News on the Manager Search

With the 2007 season in the rearview mirror, it's time for the Reds to bring looking towards 2008. In that spirit, Wayne Krivsky announced that the Reds would begin their search for a manager in earnest. The Reds will be looking at candidates from outside the organization, as well as interim manager Pete Mackanin. That said, it's difficult to envision Mackanin being retained as manager for 2008 and beyond. One would think that if that was going to happen, it would have happened before now.

"Pete is a candidate. He's definitely a candidate," Krivsky said. "People ask me about timetables and there isn't one. I'd rather get something done sooner than later. The sooner we know, it takes the uncertainty out of people's minds that are here."

The other 3 interim managers in the majors in 2007 (Cecil Cooper, John McLaren, and Dave Trembly), all had their interim tags removed already, so it's difficult to imagine the Reds giving Mackanin serious consideration at this point. The Reds desire to go outside the organization would seem to provide substantial evidence that they do not view Mackanin as a viable long-term option.

Given the Reds instability at the manager spot over the past decade or two, the Reds seem to be handling the situation wisely. To take the next step, the Reds need to continue to fill each spot in the organization with a quality option. Adding a top notch manager to the mix could bring the Reds much needed stability.

Since the Reds replaced Pete Rose in 1989, the Reds have gone through nine different managers and actually had three different managers in 2003. Over that time, not one manager has lasted at least four seasons and Ray Knight actually had two stints at the helm.

It's obvious that the Reds recognize the importance of getting it right this time, so expanding the search to outside candidates is a very good sign. To take a step forward, the Reds need to continue adding pieces to the puzzle. Adding a top flight manager would be a big piece.

Mackanin's Last Straw?

For those in favor of bringing Pete Mackanin back for 2008, today's game seems to be the prosecution's exhibit A when making the case against it.

It's the end of a long season and Aaron Harang has been nothing short of brilliant for the Reds in 2007. If there is a more important player for the Reds chances in 2008, I don't know who it would be.

That said, seeing Pete Mackanin leave Harang out there in his final start to throw 125 pitches was mind boggling. Given the Reds overflowing bullpen and their need to get a look at some of the young relievers so they can properly evaluate them, it's hard to find any support for making Harang work so hard. It would be one thing if the game had playoff implications, but the Cubs have already clinched the NL Central, so there is no reason why Harang should have been worked so hard.

Despite Mackanin's poor handling of the situation, it's hard not to be amazed by Harang. Of his 125 pitches, Harang threw 95 strikes. A remarkable game from the undisputed ace of the staff, but it would be nice to have him healthy and productive in 2008.

The Reds ran out of steam over the final couple of weeks, which may be a good thing for the Reds. They have gone 9-17 in September and lost their last 7 in a row. This collapse is proof positive that the Reds improved play had less to do with the hiring of Mackanin than it did the firing of Narron. Sometimes change is just good for change's sake. Hopefully, the Reds will bring in a highly qualified and competent manager for 2008 and show Mackanin the door. Mackanin doesn't deserve to be considered for the 2008 managerial job, but rather just deserves thanks for keeping the ship off the rocks over the second half of the season.

Game Day Thoughts: Friday Reds v. Giants

**Norris Hopper dropped down a bunt on the first pitch of the game and beat it out for a single. By the time he got back to first base, home plate umpire Bob Davidson had called him out for being out of the batters box when contact was made. Replays clearly show that Hopper was inside the box and Davidson blew the call. To top it all off, Davidson then proceeded to eject Hopper, who was riding Davidson from the dugout. Davidson, who is deridingly known as Balkin' Bob for his overzealous balk calls, clearly compounded the problem by throwing Hopper out of the game. MLB umpires are the best in all the major sports, but Davidson's performance tonight was an embarrassment.

**Mackanin really handled the Hopper situation poorly, as he should have been out of the dugout arguing the call. If he had gone out to argue the call, then Hopper likely wouldn't have been thrown out of the game. Poorly handled by both Balkin' Bob and Mackanin.

**The Reds first three hitters of the game put the first pitch they saw into play. Hopper should have been safe at first on the bunt and Keppinger and Phillips both hit the ball hard, but I'd like to see a bit more patience at the plate. There's really no reason why Hopper had to drop the bunt down on the first pitch. One of the jobs of the leadoff hitter is to take pitches to let the players behind you see what the pitcher is throwing. Hopper needs to demonstrate a greater understanding of what it takes to be an effective leadoff man before he can lay claim to a larger role for the Reds. Hopper needs to realize that singles hitters who can't set the table are not worthy of substantive roles at the MLB level.

**Jeff Keppinger made a real nice play at shortstop on a slow roller by Bengie Molina. Obviously, Kepp had a lot of time given the glacial pace at which Molina moves down the line, but Kepp charged hard, had good footwork, made a smooth transition with the ball from glove to hand, and made a strong throw on the run. Those are the kind of plays that give you confidence that maybe Keppinger can handle short over the long haul.

**Jorge Cantu put a few nice swings on the ball and racked up three doubles. As of right now, he looks like another steal for GM Wayne Krivsky. Cantu isn't likely to be a starter, but he gives the Reds a nice bat off the bench and greater flexibility on defense. Given that the Reds gave up almost nothing to get him (Cantu, Shaun Cumberland, and cash for Brian Shackelford, Calvin Medlock, and future considerations) he's another good risk/reward move by Krivsky.

**Buck Coats is intriguing. He may not be a starter, but he looks like he could be a solid 4th or 5th outfielder. He plays good defense, has good speed, and seems to hit a little bit. Could be a nice depth acquisition by Krivsky.

**Kevin Frandsen is really hitting the ball well as of late. He's locked in and hitting line drives from gap to gap. He's got good pitch recognition and tremendous bat control. He's going to be a pretty good player. The Giants think he's another Robby Thompson with more offensive upside, which isn't half bad.

**It's hard to believe how much good young pitching the Giants have acquired. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Noah Lowry, and even Pat Misch look like potential impact starting pitchers at the MLB level. It's really an embarrassment of riches.

**It'll be very interesting to see how the Reds handle Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger. For the past few years, critics have been saying that the Reds rely too heavily on the long ball and need a more diversified offense. Critics point to the strikeout totals of the team as being a big problem. While I don't necessarily agree, as I think the detrimental impact of strikeouts is overrated, it's clear that Keppinger and Hopper are the type of contact hitters for whom the public has been clamoring.

For his career, Jeff Keppinger has made contact on 94% of his swings, while Hopper is at 88% for his career. Just for comparison sake, Ichiro is at 89% for his career. Keppinger and Hopper rarely swing and miss, but also don't walk or tally many extra base hits. So, would they help diversify the offense or act as a drag on the team's production?

**Interesting to see Joey Votto play. In the day of the hulking slugger, it's interesting to see a good hitting firstbase prospect who isn't muscle bound.

**Poor job by Jason Ellison on the ball hit by Omar Vizquel in the 6th inning. Coats made a sliding effort, but Ellison wasn't in position to back him up. Obviously neither Coats or Ellison is a starter in 2008, but that play is just emblematic of the Reds need to improve the defense for 2008. They won't improve until the team defense is better.

In 2006, the Reds DER was .684. In 2007, the team DER has actually fallen to .680. So, despite moving Griffey out of center and bringing in Alex Gonzalez, the Reds are turning "balls in play" into outs at a lower clip. The Reds MUST improve the defense or they will NEVER become a viable playoff team.

**It's time to close the book on Matt Belisle. He's just not an effective starting pitcher.

**Phillips seems to be pressing to get his 30th homer. If he does get one more homer, then he'll join Barry Larkin, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano as the only middle infielders in MLB history to have 30 homers and 30 steals in a season.

**Mike Stanton may well be done. He gave up a three run homer to Omar Vizquel in Pac Bell Park. That's not easy to do. How hard is it? Prior to his homer off Stanton, Omar had 2 homers on the season and only 1 in Pac Bell Park and had not hit a righthanded homerun since June of 2005.

The Cannon

Personally, I think we need to maintain a bit of perspective on Pete Mackanin.

I'm not wild about already hearing discussions about keeping him on for 2008, because I'm not sure he's really doing anything revolutionary. Not to mention, he has three things going for him that are creating a fog over his actual managerial skills:

1) The morbidly named "Dead Cat Bounce" theory,
2) The Reds regression to the mean, and
3) He's not Jerry Narron.

I think those are the three main factors for the Reds success since he took over and I don't think any of those are signs that we should keep him around.

1) The Dead Cat Bounce refers to the idea that a moderate improvement in performance after a sustained period of poor performance does not necessarily indicate improving circumstances. Basically, even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from a great enough height. The Reds have been in freefall all year, so a bit of a bounce back doesn't mean that they are on the verge of very good things.

That said, I think the Reds recent improvement is likely due to a response to external changes, not due to any real, fundamental improvement in the team itself. I think we are getting a bit carried away that the addition of the Cannon has truly changed things in Cincy. The Reds still are what they are, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (see: #2).

There was an interesting article I read that discussed a study performed on the productivity of factor workers. Factory workers worked in a controlled environment under the same conditions for a substantial period of time. One day, the overhead lights were turned up, which made it brighter in the factory (although, the same effect was seen when they made it darker). After that simple change in working conditions the productivity of the employee's improved. Of course, it went back to normal levels after the employees adjusted to the new condition and the effect was not sustainable if changes were made day after day.

I think that's part of what is happening with the Reds. Often times, when team's change managers in mid-season, there is an immediate spike in performance. Whether it is due to the desire of the players to impress the new manager, the freedom from no longer working under the old manager, or something else, the effect is not all that rare. That said, it is more than likely a spike in performance, rather than a sustainable, tangible improvement.

I think it's likely that the players are responding to a general change in working conditions, not to the individual new manager himself. The Cannon is in his professional honeymoon period and he'll need to sustain it over the long run before we can say anything definitively about his skill-set.

2) Regression to the Mean

Quite frankly, the Reds should never have been THAT bad. There is too much talent for them to be a last place team, especially with a healthy Jr of old, the emergence of Josh Hamilton, a step forward for Phillips, and a bounce back year from Dunn. Personally, I couldn't understand how they could be THAT bad in the first half.

Given that they were likely under performing, I think a string of good performances should have been expected. Even if the Reds recent streak is an indicator of future performance and not just a response to changes, I'm still not sure Cannon deserves much credit here, as the Reds really couldn't be that terrible forever.

The horrendous bullpen couldn't keep all the positives on this team down forever.

3) He's not Jerry Narron

Accordingly, everyone is willing to cut him some slack and compare him to his predecessor. Narron's tenure would make just about anyone we brought in look good, so again I'm not sure this is a benefit of The Cannon. In order to be the long term manager of this team, you have to bring more to the table than just being better than Narron.

Maybe the Cannon will be a successful manager, but I tend to think he's just caught up in a vortex of positive events that aren't his doing. Personally, I'm still hoping he never gets the chance to shake off that "interim" label. Or, at the very least, has to work very hard to earn it.