Reasons to fear 2008 (AKA: The Importance of Defense)

It seems like the more light that statistical analysis sheds on the game of baseball, the more the importance of defense is revealed.

Over the years, it has always been difficult to determine where pitching ends and defense begins. The two are so intertwined, that it has been difficult to separate them out to determine the true abilities and deficiencies of a team. However, modern analysis is beginning to effectively separate out the difference.

Two team defensive statistics, Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) and Team +/-, have been developed that effectively quantify the defensive abilities of a team.


DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATIO (DER)

Here is the definition for DER:

"Defense Efficiency Ratio: The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula used by the Hardball Times is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls."

Here is how the National League teams have performed so far in 2007 and their NL DER rank:

Team: Team DER (NL DER Rank)
Arizona: .696 (8)
Atlanta: .698 (7)
Chicago: .712 (1)
Cincinnati: .677 (15)
Colorado: .699 (6)
Florida: .669 (16)
Houston: .683 (12)
Los Angeles: .686 (11)
Milwaukee: .681 (13)
New York: .711 (2)
Philadelphia: .687 (10)
Pittsburgh: .681 (14)
San Diego: .703 (4)
San Francisco: .701 (5)
St. Louis: .691 (9)
Washington: .704 (3)

TEAM +/-

Now, this is how Team +/- is explained by The Hardball Times:

"Our team "plus/minus" stat is an improvement over DER, because it corrects for the type of batted ball allowed. In other words, it adjusts the thinking behind DER by the number of infield flies, line drives and all other types of batted balls allowed by each pitching staff. I explained the system in more detail when we rolled it out last year.

In addition to adjusting DER, the "plus/minus" stat expresses each team's fielding performance as the number of plays above and below the expected number of plays an average team would turn. This is a more concrete and useful way of thinking about fielding."

Team: +/- (NL Team +/- Rank)
Arizona: +42 (3)
Atlanta: +36 (5)
Chicago: +54 (T1)
Cincinnati: -31 (11)
Colorado: -13 (10)
Florida: -81 (16)
Houston: -40 (13)
Los Angeles: -4 (9)
Milwaukee: -40 (14)
New York: +54 (T1)
Philadelphia: -34 (12)
Pittsburgh: -50 (15)
San Diego: +40 (4)
San Francisco: +24 (6)
St. Louis: -2 (8)
Washington: +22 (7)

ANALYSIS

So, if you average out the Team ranks for DER and Team +/- to determine the team's overall defensive prowess, then it breaks down like this:

Chicago Cubs: 1
New York: 1.5
San Diego: 4
Washington: 5
Arizona: 5.5
San Francisco: 5.5
Atlanta: 6
Colorado: 8
St. Louis: 8.5
Los Angeles: 10
Philadelphia: 11
Houston: 12.5
Cincinnati: 13
Milwaukee: 13.5
Pittsburgh: 14.5
Florida: 16

This is how the NL teams rank defensively from best to worst. So, the Cubs are the NL's best defensive team and the Marlins are the NL's worst defensive team. Something interesting comes to light if you look at the Winning percentages of these teams broken down into quartiles.


WINNING PERCENTAGE BY DEFENSIVE QUARTILE

1st quartile: Cubs, Mets, Padres, and Nationals.
2nd quartile: Diamondbacks, Giants, Braves, and Rockies.
3rd quartile: Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies, and Astros.
4th quartile: Reds, Brewers, Pirates, and Marlins.

Here's how these quartiles stack up when broken out by 2007 winning percentage.

W% of 1st Quartile: .517
W% of 2nd Quartile: .506
W% of 3rd Quartile: .500
W% of 4th Quartile: .458


IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REDS

To me, it is becoming clearer that the Reds cannot win as currently configured. A team that is built around Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Edwin Encarnacion is built on unstable foundation. The offensive prowess of those three is outweighed by their defensive deficiencies. Both Dunn and Griffey are leftfielders, so you can't have both of them in the lineup at the same time. At least one of them has to go. Edwin has taken a step forward defensively, but he's still league average at best.

The problem seems to be that the Reds are going to continue attempting to build their team around poor defensive players. That kind of strategy just doesn't work, as generally speaking: the better the team defense, the better the W/L record.

The general thought is that the Reds need better pitching and I agree, but how much better would the pitching looking with a top notch defensive playing behind it?

If the Reds want to have a better season in 2008, then the first priority has to be improving the defense. That would have the biggest impact of anything that could be done for 2008. Unfortunately, the Reds continue to lock themselves into a roster of defensively deficient ballplayers, which offsets much of the advantages of a good offense and a strong pitching staff.

Sadly, it's difficult to envision the Reds as a winning organization until they improve the defense.

2007 NL Central Predictions

Well, better late than never. Here's some projections that I worked out during the first week of the season. Given the way the season is developing, I wish I could change it, but where's the fun in that?

I crunched a few numbers and came up with a bit of rough forecasting for the 2007 season. For each NL Central team, I took a stab at calculating out the individual performance of each player, the subsequent aggregate team production, and their respective W/L records using the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem.

It'll be fun for me to see how close it is, but at the very least, it'll give you something to hold against me in September. ;)

Without further ado, here's how I see the NL Central playing out in 2007:

1) Houston Astros - 84-78 .519 W%

I've got the Astros scoring 758 Runs, which is an increase of 23 over 2006. Carlos Lee paying dividends. And, I've got them Allowing 730 Runs, which is 11 more runs than 2006. I thought it would be higher due to the loss of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, but Pettitte wasn't great in 2006 and they also suffered through Wandy Rodriguez and Taylor Bucholz, both of whom were awful.

2) Cincinnati Reds - 82-80 .509 W%

I've got the Reds scoring 766 Runs, which is an increase of 17 over 2006. The Reds lost Aurilia, but added Hamilton and are unlikely to see a complete team-wide offensive collapse in the second half like they did in 2006. And, I have them allowing 753 Runs, which is a decrease of 48 Runs. The addition of Lohse and the arrival of Homer helps them out in the pitching department. As does the removal of Claussen (6.19), Elizardo (5.37), and Dave Williams (7.20) from the mix. In the projection, I gave Milton only 130 innings. If he is allowed to pitch closer to 200, then obviously they'll be giving up more runs. Also, if they don't bring up Homer in the second half or if he imitates a gas can, then the pitching won't be quite so good.

Also, the improved defense of adding A-Gon and moving Griffey to rightfield helps.

3) Milwaukee Brewers - 79-83 .488 W%

I've got the Brewers scoring 740 Runs, which is an improvement of 10 runs over 2006. I've got Weeks and Hardy taking a step forward, but Bill Hall taking a step backward.

I've got the Brewers allowing 755 Runs, which is a decrease of 78 Runs. That's a mighty hefty improvement, but having Sheets back at full strength is a big improvement. Also, a step forward from Dave Bush and another solid year from Capuano.

4) Chicago Cubs - 79-83 .488 W%

I've got the Cubbies scoring 758 Runs, which is a 42 run improvement. That's the benefit of adding Alfonso Soriano and a full season of Derrek Lee.

As for the pitching/defense, I've got them giving up 778 Runs, which is a 56 run decrease over 2006. The Cubs add a bit more stability to the rotation, as Rich Hill should continue to be a very good starting pitcher. And, Lilly and Marquis should be adequate at the back of the rotation.

However, I see the Cubs defense as taking a hit with the loss of Juan Pierre and the addition of Izturis over Ronny Cedeno.

The big money spent should help, but not get them to the promise land.

5) St. Louis Cardinals - 78-84 .481 W%

I've got the Cards pegged for 750 Runs, which would be a decrease of 31 Runs over 2006. I think Edmonds (especially) and Rolen are slowing down, which hurts the offense despite an impressive expected showing from Chris Duncan. And, of course, Pujols is always Pujols. But, Yadier Molina and Preston Wilson don't help matters.

As for the pitching, I've got the Cards giving up 779 Runs, which would be an increase of 17 runs over 2006. Due to his elbow problems, I've got Carpenter only working 150 innings in 2007, which really brings down the staff. I really like Wainwright and Reyes, but 2007 may not be a great year for either.

If Carpenter doesn't come back at all, then it'll be a long year for the birds. At this point, they rely too much on Rolen and Edmonds.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates - 71-91 .438 W%

I've got the Pirates scoring 713 Runs in 2007, which is a 22 Run increase over 2006. The addition of Adam LaRoche should help, even though he won't be what he was in 2006.

As for the pitching, I've got the Pirates allowing 805 Runs, which is an increase of 8 runs over 2006. I like Ian Snell a lot, but after that there isn't much to get excited about. The bullpen isn't quite as solid without Mike Gonzalez.

And, the Pirates should suffer quite a bit from shabby defense. They were poor in 2006 and shouldn't be much better in 2007.

Well, there you have it. Take it with a grain of salt, but that's how I've got it pegged for 2007. Of course, big trades, painful injuries, or just the unpredictability/luck of the game could make this wildly off-base.