I had the opportunity to watch the last 6 innings of the Arizona Fall League Rising Star Game. Unfortunately, that means I missed the battle of 1.1 vs. 1.2, as Gerrit Cole took on Danny Hultzen in the early innings. The matchup failed to live up to the hype as Cole couldn't keep pace with Hultzen. Cole gave up 5 runs and 4 hits in 2/3rds of an inning, while Hultzen struck out the side in the first on 14 pitches and didn't allow a hit in his two innings of work.
Overall, I was impressed with the talent on display, even though on paper I didn't think it would be all that impressive outside of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Still, there were a few impressive players, including Will Myers. Myers had a down year in 2011 as he struggled through injuries, but looked good at the plate and moved very well in the field for a converted catcher. He looks to be fully back on track.
Most interestingly, at least to Reds fans, was the work of Brad Boxberger. Boxberger worked a 1-2-3 inning, so he worked out of the windup the entire time and featured a fastball that sat in the 94-95 mph range, a change-up with very good late sink, and a power slider in the mid-80s.
Boxberger squared off against S.I. cover boy and uber-prospect Bryce Harper. And, encouragingly, Boxberger made very quick work of him. It took Boxberger just four pitches to strikeout Harper. Boxberger started him off with two change-ups with very good sink, the first of which was off the outside corner. After starting him off down in the strike zone, Boxberger then changed the eye level by elevating the fastball. His third pitch was a 94 mph fastball up, but was too far inside. The fourth pitch was likely a do-over of what the third pitch was supposed to be, but this time with better execution. This time, Boxberger elevated the fastball and hit the target set by the catcher at or a tick above the top of the zone. Harper took a hack, but couldn't catch up to it.
The final line speaks for itself, as Boxberger acquitted himself very well in his appearance, but here are a few observations that won't show up in the box score:
1) Boxberger has some looseness to his delivery, an appearance largely caused by his long arms and the big arm swing he uses in his windup. After breaking his hands, Boxberger uses a large circle to bring his pitching arm up into proper throwing position.
2) Boxberger threw a handful of sliders during his appearance, but I thought it was noticeable from his mechanics when he was throwing it. I'm not entirely sure what it was, but his delivery was different when he threw the slider. First impression was the arm speed was different, but the slider is generally more of a power pitch, so I'm not confident that that's what it was. If it wasn't that, then it had to be either the grip on the pitch or the arm slot. Whatever it was, I thought his mechanics differed on the slider than on the fastball and change-up, which could be a problem against sophisticated hitters at the MLB level.
3) While the slider underwhelmed me, the change-up impressed me a great deal. His change-up had a significant amount of sink to it (almost to the point where it looked like a true sinker), which would play well in Great American Ballpark. Additionally, such heavy sink gives him a nice weapon that most power pitchers do not possess. Power pitchers are typically fly ball pitchers because they utilize their stuff up in the zone. Boxberger has the fastball and strikeout rate of a power pitcher, but if he can continue to generate such significant sink then he should be able to work effectively in both the top and bottom of the strike zone.
Showing posts with label B.Boxberger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label B.Boxberger. Show all posts
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
2011 Top Prospect List: #13 Brad Boxberger, rhp
Brad Boxberger
Height 6-2, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 5/27/1988
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #13
In a system suddenly running a bit thin in the pitching department, Brad Boxberger grades out as one of the best. He is a polished college pitcher out of a legendary college program (USC). He comes from a baseball bloodlines, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Add in an impressive, albeit inconsistent, repertoire of pitches and all the ingredients needed for an impressive career are present.
Boxberger didn't pitch professionally in 2009, so the 2010 season represented his first taste of full season ball. The Reds sent him to high-A Lynchburg to start off the 2010 season.
2010 Season
In 2010, Boxberger broke quickly out of the gates at high-A Lynchburg. Working almost exclusively as a starter, he tossed 62.0 innings in which he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9, and a 1.63 GB/FB. Obviously, it was a stellar performance, as he piled up the strikeouts, limited the walks, and induced ground balls at a high rate. Given his impressive strikeout and walk rates, his WHIP looks surprisingly high, so it's not all that surprising that his hit luck was poor, as evidenced by his .346 BABIP.
As a polished college prospect, it wasn't unexpected that Boxberger would thrive in high-A ball, but it was nonetheless reassuring. Even if a prospect is reasonably expected to perform at a certain level, we shouldn't withhold credit from him when he actually does it. Living up to expectations isn't always the easiest thing to do, but Boxberger managed to do just that. Iin the process, he earned a promotion to double-A ball to finish out the year. College pitcher or not, advancing all the way to double-A ball in your first professional season is an accomplishment.
Unfortunately, the wheels completely came off the wagon at double-A. For Carolina, Boxberger switched into a relief role and worked 29.2 innings, posting an alarming 8.49 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 6.7 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, and 1.05 GB/FB ratio. Even though the sample size is small, the loss of control is somewhat troubling. His walk rate jumped by roughly 4 batters per nine innings. Obviously, double-A hitters are much more advanced, which when coupled with a heavier workload may explain the decline in command. If so, then more experience should largely resolve the problem. On the plus side, his strikeout rate remained gaudy even against more experienced hitters.
Repertoire and Mechanics
Boxberger works with four solid pitches. He throws a 91-93 mph four seam fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, an 82-84 mph slider, and a circle changeup with good late sink. His fastball velocity goes up a tick when he works out of the bullpen, which makes him an intriguing possibility in high leverage innings.
Here is a great look at Boxberger in action during the AFL courtesy of David Pratt on Vimeo:
As you can see, Boxberger grades out pretty well in pitching mechanics. He is fundamentally sound and fairly conventional, which is never a bad thing in a pitching prospect. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and somewhat towards first base, which operates to unweight his right leg allowing him to rotate his right foot down on the rubber. I'm not entirely sure when pitchers started to forgo an actual step back towards second base with their glove side foot to begin the motion, but I don't see the new trend as being an improvement. I suppose it was done with an eye towards reducing extraneous movement to conserve a pitcher's stamina, but I think the step back makes the motion more fluid and may possibly generate more momentum for the pitch. But, I suppose pitching coaches these days prefer an economy of movement, as the fewer moving parts the fewer chances for the motion to get out of sync.
The defining characteristic of Boxberger's delivery remains his leg kick. He brings his knee up well passed parallel, essentially all the way up to his chest, which helps creates substantial potential energy to impart on the baseball. Additionally, he incorporates significant coil by utilizing a sizable hip rotation. At the apex of his leg kick, the line of his hips almost runs on a line from 3rd to 1st. This high leg kick and significant coil are usually pure positives, as they generate, respectively, potential energy and tension at apex of the delivery. The energy that they generate can then be transferred to the baseball. However, in Boxberger's case, their severity might actually be creating a problem.
The severity of his coil and the height of his leg kick may ultimately help explain his inconsistent command. Due to the height of his leg kick and the severity of his coil, Boxberger is unable to unpack his leg kick quick enough to get into proper throwing position. Simply put, at the apex of his motion, Boxberger has his knee near his chest and such a significant coil that he shows his back to the hitter, which means that he has farther to go to get back into proper throwing position. Since his coil is more significant than typically seen, he has much farther to go to get back in position. Unfortunately, he doesn't quite make it all the way back into good throwing position.
Boxberger's stride foot lands too far to the third base side of the mound, which results in a closed-off throwing position. As a result, Boxberger is forced to throw across his body. This type of issue can frequently cause inconsistency in command. In addition, the closed off throwing position leads to inefficiency in transferring the stored up potential energy to the baseball. His momentum is somewhat checked by the need to throw around his body. Instead of his momentum going straight back and straight through, it instead has to somewhat work around his body. This inefficiency not only leads to inconsistent command, but also less than peak velocity and requires more work to generate the velocity that is created.
Another potential reason for the inconsistent command is his arm slot. Boxberger throws from a high three-quarter arm slot, which when coupled with the need to throw across his body gives him something of a cross-fire delivery. It's difficult to maintain a consistent arm slot and work effectively to both sides of the plate with a cross-fire delivery. Boxberger also has an overall looseness to his arm action, which, at times, can make his cross-fire delivery look like he is slinging the ball.
Odd as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Boxberger reduce his coil. Everything a pitcher does before the apex of his delivery is done with an eye towards building up energy, while everything done after apex is done with an eye towards imparting that stored energy to the baseball. I don't usually advocate that a player reduce the energy he creates before the apex, but Boxberger currently cannot get around fast enough from his coiled position to get back into proper throwing position. If he lessens his coil, then he will have more time for his body to come around and his plant foot to land in proper position. And, if he eliminated his closed off throwing position, then he might see an improvement in control. Additionally, he might also be able to maintain his current velocity, as whatever the new motion would lose in potential energy might be offset by a more efficient transfer of that energy to the baseball. Less energy created, but more efficiently imparted.
One other issue that I see in Boxberger's delivery is the length of his stride. It just seems too short for a pitcher of his stature and stuff. The length of the stride is directly related to the pitcher's ability to accelerate towards homeplate. The forward acceleration of the lower half is transferred to the ball by the pitching arm. Given Boxberger's height and repertoire, he should be more of a power pitcher than he seems to be. Part of that stems from his less than ideal acceleration to the plate. If he lengthened his stride, then he would get a stronger, more aggressive push off the rubber and generate better velocity. Pitchers who fit the "power pitcher" profile traditionally have longer strides. They typically generate velocity with strong lower-half drive. Here is a look at two players who generate very good velocity with strong, aggressive strides:
When you compare the stride angles of Aroldis Chapman and Tim Lincecum with that of Brad Boxberger, you can see how much longer and more aggressive they are with their strides. In fact, they seem to almost jump off the rubber towards the plate, which is part of how they are able to generate upper 90s (or, in Chapman's case, 100s) velocity.
While Boxberger might benefit from a longer stride, he likely wouldn't be able to simply lengthen his stride, as the closed off throwing position prohibits it. As a result, he'd have to open up his throwing position before he could appreciably lengthen his stride. It is much more difficult to throw across/around your body if you are fully extended, so many pitchers who work from a closed off position utilize shorter strides. Boxberger fits the bill. He uses a shorter stride in response to his closed off throwing position, which ultimately gives his delivery a more upright look.
Here is another look at Boxberger, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues on youtube:
Random Thoughts and Additional Considerations
I'll admit that I don't quite know what to make of Boxberger yet. Is he a starter or a reliever? Does he fit the "power pitcher" profile? Can he be a power pitcher with those mechanics? If not, does his command preclude him from being more of a finesse pitcher? Or, will he be best utilized in short bursts in high leverage innings?
Overall, Boxberger has a lot of what you look for in a pitching prospect. In fact, going down the list, you can tick off the majority of the boxes. So, a lot of the individual pieces are there, he just needs to pull them together and refine them. It'll be interesting to follow his development and see how the Reds minor league staff handle him. In the end, I suspect he has #3 starter ceiling in the rotation or high-leverage inning potential out of the pen.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, the 2010 season provided more questions than answers on Brad Boxberger. I knew heading into the season that he was a solid pitching prospect, but the circumstances surrounding his season foreclosed the possibility that it would serve as a meaningful data point. He thrived at a lower level and struggled at a higher one, but he also changed roles in the jump from one level to the next. So, were the struggles the result of the advanced competition, the change in roles, the heavier workload resulting from his first full season in professional ball, or some combination thereof? Unfortunately, the sample size is simply too small for us to draw any definitive conclusions. As a result, the 2011 season will be a return engagement for us to figure out exactly what we have in Brad Boxberger and how he should be properly used.
For now, Boxberger has done enough to warrant his return to the 13th spot on the list. If, in the 2011 season, he performs like he did in the first part of 2010, then he'll likely move up the list. On the other hand, he could easily slid well down the list if he once again pitches like he did in the latter portion of 2010.
Height 6-2, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 5/27/1988
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #13
In a system suddenly running a bit thin in the pitching department, Brad Boxberger grades out as one of the best. He is a polished college pitcher out of a legendary college program (USC). He comes from a baseball bloodlines, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Add in an impressive, albeit inconsistent, repertoire of pitches and all the ingredients needed for an impressive career are present.
Boxberger didn't pitch professionally in 2009, so the 2010 season represented his first taste of full season ball. The Reds sent him to high-A Lynchburg to start off the 2010 season.
2010 Season
In 2010, Boxberger broke quickly out of the gates at high-A Lynchburg. Working almost exclusively as a starter, he tossed 62.0 innings in which he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9, and a 1.63 GB/FB. Obviously, it was a stellar performance, as he piled up the strikeouts, limited the walks, and induced ground balls at a high rate. Given his impressive strikeout and walk rates, his WHIP looks surprisingly high, so it's not all that surprising that his hit luck was poor, as evidenced by his .346 BABIP.
As a polished college prospect, it wasn't unexpected that Boxberger would thrive in high-A ball, but it was nonetheless reassuring. Even if a prospect is reasonably expected to perform at a certain level, we shouldn't withhold credit from him when he actually does it. Living up to expectations isn't always the easiest thing to do, but Boxberger managed to do just that. Iin the process, he earned a promotion to double-A ball to finish out the year. College pitcher or not, advancing all the way to double-A ball in your first professional season is an accomplishment.
Unfortunately, the wheels completely came off the wagon at double-A. For Carolina, Boxberger switched into a relief role and worked 29.2 innings, posting an alarming 8.49 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 6.7 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, and 1.05 GB/FB ratio. Even though the sample size is small, the loss of control is somewhat troubling. His walk rate jumped by roughly 4 batters per nine innings. Obviously, double-A hitters are much more advanced, which when coupled with a heavier workload may explain the decline in command. If so, then more experience should largely resolve the problem. On the plus side, his strikeout rate remained gaudy even against more experienced hitters.
Repertoire and Mechanics
Boxberger works with four solid pitches. He throws a 91-93 mph four seam fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, an 82-84 mph slider, and a circle changeup with good late sink. His fastball velocity goes up a tick when he works out of the bullpen, which makes him an intriguing possibility in high leverage innings.
Here is a great look at Boxberger in action during the AFL courtesy of David Pratt on Vimeo:
Bradley Boxberger - Arizona Fall League - 2009 from David Pratt on Vimeo.
As you can see, Boxberger grades out pretty well in pitching mechanics. He is fundamentally sound and fairly conventional, which is never a bad thing in a pitching prospect. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and somewhat towards first base, which operates to unweight his right leg allowing him to rotate his right foot down on the rubber. I'm not entirely sure when pitchers started to forgo an actual step back towards second base with their glove side foot to begin the motion, but I don't see the new trend as being an improvement. I suppose it was done with an eye towards reducing extraneous movement to conserve a pitcher's stamina, but I think the step back makes the motion more fluid and may possibly generate more momentum for the pitch. But, I suppose pitching coaches these days prefer an economy of movement, as the fewer moving parts the fewer chances for the motion to get out of sync.
The defining characteristic of Boxberger's delivery remains his leg kick. He brings his knee up well passed parallel, essentially all the way up to his chest, which helps creates substantial potential energy to impart on the baseball. Additionally, he incorporates significant coil by utilizing a sizable hip rotation. At the apex of his leg kick, the line of his hips almost runs on a line from 3rd to 1st. This high leg kick and significant coil are usually pure positives, as they generate, respectively, potential energy and tension at apex of the delivery. The energy that they generate can then be transferred to the baseball. However, in Boxberger's case, their severity might actually be creating a problem.
The severity of his coil and the height of his leg kick may ultimately help explain his inconsistent command. Due to the height of his leg kick and the severity of his coil, Boxberger is unable to unpack his leg kick quick enough to get into proper throwing position. Simply put, at the apex of his motion, Boxberger has his knee near his chest and such a significant coil that he shows his back to the hitter, which means that he has farther to go to get back into proper throwing position. Since his coil is more significant than typically seen, he has much farther to go to get back in position. Unfortunately, he doesn't quite make it all the way back into good throwing position.
Boxberger's stride foot lands too far to the third base side of the mound, which results in a closed-off throwing position. As a result, Boxberger is forced to throw across his body. This type of issue can frequently cause inconsistency in command. In addition, the closed off throwing position leads to inefficiency in transferring the stored up potential energy to the baseball. His momentum is somewhat checked by the need to throw around his body. Instead of his momentum going straight back and straight through, it instead has to somewhat work around his body. This inefficiency not only leads to inconsistent command, but also less than peak velocity and requires more work to generate the velocity that is created.
Another potential reason for the inconsistent command is his arm slot. Boxberger throws from a high three-quarter arm slot, which when coupled with the need to throw across his body gives him something of a cross-fire delivery. It's difficult to maintain a consistent arm slot and work effectively to both sides of the plate with a cross-fire delivery. Boxberger also has an overall looseness to his arm action, which, at times, can make his cross-fire delivery look like he is slinging the ball.
Odd as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Boxberger reduce his coil. Everything a pitcher does before the apex of his delivery is done with an eye towards building up energy, while everything done after apex is done with an eye towards imparting that stored energy to the baseball. I don't usually advocate that a player reduce the energy he creates before the apex, but Boxberger currently cannot get around fast enough from his coiled position to get back into proper throwing position. If he lessens his coil, then he will have more time for his body to come around and his plant foot to land in proper position. And, if he eliminated his closed off throwing position, then he might see an improvement in control. Additionally, he might also be able to maintain his current velocity, as whatever the new motion would lose in potential energy might be offset by a more efficient transfer of that energy to the baseball. Less energy created, but more efficiently imparted.
One other issue that I see in Boxberger's delivery is the length of his stride. It just seems too short for a pitcher of his stature and stuff. The length of the stride is directly related to the pitcher's ability to accelerate towards homeplate. The forward acceleration of the lower half is transferred to the ball by the pitching arm. Given Boxberger's height and repertoire, he should be more of a power pitcher than he seems to be. Part of that stems from his less than ideal acceleration to the plate. If he lengthened his stride, then he would get a stronger, more aggressive push off the rubber and generate better velocity. Pitchers who fit the "power pitcher" profile traditionally have longer strides. They typically generate velocity with strong lower-half drive. Here is a look at two players who generate very good velocity with strong, aggressive strides:
When you compare the stride angles of Aroldis Chapman and Tim Lincecum with that of Brad Boxberger, you can see how much longer and more aggressive they are with their strides. In fact, they seem to almost jump off the rubber towards the plate, which is part of how they are able to generate upper 90s (or, in Chapman's case, 100s) velocity.
While Boxberger might benefit from a longer stride, he likely wouldn't be able to simply lengthen his stride, as the closed off throwing position prohibits it. As a result, he'd have to open up his throwing position before he could appreciably lengthen his stride. It is much more difficult to throw across/around your body if you are fully extended, so many pitchers who work from a closed off position utilize shorter strides. Boxberger fits the bill. He uses a shorter stride in response to his closed off throwing position, which ultimately gives his delivery a more upright look.
Here is another look at Boxberger, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues on youtube:
Random Thoughts and Additional Considerations
I'll admit that I don't quite know what to make of Boxberger yet. Is he a starter or a reliever? Does he fit the "power pitcher" profile? Can he be a power pitcher with those mechanics? If not, does his command preclude him from being more of a finesse pitcher? Or, will he be best utilized in short bursts in high leverage innings?
Overall, Boxberger has a lot of what you look for in a pitching prospect. In fact, going down the list, you can tick off the majority of the boxes. So, a lot of the individual pieces are there, he just needs to pull them together and refine them. It'll be interesting to follow his development and see how the Reds minor league staff handle him. In the end, I suspect he has #3 starter ceiling in the rotation or high-leverage inning potential out of the pen.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, the 2010 season provided more questions than answers on Brad Boxberger. I knew heading into the season that he was a solid pitching prospect, but the circumstances surrounding his season foreclosed the possibility that it would serve as a meaningful data point. He thrived at a lower level and struggled at a higher one, but he also changed roles in the jump from one level to the next. So, were the struggles the result of the advanced competition, the change in roles, the heavier workload resulting from his first full season in professional ball, or some combination thereof? Unfortunately, the sample size is simply too small for us to draw any definitive conclusions. As a result, the 2011 season will be a return engagement for us to figure out exactly what we have in Brad Boxberger and how he should be properly used.
For now, Boxberger has done enough to warrant his return to the 13th spot on the list. If, in the 2011 season, he performs like he did in the first part of 2010, then he'll likely move up the list. On the other hand, he could easily slid well down the list if he once again pitches like he did in the latter portion of 2010.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
2010 Top Prospect List: #13 Brad Boxberger, rhp
Brad Boxberger
Height 6-2, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 5/27/1988
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: Not Ranked
In the early rounds of the 2009 draft, the Reds focused on rebuilding the pitching depth in the
system. They selected Mike Leake and Brad Boxberger, both of whom were polished college pitchers and came with a lower degree of risk. Given the lack of pitching depth in the system, the philosophy of acquiring lower risk pitching prospects made sense.
Boxberger made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League after a successful collegiate career for the USC Trojans.
DRAFT POSITION AND PHYSICAL BUILD
With the 43rd overall pick in the 2009 draft, the Cincinnati Reds selected University of Southern California pitcher Brad Boxberger.
Boxberger was a draft eligible junior who is listed at 6-2 and 200 lbs and both bats right and throws right. He joined Mike Leake to give the Reds a one-two punch of polished college pitching prospects in the first two rounds.
Boxberger certainly has the bloodlines for success, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Brad was drafted out of high school by the Royals in the 20th round of the 2006 draft, but he decided to follow in his father's footsteps by attending USC.
COLLEGE CAREER
Boxberger jumped right into the starting rotation as a freshman and quickly proved that he belonged. He started 14 games and worked in 90.0 innings posting a 3.20 ERA with a 72/34 K/BB ratio in a tough Pac-10 conference. His performance was so strong that he took over the Friday night starter duties for the Trojans.
His sophomore season didn't go quite as well, as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Over 18 total games and 9 starts, Boxberger posted a 6.12 ERA in 50.0 innings with a 52/26 K/BB ratio. He missed roughly 3 weeks due to elbow soreness and ultimately ended the season as the team's closer.
During his junior season, Boxberger showed no lingering effects of his elbow injury. He went back to starting fulltime, making 14 starts and tossing 94.0 innings. He posted a 3.16 ERA with a 99/50 K/BB ratio. His performance was strong enough to earn him All-Pac-10 honors and reestablish his MLB prospect status.
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
Boxberger made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League for the Peoria Saguaros. It was far from smooth sailing, as he worked in 12.2 innings and posted a 11.37 ERA. On the less disturbing side, he posted a 13/7 K/BB ratio and a 1.18 GB/FB ratio. His longest outing of the AFL season was 3.0 innings, so he was limited to short outings.
Of course, it's not as bad as it might seem, as the sample size is very small, the pitchers are typically fatigued after a long season of throwing, and the AFL is a notorious hitter's league. So, his performance should be taken with a grain of salt. At the very least, he got his feet wet and has a better understanding of what it takes to succeed at the professional level. Hopefully, he'll be better prepared when the 2010 season gets underway.
ARSENAL AND MECHANICS
Boxberger works with three solid pitches that have plus potential. He throws a 91-93 mph four seam fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, an 82-84 mph slider, and a circle changeup that has good late sink to it. He needs to demonstrate more consistency with his pitches, especially his offspeed offerings. His overall command also needs improvement, as it tends to come and go. But, he has a good feel for pitching, which should help his development. Even so, his stuff may play better in the bullpen where he doesn't have to hold anything back, which could improve his velocity a tick or two. In his short stints in the AFL, his fastball velocity has topped 95+, even reaching up to 97 mph.
On the mound, Boxberger uses fairly conventional mechanics. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and rotates his right foot on the rubber. He then brings his left leg up into his leg kick, which includes significant hip rotation. In fact, his leg kick includes so much hip rotation that he almost points his knee at the second base and shows his back to the hitters. It's not quite that extreme, but it's certainly heading in that direction.
Here's a look at him in action:
He keeps his hands up near his chin until after his leg kick and he breaks his hands. He has a good arm swing and keeps his elbow in good relation to his shoulder. Despite his significant hip rotation, his lower body drive off the mound isn't strong and his stride is rather short, both of which result in him bleeding potential energy from his delivery. In addition, his shorter stride leaves him with a very upright delivery and follow through. Ultimately, his lack of a strong push off the mound prevents him from utilizing his body as effectively as he could in his delivery, which is somewhat surprising because of the significant hip rotation that he uses.
Boxberger isn't very tall, so he doesn't have the advantage of pitching on a downward plane. In addition, he doesn't come completely over the top, but rather utilizes a high three-quarter arm slot with a free-and-easy arm action. In fact, his arm action is so loose that at times it looks like he slings the ball to the plate, which could help explain his inconsistency.
Here is another great look at Boxberger in action during the AFL courtesy of David Pratt on Vimeo:
Overall, his pitching mechanics are fairly clean and there aren't any significant red flags, but he could do a better job of throwing with his body to minimize stress on the arm. In addition, he has a bit of looseness to his overall delivery that could cause problems with consistency. The fact that he suffered from an elbow injury in college isn't a great sign, but it wasn't serious and he doesn't seem to be suffering from any lingering effects.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Boxberger has the ability and repertoire to work as a starting pitcher, but may ultimately profile better as a high leverage reliever. Still, the Reds will give him every chance to work as a starter, which would be better for his development and give him more value to the organization if he can stick in that role.
For now, Boxberger's polish and varied repertoire earn him the #13 slot on the list.
Height 6-2, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 5/27/1988
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: Not Ranked
In the early rounds of the 2009 draft, the Reds focused on rebuilding the pitching depth in the
system. They selected Mike Leake and Brad Boxberger, both of whom were polished college pitchers and came with a lower degree of risk. Given the lack of pitching depth in the system, the philosophy of acquiring lower risk pitching prospects made sense.Boxberger made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League after a successful collegiate career for the USC Trojans.
DRAFT POSITION AND PHYSICAL BUILD
With the 43rd overall pick in the 2009 draft, the Cincinnati Reds selected University of Southern California pitcher Brad Boxberger.
Boxberger was a draft eligible junior who is listed at 6-2 and 200 lbs and both bats right and throws right. He joined Mike Leake to give the Reds a one-two punch of polished college pitching prospects in the first two rounds.
Boxberger certainly has the bloodlines for success, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Brad was drafted out of high school by the Royals in the 20th round of the 2006 draft, but he decided to follow in his father's footsteps by attending USC.
COLLEGE CAREER
Boxberger jumped right into the starting rotation as a freshman and quickly proved that he belonged. He started 14 games and worked in 90.0 innings posting a 3.20 ERA with a 72/34 K/BB ratio in a tough Pac-10 conference. His performance was so strong that he took over the Friday night starter duties for the Trojans.
His sophomore season didn't go quite as well, as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Over 18 total games and 9 starts, Boxberger posted a 6.12 ERA in 50.0 innings with a 52/26 K/BB ratio. He missed roughly 3 weeks due to elbow soreness and ultimately ended the season as the team's closer.
During his junior season, Boxberger showed no lingering effects of his elbow injury. He went back to starting fulltime, making 14 starts and tossing 94.0 innings. He posted a 3.16 ERA with a 99/50 K/BB ratio. His performance was strong enough to earn him All-Pac-10 honors and reestablish his MLB prospect status.
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
Boxberger made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League for the Peoria Saguaros. It was far from smooth sailing, as he worked in 12.2 innings and posted a 11.37 ERA. On the less disturbing side, he posted a 13/7 K/BB ratio and a 1.18 GB/FB ratio. His longest outing of the AFL season was 3.0 innings, so he was limited to short outings.
Of course, it's not as bad as it might seem, as the sample size is very small, the pitchers are typically fatigued after a long season of throwing, and the AFL is a notorious hitter's league. So, his performance should be taken with a grain of salt. At the very least, he got his feet wet and has a better understanding of what it takes to succeed at the professional level. Hopefully, he'll be better prepared when the 2010 season gets underway.
ARSENAL AND MECHANICS
Boxberger works with three solid pitches that have plus potential. He throws a 91-93 mph four seam fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, an 82-84 mph slider, and a circle changeup that has good late sink to it. He needs to demonstrate more consistency with his pitches, especially his offspeed offerings. His overall command also needs improvement, as it tends to come and go. But, he has a good feel for pitching, which should help his development. Even so, his stuff may play better in the bullpen where he doesn't have to hold anything back, which could improve his velocity a tick or two. In his short stints in the AFL, his fastball velocity has topped 95+, even reaching up to 97 mph.
On the mound, Boxberger uses fairly conventional mechanics. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and rotates his right foot on the rubber. He then brings his left leg up into his leg kick, which includes significant hip rotation. In fact, his leg kick includes so much hip rotation that he almost points his knee at the second base and shows his back to the hitters. It's not quite that extreme, but it's certainly heading in that direction.
Here's a look at him in action:
He keeps his hands up near his chin until after his leg kick and he breaks his hands. He has a good arm swing and keeps his elbow in good relation to his shoulder. Despite his significant hip rotation, his lower body drive off the mound isn't strong and his stride is rather short, both of which result in him bleeding potential energy from his delivery. In addition, his shorter stride leaves him with a very upright delivery and follow through. Ultimately, his lack of a strong push off the mound prevents him from utilizing his body as effectively as he could in his delivery, which is somewhat surprising because of the significant hip rotation that he uses.
Boxberger isn't very tall, so he doesn't have the advantage of pitching on a downward plane. In addition, he doesn't come completely over the top, but rather utilizes a high three-quarter arm slot with a free-and-easy arm action. In fact, his arm action is so loose that at times it looks like he slings the ball to the plate, which could help explain his inconsistency.
Here is another great look at Boxberger in action during the AFL courtesy of David Pratt on Vimeo:
Bradley Boxberger - Arizona Fall League - 2009 from David Pratt on Vimeo.
Overall, his pitching mechanics are fairly clean and there aren't any significant red flags, but he could do a better job of throwing with his body to minimize stress on the arm. In addition, he has a bit of looseness to his overall delivery that could cause problems with consistency. The fact that he suffered from an elbow injury in college isn't a great sign, but it wasn't serious and he doesn't seem to be suffering from any lingering effects.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Boxberger has the ability and repertoire to work as a starting pitcher, but may ultimately profile better as a high leverage reliever. Still, the Reds will give him every chance to work as a starter, which would be better for his development and give him more value to the organization if he can stick in that role.
For now, Boxberger's polish and varied repertoire earn him the #13 slot on the list.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Draft Musings: Leake and Boxberger sign on the dotted line
Well, the card carrying members of the Reds nation can rest easy today. This weekend, the organization inked their top two picks from the 2009 draft, both of whom could provide a nice boost to the farm system.
REDS AND MLB DRAFT THOUGHTS
It seems that every year fans get up in arms and worry that the draftees won't sign, but every year the negotiations drag out to the last hour. Players electing not to sign and heading back into the draft the following year is mostly definitely the exception, rather than the rule. Agents use the paranoia of the organizations and fans to drive up the asking price, so it's not necessarily in the players' best interests to sign early. This year, the Reds got it done with a day or two to spare.
The Reds signed RHP Mike Leake to a contract that includes a $2.27M signing bonus, which was ~$200,000 over his MLB slot recommendation. The Reds reeled in RHP Brad Boxberger for $857,000.
Given that Leake signed for only ~$200K above MLB's slot recommendation, it's easy to wonder why the deal didn't get done earlier. It hardly seems like he was making unreasonable demands or driving a hard bargain. One possible reason for the delay in the signing could be the strategy of MLB of not approving contracts that exceed slot recommendations until right before the deadline.
Before the draft takes place, MLB establishes recommendations for signing bonuses for draft picks. This tactic is designed to keep costs down and was implemented by the commissioner in 2000. According to Baseball America, first round signing bonuses rose 23.3% in the 1990s, but only 3.9% in the 2000s. So, at least in the big picture, it's a strategy that has worked. However, it's also a tactic that has rewarded teams willing to run afoul of MLB by exceeding slot recommendations. So, the benefits and burdens haven't necessarily fallen on all teams equally, which is a problem given that the amateur draft is designed to remedying competitive imbalance.
It'll be interesting to see how the Reds handle Mike Leake for the rest of 2009. I've heard conflicting reports that he'll pitch in 2009 and that the Reds will shut him down. If the tendinitis he was battling has completely subsided, then I'd like to see him pitch a few professional innings in 2009.
Given how conservative the Reds are with their prospects, I'd expect both Leake and Boxberger to start out in the Pioneer League or low A-ball.
NATIONALS AND STEPHEN STRASBURG THOUGHTS
The Nationals find themselves in a rather interesting conundrum in regard to their first round pick, Stephen "best pitching prospect ever" Strasburg.
Short-Term Considerations
First, it must be said, that it's in the best interests of BOTH Strasburg and the Nationals to get a deal done.
The Nationals are a recent transplant to Washington, D.C. and it hasn't gone well. They have a new ballpark, which means that they will be in D.C. for the long haul. However, the Nationals are in dire need of a shot of legitimacy. They "won" the right to draft Strasburg by losing the more games than any other team in 2008. They are on pace to "win" the first pick in next year's draft by again dropping more games than any other organization.
As for Strasburg, he was picked first overall, so he's not going to improve his draft status by returning to the draft in 2010. In fact, unless he would be willing to sign a "redraft approval" to allow the Nationals to draft him again in 2010, Strasburg would be selected no higher than 3rd. The Nationals will likely get the #1 overall pick on merit and they would be awarded the #2 overall pick as compensation for not signing Strasburg.
It's difficult to envision anyone giving Strasburg significantly more money when he is the 3rd overall pick in 2010 than when he was the 1st overall pick in 2009. In addition, given that he is such a polished prospect, Strasburg would likely spend the entire 2010 season in the Nationals' rotation. That would give him an entire year of service time, which would move him one year closer to free agency. If Strasburg sits out the entire 2010 season, then he will not earn any service time. Instead of hitting free agency in 6 years, he will instead require 7 years. And, that extra year will cost one season of "prime of his career" salary. By sitting out, Strasburg will cost himself one year of free agent level earnings (maybe ~$15-20M) that he'll never get back.
To make sitting out a year worthwhile, Strasburg would have to get ~$10M more from the team that drafts him in 2010 than what he would receive from the Nationals. Obviously, there is an argument to be made that Strasburg should hold out for more because he could get injured during the course of his career and never reach free agency. However, that argument would seem to be countered rather effectively by the chance that Strasburg could get injured pitching in independent ball while waiting for the 2010 draft and never get a big pay day at all.
In short, Strasburg and the Nationals need each other.
Long-Term Considerations
However, there are long-term considerations at play that may derail the deal.
Clearly, uber-agent Scott Boras is trying to use Strasburg to completely redefine the established benchmarks for MLB signing bonuses. If he can get Strasburg significantly more money than any previous draftee, then that will have a significant trickle down effect on all high draft picks in the future. And, of course, on Boras's bank account. For Boras, Strasburg isn't simply another player, but rather a significant opportunity. Strasburg is the best chance Boras has had to explode the draftee pay scale in MLB.
As for the Nationals, they too have future considerations to take into account. The Nationals are bad enough that they will likely receive the 1st overall pick in 2010. Fortunately for the Nats, they will likely again have the opportunity to draft a "once in a generation" talent in catching prospect Bryce Harper.
However, it's obvious that the starting point for the negotiations with Bryce Harper will be the contract given to Stephen Strasburg. In essence, the Nationals are setting their own benchmark for their negotiations with Bryce Harper. Whatever they give to Strasburg will be the floor in their negotiations with Harper. So, if they exceed the previous signing bonus record by $5M to sign Strasburg, then they'll have to do it again in 2010.
Ultimately, it makes too much sense for both sides not to get a deal done, but it'll go down to the final minute. Regardless, given the escalating cost of the #1 overall pick in both the NFL and MLB, expect each league to address the issue in the next round of Collective Bargaining. The draft is a mechanism for addressing competitive imbalance, but it has to be considered broken if the worst teams cannot sign the best prospects.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
2009 Draft: Brad Boxberger, rhp
With the 43rd overall pick in the 2009 draft, the Cincinnati Reds selected University of Southern California pitcher Brad Boxberger.
Boxberger was a draft eligible junior who is listed at 6-2 and 200 lbs, but likely stands closer to 6-0. He both bats right and throws right. He joins Mike Leake to give the Reds a one-two punch of polished college pitching prospects in their first two picks.
Boxberger certainly has the bloodlines for success, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Brad was drafted out of high school by the Royals in the 20th round of the 2006 draft, but he chose instead to follow in his father's footsteps by attending USC.
COLLEGE CAREER
Boxberger jumped right into the starting rotation as a freshman and quickly proved that he belonged. He started 14 games and worked in 90.0 innings posting a 3.20 ERA with a 72/34 K/BB ratio in a tough Pac-10 conference. His performance was so strong that he took over the Friday night starter duties for the Trojans.
His sophomore season didn't go quite as well, as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Over 18 total games and 9 starts, Boxberger posted a 6.12 ERA in 50.0 innings with a 52/26 K/BB ratio. He missed roughly 3 weeks due to elbow soreness and ultimately ended the season as the team's closer.
During his junior season, Boxberger showed no lingering effects of his elbow injury. He went back to starting fulltime, making 14 starts and tossing 94.0 innings. He posted a 3.16 ERA with a 99/50 K/BB ratio. His performance was strong enough to earn him All-Pac-10 honors and reestablish his MLB prospect status.
ARSENAL AND MECHANICS
Boxberger works with three solid pitches that have plus potential. He throws a 91-93 mph fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, and a circle changeup that has good late sink to it. He needs to demonstrate more consistency with his pitches, especially his offspeed offerings. His overall command also needs improvement, as it tends to come and go. But, he has a good feel for pitching, which should help his development.
On the mound, Boxberger uses fairly conventional mechanics. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and rotates his right foot on the rubber. He then brings his left leg up into his leg kick, which includes significant hip rotation. In fact, his leg kick includes so much hip rotation that he almost points his knee at the second base and shows his back to the hitters. It's not quite that extreme, but it's certainly heading in that direction.
Here's a look at him in action:
He keeps his hands up near his chin until after his leg kick and he breaks his hands. He has a good arm swing and keeps his elbow in good relation to his shoulder. His lower body drive off the mound isn't strong and his stride is rather short, which leaves him with a very upright delivery and follow through. Ultimately, his lack of a strong push off the mound prevents him from utilizing his body as effectively as he could, which is somewhat surprising because of the significant hip rotation that he uses.
Boxberger isn't very tall, so he doesn't have the advantage of pitching on a downward plane. In addition, he doesn't come completely over the top, but rather utilizes a high three-quarter arm slot with a free-and-easy arm action. In fact, his arm action is so loose that at times it looks like he slings the ball to the plate, which could help explain his inconsistency.
Overall, his pitching mechanics are fairly clean and there aren't any significant red flags, but he could do a better job of throwing with his body to minimize stress on the arm. The fact that he suffered from an elbow injury in college isn't a great sign, but it wasn't serious and he doesn't seem to be suffering from any lingering effects.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Boxberger is an intriguing prospect, but I'm not entirely sure what we have yet. Prior to his strong junior season, many scouts projected him as more of a reliever, but his performance last year changed some minds. Part of me looks at Boxberger and sees a new version of Sam LeCure. A good, polished college pitcher whose game ultimately didn't translate very well to the professional ranks. However, Boxberger undeniably has better stuff and if things break right in his development he has the chance for two or three plus pitches. At the very least, he has a couple ticks in velocity on LeCure, which can only help his chances.
It'll be interesting to see how Boxberger's game translates to the professional ranks, but he certainly adds another interesting arm to a Reds farm system in need of them. Boxberger and Mike Leake should add quality and depth to the list of pitching prospects in the system.
incinnati Reds selected University of Southern California pitcher Brad Boxberger.Boxberger was a draft eligible junior who is listed at 6-2 and 200 lbs, but likely stands closer to 6-0. He both bats right and throws right. He joins Mike Leake to give the Reds a one-two punch of polished college pitching prospects in their first two picks.
Boxberger certainly has the bloodlines for success, as his father Rod went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP award for the 1978 national championship USC team. Brad was drafted out of high school by the Royals in the 20th round of the 2006 draft, but he chose instead to follow in his father's footsteps by attending USC.
COLLEGE CAREER
Boxberger jumped right into the starting rotation as a freshman and quickly proved that he belonged. He started 14 games and worked in 90.0 innings posting a 3.20 ERA with a 72/34 K/BB ratio in a tough Pac-10 conference. His performance was so strong that he took over the Friday night starter duties for the Trojans.
His sophomore season didn't go quite as well, as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Over 18 total games and 9 starts, Boxberger posted a 6.12 ERA in 50.0 innings with a 52/26 K/BB ratio. He missed roughly 3 weeks due to elbow soreness and ultimately ended the season as the team's closer.
During his junior season, Boxberger showed no lingering effects of his elbow injury. He went back to starting fulltime, making 14 starts and tossing 94.0 innings. He posted a 3.16 ERA with a 99/50 K/BB ratio. His performance was strong enough to earn him All-Pac-10 honors and reestablish his MLB prospect status.
ARSENAL AND MECHANICS
Boxberger works with three solid pitches that have plus potential. He throws a 91-93 mph fastball with good movement that touches 94 on occasion, a 78-80 mph curveball, and a circle changeup that has good late sink to it. He needs to demonstrate more consistency with his pitches, especially his offspeed offerings. His overall command also needs improvement, as it tends to come and go. But, he has a good feel for pitching, which should help his development.
On the mound, Boxberger uses fairly conventional mechanics. To start his delivery, he moves his left foot forward and rotates his right foot on the rubber. He then brings his left leg up into his leg kick, which includes significant hip rotation. In fact, his leg kick includes so much hip rotation that he almost points his knee at the second base and shows his back to the hitters. It's not quite that extreme, but it's certainly heading in that direction.
Here's a look at him in action:
He keeps his hands up near his chin until after his leg kick and he breaks his hands. He has a good arm swing and keeps his elbow in good relation to his shoulder. His lower body drive off the mound isn't strong and his stride is rather short, which leaves him with a very upright delivery and follow through. Ultimately, his lack of a strong push off the mound prevents him from utilizing his body as effectively as he could, which is somewhat surprising because of the significant hip rotation that he uses.
Boxberger isn't very tall, so he doesn't have the advantage of pitching on a downward plane. In addition, he doesn't come completely over the top, but rather utilizes a high three-quarter arm slot with a free-and-easy arm action. In fact, his arm action is so loose that at times it looks like he slings the ball to the plate, which could help explain his inconsistency.
Overall, his pitching mechanics are fairly clean and there aren't any significant red flags, but he could do a better job of throwing with his body to minimize stress on the arm. The fact that he suffered from an elbow injury in college isn't a great sign, but it wasn't serious and he doesn't seem to be suffering from any lingering effects.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Boxberger is an intriguing prospect, but I'm not entirely sure what we have yet. Prior to his strong junior season, many scouts projected him as more of a reliever, but his performance last year changed some minds. Part of me looks at Boxberger and sees a new version of Sam LeCure. A good, polished college pitcher whose game ultimately didn't translate very well to the professional ranks. However, Boxberger undeniably has better stuff and if things break right in his development he has the chance for two or three plus pitches. At the very least, he has a couple ticks in velocity on LeCure, which can only help his chances.
It'll be interesting to see how Boxberger's game translates to the professional ranks, but he certainly adds another interesting arm to a Reds farm system in need of them. Boxberger and Mike Leake should add quality and depth to the list of pitching prospects in the system.
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