2013 Top Prospect List: #23 Henry Rodriguez, 2b/3b

HENRY RODRIGUEZ

Courtesy: MILB.com

DOB: 2/9/1990
HEIGHT: 5-8 WEIGHT: 200 B/T: S/R

After doing these write-ups for a number of years, it becomes very clear that if you are a one-dimensional player, then it had better be a helluva dimension. To reach the majors, you really need a diversified skill set. If you have just one real value-driver, then it's a steep uphill climb to the majors.

At this point in his development, Henry Rodriguez is looking very one dimensional. At best, he's looking like an empty batting average type player. Earlier in his career, it looked like he might provide some speed and average glove-work, but those components have tailed off, maybe because of injuries.

Rodriguez has endured some significant injuries, including a broken ankle late in 2011 and a broke thumb, which cost him a month-and-a-half, in 2012. At the very least, those injuries didn't help his development and may have dragged down his physical tools. In that spirit, it may be telling that he stole 33 bases in 2010 and 30 in 2011, but only 8 in 2012, his first season back after the ankle injury. As a prospect, Rodriguez was already marginal in a number of areas and, whether or not injuries played a part, his development has stalled.


2012 SEASON

In 2012, Henry piled up the frequent flier miles, making stops at the rookie Arizona League, double-A Pensacola, triple-A Louisville, and a quick cup of coffee at the major league level.

Courtesy: Unknown

He logged only 18 PAs in the Arizona League, a stop made as part of his rehab for the broken thumb. For double-A, he hit .348/.385/.439/.824 with 2 homers and an 18/9 K/BB ratio over 144 plate appearances. His performance level took a hit when he reached triple-A, as he hit .244/.264/.333/.597 with 3 homers and an atrocious 35/6 K/BB ratio over 221 plate appearances. Regardless, it earned him a cup of coffee in the majors, where he posted a .214/.313/.285/.598 line with a 2/2 K/BB ratio over 16 plate appearances.

Overall, it was an uneven season for Rodriguez. He seemed to hit the wall between double-A and triple-A, which is somewhat surprising given that the jump to double-A is usually considered the most difficult and he handled that one well. However, triple-A is frequently populated by older players with MLB experience, so maybe it's not surprising that his K/BB ratio plummeted when facing more experienced pitchers who have a greater understanding of how to exploit overly aggressive hitters.


SWING MECHANICS

Rodriguez is a switch-hitter. His mechanics are solid from both sides of the plate, which when paired with his good hand-eye coordination gives him a solid hit-tool and the ability to consistently put the barrel on the ball. Even so, the problem that Rodriguez faces is twofold. He doesn't support his hit-tool with on-base ability and his smaller stature limits his ability to generate power, leaving him as something of an "empty batting average" type hitter.

Courtesy: Unknown

Pre-pitch from the left-side, Rodriguez has a very open stance and holds his hands up high by his left ear. He actually uses two variations of his stride. In one version, he uses a two-part stride. The first part is a step towards the plate, landing on just the toe, to close up his stance, before striding forward to transfer the weight and meet the pitch. In the other version, he uses one continuous motion for his stride. Using more of a leg-kick stride, he draws his front foot back, lingering in the air for a moment, before striding forward to meet the pitch. The former leaves him less susceptible to being fooled by offspeed pitches, while the latter likely generates a touch more power.

Pre-pitch from the right-side, Rodriguez again uses an open stance, but holds his hands lower than he does from the left-side. His stride is similar to the one continuous motion stride he uses from the left-side. He uses leg-kick type stride, drawing his foot back, lingering in the air for a moment, before striding forward to transfer the weight and meet the pitch.

From both sides, in order to generate load, he draws his hands back and down into hitting position and turns his front hip inward as he strides forward. At his best, he buries his back elbow in close to his back hip until reaching the point of contact and generates sufficient lower body rotation to drive up on his back toe, getting good extension despite a fairly compact swing. At his worst, his high leg-kick stride gets him out on the front foot, leaving him with minimal lower body rotation in his swing and forcing him to reach for the pitch with nothing more than an arm swing.  

Rodriguez doesn't have plus bat speed, but his swing path is a slight upper-cut which should maximize the size of his contact zone. He uses his hands well in the swing, allowing him to make consistent, hard contact. However, his smaller stature and shorter levers make it difficult for him to generate leverage and power. His swing is more fluid and natural from the left-side, but more powerful from the right side. Overall, he's solid from both sides of the plate, which would should enable him to avoid a significant platoon split and remain a viable option from both sides of the plate.

Here's a look at Rodriguez courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues on YouTube:







At the Major League Level, the Reds could use another professional hitter or two. Players with plus hit-tools in the mold of in their primes Placido Polanco, Martin Prado, or Billy Mueller. The former two never brought much OBP to the table, but they more than made up for it with very strong hit-tools that allowed them to post consistently high batting averages. Unfortunately, despite several seasons of .300+ batting averages, it looks like Henry's hit-tool and production are going to fall short of that level, which makes his limitations in other areas all the more glaring.



DEFENSE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

The Reds have a choice with Henry Rodriguez. Play him at third where he's a tick below average. Or, play him at second where he's well below average. Whichever they choose, he just doesn't generate much defensive value.

Courtesy: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

At second, Rodriguez just doesn't have the necessary range, nor does he acquit himself well around the bag. At third, his range is less of a problem, but his arm isn't great. Given his solid speed, it's surprising that it hasn't better translated to his range in the field.


In fact, it's surprising that he isn't a better defensive player overall, as he does have good athleticism. But, his instincts aren't great, leading to poor reads off the bat and underwhelming range. Further, his hand actions aren't great, as his conversion rate on the balls-in-play that he reaches isn't strong. Over his minor league career, he has a lackluster .971 fielding percentage over 1619 chances at second base and a .932 fielding percentage over 380 chances at third base.

Some scouts have questioned Rodriguez's focus in the field and openly questioned whether his defensive problems are more the result of questionable makeup than a lack of athleticism.


FINAL THOUGHTS

At one time, Rodriguez looked like a potential league average starter at the MLB level, but his positive attributes have fallen off, while his negative attributes haven't improved. It's not too late for him to improve, especially if lingering injuries are causing the decline in his performance level, but at this point his ceiling is looking more like that of a utility infielder than a legitimate MLB starter.

The Reds could use another player with a pure hit-tool, as their MLB lineup is lacking in that area. At one time, Rodriguez was on a development path that would have landed him in the majors this year, but his development has stalled, calling into question whether he'll be able to regain his footing and reclaim an MLB career.

For now, he checks in at #23 on the list.

2011 Top Prospect List: #14 Henry Rodriguez, 2b

Henry Rodriguez
Height 5-10, Weight 150, B/T: S/R, DOB: 2/9/1990
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: N/A

Henry Rodriguez is one of many intriguing prospects that the organization has begun to stockpile out of Latin America. The Reds signed Henry as an international free agent out of Venezuela on March 27, 2007. Building a top flight farm system requires an organization to both draft well and sign international talent. The renewed efforts in international scouting have already begun to pay off with the emergence of Johnny Cueto, but the next wave of talent is in the pipeline. Henry Rodriguez is one of the more interesting international signings the organization has made in the past few years.


2010 Season

In 2010, Rodriguez made his first appearance in full season professional ball at the age of 20. He spent almost the entire season at low-A Dayton, where he logged 514 ABs in which he compiled a .307/.337/.473/.810 to go along with 37 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 homeruns. He also posted a 70/22 K/BB ratio and was a legitimate threat on the bases, as evidenced by his 33 stolen bases in 46 attempts. His component stats largely support his production, as he hit line drives at a 19% clip and had a fairly reasonable BABIP of .333. So, he might have been a touch lucky, but by and large he earned what he produced in 2010.

The Reds saw enough to bump Henry up to high-A Lynchburg to finish out the season. For the Hillcats, Rodriguez played in 6 games and logged 24 ABs. A very small sample size, but for the record he hit .250/.250/.250 with 6 singles and 4 strikeouts.

Henry should be heading back to high-A for a return engagement in 2011.


Swing Mechanics

After a bit of a dry-spell, the Reds have found a few switch-hitters of note, including Tucker Barnhart, Yasmani Grandal, and Henry Rodriguez. All three are looking like legitimate MLB prospects and their ability to hit from both sides will add a nice bit of versatility to the lineup.

So, we have to do double-duty on his mechanics, so let's start with Henry's righthanded swing. Despite being a player who is smaller in stature, Henry generates surprisingly good pop. To do so, he uses a lot of lower body action. He starts with a slightly narrower than shoulder-width stance, which gives him a very upright look to his pre-pitch stance. He holds his hands next to his right ear with a high back elbow. As the pitcher gets ready to deliver, Henry picks his foot well up off the ground and uses a long stride towards the mound.

His stride effectively cocks his hips by rotating them inward during his stride. In fact, he almost seems to slightly wrap his front leg around his body when he strides, which really helps him generate power with his hip rotation. In tandem with his stride, he begins to draw his hands back into proper hitting position.

The higher leg kick operates as a timing mechanism, but one of the drawbacks of it is that crafty pitchers can successfully upset his timing with offspeed pitches by getting him out on the front foot too early. When that happens, his bat-speed necessarily slows down, typically resulting in an arm-swing and a weak ground out. Ideally, Henry would be able to generate good power without having to resort to such an active lower half, but in this case the impressive power production may be a fair trade off for a bit of inconsistency. When the timing is right, Henry has a quick bat and a fairly direct path to the ball. He gets good extension out through the ball and generates surprising power for his size.

Here's a look at Rodriguez hitting from the right side, courtesy of coreybrinn on youtube:









From the left side, Henry uses a very different stance. Interestingly enough, very few switch-hitters actually use an identical swing from both sides of the plate. Henry uses a wider than shoulder width stance that is somewhat open before the pitch is delivered. He holds his hands up high, almost over his head, with the barrel of the bat pointed down at the ground.

As the pitcher gets ready to deliver the pitch, Henry starts his two part stride. First, he brings his foot in towards the plate to close up his stance, but then moves it forward towards the mound. The first part of the stride looks like a toe-tap before he strides toward the pitcher to effectuate the weight transfer. As his stride is in motion, Henry brings his hands down into hitting position, which necessarily results in the barrel of the bat moving up into a 45-degree angle.

As with his righthanded swing, his stride from the left-side allows him to cock his hips. The first part of his stride closes up his stance and rotates his hips inward, which again allows him to generate power. His swing has a slight uppercut to it, which helps him generate loft on the ball.

Not surprisingly, Henry's swing seems a bit more fluid and natural from the left-side of the plate, but his swing is solid from both sides of the plate. Given his swing mechanics, he should avoid a significant platoon split and remain a viable option from both sides of the plate as he climbs the ladder.


Here's a look at Rodriguez hitting from the left side, again courtesy of coreybrinn on youtube:








Speed, Defense, and Positional Value

In addition to his solid power, Rodriguez also runs well, as evidenced by his 33 stolen bases. He needs to continue to work on reading the pitcher and getting good jumps, but that typically comes with experience and maturity. When that happens, his success rate should improve and make him a more valuable asset on the basepaths. Recent statistical studies reveal that a player needs to be successful around 75% of the time for the extra bases to outweigh the cost of the times he is caught stealing. If the player's success rate falls below that threshold, then he's doing his team more harm than good by trying to steal bases.

Rodriguez's good speed also serves him well in the field, as he possesses good range. He also has solid defensive fundamentals. In 552 chances at Dayton, Henry made 14 errors, which was good for a .975 fielding percentage. Ideally, he can cut down on that number as he climbs the ladder, but it's not too shabby for a young player in his first full season of professional baseball.

All in all, there is good reason to be optimistic about his defensive play, which will only help drive up his prospect value. If you are an above average defensive player at a premier defensive position, then you don't have to provide all that much with the bat to justify your spot on the 25-man roster. And, his early work in the professional ranks support the notion that Rodriguez is already on his way to being an above average defensive second baseman. In fact, if the Reds didn't have so many legitimate options at shortstop, then Rodriguez might have gotten a legitimate look at the 6 position. However, as it stands, he's settling in rather nicely on the other side of the bag.


Final Thoughts

Rodriguez is an interesting prospect with a nice set of tools. His ceiling is somewhat limited by his smaller stature, but he still manages to generate good power. Rodriguez does have one significant drawback that has derailed many a career. The big red flag on Henry is his inability to effectively control the strike zone. That's usually a big minus in my ledger, but for now Rodriguez is showing enough positional value, power potential, speed, and defensive skill to land at #14 on the list. I'd love to see him develop his ability to control the strike zone, but more realistically he should probably focus on becoming an impact early-count hitter with limited strikeouts and walks.