For posterity's sake, worth noting that this is the first MLB draft that utilized the draft lottery for the first round, which explains why the Reds draft 7th overall in round 1, but 4th in round 2.
At 1.7, the Reds selected RHP Rhett Lowder from Wake Forest.
In many ways, the draft class and the draft itself broke just right for the Reds. The Reds are a team now awash in hitting and position player prospects. What they are somewhat short on is starting pitching; trading away Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo will do that to you.
When you are a team with limited resources, it is important to sync-up your assets properly. It doesn't do you any good to have great pitching and no hitting one year, then great hitting and no pitching the next year. You need both, but obviously it's expensive and/or difficult to properly sync-up. It's expensive if you try to do it with established veterans, it's difficult if you try to do with young, cost-controlled players.
All of which leads to the conclusion that the Reds could benefit from polished college pitchers in the draft. And, as luck would have it, Rhett Lowder was one of the top options available when pick 1.7 was called. They didn't have to reach for an arm that fit their needs, he was just sitting there for the taking.
For this time and this place, Lowder was the best possible option for the Reds in this draft.
Rhett Lowder was a draft-eligible junior in 2023. He stands 6-2 and is right-handed. He's also currently rocking a mane of abundance, unkempt and unruly.
On the season for Wake Forest, Lowder tossed 120.1 innings with a 1.87 ERA, 15-0 W/L record, .208 BAA, and a 143/24 K/BB ratio. He was inarguably one of the top college pitchers in the country. He also lead Wake Forest to Omaha for the College World Series and matched up with Paul Skenes (pick 1.1 in this draft) in an epic game. Lowder threw 7 scoreless, while Skenes threw 8 scoreless. Lowder won ACC pitcher of the year in 2022 and again in 2023.
Lowder was also of the leader of the pitching staff and seemed very comfortable in that role; helping and mentoring younger pitchers. Also worth noting, Wake Forest has one of the top "pitching labs" in the collegiate game. So, he is already using/comfortable with using technology in pitch design and refining mechanics. The fact that Lowder has already been through the "pitching lab" process lends itself to two conclusions: (1) he's probably more developed, more polished, and more MLB ready than a pitcher who has not been through it, and (2) there's potentially less room for improvement than if he hadn't already been through it; if the Wake pitching lab has already taken 80-90% of the potential improvement, then there might not be very much left there. So, he might be lower development risk, but lower ceiling, too.
On the bump, Lowder works with largely a 3-pitch mix. Fastball, slider, and changeup. His changeup is very good, it clocks-in in the upper 80s and has downward sink that frequently sees hitters swing early and over the top of it. Lowder's fastball lacks elite velocity. He's not tickling triple digits with it, but rather sits 94/95. His two-seamer, however, has some real nice arm-side run to it, so he can run it off the plate to lefties and he can run it in on the hands of righties. To me, those are his two best pitches (sinking changeup; running fastball), but his slider gets quite a bit of love, too. For me, the slider is less impressive. When I've seen it, it just doesn't seem to do much, but whatever it did was enough at the collegiate level. It's a short slider, it doesn't move much; a bit of horizontal break but a bit more downward break. But, maybe that's more when he's trying to land it in the zone for a strike, as I did see a couple of sliders that were bigger breakers that seemed designed to be more of a chase pitch to righties. Ultimately, the slider worked at the collegiate level, but I'll want to see it against more advanced hitting before I'm convinced.
With respect to control and command, Lowder excels in that department. He can locate his pitches effectively within the zone and he does a very nice job of limiting free passes. For his collegiate career, he walked 2.26 per nine (to go with a 10.21 K/9) and in his junior/draft year he walked only 1.80 per nine (to go with a 10.7 K/9).
With regard to pitching mechanics, Lowder reminds me a bit of Mike Clevinger. They both have similar size, hair (it must be said), and tempo. Clevinger is a bit more and louder than Lowder, but there are similarities. They both have a quick tempo to their mechanics, a high energy level, and finish with their right/following leg swinging over to the first base side. They also both give the appearance of kinda throwing their whole body at the hitter. It's not just a clean arm-stroke, but rather a whole body movement.
Here's a video clip by Baseball America on YouTube:
Overall, there aren't any glaring red flags to his mechanics. He gets into the proper positions he needs to be in at the time he needs to be there. However, there is some funk and some potential inefficiency to his delivery that could be cleaned up. His stride foot lands in a closed off location on the mound (farther to third base), forcing his momentum to work around the plant leg and causing his follow-through to fall off to the first base side. Also, his stride foot lands in a strange position. If 2nd base is 6 o'clock and homeplate is 12 o'clock, his stride foot lands with the toes pointing to 10 o'clock. And, when his stride foot lands, his stride leg is bent with the knee outside the foot. A picture is worth a thousand words:
Funky. I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitcher's stride foot land in such an open position. It looks borderline painful, but it works for him. Still, landing spot for the stride foot (closed off) and the pointing of the toes (to first base) make it necessary/inevitable for his momentum to work around his body to a certain degree, rather than being delivered directly and entirely to home plate. Does that bit of inefficiency cost him velocity? Would he sacrifice deception and command if he were to "correct" it? I don't know, maybe, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it. If he continues to succeed as he is, then no reason to make adjustments. But, if he scuffles, then there are possible areas of mechanical refinement that might be helpful.
On the plus side, he does get solid separation between the rotations of his hips and shoulders, which helps generate force through the kinetic chain rather than just the arm.
Overall, the Reds got one of the top college arms in the country. One who is polished and should move quickly. One who embraces the new fangled pitcher development techniques as needed to maximize his performance level. One who seems to embrace a leadership role.
As it stands, I'm not sure I see a #1 or #2 type starting pitching, but he could/should be a solid mid-rotation arm who moves quickly and comes with low levels of development and injury risk. If he unlocks another gear of velocity, then maybe his ceiling increases. As it stands, he could be up soon and contributing to the young offensive core that the Reds have currently in place. He's a pick that makes a ton of sense for the Reds.
