Random Thoughts

**Nice to FINALLY see the Reds call up Mark Bellhorn from AAA. I've long wanted to see what Bellhorn could do in GABP, as he has the right type of swing to benefit from the park. The Reds have been wasting a roster spot on Juan Castro, who provides nothing more than solid (at best) defense, all season long. Given the state of the Reds, wasting playing time on someone like Castro is a mistake we can't afford to make. Bellhorn or Keppinger should have been given that roster spot long ago. That simple change could conceivably have earned the Reds another victory or two.

**The Reds have dumped the last four games in a row, so it looks like the Dead Cat Bounce or the uptick in performance gained from a change in manager is over. If you want to seriously consider Mackanin for the manager slot, NOW is the time to start evaluating him. The honeymoon is over, so it's time for Pete to work his magic.

**The Reds face 4 lefthanded starters this week (M.Chico, J.Lanan, M.Bascik, T.Gorzelanny). Given their struggles against southpaws, perhaps this losing streak shouldn't be a surprise. Perhaps the Reds can benefit from the incompetence of the Pirates, as they were scheduled to face a 5th lefty before the Bucs drastically overpaid to bring in righthander Matt Morris.

**It's finally time to see what we have in Phil Dumatrait. Personally, I'm rather skeptical. Dumi seems to walk too many and strikeout too few, but maybe he can be a serviceable, inexpensive back of the rotation starter. Whether he is a solid option or not, it's long past time the Reds brought him up so we can see if he should be included in the future plans.

**Cleveland reliever Fernando Cabrera was Designated For Assignment yesterday. It's unfortunate that it happened after the trade deadline, as it would've been great for the Reds to acquire him. He's got a live arm and tremendous velocity. If he can harness his stuff, maybe he'd be the setup man the Reds so desperately need. Unfortunately, now he has to clear waivers before he can be dealt, so the Reds are behind all the AL teams and couple of NL teams in the pecking order. Hopefully, he'll slide all the way through to the Reds, but that seems like a longshot.

**Two of my favorite players had huge days on Wednesday, as Jayson Werth went 3-6 with 4 RBI and a SB and Morgan Ensberg clubbed 2 homers in Petco Park. I must admit, it puts a smile on my face to see these two do well, even if it is too small of a sample size to be indicative of anything. I've long wanted to see each in Cincy, but I still enjoy their successes with other organizations.

**The Padres did very well at the trade deadline, as they added several undervalued players, rather than pay the exhorbitant cost for the big ticket items. Milton Bradley and Morgan Ensberg have paid immediate and substantial dividends for the Pads. Given how close the NL West race is, these moves could be enough to put the Pads over the top.

**Jay Bruce continues to pound the ball, regardless of the caliber of the competition. As a 20 year old at AAA, Bruce is now hitting .305/.374/.610/.983 with 6 homers and an 18/8 K/BB ratio. At this point, he is pushing for a chance at a starting job in the 2008 Reds outfield. I can still hear the sound of the triple he hit in the Futures Game at PacBell park thundering in my ear. It sounded like a rifle shot coming off the bat. Bruce is looking like the best prospect the Reds have produced in quite some time.

**It's rather sad to read that Adam Dunn's family can't listen to the Reds games that are being broadcast by the Brennamans. Both Marty and Thom are so hard on him that his family can't stand to listen to it. Someone should tell Marty and Thom that it is one thing to be objective, but it is an entirely different thing to be hyper-critical and negative. I don't think many would accuse Vin Scully, Jon Miller, or any of the other great broadcasters of being homers, but I also doubt those great broadcasters drive the families of players away from the telecast with their never-ending negativity. There's a fine line between "telling it like it is" and being an obnoxious loudmouth, sadly, far too many people (including, evidently, the Brennamans) mistake the latter for the former. Someone should remind them that it is possible to be objective without being negative and meanspirited.

The Cannon

Personally, I think we need to maintain a bit of perspective on Pete Mackanin.

I'm not wild about already hearing discussions about keeping him on for 2008, because I'm not sure he's really doing anything revolutionary. Not to mention, he has three things going for him that are creating a fog over his actual managerial skills:

1) The morbidly named "Dead Cat Bounce" theory,
2) The Reds regression to the mean, and
3) He's not Jerry Narron.

I think those are the three main factors for the Reds success since he took over and I don't think any of those are signs that we should keep him around.

1) The Dead Cat Bounce refers to the idea that a moderate improvement in performance after a sustained period of poor performance does not necessarily indicate improving circumstances. Basically, even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from a great enough height. The Reds have been in freefall all year, so a bit of a bounce back doesn't mean that they are on the verge of very good things.

That said, I think the Reds recent improvement is likely due to a response to external changes, not due to any real, fundamental improvement in the team itself. I think we are getting a bit carried away that the addition of the Cannon has truly changed things in Cincy. The Reds still are what they are, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (see: #2).

There was an interesting article I read that discussed a study performed on the productivity of factor workers. Factory workers worked in a controlled environment under the same conditions for a substantial period of time. One day, the overhead lights were turned up, which made it brighter in the factory (although, the same effect was seen when they made it darker). After that simple change in working conditions the productivity of the employee's improved. Of course, it went back to normal levels after the employees adjusted to the new condition and the effect was not sustainable if changes were made day after day.

I think that's part of what is happening with the Reds. Often times, when team's change managers in mid-season, there is an immediate spike in performance. Whether it is due to the desire of the players to impress the new manager, the freedom from no longer working under the old manager, or something else, the effect is not all that rare. That said, it is more than likely a spike in performance, rather than a sustainable, tangible improvement.

I think it's likely that the players are responding to a general change in working conditions, not to the individual new manager himself. The Cannon is in his professional honeymoon period and he'll need to sustain it over the long run before we can say anything definitively about his skill-set.

2) Regression to the Mean

Quite frankly, the Reds should never have been THAT bad. There is too much talent for them to be a last place team, especially with a healthy Jr of old, the emergence of Josh Hamilton, a step forward for Phillips, and a bounce back year from Dunn. Personally, I couldn't understand how they could be THAT bad in the first half.

Given that they were likely under performing, I think a string of good performances should have been expected. Even if the Reds recent streak is an indicator of future performance and not just a response to changes, I'm still not sure Cannon deserves much credit here, as the Reds really couldn't be that terrible forever.

The horrendous bullpen couldn't keep all the positives on this team down forever.

3) He's not Jerry Narron

Accordingly, everyone is willing to cut him some slack and compare him to his predecessor. Narron's tenure would make just about anyone we brought in look good, so again I'm not sure this is a benefit of The Cannon. In order to be the long term manager of this team, you have to bring more to the table than just being better than Narron.

Maybe the Cannon will be a successful manager, but I tend to think he's just caught up in a vortex of positive events that aren't his doing. Personally, I'm still hoping he never gets the chance to shake off that "interim" label. Or, at the very least, has to work very hard to earn it.