Early Marks for Dusty

Despite my very best efforts to keep an open mind, Dusty Baker's early comments deserve a mention and a moment of our time. Unfortunately, there is not much positive to point out in the early going, but there are things about which to worry.

Just to recap, when Dusty was hired there was significant rumbling coming from the fan base. People had several concerns about Dusty Baker, which included 1) his history of overworking young pitchers, 2) his penchant for favoring his favorite veterans over younger players, 3) his utter lack of appreciation for the importance of on base percentage, and 4) his inability to handle any criticism.

When his hiring was announced, something rather unusual happened. There was a collective groan from the fans and almost immediately Baker had to answer questions from the media about the aforementioned tendencies. I can't recall any other managerial candidate being put on the defensive immediately upon being hired, so it was rather unique. While the media pressure was unusual, it oddly enough gave me a sense of hope about the hire. If everyone under the sun was questioning Baker and his managerial tendencies, then maybe he would feel the need to change his wayward ways. Unfortunately, the season hasn't even started and Dusty's comments reveal that he really hasn't changed a bit.

Comment #1: The Need for a Veteran Centerfielder/Leadoff Hitter

Just for a quick recap, the Reds have Adam Dunn in leftfield, Ken Griffey Jr. in rightfield, and Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, and Jay Bruce in the mix for the centerfield job. In the past, I had concerns about Hopper's ability to handle the job on an everyday basis, but he's grown on me this offseason. It's hard to deny that he's the best candidate for the job if Bruce isn't ready to hold it down. In addition, the Reds are also including Chris Dickerson in the race for the centerfield job, though he's a long shot.

Regardless of the fact that the Reds have a couple of quality options for centerfield duty, Dusty has other ideas.

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Leading off for the Reds, Kenny Lofton?

Lofton is among several free agents still without a team as Major League camps opened for Spring Training. Manager Dusty Baker said on Sunday that he's spoken with Lofton and another veteran center fielder, Corey Patterson.

"They're both out there looking for a job," Baker said. "We have to see if it fits the budget here and all kinds of stuff."

Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson have several things in common. Both play centerfield, hit left-handed, and have previously played for Dusty Baker. Another thing they have in common is that neither is an appreciable upgrade over the in-house options for centerfield. However, this is yet another example of Dusty loving "his guys." Kenny Lofton was a tremendous player when he was younger, but at age 41 he isn't an upgrade over Hopper and would only serve to clog up the roster and complicate the arrival of Jay Bruce.

Unfortunately, it's also an example of Dusty having no appreciation of the importance of on base percentage. It's truly difficult to fathom that any professional baseball man could conceivably look at Corey Patterson and see a leadoff hitter. For his career, "C-Patt" has a line of .258/.298/.414/.712, which is hardly impressive for a #8 hitter, much less a lead-off hitter. However, he does have speed, which is clearly the attribute that Dusty feels is most valuable in a leadoff hitter.

It seems very odd that you'd want someone who makes outs so frequently to get the most plate appearances of anyone on the roster, but that's what Dusty would have happen if Patterson joins the Reds.

Sadly, all Reds fans can do is shake their head at Dusty just being Dusty.

Comment #2: Paul Bako and the 3rd Catcher

Unfortunately, Dusty's interest in Lofton and Patterson as centerfielder/leadoff hitter wasn't the only dark cloud on the horizon. Dusty followed it up by expressing an interest in carrying a third catcher. The Reds went down that road last year with Chad Moeller with poor results, but it seems Dusty has interest in a encore performance. Evidently Dusty hasn't studied his history, so regrettably the Reds may be deemed to repeat it.

Three catchers? It's an issue that can muddy any Spring Training debate about the makeup of a final 25-man roster.

Two catchers, or three?

The Reds already have two returning catchers in David Ross and Javier Valentin. But on Feb. 1, veteran Paul Bako, a non-roster invite, was signed to a Minor League deal. From 2003-04, Bako played for Reds manager Dusty Baker.

How much did Baker like Bako in Chicago?

"A lot -- that's why he's here," Baker said.

Baker said it's possible the Reds could carry three catchers.

"It depends on how things go," Baker said. "Late in the game, you'd love to have a guy like Bako behind the plate for a double switch or to pinch-hit. I told [general manager] Wayne [Krivsky] I'm looking for options. The more options I have, the more things you can do, the more people that can play and be put positions where they feel comfortable and succeed."

Dusty is again bringing in "his guys," but the Reds cannot afford to carry a third catcher. On his career, Bako has a line of .233/.306/.315/.621 in 2,003 plate appearances. Dusty talks about wanting "options," but again it's hard to fathom how a competent baseball man could see any positive options that would be brought to the table by Paul Bako.

I'm not sure if Dusty has an illogical appreciation for Paul Bako or if he wants to have a third catcher to free up Javier Valentin for late game pinch hitting, but regardless the Reds simply aren't good enough be able to get away with wasting a roster spot on a player who brings zero production to the table. The Reds need to wring every last drop of production out of each roster spot, not take the field with essentially a 24 man roster.

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

Unfortunately, the season hasn't even started yet and Dusty is already returning to his wayward ways. Spring training is barely underway, but Dusty has already evidenced his absurd tendency to favor "his guys" over younger guys and an utter lack of understanding of the importance of on base percentage.

Thankfully, pitchers and catchers have just reported, so it's still too early for Dusty to have overworked any of our young pitchers, but it's fair to wonder if that can be far behind. Some may say that it's only talk, but it's talk that is indicative of belief. And, sadly, it's incomprehensible that a professional baseball man can entertain such ideas and consider them to be truly worthy of consideration.

At this point, it looks like Dusty is going to just keep on being Dusty, which is bad news for the Reds.

It's official....it's Dusty

Well, the Reds made it official with the announcement of a three year contract for Dusty Baker and Cincinnati toothpick merchants couldn't be happier. Baker would not be my first choice or even my 99th choice, but the "i"s have been dotted and the "t"s have been crossed, so it's a done deal. Accordingly, there's nothing left to do but take an objective look at the Pros and Cons of one Johnnie B. Baker Jr., also known as Dusty.

PROS

1) The Great Communicator is Always Respected by his Players

Dusty is the ultimate players' manager and he is typically very popular in the clubhouse. Baker is a manager who was able to handle Barry Bonds and his antics for several years, granted Baker seemingly let Bonds just play by his own rules.

In addition, Baker always seems to have strong relationships with his players, which creates effective communication. Over the years, the Reds have suffered from a lack of communication in the clubhouse, as there was seemingly a constant rift between the players and management.

Baker will ensure that their is no communication problem in the clubhouse and is unlikely to ruffle anyone's feathers. In addition, this kind of environment may lead to a more cohesive unit on a team in which the whole has always been LESS than the sum of the individual parts.

2) Career W/L

During his 10 years in San Francisco, Baker compiled a Win/Loss record of 840-715 for a Winnign Percentage of .540. During his 4 seasons in Chicago, Baker posed a W/L record of 322-326 for a W% of .497.

Overall, Baker is a "winner," as evidence by his career record of 1162-1041 for a .527 W%.

So, if you believe that a winning track record as a manager is indicative of future performance, then this a definite positive.

3) Stability, Credibility, and National Recognition

Dusty brings instant credibility to the organization, as he is a "name" manager who is well known in baseball circles across the nation. This move increases the media recognition of the Reds and brightens the spotlight on baseball's oldest franchise. Having Dusty at the helm will make the nation and the media sit up and take notice of the Reds more than the previous lesser lights at the helm of the Reds.

In addition, this move ends the non-stop turnover at the manager position, as Dusty is very likely to serve out his entire 3 year contract in Cincy. His track record will give him the benefit of the doubt and then some in Cincinnati. The odds of him being fired before the end of his 3 year contract are very slim. The Reds have needed stability in the front office and on the field, so retaining Krivsky and bringing in Dusty will achieve that goal.

CONS

1) Overworking Young Pitchers

This is biggest concern about Baker for Reds fans and one I touched on earlier. Dusty Baker does not believe in pitch counts and has consistently exhibited a tendency to overwork young pitchers. He did it with Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano in Chicago and he did it with Joe Nathan in San Francisco.

This is a big cause for concern for Reds fans as the organization is FINALLY on the verge of developing some quality young pitching. It has been several decades of frustration for the organization and fans, as top pitching prospects have been felled by injuries and ineptitude, leaving Tom Browning as the last quality starting pitcher developed by the Reds.

Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto are looking like top of the rotation starters in the near future, so handing their futures over to Dusty Baker seems like a risky proposition, to say the least. Reds fans should be VERY concerned about Baker and his tendency to overwork his young starters.

2) Penchant for Veterans

Throughout his managerial career, Dusty has played favorites. He has always had an affinity for certain veteran players, which would be fine if those players were more productive. However, the players he favors are often those who aren't overly valuable or productive. Over his managerial career, Dusty has loved infielder Ramon Martinez, Neifi Perez, and Darren Lewis.

This tendency wouldn't be a problem if Dusty picked more productive veterans to favor, but his favorites often seem to be players who are bested suited to limited duty. Unfortunately, being a "Dusty favorite" always results in a player receiveing more playing time than is deserved.

Regrettably, his preference for veterans may result in an inequitable distribution of the playing time in Cincinnati.

3) Rabbit Ears

Throughout his career, Dusty has proven himself to be rather thin skinned. In San Francisco, which is a very laid back media environment, Baker constantly blanched at perceived criticisms. The environment in San Francisco pales in comparison to the pressures of the East Coast, where criticism, where justified or not, is quite simply the name of the game.

In Chicago, Baker took exception to criticism from broadcaster Steve Stone, which ultimately led to the "resignation"/departure of Stone. Once again, Baker handled criticism poorly and it negatively impacted the organization.

The media scrutiny in the Midwest isn't as harsh as in New York, but it would seem to be harsher than on the West Coast. Accordingly, it's not unreasonable to expect friction between Baker and the media during his time in Cincy.

In fact, a confrontation between Dusty and the Brennaman boys seems like a forgone conclusion, as the Brennamans specialize in criticizing the hometown squad in their never ending "quest for objectivity."

Future Implications

The 2008 season will be a pivotal one for the Reds, as the Reds will begin working impact homegrown pitching prospects (Homer Bailey & Johnny Cueto) into the rotation and begin to rely heavily on top offensive prospects (Jay Bruce & Joey Votto). These two factors, to a large extent, will determine the success of the Reds over the next 5 years. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker is the exact wrong choose to reach those two goals.

Baker's preference for veterans may result in him favoring Scott Hatteberg (if he's back) over Joey Votto or Ryan Freel over Edwin Encarnacion or Jay Bruce. To be successful, the Reds need to be relying MORE heavily on young talent, not LESS. This is just one reason that Dusty is coming along at just the wrong time for this organization.

In addition, Dusty's long exhibited tendency to overwork young pitching prospect is a disastrous tendency for the Reds in 2008. The Reds finally have some impact pitchers coming out of their farm system, but now they seemed destined to be ruined at the MLB level. The success of the organization over the next decade rests largely on the right arms of Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, so any move that increases their risk of injury is a poorly conceived idea. On the bright side, maybe the Reds can act fast and get the volume discount on Tommy John/Shoulder Surgeries.

All in all, unless Dusty can reign in his two negative tendencies, it's difficult to see how this hire makes sense. I'd feel much better about this hire if the Reds were able to follow it up with a hire of Leo Mazzone to handle the pitching staff. The Pope of Pitching would offset Dusty's harmful tendencies, but the Reds are probably last on his list of destinations.

To be successful, Dusty needs to learn to limit the workloads on young arms and rely on young talent over less talented veterans. While his managerial track record doesn't show any evidence of it, Reds fans better hope that an old dog can learn new tricks.

Just say no......to Dusty

Reports indicate that the Reds are interested in Dusty Baker, who would be about the last person the Reds should hire. Dusty has a long history of favoring veteran players (Neifi Perez, Mark Gardner, etc) over younger ones. Even more disturbingly, he has a power track record in handling young pitchers. Given that the Reds are finally on the verge of developing impact starting pitching to end a decades long drought, handing the careers of those young pitchers over to Dusty Baker would be a disaster.

Baker was handed one of the top pitching prospects to come out of the amateur ranks in quite a long time. After his first full season under Baker's direction, Prior has never been the same. You can debate how much of the fault lies with Baker, but given the research of Will Carroll based on the work of Dr. Mike Marshall, Dr. James Andrews, and Dr. Frank Jobe indicates a dangerous correlation between heavy workload at a young age and shoulder/elbow injuries. The injury risk for pitchers aged 23 or younger is much higher than for other pitchers, which is why most wise organizations limit the workloads and pitch counts of their young pitchers.

In 2003, Mark Prior was 22 years old and enter his first full season at the MLB level. He was coming out of USC as one of the most heralded pitching prospects of recent memory. He had a fantastic season in 2003, one for the ages, but he's never been the same since. Here's a look at Prior's workload and Dusty's handling of him during that season.


A LOOK AT 2003

In 2003, Mark Prior pitched 211.1 regular season innings and then went on to throw 23.1 more innings in the postseason, so he threw a cumulative 234.2 innings in 2003.

I just checked and by my count, he made 30 starts and here is the number of times he threw under 100 pitches and between 100-109 pitches, 110-119 pitches, 120-130 pitches, and 131+ pitches during the regular season:

Under 100: 4 Times
100-109: 7 Times
110-119: 10 Times
120-130: 6 Times
131 or more: 3 Times

So, he only threw fewer than 100 pitches in 4 out of his 30 starts.


PRIOR IN THE 2003 PLAYOFFS

More fun facts, look what Dusty did to him in September, when the Cubs needed to make a push for the postseason.

Sept. 1: 131 pitches
Sept. 6: 129 pitches
Sept. 11: 109 pitches
Sept 16: 124 pitches
Sept 21: 131 pitches
Sept 27: 133 pitches

By my count, that's 6 starts and 757 pitches in September at the end of a long season. Not to mention, back to back starts of 130+ pitches in the final 2 weeks of the season. After a long year and a lot of innings, Dusty had Prior throw two of his highest pitch count games.

Now, on to the postseason, where Prior put up the following pitch counts:

10/3 NLDS Game 3: CG 132 Pitches
10/8 NLCS Game 2: 115 Pitches (115 pitches despite Cubs scoring 12 runs through 6)
10/14 NLCS Game 6: 119 Pitches


WORKLOAD BREAKDOWN

When you add in the 366 pitches he threw in 3 post season games, Prior threw a grand total of 3,764 pitches in 33 starts in 2003.

Regular Season
Pitches: 3,398
GS: 30
#P/GS: 113

Post Season
Pitches: 366
GS: 3
#P/GS: 122


COMPARED TO A WORKHORSE

Just to help put Prior's workload in his age 22 season into the appropriate context, let's compare his workload to that of legendary workhorse Aaron Harang.

Over the past three seasons, Harang has thrown the following number of pitches:

2005: 3,402 (32 Starts, #P/GS: 106)
2006: 3,734 (35 Starts, #P/GS: 107)
2007: 3,583 (34 Starts, #P/GS: 105)


So, at the ripe old age of 22, Mark Prior threw more pitches in a single season (combined regular season and postseason) than Aaron Harang ever has. And, he did it in fewer starts, which means that he threw far more pitches per start. Modern researches also indicates that an arm is much more susceptible to injury when fatigued, so throwing more pitches means that the risk of arm injury is even higher. Evidently, Prior should be thankful that he missed a few starts over a stretch in July/August, or else his arm might have just flown right off.

In short, what happened to Mark Prior in 2003 is something that should never happen in the modern game. Modern medicine has removed some of the fog over pitching injuries and revealed that one of the quickest ways to ruin a young pitcher is to overwork him. It cannot be definitively said that Baker caused Prior to get injured, but given what we know about young pitchers and heavy workloads, he certainly put Prior at a substantially higher risk of injury.


IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REDS

Given the pivotal role that Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto will be required to play in the future for the Reds, Dusty Baker is absolutely the wrong choice as manager. The Reds have taken a lot of steps to improve their player development department to ensure the health of their young prospects, but hiring Dusty Baker would be a gigantic step backwards.

Just say no to Dusty Baker.

News on the Manager Search

With the 2007 season in the rearview mirror, it's time for the Reds to bring looking towards 2008. In that spirit, Wayne Krivsky announced that the Reds would begin their search for a manager in earnest. The Reds will be looking at candidates from outside the organization, as well as interim manager Pete Mackanin. That said, it's difficult to envision Mackanin being retained as manager for 2008 and beyond. One would think that if that was going to happen, it would have happened before now.

"Pete is a candidate. He's definitely a candidate," Krivsky said. "People ask me about timetables and there isn't one. I'd rather get something done sooner than later. The sooner we know, it takes the uncertainty out of people's minds that are here."

The other 3 interim managers in the majors in 2007 (Cecil Cooper, John McLaren, and Dave Trembly), all had their interim tags removed already, so it's difficult to imagine the Reds giving Mackanin serious consideration at this point. The Reds desire to go outside the organization would seem to provide substantial evidence that they do not view Mackanin as a viable long-term option.

Given the Reds instability at the manager spot over the past decade or two, the Reds seem to be handling the situation wisely. To take the next step, the Reds need to continue to fill each spot in the organization with a quality option. Adding a top notch manager to the mix could bring the Reds much needed stability.

Since the Reds replaced Pete Rose in 1989, the Reds have gone through nine different managers and actually had three different managers in 2003. Over that time, not one manager has lasted at least four seasons and Ray Knight actually had two stints at the helm.

It's obvious that the Reds recognize the importance of getting it right this time, so expanding the search to outside candidates is a very good sign. To take a step forward, the Reds need to continue adding pieces to the puzzle. Adding a top flight manager would be a big piece.

Mackanin's Last Straw?

For those in favor of bringing Pete Mackanin back for 2008, today's game seems to be the prosecution's exhibit A when making the case against it.

It's the end of a long season and Aaron Harang has been nothing short of brilliant for the Reds in 2007. If there is a more important player for the Reds chances in 2008, I don't know who it would be.

That said, seeing Pete Mackanin leave Harang out there in his final start to throw 125 pitches was mind boggling. Given the Reds overflowing bullpen and their need to get a look at some of the young relievers so they can properly evaluate them, it's hard to find any support for making Harang work so hard. It would be one thing if the game had playoff implications, but the Cubs have already clinched the NL Central, so there is no reason why Harang should have been worked so hard.

Despite Mackanin's poor handling of the situation, it's hard not to be amazed by Harang. Of his 125 pitches, Harang threw 95 strikes. A remarkable game from the undisputed ace of the staff, but it would be nice to have him healthy and productive in 2008.

The Reds ran out of steam over the final couple of weeks, which may be a good thing for the Reds. They have gone 9-17 in September and lost their last 7 in a row. This collapse is proof positive that the Reds improved play had less to do with the hiring of Mackanin than it did the firing of Narron. Sometimes change is just good for change's sake. Hopefully, the Reds will bring in a highly qualified and competent manager for 2008 and show Mackanin the door. Mackanin doesn't deserve to be considered for the 2008 managerial job, but rather just deserves thanks for keeping the ship off the rocks over the second half of the season.

The Cannon

Personally, I think we need to maintain a bit of perspective on Pete Mackanin.

I'm not wild about already hearing discussions about keeping him on for 2008, because I'm not sure he's really doing anything revolutionary. Not to mention, he has three things going for him that are creating a fog over his actual managerial skills:

1) The morbidly named "Dead Cat Bounce" theory,
2) The Reds regression to the mean, and
3) He's not Jerry Narron.

I think those are the three main factors for the Reds success since he took over and I don't think any of those are signs that we should keep him around.

1) The Dead Cat Bounce refers to the idea that a moderate improvement in performance after a sustained period of poor performance does not necessarily indicate improving circumstances. Basically, even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from a great enough height. The Reds have been in freefall all year, so a bit of a bounce back doesn't mean that they are on the verge of very good things.

That said, I think the Reds recent improvement is likely due to a response to external changes, not due to any real, fundamental improvement in the team itself. I think we are getting a bit carried away that the addition of the Cannon has truly changed things in Cincy. The Reds still are what they are, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (see: #2).

There was an interesting article I read that discussed a study performed on the productivity of factor workers. Factory workers worked in a controlled environment under the same conditions for a substantial period of time. One day, the overhead lights were turned up, which made it brighter in the factory (although, the same effect was seen when they made it darker). After that simple change in working conditions the productivity of the employee's improved. Of course, it went back to normal levels after the employees adjusted to the new condition and the effect was not sustainable if changes were made day after day.

I think that's part of what is happening with the Reds. Often times, when team's change managers in mid-season, there is an immediate spike in performance. Whether it is due to the desire of the players to impress the new manager, the freedom from no longer working under the old manager, or something else, the effect is not all that rare. That said, it is more than likely a spike in performance, rather than a sustainable, tangible improvement.

I think it's likely that the players are responding to a general change in working conditions, not to the individual new manager himself. The Cannon is in his professional honeymoon period and he'll need to sustain it over the long run before we can say anything definitively about his skill-set.

2) Regression to the Mean

Quite frankly, the Reds should never have been THAT bad. There is too much talent for them to be a last place team, especially with a healthy Jr of old, the emergence of Josh Hamilton, a step forward for Phillips, and a bounce back year from Dunn. Personally, I couldn't understand how they could be THAT bad in the first half.

Given that they were likely under performing, I think a string of good performances should have been expected. Even if the Reds recent streak is an indicator of future performance and not just a response to changes, I'm still not sure Cannon deserves much credit here, as the Reds really couldn't be that terrible forever.

The horrendous bullpen couldn't keep all the positives on this team down forever.

3) He's not Jerry Narron

Accordingly, everyone is willing to cut him some slack and compare him to his predecessor. Narron's tenure would make just about anyone we brought in look good, so again I'm not sure this is a benefit of The Cannon. In order to be the long term manager of this team, you have to bring more to the table than just being better than Narron.

Maybe the Cannon will be a successful manager, but I tend to think he's just caught up in a vortex of positive events that aren't his doing. Personally, I'm still hoping he never gets the chance to shake off that "interim" label. Or, at the very least, has to work very hard to earn it.