way, shape, or form. Still, even with recent improvements, he has a ways to go in that department.

    Peraza, we shall see. I think it's very clear that he needs to be the shortstop of the future. Hamilton has centerfield locked down. Herrera slots in best at 2nd. Right now we have Suarez at third and Senzel is on the horizon. Not sure where else Peraza would fit.

    Speaking of Senzel, yeah he looks like the type of disciplined hitter they should be targeting (though, I would have drafted a player with a similar prospect/offensive profile in Zack Collins, in part because I love his offensive ability/profile and in part to save a bit more cash for later picks). That's my main issue with the rebuild. They just didn't target those types of hitters and that might come back to haunt. I don't necessarily mind that they targeted MLB proximity in their trades...as long as those players fit the disciplined hitter profile.

    I watched some of the Cubs v. Giants game last night. The Cubs are absurdly disciplined. They made Samardzija throw ~48 pitches in the first inning. It was crazy. I just don't know how we compete with that type of patience.

    I suppose the biggest hurdle the Reds now face is how to make room at shortstop and second base for Peraza and Herrera, respectively.

    Anyway, thanks for the interesting thoughts.

    Best,

    Lark

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  3. Here is my biggest question and I just can't put my finger on it and I think your the guy for the answer. It's too early to judge any recent trades, so those aside, the reds do some absolutely baffling things. They refused to put mes on the DL for weeks last year and went with one less player on the roster. Then sent him down to play left then finally had the surgery. A player said he wanted to stop switch hitting and they said no. Why bring up peraza just to sit him behind Phillips WHO HAS A BAD KNEE AND FRAC HAND!!!! IMO they rush alot of prospects, some who don't have positions so they sit and it costs them a year of service time.
    On the other hand, someone there is very astute. Suarez for rental Simon, desclfani trade, one of only a couple teams to watch Iglesias and he is electric. They bet on barnhart, bet on mes before him when he was unproven. Said player who wanted to stop is now blossoming as a switch hitter.
    There are obviously more situations on both sides but this doesnt need to get longer. I was just curious if you thought anyone in particular was really good or really bad in the scouting and front office area and what you thought of the dynamic. And yes Kepler is what we prefer but what would the twins have wanted from the reds? Was there a deal discussed? Or are you just suggesting guys like him?

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  4. Here is my biggest question and I just can't put my finger on it and I think your the guy for the answer. It's too early to judge any recent trades, so those aside, the reds do some absolutely baffling things. They refused to put mes on the DL for weeks last year and went with one less player on the roster. Then sent him down to play left then finally had the surgery. A player said he wanted to stop switch hitting and they said no. Why bring up peraza just to sit him behind Phillips WHO HAS A BAD KNEE AND FRAC HAND!!!! IMO they rush alot of prospects, some who don't have positions so they sit and it costs them a year of service time.
    On the other hand, someone there is very astute. Suarez for rental Simon, desclfani trade, one of only a couple teams to watch Iglesias and he is electric. They bet on barnhart, bet on mes before him when he was unproven. Said player who wanted to stop is now blossoming as a switch hitter.
    There are obviously more situations on both sides but this doesnt need to get longer. I was just curious if you thought anyone in particular was really good or really bad in the scouting and front office area and what you thought of the dynamic. And yes Kepler is what we prefer but what would the twins have wanted from the reds? Was there a deal discussed? Or are you just suggesting guys like him?

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    Replies
    1. Dylan,

      It's definitely an interesting question. With respect to their operational style, the Reds are a mixed bag. There's some good and some bad. They are like 31 flavors, they offer something for everyone: optimists, pessimists, and everyone in between.

      Unfortunately, as an outsider, it's difficult to get a clear handle on how the organization functions. The job responsibilities can overlap and the decision making authority isn't clearly publicized. So, we're left to read tea leaves and draw inferences. It doesn't help that the Reds have joined in the recent trend of "job title inflation" that has gripped the game and to some extent installs a new position above the GM in the baseball operations department. So, does the GM continue to do everything we previously expected of a GM? Or, does the President of Baseball Operations now do everything the GM used to do? It seems to vary from organization to organization.

      If we're trying to evaluate front office performance, then we are probably left to focus on the GM, manager, and scouting director.

      For our purposes, let's still consider Walt Jocketty as the GM. Walt was fired from the Cardinals organization due to clashes with (now Astro GM) Jeff Luhnow, who was trying to implement an organizational structure that was data-driven. Walt wasn't comfortable with that evolution and ultimately the red birds chose the data-driven system over Walt. In a day-and-age where data helps inform every decision an organization makes and mining for undiscovered data can yield competitive advantages, Walt's previous reluctance to embrace big data is a red flag. Still, I would say Walt's biggest problem with the Reds has been his failure to control the message.

      Walt rarely discusses the state of the organization, the plan going forward, or explanations for moves that are made. It always irked me a bit when Dusty Baker seemed to be the mouthpiece for the organization on player personnel moves. That should be Walt's job. But, Walt's reticence to use the press to craft and control the organization's message creates a vacuum. It leaves room for the press and fans to speculate and fill in their own narrative. That leads to some confusion and frustration for those outside the organization. Frankly, it leads to increased criticism and negativity from the fan base. To me, this feels like Walt's biggest failing.

      Personally, from a purely operational standpoint, I think Walt has done a pretty nice job. He has made some pretty strong trades. The Latos trade (x 2), the Simon trade, the Cueto trade, the Jay Bruce trade, the Shin Soo Choo trade, etc. He's made some bold, gusty, decisive trades. Of course, he's made some questionable ones, too. He has also been aggressive on the Cuban front with Aroldis, Iglesias, etc., which has paid off. I wouldn't say Walt is a top 10 GM, but I'm not sure I'd say he's a bottom 10 GM, either. He feels like a good fit for that middle tier.

      Of course, that's rating the player personnel transactions, which is only part of the GMs job. Walt might not grade out as highly in the tougher to evaluate portions of the job. For example, I read comments a few weeks ago from an anonymous Reds minor league coach stating that, basically, the big league staff was screwing up the pitching prospects. To paraphrase his thoughts: the prospects would get promoted, the big league coaching staff would change what the pitchers were focusing on or how they were doing going about their business, they'd fail, and then get demoted back to the minors where the minor league coaches would correct the problems and get them back on track.


      ...cont.

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    2. It would seem to me that the GM would be in charge of, or at least involved with, setting a consistent player development message throughout the organization. Pitchers should be getting essentially the same message coming up through the minors as they'd get at the major league level. In this instance, it sounds like the major league staff is teaching something different than the minor league staff. They shouldn't be. I'm not sure which of the coaching staffs, major or minor, are teaching the right thing, but the fact that there's seemingly a disconnect between the two is a problem. So, that would be an area where Walt should be playing a role.

      Shifting gears to the Scouting Director, Chris Buckley, I'm not wild about the Reds recent drafts. Buckley received some praise for his work a few years back, but I'm not sure if that was just the result of low expectations. The Reds took a long time to recover from the Marge Schott era, where they eviscerated the scouting department. So, with respect to expectations, Buckley was still working with a lowered bar. Setting aside first round picks, which themselves are a pretty mixed bag, the list of Reds second and third round draft picks from 2010 through 2015 reads as follows:

      Second Round: Ryan LaMarre, Gabriel Rosa, Tanner Rahier, Kevin Franklin, Taylor Sparks, Tanner Rainey, Antonio Santillan.

      Third Round: Devin Lohman, Tony Cingrani, Dan Langfield, Mark Armstrong, Wyatt Strahan, Blake Trahan.

      Now, obviously, some of those guys can still pan out, but Cingrani is the only one who has appreciable MLB time. That's not good enough. Drafts have to be about more than the first rounders. The organization needs to find more talent in the later rounds. Add in a few lackluster first round picks and the Reds haven't been setting the world on fire.

      As a caveat, it's always difficult to draw the line between the scouting and player development departments. So, maybe the latter is messing up the efforts of the former....but that feels unlikely.

      Chris Buckley is on record as saying that he favors athleticism at the up-the-middle defensive positions. And, I think that bears out in his draft picks (Phil Ervin, Billy Hamilton, Taylor Trammell, etc). And, obviously, they have had a bizarre faith in their ability to convert relievers in collegiate baseball into starting pitchers at the professional level. That strategy may make sense in the middle rounds of the draft, where the opportunity cost is lower and allows for the type of risk that this conversion necessarily involves, but it becomes far less acceptable in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Nick Howard's career has been a disaster. Michael Lorenzen seems to be a reliever now. Tony Cingrani had some success as a starter, but they dumped him back into the bullpen. It's a bad strategy in the early rounds and they've been burned by it. So, there is some real room for improvement in the scouting department from Chris Buckley.

      Circling back to Max Kepler, there were no trade talks that I know of between the Reds and Twins, but he's the player I wanted. I wanted him because he's a professional type hitter. His approach is Votto-esq, tremendously disciplined, doesn't chase much, and his pitch recognition is superb. To me, that's the type of player we need. And, unfortunately, those types of hitters rarely fall into Buckley's preferred profile of athleticism and up-the-middle talent. So, the Reds have a real shortfall of disciplined hitters, because it's just not a focus of the organization. The Reds, in my humble opinion, need to focus more on baseball specific skills (pitch recognition, hit tool, plate approach, etc) and a bit less on raw, athletic tools (speed, raw strength, etc).

      ...cont.

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    3. Finally, you have the manager. Personally, setting aside the on-field tactical aspects of the job, I think Bryan Price is in over his head and is unlikely to be back next year. His infamous profanity laced tirade at the media was a sign of someone with a misunderstanding of the role of the media (hint: they don't work for the organization, Bryan) and a sign of someone cracking under the responsibilities of his job. That outburst brought discredit to the organization. You mentioned the Mesoraco debacle and that still defies explanation. It was, is, and always will be bizarre. I don't know who is at fault, but I would like to think that a manager could go to the front office and say you have to DL this guy because we can't compete with a 24 man roster.

      Another decision that really rankled me was moving Cingrani to the bullpen in favor of Jason Marquis. That was "bad process and bad result." Price was the pitching coach before becoming the manager, it feels like he had a hand in the decision. If he didn't, he should have had input. Even if Walt was pushing his ex-Cardinals fetish, Price shouldn't have been on-board with it. Cingrani's mechanics might have made him a poor bet to stay healthy in the rotation, but they should have given him the chance to prove it. And, the decision wasn't handled well, either, as they told Tony shortly before the season started.

      I also don't understand the decision to hit Billy Hamilton second behind Cozart. If he's good enough to hit second, then he's good enough to hit leadoff where his speed won't be stuck behind Cozart.

      This comment has gotten much longer than I intended and at this point it might have lost any semblance of coherent, forward motion. But, it seems clear that the scouting department isn't bringing enough talent into the system and the talent that it does bring into the organization doesn't have the most valuable type of profile, Walt's operations are hampered by having fewer assets with which to work and a reluctance to get on the cutting edge of the "big data" era and inability to properly coordinate the different levels of the organization, and at the MLB level Price doesn't know how to properly utilize the talent that we *do* have.

      So, there are definitely some minor cracks in our organizational bucket and we are leaking some value throughout the process. In an era where baseball organizations are massively competitive, we can't afford to be losing any value if we want to win. So, we need to plug some leaks going forward.

      Anyway, that turned out to be a longer response than I intended! Thanks for the comment!

      Best,
      Lark

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