2015 Top 25 Prospects

Links for Top 25 Prospect Write-Ups for 2015:

1. Jesse Winker, of
2. Robert Stephenson, rhp
3. Raisel Iglesias, rhp
4.
5. Nick Howard, rhp
6. Alex Blandino, ss
7. Anthony DeSclafani, rhp
8. Kyle Waldrop, of/1b
9.
10.
11.
12.
13. Phillip Ervin, of
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20. Aristides, Aquino, of
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

2015 Top Prospect List: #13 Phillip Ervin, of

Courtesy: MILB.com

PHILLIP ERVIN

DOB: 7/15/1992
HEIGHT: 5-10, WEIGHT: 205, B/T: R/R


Phillip Ervin was drafted by the Reds with the 27th overall pick in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Samford University. Coming out of college, he was viewed as a player who could roll out of bed and hit .300. In fact, he rarely fell short of the .300 mark in his amateur career. The Reds were clearly gambling on what they viewed as a plus hit tool from a player who might be able to hold down an up-the-middle defensive position. 


Upon signing, Ervin was shipped out to the rookie Pioneer League, where he acquitted himself well for the Billings Mustangs, before finishing up the season strong with the Dayton Dragons. It was a solid professional debut for Ervin at the tail end of a long baseball season and he appeared poised for success in 2014. 



2014 SEASON

Phillip Ervin's 2014 season was mystifying. He finished up the 2013 season with a quick 43 AB cup of coffee with the low-A Dayton Dragons, during which time he hit .349/.451/.465/.916. The Reds sent him back to Dayton to start the season, but it's easy to imagine the organization thinking it would be a quick stop on the way up the ladder. It was anything but, as Ervin never escaped Dayton.

For the Dragons, he hit .237/.305/.376/.680 with 7 homers and a 110/46 K/BB ratio in 561 PAs. A polished college hitter striking out 19.6% of the time against low-A pitchers is a sizable red flag, especially for a player whose hit tool was supposed to carry him.

A bit of context *might* help Ervin here, as he underwent offseason surgery on his left wrist prior to the 2014 season. So, that might help explain his struggles, as his wrist was reportedly weaker than normal.

Here's what Jeff Graupe had to say about Ervin in an article by Mark Sheldon:

"I think Phillip's wrist bothered him early, more than he let on," Reds player development director Jeff Graupe said. "To his credit, he didn't make any excuses and played. It wasn't hurting, but maybe weak, coming off of the injury. He put himself in a hole, tried to generate and get four hits in every at-bat and chased it. He got away from being the process-oriented hitter he had been. I think he's better for it. I think he will have a good year, coming up. He's still one of the better offensive players in our system."

So, it's very possible that Ervin's season was impacted by his wrist and that may have prevented him from driving the ball or effectively using the entire field. With that in mind, here's a look at Ervin's 2014 spray chart, courtesy of MLBfarm.com:

Courtesy: MLBfarm.com

As for specific impressions, here are a few things that I saw in 2014:

• There are reports of Ervin being overly pull-conscious during the 2014 season, but that's not something I saw when watching him, nor does his spray chart really reflect it.
• Ervin seemed to struggle with the high fastball, both in laying off of it and in catching up to it. That may have something to do with his reported wrist issue or maybe it's just a pitch and location that he can't handle and needs to take.  
• His pitch recognition seemed solid, though somehow he seemed to struggle more with differentiating between fastballs and breaking balls than he did in identifying pitches in the strikezone vs. pitches outside of the strikezone. 
• On the plus side, he didn't chase pitches out of the strikezone very often. 
• On the downside, he was susceptible to getting out on the front foot too early when he was fooled on the breaking ball.
• A bit too often, Ervin was out on the front foot on breaking balls and then late on high fastballs, which is a tough combination for a hitter to overcome. 
• Ervin runs well, both on defense and on the bases. 

Despite his struggles, Ervin is likely ticketed for high-A Daytona in 2015, where he'll hope for better results. In this particular instance, it's too bad that the Reds moved out of Bakersfield, as Ervin's confidence might actually have benefited from hitting in a very hitter-friendly home park and league. Regardless, if Ervin's wrist was a significant factor in his performance, then his return to health might be all he needs to hit the ground running 2015.


SWING MECHANICS

At the plate, Ervin is conventional and compact, his swing doesn't involve a lot of extraneous movement. While being compact could help with being quick to the point of contact, it's difficult to imagine his swing generating good power. It's a swing that seems to be driven by the upper body much more than the lower body, which robs it of some power generation.

On some level, Ervin's swing reminds me of Indians prospect Clint Frazier. Frazier is renowned for his absurd bat speed, which he generates more with his hands and forearms than his lower body. Ervin settles for merely good bat speed, but his swing also feels like it's more hands and forearms than lower body. Like Clint Frazier, Ervin occasionally uses an abbreviated follow-through, almost cutting off the swing before it can finish more naturally. Clint Frazier's ability to generate plus-plus bat speed with his hands and forearms allows him to generate power, even if he doesn't utilize the lower half as effectively as other hitters. Ervin, on the other hand, doesn't generate that type of bat speed, so his inefficient use of the lower half limits the type of power he can generate.

At the plate, Ervin uses a slightly wider than shoulder-width stance. His pre-pitch stance involves a small bat waggle as he waits on the pitcher. The bat waggle involves bouncing his hands in an up-and-down movement, ideally finishing up in front of his right shoulder just before he strides forward. As the pitcher drives to the plate, Ervin uses a small stride forward to meet the pitch. As he strides, he draws his hands back and up in order to load up for the swing.

Once his stride foot lands, he starts to fire his hips. He's a bit inconsistent in driving his right elbow into his back hip, which is what syncs up the rotation of the hips to the upper body to power the swing. That inconsistency creates inefficiency in force generation and leaves his arms with more work to do in the swing. The farther the arms are away from the body, the slower the rotation of the core. The slower the rotation of the core, the less force imparted to the baseball.

In addition to that inconsistency, he occasionally cuts his follow-through short, which can also limit the force generated by the lower half. All of which means that his swing is driven more by the upper body, which can be problematic unless you have elite hand/bat speed. Inefficiency in generating force can prove even more problematic for a hitter, like Ervin, of smaller stature, as he's already going to have a harder time generating leverage and force in the swing.


Here's a look at Ervin in action during the 2013 season, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues on YouTube:







One thing I noticed during the 2014 season was that his bat waggle seemed just a bit larger and lower than it was in 2013. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any video to effectively demonstrate that slight change, but that's the impression I got from watching him play in 2014. Maybe it was made in response to his wrist injury. It wasn't apparent in every swing. Still, the slightly larger and lower waggle slightly increased the distance the hands had to be drawn back to load up for the swing. The farther the hands have to be drawn back, the farther they have to travel to reach the point of contact.

In the end, maybe 2014 was a perfect(ly ugly) storm of events for Phil Ervin:

1. A lingering wrist injury,
2. A swing that relies more heavily on the hands and upper body, and
3. The occasional use of a slower and longer movement to load the hands.


All of those factors could explain a lackluster, at best, 2014 season in which his performance declined across the board and he struggled to catch up to high fastballs. Or, maybe he simply wasn't as good as the organization thought he'd be. The sample size from his 2013 season was very, very small and his performance level, while solid on the surface, could have been propped up by batting average hit-luck. Maybe the common evaluation of his 2013 season was clouded by confirmation bias stemming from his high draft position. Maybe he was an overdraft by the organization. Maybe his 2013 professional season was actually more luck than production. Maybe each improper valuation served to prop up the other until the wheels came off in 2014. Or, maybe he just wasn't healthy.

Whatever the reason, his prospect status definitely took a hit last year. Whether his status rebounds depends on Ervin's ability to fix his hitting, as his hit-tool was going to be his carrying tool, without it he's not getting carried anywhere.

The 2015 season will provide a huge data point on Ervin's career trajectory.


DEFENSE, BASERUNNING, AND POSITIONAL VALUE

Ervin has good speed and good athleticism. His arm is solid both in terms of strength and accuracy. He can effectively handle all three outfield positions, but his defensive ceiling in centerfield might be solid/average. Last year, he played 38 games in leftfield, 68 games in centerfield, and 23 games in rightfield.

On the bases, Ervin has the speed and instincts to generate positive value, which is something of a rarity in the Reds organization. Setting aside Billy Hamilton, the Reds farm system simply hasn't produced many legitimate threats on the basepaths. Ervin doesn't have Hamilton speed, but he baserunning could still be a value-driver for him. In 2014, he swiped 25 bases in 30 attempts, a nice total and success rate. If he can reach base at a sufficient clip, then his speed will only add to his overall value.

As it stands, Ervin would likely need to shift to a corner outfield spot in order to factor into the organization's future plans. So, the fact that he's a bit fringy in centerfield isn't a huge problem at this point, as if the organization actually needs him out there then that means that Billy Hamilton didn't pan out. If that happens, then the organization will have bigger problems than Ervin's average or less centerfield defense.



FINAL THOUGHTS

Ervin has the type of profile that can deliver legitimate and diversified value. If he develops, then he could provide positive production at the plate, in the field, and on the bases. However, he only go as far as his hit tool will take him, as he doesn't have enough on-base skill or power to survive a low batting average.

If his wrist injury was the real culprit behind his 2014 struggles, then he should rebound nicely and restart his march towards the big leagues. It wasn't long ago that he was viewed as a polished college product with a pure hit-tool. If he can regain that reputation, then he'll reemerge as a valuable asset for the organization, but there's now significantly more risk to his projection than there was one year ago. That risk includes the possibility that, if his offense doesn't rebound or his defense slips a notch, he's a tweener, not quite enough glove for center and not enough bat for a corner spot.

For now, the hope of a rebound combines with his now heightened risk profile to land Ervin at #13 on the list.

2015 Top Prospect List: #3 Raisel Iglesias, rhp

Courtesy: MLB.com

RAISEL IGLESIAS

DOB: 1/4/1990
HEIGHT: 6-2, WEIGHT: 185, B/T: R/R


Raisel Iglesias successfully defected from Cuba in November of 2013. The Reds signed him in June of 2014 to a 7-year contract worth $27M, including a $5M signing bonus. Here's what Walt Jocketty had to say at the time of the signing about what the organization's scouts saw in Iglesias:

"They felt he had four quality pitches," Jocketty said. "They felt he could be a starter and be a starter very soon. They've seen him pitch several times three innings of relief, and when we get him to the United States and a little bit stronger, we feel he'll be a starter in the next year or so, hopefully."

And, here are Mark Sheldon and Jesse Sanchez on Iglesias' experience in Cuba and in international competition:

"Iglesias pitched three seasons for Isla de la Juventud in Cuba's Serie Nacional, the island's top baseball league. He had a 1.68 ERA with 20 walks and 50 strikeouts in 15 games (two starts) during a span of 53 2/3 innings, during the first half of the 2012-13 season, but he struggled with his command in the second half and finished with a 3.29 ERA.

Iglesias also shined for the Cuban national team at the World Port Tournament in the Netherlands and during Cuba's five-game series against the U.S. college national team last summer.

Iglesias gave up two runs and three hits while striking out over 4 2/3 frames in five games during the World Baseball Classic for Cuba in 2013."

Iglesias signed too late to log any time in the minor leagues in 2014, so his organizational debut occurred in the Arizona Fall League.

Iglesias logged a mere 7.0 innings in the AFL, but undeniably he was impressive in that stint. He posted a 0.00 ERA and a 7/3 K/BB ratio with only 1 hit allowed. Obviously, small sample caveats run rampant here, but I watched him pitch an inning and his stuff and command supported the performance level. He looked good, especially for someone pitching after such a long layoff.

Despite limited experience on American soil, the now 25-year old Iglesias has obviously turned the right heads in the organization, as he's laid claim, at least in the short-run, to a spot in the 2015 MLB rotation. In the long-run, he hasn't proven any more than Tony Cingrani that he's able to handle the responsibilities of an MLB starting pitcher.


PITCHING MECHANICS

Iglesias is listed as being 6-2, but some people peg him as closer to 5-11. Even setting aside the height issue, he has a slender type frame, so he's not a big framed pitcher by any definition. That said, he has a loose athleticism that creates some explosiveness in his delivery.

The defining characteristics of Iglesias' delivery are a quick tempo and a general looseness. His arm action is quick, fluid, and loose.

Iglesias stands with his right foot rotated on the rubber positioned on a 9-to-3 o'clock line, while his left foot runs more 1-to-7. He then uses an aggressive rocker step towards first base to start the delivery before bringing his left leg up into the leg kick. He is very fluid and strong in going from rocker step to leg kick to unpacking the leg kick to drive to the plate. His moves are performed with confidence and intent. At the apex of the leg kick, his knee is up against his chest and he incorporates a significant amount of body coil, to the point that he shows the number on the back of his jersey to the hitter. It's not as extreme as Johnny Cueto, but it's pronounced.

After he breaks his hands from apex, he starts his arm swing, dropping his pitching arm down in a half-circle, before bringing it up into throwing position. At the bottom of his arm swing, Iglesias uses a bit of a wrist-wrap (see photo below), which some theorize adds a bit of fatigue and stress to the arm over the course of 100 pitches.

Courtesy: Ross D. Franklin, AP

As Iglesias drives to the plate, he brings his arm up into throwing position in a timely manner. In addition, he maintains good elbow position relative to shoulder throughout the delivery and throws from a high three-quarter arm slot, though once in a while the slot seems to vary depending on the pitch he's throwing. That's not unusual in Cuban pitchers, but it's problematic if you believe in the benefits of Pitch Tunneling.

Courtesy: Kareem Elgazzar, The Enquirer

In his drive to the plate, Iglesias uses a long stride. It feels like he shortened it up a bit from the one he utilized in his Cuban days (see photo below), but it's still interesting to see just how far he can stride and still get his upper body out over his stride leg. That speaks to good athleticism.

A long stride allows ample room for the hips to fire and clear, which is important for hip/shoulder differential and, therefore, the efficiency of the kinetic chain. It also allows the pitcher to release the ball slightly closer to homeplate, allowing his velocity to play up a tick.

Courtesy: Kazuhiro Nogi, Getty Images

Unfortunately, Iglesias has two components to his delivery that nullify the unrealized hip-clearing benefit of the longer stride: (1) a Cueto/Tiant twirl (see photo below) and (2) a closed off stride.

As to the first, Iglesias uses a Cueto/Tiant like move at the apex of his leg kick, rotating his upper body and showing his back to the hitter. As I've talked about with Johnny Cueto, the potential problem with this type of move is that it forces the hips and shoulders to uncoil at the same exact time. Instead of a differential between the rotation of the hips and the rotation of the shoulders, they become one piece. As a result, the drive to the plate becomes much more rotational, which is inevitable when the lower and upper body are opening up in sync via the same movement. Given that, it's not surprising that the momentum of this more rotational delivery pulls both Cueto and Iglesias to the first base side on the follow-through.

As to the second, Iglesias also falls off to the first base side for another reason: he uses a closed off stride. His stride foot lands significantly closer to the third base side than normal (see below photo), which forces him to throw across his body. So, he has something of a cross-fire delivery, which forces the momentum to work around his closed off stride position, rather than more directly towards homeplate. The inevitable result of the cross-fire delivery is falling-off-to-first-base in the follow-through.

A cross-fire delivery can increase deception, but it also hinders force creation and transfer. So, there's good and bad with that delivery component. Personally, I value efficiency and force creation more than deception, but there are obvious examples of pitchers who have had success with the cross-fire delivery.

Still, the Cueto/Tiant twirl and closed off stride position limit the effectiveness and efficiency of the kinetic chain. If force isn't generated by the body and efficiently channeled by the kinetic chain, then that force has to be made up by the pitching arm. The more force the pitching arm has to generate, the more stress it endures.

Given the lack of hip/shoulder differential, it also wouldn't surprise me if Iglesias suffers the same type of strains of the oblique/lat that Johnny Cueto suffered. But, people are different and Cueto has a different body type than Iglesias. Cueto is thicker and tighter, whereas Iglesias is much leaner and looser, so maybe he's better equipped to avoid those ailments.


Here's a look at Iglesias pitching in the AFL, courtesy MLBProspectPortal on YouTube:







And another look at Iglesias, this time a slow-motion look courtesy of MooreBaseball on YouTube:







Here's a final look, courtesy of Mike Rosenbaum on YouTube:






Overall, Iglesias has some funkiness to his delivery. The wrist wrap, Tiant Twirl, and cross-fire delivery are potential red flags and I wonder if his velocity and power are more the result of a naturally quick arm action than of the force generated by the body and transmitted to the baseball. I don't love his mechanics, but maybe a very quick, very loose arm make those issues moot.

As it stands, Iglesias is having good success and is on the fast track to the big leagues. It'll be interesting to see how his arm handles a full starter's workload.


REPERTOIRE

Iglesias works with a 4-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball that sits 92-95, a plus-slider, a hard curveball, and an inconsistent changeup. It's a mix that should allow him to be an effective starting pitcher.

When I saw him in the AFL, the slider was the true standout. It had very good depth and power and two-plane break. He threw it hard enough to back-foot it to lefties, so it could be an effective pitch to hitters of both handedness. In addition to the slider, the fastball was also a strong pitch, as it had good velocity and he commanded it well.

Working in relief, a well located fastball and a nasty slider were really all he needed to succeed in the AFL. As a starter, he'll need to reintroduce his changeup and curveball into the mix. Given his polish and command, he won't need maximum velocity on the fastball to succeed, but he will need to carry some velocity with him to the rotation.


FINAL THOUGHTS

As of now, there really isn't much of a track-record to work off with Raisel Iglesias. However, in the outing I saw in the Arizona Fall League he looked electric. The fastball was popping with good velocity and location and the slider was a put-away, swing-and-miss pitch. He now has to prove that he can be electric enough over longer outings to be a successful starting pitcher at the MLB level. And, he needs to establish a track-record for durability as a starting pitcher.

Still, a well commanded fastball and a plus slider is a good place to start, so for now Iglesias lands at #3 on the list.

2015 Top Prospect List: #8 Kyle Waldrop, of

KYLE WALDROP

Courtesy: MILB.com

DOB: 11/26/1991
HEIGHT: 6-2, WEIGHT: 216, B/T: L/L


Kyle Waldrop is a classic case: an athlete trying to develop the specific skills that drive success in professional baseball. Baseball isn't football or basketball or the criminal justice system, it doesn't surrender easily in the face of pure athletic brilliance.

Baseball makes you work. It values the subtle skills over the jaw-dropping tools, which explains why Kevin Youkilis carved out a stellar career, while the Wily Mo Pena Experience never caught fire.

Fortunately for the Reds and Waldrop, those baseball specific skills emerged in 2014, turning him from an athlete with tools into a baseball player with skills.

AMATEUR CAREER AND DRAFT POSITION

The Reds selected Waldrop out of Riverdale High School in Florida with the 367th overall pick in the 12th round of the 2010 draft. He might have gone higher in the draft if not for what was seen as a strong football commitment to the University of South Florida. A $500,000 signing bonus lured him away from the gridiron and he hasn't looked back.

Waldrop oozes athleticism. He was a Division 1 football prospect at wide receiver, but also played on the defensive side of the ball. Here's a look at his high school football prowess, courtesy of K Wally on YouTube:

He had the athleticism to play football at a high level and the good sense to choose baseball for a career path. Both positives on the ledger. 

2014 SEASON

The light came on for Waldrop during the 2014 season. He started off with Bakersfield, a return engagement with the Blaze. His second spin around high-A was a substantial improvement over the first go around, as he posted a .359/.409/.516/.925 slash line with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 56/22 K/BB ratio over 288 Plate Appearances. That performance earned him a promotion to double-A.

For Pensacola, Waldrop kept crushing, barely falling off against much more advanced pitching, and proving that his early season performance was driven by more than a hitter-friendly home park in a hitter-friendly league. For the Blue Wahoos, he hit .315/.359/.517/.876 with 8 homers, 3 steals, and a 44/17 K/BB ratio over 252 Plate Appearances.

Between the two levels, Waldrop hit a combined .338/.385/.516/.902 over 540 Plate Appearances in a clear breakout season. He finished it off with a stop in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .300/.325/.462 over 83 Plate Appearances, maintaining a good performance level at the tail end of a long season.

Here's a look at Waldrop's spray chart for 2014:

K.Waldrop 2014 Spray Chart
Courtesy: MLBfarm.com

He's a bit pull-oriented, especially on ground balls, but sprays the ball around well enough to keep pitchers and defenders honest. And, he can drive the ball to the opposite field, so he's not just slicing or fisting the ball the other way.

As for his plate approach during the 2014 season, I was pleasantly surprised and rather impressed. The general impression that I formed in watching him play is that he's an aggressive hitter with good pitch recognition skills who really doesn't chase the ball out of the zone very often.

As for specific impressions, here are a few of the things that I saw:

• I watched Waldrop ambush a first pitch fastball from Jeremy Hellickson, who was on a rehab start, for a double to rightfield. Taking a big rip on the first pitch was a fairly common occurrence. 
• I also saw Waldrop work into a deep count off of Matt Lollis, laying off outside pitches, and then going with the pitch to hit an opposite field homer. 
• Facing lefty Greg Nappo, he took two fastballs for called strikes and chased a slider off the plate for a swinging strikeout. Like most hitters, Waldrop's pitch recognition and propensity to chase seem to decline when he falls into pitcher-counts. 
• Facing lefty Alex Sogard, Waldrop fought off some tough breaking balls. He made good "swing/no-swing" decisions throughout the plate appearance until chasing a two strike breaking pitch for the strikeout.   
• Facing uber-prospect Archie Bradley, Waldrop worked a full-count walk and showed good pitch recognition. In the next AB, he singled on a slow roller to third base. 

Waldrop frequently jumped on the first pitch and showed strong pitch recognition. His aggressiveness will likely prevent him from posting strong on-base percentages, but should also help limit the strikeouts. He also doesn't have a ton of swing-and-miss to his game, as he does a nice job of getting the barrel of the bat on the ball. He seems to be able to to recognize and dismiss pitches easily, especially when he has count-leverage and can look for the pitch and location he wants. When he loses count-leverage, then his recognition and approach both seem a bit weaker. Still, his overall approach is strong, even though he's not quite as patient or disciplined as one might wish.

Overall, it was a successful season of realized potential for Kyle Waldrop.

SWING MECHANICS

Waldrop uses a set of solid, fundamentally sound swing mechanics. It's not surprising that Waldrop and Winker are frequently mentioned in the same sentence, as they resemble each other at the plate, same handedness, similar physical builds, and even a small arm-bar in their swings.

Waldrop's pre-pitch stance is quiet with a small bat waggle. He sets his feet slightly wider than shoulder-width. It actually reminds me quite a bit of Jason Giambi.

Courtesy: Unknown

The similarities between the two end once the swing fires. For one thing, Waldrop's hands aren't as far back as Giambi's, which gives him a slightly longer path in loading the hands.

Once the pitcher drives to the plate, Waldrop uses a small stride forward to trigger the weight transfer, while at the same time drawing his hands back to load up in the swing. He has a fairly deep load, which straightens his lead arm almost to the point of an arm-bar:

Despite the deep handset and near arm-bar, Waldrop still manages to create a relatively short, compact swing. He does so in part by using "bat lag", which is a positive component of the swing and refers to the barrel of the bat lagging behind the hands in the swing. The longer the hitter can maintain that lag, the more power will be generated by the swing. When the bat emerges from the lag position, the barrel comes around and into the point of contact.

Waldrop maintains a somewhat smaller "lag angle" (angle between lead arm and bat), which comes along with a slightly steeper and more direct angle of attack. This lag angle helps him generate good power by delaying the release of the barrel in the swing and allowing the rotation of the shoulders to both create power and deliver the bat to the point of contact.



















Waldrop also does a nice job of driving the back elbow into the back hip, effectively syncing the upper body with the rotation of the hips. The left photo above is a tick earlier in his swing than the photo on the right, and, in going from the left photo to the right, you can almost see the explosive rotation in the front hip.

While Waldrop's pre-pitch stance reminds me of Jason Giambi, his swing reminds me more of Kole Calhoun. Both use a compact, but powerful stroke that frequently involves keeping both hands on the bat during the follow-through. Also, slightly stockier type bodies and a consistent ability to make hard contact. Just good, solid hit tools.

Waldrop does a nice job of firming up his front side to give the force an anchor point around which to rotate. He also maintains good balance throughout the swing, generating power without losing body control.

If I have a concern with Waldrop's swing, it's that his stride occasionally gets disconnected from the swing. Once in a while, he strides early, then has to pause slightly before firing his swing. That break interrupts the creation and effective transfer of force, leaving him with a largely upper body swing. The lack of effective use of the lower body reduces the force generated in the swing. Of course, he doesn't do it all the time and it's not an issue that should be difficult to eliminate.

Overall, it's a compact swing that generates significant power, which is a valuable, and unique, combination of attributes for any hitter. Frequently, power requires length in the swing, so being short and powerful should allow for good contact AND good power.


Here's a look at Waldrop at the plate, courtesy of Moore Baseball on YouTube:






Pretty impressive.

DEFENSE

On the defensive side of the game, Waldrop can handle leftfield. He has good athleticism and average speed, but his arm strength is a tick below average so he probably can't slide over to rightfield. To increase his versatility, Waldrop has started working at first base and he should be able to handle that position just fine. However, Joey Votto's presence means that, barring injury, there won't be much opportunity for Waldrop at 1b.

In the final calculus, Waldrop is a bat-first prospect who will go as far as his offense will take him. His defense isn't a drag on his value, but his defensive ceiling is probably average, which isn't ideal for a player already relegated to the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Given that Votto is entrenched at first base and Jesse Winker is likely the future in leftfield, it'll be interesting to see how Waldrop figures into the organization's future plans. If he hits enough, then he'll force his way into the lineup.

Defense won't be a value-driver for Waldrop, but it also won't act as a drag on his value.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Kyle Waldrop can hit. He has a solid hit tool and good power. He's an aggressive hitter, so drawing walks won't be his forte, but he also doesn't chase the ball outside the zone all that often. His aggressiveness seems to be of the "in-the-strikezone" type of aggressiveness, which is a good thing for a hitter with his combination of hit-tool and power.

Overall, Waldrop seems to have really figured things out at the plate, which is good enough to land him at #8 on the list.

2015 Top Prospect List: #7 Anthony DeSclafani, rhp

ANTHONY DESCLAFANI

Courtesy: MILB.com

DOB:4/18/1990
HEIGHT: 6-1 WEIGHT: 190 lbs
B/T: R/R


This offseason, the Reds decided to address the impending departure of three-fifths of their starting rotation after the 2015 season. They did so largely by trading away Mat Latos, whose value has fallen due to an injury plagued 2014 season and declining fastball velocity, to the Miami Marlins. Not as many pundits as I would have expected are making the connection between those two factors, but it seems highly likely that they are interrelated. Regardless, the central piece coming back to the Reds in the Latos deal was Anthony DeSclafani.

Right out of the chute, DeSclafani takes the title for worst name on the 40-man roster. A brutal blend of consonants and dissonance. Fortunately, others in his life must have struggled with it, because someone bestowed the nickname of "Disco" upon him.

The general pundit consensus is that the return for the Reds in the Mat Latos deal was rather light. Disco, as the key piece of that return, will have a chance to prove them wrong. There are certainly a number of things to really like about Anthony DeSclafani, even if he still needs to conquer a few lingering issues before he evolves into a viable MLB starting pitcher.  


COLLEGIATE CAREER AND DRAFT POSITION

Disco spent three years at the University of Florida, where he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Overall, his collegiate career fell somewhat short of stellar:

Pitching Career

2009 (19-FR): 65.0 IP, 4.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.22 BB/9, 6.51 K/9, 2.94 K/BB, 21 G/11 GS

2010 (20-SO): 40.2 IP, 7.08 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 1.77 BB/9, 6.42 K/9, 3.63 K/BB, 19 G/6 GS

2011 (21-JR): 43.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 1.24 BB/9, 8.04 K/9, 6.50 K/BB, 28 G/2 GS

The peripheral stats were more encouraging than the overall stats, but it wasn't an elite performance level by any means. It's also interesting to note, since the Reds have tabbed him an early favorite for a rotation spot, that he spent more time working out of the bullpen in college than the rotation. Still, his performance combined with his pitching tools was enough for the Blue Jays to draft him with the 199th overall pick in the 6th round of the 2011 draft.

Disco was eventually dealt to the Marlins in the Reyes/Buehrle/J.Johnson deal and then on over to the Reds in the Mat Latos trade. He has bounced around quite a bit in his young professional career, including stops at three different levels in 2014.


2014 SEASON

Disco split time between double-A, triple-A, and the majors in 2014. The initial assignment to double-A was a return engagement and he handled it well, showing a nice blend of walks and strikeouts that would be the defining positive characteristic of his season.

2014

Double-A: 43.0 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.80 K/BB, 8 G/8 GS

Triple-A: 59.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 2.81 K/BB, 12 G/11 GS

MLB: 33.0 IP, 6.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 5.20 K/BB, 13 G/5 GS

The walk and whiff rates are what stand out, but, in light of his largely two-pitch mix, it's worth wondering how well those rates will translate to the majors. It's possible that he gets away with leaning heavily on the fastball/slider combo when facing younger hitters, but that he'll struggle to maintain that level of success when facing big league hitters on a consistent basis.

To find out, I went back and watched all five of Disco's starts for the Marlins in 2014. I watched those starts cold, without any prior research, because I wanted a clean first impression.

Disco's first start was both his MLB debut and his best effort. He faced the Dodgers on May 14 and tossed 6.0 innings of 2 run ball, allowing 7 hits and posting a 7/1 K/BB ratio. His debut was noteworthy for two reasons: (1) it included his best velocity as a starting pitcher, and (2) with the exception of a single changeup, he relied on only two pitches (fastball/slider).

I don't know if his veins were coursing with adrenaline as a result of making his Major League debut, but his fastball was popping the mitt, averaging 94.4 mph. That level of velocity, when coupled with an above-average slider, was enough to confound the Dodgers. The one changeup that he threw was not a good one, getting hammered by Yasiel Puig for a double. Not only was that pitch outcome bad, but the arm action he used on the changeup looked materially different than the one he used on his fastball and slider. So, the deception was poor, which isn't a good sign going forward.

After his debut start, the results were decidedly poor and the fastball velocity a notch slower, sitting more 91/92/93 than 93/94/95. He gave up, respectively, 5, 4, 7, and finally 2 runs in an abbreviated 3.0 inning start that he had to depart after getting plunked by a comebacker. After those five starts, he returned later in the year to work out of the bullpen. So, what can we glean from those starts?

Well, first and foremost, his fastball is vastly more interesting and effective when it sits 93/94/95 than when it sits 91/92/93. Unfortunately, the latter is more common than the former. Second, his changeup isn't ready for prime time. Third, there might have been a smattering of bad luck obscuring a true performance level, as his BABIP and Strand Rate were both worse than might have reasonably been expected. In short, he gave up more hits than normal and those hits were bunched in more damaging clusters than expected. So, he has that going for him. Finally, his control could become a real value-driver for DeSclafani, as he has the ability to limit the number of baserunners he allows via the free pass. 


PITCHING MECHANICS

As for pitching mechanics, Disco's are strong without any obvious red flags. His balance and tempo remain strong throughout. His leg kick comes up well past parallel at the apex and he stays over the rubber to effectively gather himself before driving to the plate.

The defining characteristic of his mechanics is his stride. After he unpacks his leg kick from the apex and strides forward, he actually straightens out his front leg, leaving him in an unusual position.

Courtesy: J Pat Carter/AP Photo

Courtesy: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports

While the stiff stride leg looks unusual, it serves to effectively lengthen his stride, which can increase the force generated by the kinetic chain and allow for easier and more complete clearing of the hips to transfer that force to the baseball. For Disco, straightening the front leg seems to serve the same purpose, namely maximizing the stride length, as Tim Lincecum's "step over the banana peel" move at the very end of his stride. 

In the photos above, his back leg is flexed, while his stride leg is straight. As he continues to drive to the plate, it reverses, as his back leg straightens, while the front leg flexes. In the photos below, you can see this happen, giving him a longer stride and the appearance of almost jumping off the mound toward the plate.

Courtesy: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Courtesy: Rob Foldy, Getty Images

I'm a big proponent of a lengthy stride, or at least a stride as long as a pitcher can comfortably utilize, as it has real kinetic chain benefits. However, one of the things I like most about the longer stride is that it allows for the possibility of a greater differential between hip rotation and shoulder rotation. A delayed shoulder rotation allows the pitcher to more effectively throw with his entire body, which reduces stress on the pitching arm. Disco has a good differential (photo below), even if it isn't quite all it could be. As a result, his kinetic chain is effective, but it isn't quite as efficient as it might be, potentially reducing the generation of force and/or increasing the effort required to generate that force.

Disco's differential: hips firing, delayed shoulder rotation. 

Overall, I like Disco's mechanics, which are strong, but for a pitcher whose stuff is straddling the line between starter and reliever, any added or lost force might make a substantial difference in career path.

As for his arm action, he throws from a high three-quarter arm slot, maintains good position relative to his shoulder, gets the arm up into proper throwing position at foot strike, uses good pronation, and has a solid deceleration phase. All of which should work to minimize his injury risk.

Here's a look at him in action, courtesy of MLBProspectPortal on YouTube:






I like Disco from a pitching mechanics point of view. His fastball, at least when it averages 94.1 mph, is a legitimate weapon and his slider can be a plus-pitch, but his changeup remains a real work in progress.

If the velocity remains inconsistent on his fastball and the changeup remains little utilized and ineffective when it is, then it's difficult to see how Disco will find consistent success in the starting rotation. And, it's difficult to see how the Reds can win this trade if he's relegated to the bullpen.

The real problem is that while Disco's fastball and slider combo might be enough for him to consistently handle righthanded hitters, it's much harder to see how he can effectively neutralize lefties. His slider is a good pitch, but he doesn't throw it with enough power to utilize it as a back-foot slider to lefties. The slider averages 81.7 mph, which makes it difficult to generate enough depth and movement to break it down-and-in under the swings of lefties. During his starts, I saw him back-foot only one slider, an 83-mph pitch that struck Anthony Rizzo out swinging. But, by and large, it's a pitch that's likely to be more effective against righties, leaving him without an out-pitch to lefties.

The numbers bear this out, as Disco posted the following splits in 2014 (obviously, small sample size caveats apply):

vs R: .273/.301/.409/.710
vs L: .333/.362/.530/.893

The performance against righties certainly isn't great, but the performance against lefties is truly ugly. In light of his limited repertoire and struggles against lefties, a move to the bullpen might be inevitable. He might be able to stave off such a move if he can either significantly improve his changeup or increase his fastball velocity, but neither seems to be lurking on the immediate horizon. 

Clearly, Disco was aware of the problem, as he was experimenting with a curveball in the Arizona Fall League and early reports were promising. Granted, it was a small sample size against varying levels of hitters, but it's possible that the curveball will replace the changeup in his arsenal and give him a more effective offspeed pitch to use against lefties. Odd as it may sound, curveballs frequently have reverse platoon-splits, so he could deploy it against lefthanded hitters. So, maybe it's this new curveball that will ultimately unlock Disco's potential and make him a viable MLB starting pitcher. 


FINAL THOUGHTS

The overarching goal of the Mat Latos trade was to swap a pitcher with one year of control for players under multiple years of control. Part and parcel of such a trade is trading experience for inexperience. Fortunately, DeSclafani still has time to develop, but the Reds seem ready to toss him right into the fire, as he's penciled into the rotation for 2015. However, he'll need to find a way to take his performance level up a notch in 2015 if he's going to find consistent success in the rotation. 

Disco has strong mechanics, but unless he has more and better stuff in his arsenal, it's difficult to see him emerging as an impact starting pitcher. His current arsenal would probably make him a viable reliever, but the Reds obviously have their sights set higher than that. 

There are a lot of things to like about DeSclafani, including clean mechanics, good command, and enough stuff to generate strikeouts at a good clip. Further, he's still young enough to take the needed step forward and he'll get that chance in 2015. For now, he clocks in at #7 on the list. 

2015 Top Prospect List: #5 Nick Howard, rhp

Courtesy: UVA

NICK HOWARD
DOB:4/6/1993
HEIGHT: 6-3 WEIGHT: 215 lbs
B/T: R/R


The Reds selected Nick Howard with the 19th overall draft pick in the 2014 draft, which continued the organization's recent strategy of trying to reap a competitive advantage by converting college relievers into professional starting pitchers. It seems safe to infer that the Reds believe they can spot undervalued talent in college relievers.

Tony Cingrani was the first significant attempt at this conversion, Michael Lorenzen followed shortly thereafter, Howard most recently. While these picks are all philosophically similar, one difference worth noting is the escalating opportunity cost. 

Cingrani was a 3rd round pick. Lorenzen was a Supplemental 1st round pick. Howard was a full blown 1st round pick. As the value of the draft pick increases, so does the opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is the "loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen." 

When the Reds selected Cingrani, they viewed him as the 114th best player in the country. Since 113 players were already off the draft board, they never had a shot at those players, which lowers the opportunity cost of selecting Cingrani. 

When the Reds selected Lorenzen, they viewed him as the 38th best player in the country. Only 37 players were off the board, so the available alternatives were of higher quality, increasing the opportunity cost of selecting Lorenzen. 

Finally, in selecting Nick Howard, the Reds viewed him as the 19th best player in the country, despite the availability of a number of other quality alternatives, giving Howard the highest opportunity cost of the troika.  

Given the real inherent risk to converting a college reliever to the starting rotation, driven by the simple fact that he's never proven that he can do what you asking, the lower the opportunity cost the better. The college reliever may have less wear-and-tear on his arm, but he has yet to prove that his mechanics and arm health can hold up under a heavier workload (see: Cingrani, Tony). As a result, rolling the dice in the 3rd round makes more sense than rolling those 1st round dice. 

COLLEGIATE CAREER

Nick Howard spent three seasons at the University of Virginia. For the Cavaliers, Howard pitched out of the bullpen, pitched out of the rotation, and played first base, third base, and shortstop. Wearing that many hats obviously requires very good athleticism and creates a tremendous amount of value for the the program. 

Pitching Career

2012 (19-FR): 41.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.57 BB/9, 7.93 K/9, 3.08 K/BB, 19 G/0 GS

2013 (20-SO): 61.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.21 BB/9, 7.67 K/9, 3.47 K/BB, 13 G/12 GS

2014 (21-JR): 37.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.32 BB/9, 14.21 K/9, 4.29 K/BB, 31 G/0 GS

Hitting Career

2012 (19-FR): .346/.426/.404/.830 with 0 HRs and 13/8 K/BB ratio in 52 ABs

2013 (20-SO): .323/.341/.449/.790 with 3 HRs and 31/8 K/BB ratio in 198 ABs

2014 (21-JR): .261/.305/.333/.638 with 1 HR and 25/11 K/BB ratio in 153 ABs

For our purposes, his pitching performance is what's relevant. Howard worked exclusively out of the bullpen as a freshman and junior. He started 12 games and made 1 relief appearance as a sophomore. His performance ticked up notably in his junior season, which is what undoubtedly carried him up the draft board. 

He also pitched seven newsworthy innings at the College World Series, including four in a 15-inning battle with TCU. In his final season, he also broke the UVA single-season save record, previously held by former Reds farm hand Kevin Arico. 

2014 SEASON

Despite a long season at the collegiate level, Howard still had time to log some innings and get his feet wet in the professional ranks. The Reds sent him to low-A Dayton, where he pitched 33.2 innings for the Dragons. In those innings, he posted a 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23/11 K/BB ratio, and a 1.15 GO/FO ratio. The Reds started off his professional career with 6 relief appearances followed by 5 starts to finish the season. 

It's a small sample size and examining his splits just makes it more so, but since Howard's ability to start is at issue, it's worth noting that he was better in relief than he was in the rotation. As a reliever, he posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 9/3 K/BB ratio in 10.0 innings. As a starter, he posted a 4.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 14/8 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. 

Some observations from the what I saw out of Howard. In shorter stints, he had the ability to get swings-and-misses on the fastball, but in longer stints that was less common. In his starts, he didn't always have the ability to put hitters away when he got ahead in the count, which frequently points to inconsistent or insufficient offspeed pitches, the former in Howard's case.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Overall, Howard uses a fundamentally sound set of mechanics without any glaring red flags. He has good athleticism which aids in repeating his delivery and maintaining consistent balance and tempo in the delivery. He also has good size, which should help him effectively work on a downward plane.

Howard stands tall on the mound with feet shoulder width apart. He uses a very small rocker-step towards first base to begin his motion, shifting his weight to the left foot so he can pivot his right foot down onto the rubber. The step is short, allowing him to maintain balance and rhythm, and aids in transitioning momentum up the delivery.

From there, he brings his lead leg up into the leg kick, which is one of the first components that gives his motion a somewhat stiff/rigid appearance. At the apex of his leg kick, Howard keeps the toe of his foot at a 90-degree angle to his shin (see below photos, interestingly he used a slightly higher leg kick for low-A Dayton than he did later in the Arizona Fall League), which isn't necessarily a negative, but it adds a touch of tension and rigidity to his motion:

Howard pitching in AFL in 2014.

Howard pitching for Dayton in 2014.

The other component of his motion that creates a more rigid, less fluid, look is his upright posture. His upper body, in particular stays fairly upright throughout the delivery, which causes his shoulder level to remain parallel to the ground throughout.

Typically, as a pitcher nears the apex of his leg kick he "sets the hip." This move involves the back knee and back hip moving forward, causing the front hip to lead the rest of the body in the drive to the plate. This movement, which generates forward lean in the delivery, creates leverage by setting a small uphill angle of the shoulders as the pitcher drives down the slope of the mound. Most pitchers, particularly power pitchers, don't maintain level shoulders throughout the delivery, instead they let the setting of the hips work to set the shoulder level. Not only does this create additional leverage, but it also increases the ability to throw on a downward plane.

Howard does "set" the hip, but he doesn't create the small uphill angle of the shoulders. So, to an extent, he is sacrificing a small degree of leverage and downward plane by maintaining a level shoulder-level throughout the delivery.

On the plus side, Howard has a clean arm action, both maintaining good position relative to the shoulder throughout and getting up into proper throwing position at foot strike. He throws from a high three-quarter arm slot with a quick arm that can generate plus velocity.

In addition, Howard has a strong glove-side action in the delivery, which gives him a firm point to work against as he throws the ball. He pulls the glove down enough to generate a measure of rotational force, but not so much that he pulls the rotation off-line and increases stress on the pitching elbow. His glove also finishes properly in the box between the midline-and-the-armpit from the belly button-to-the-waist. Ideally, a pitcher's throwing-side and glove-side should load the arm for throwing by mirroring and counterbalancing each other. Howard does that well.

The differential created by Howard between hip-rotation and shoulder-rotation (see below photo) is solid-average. Not great, not terrible. By not creating a larger differential, Howard is relying on a kinetic chain with sub-optimal efficiency to generate force. There would be performance and durability benefits to creating a greater differential and improving the efficiency of the chain.  

Howard at maximum differential.

While Howard does a solid job in generating the force, he is less successful at safely and effectively dissipating that force. The deceleration phase of the delivery is important for durability, as the arm has to be properly decelerated to reduce the risk of serious injury.

One of the key components of the deceleration phase is proper and timely pronation of the pitching arm after releasing the pitch. This rotation (think of the rotation of the arm resulting in the thumb pointing downward) of the arm is necessary because it prevents the elbow joint from consistently banging after the release of each and every pitch. Howard's pronation seems inconsistent at best, insufficient at worst, as he doesn't always fully and complete pronate the arm. Howard's pitching arm finishes low and doesn't involve any recoil, which is good, but the insufficient pronation could foreshadow serious elbow problems down the road. The pitching motion creates a tremendous amount of force, which is borne by the arm and must ultimately be taken off the arm through proper dissipation of that force.


Here's a slow-motion look at Nick Howard on the mound, courtesy of Chance Moore on YouTube:






One interesting thing to note is the final pitch in the above clip is his changeup, as evidenced by the circle-change grip that he employs.



Here's another look at Howard in the AFL, courtesy of The Prospect Pipeline on YouTube:






Overall, Howard has solid, functional mechanics. There a few things I'd like to see improved, including a bit more fluidity in his motion and a greater differential, but the largest concern and the closest thing to a real red flag is the insufficient deceleration phase.

REPERTOIRE

Howard works with a primarily three-pitch mix. He has a power fastball that he can run up to 99 mph as a reliever, but that sits 91-93 mph as a starting pitcher. When he's working as a reliever, he has the ability to get swings-and-misses with the fastball even in fastball counts. He also features a slider that has good depth, bite, and downward break. Whether intentionally or not, the slider can also resemble a slurve, with a slower, bigger break. So, he's either inconsistent with his slider or he can shape it different ways in different situations. Finally, Howard throws a changeup that pundits rate as an average or below average pitch, but from what I've seen it has very real potential. It shows flashes of being a beautiful pitch with good deception and late tumble. It may be an inconsistent, but there's real upside there and it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be his very best pitch.

Overall, Howard's repertoire has promise, but if the conversion to the rotation is going to work, then he'll need to find (1) more velocity or command on the fastball, (2) more consistency on the slider, (3) better command of the changeup, or (4) some combination of incremental improvement in more than one of those areas.


FINAL THOUGHTS

Nick Howard is the latest attempt by the Reds to convert a college reliever to the professional rotation. That's a gamble that makes more sense outside the first round, where the opportunity cost is lower and the increased risk from making the conversion is more manageable.

Overall, Howard has blend of positives and negatives that lands him at #5 on the list:

Positives: Solid mechanics, good size, solid velocity, a good slider, and the potential for a very good changeup.

Negatives: No real track record of being able to hold up under a starting pitcher's workload, a questionable deceleration phase that increases the risk of serious elbow injury, velocity that plays better out of the bullpen, and inconsistent offspeed offerings.


As the opportunity cost increases, I'm becoming less and less enamored with the strategy of drafting college relievers and converting them to the rotation. The first round should be a time for drafting prospects who, as much as possible, are ready to hit the ground running without the need for a major change in role or mechanics.

However, Nick Howard, like Cingrani and Lorenzen before him, will get the chance to develop as a starting pitcher. I would argue (1) that the success of this draft pick hinges on his conversion to the rotation and (2) that the success of this conversion hinges on his changeup, which I believe could end up being the best weapon in his arsenal. If the changeup continues to develop, then he could emerge as a solid starting pitcher. If not, then he'll likely be a high-leverage reliever. For now he slots in at #5 on the list.