The Scott Rolen Experiment

I'll get this out of the way right now.

I like this deal.

I know I'm one of the few, but I like what the Reds have done here. It's not easy to restructure a roster, but the Reds have needed to do just that for years. They began the process last year by trading away Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., but finally completed it by trading away Edwin Encarnacion. He was the last player who obviously needed to go.

For far too long the Reds were built like a beer league softball team. As the new defensive metrics continue to develop, they reveal more and more the true value of defense. Unfortunately, the Reds have been locked into a 25-man roster that largely prevented them from being a good defensive team. The presence of Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Edwin Encarnacion gave the Reds no roster flexibility and no chance at fielding even a competent defensive club. Finally, with this trade, the Reds no longer have any significant defensive liabilities.

Completely restructuring a 25-man roster is a significant challenge and, at times, it can be painful, but this was a necessary move for the Reds and one that makes them a better team in 2010.

The Players

The Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart, and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. I still haven't seen the definitive word on whether money is changing hands in the deal, but if the Reds can get the Jays to pick up some of the contract then it looks more favorable for them.

Of course, the hue and cry in the Reds nation is that the Reds overpaid. Frankly, I just don't see it, as that train of thought is based on fans 1) overvaluing Edwin, 2) the prospects we gave up, or 3) both.

As it stands, Edwin simply has no trade value. In fact, in light of his escalating salary, he may have actually had negative value. When rumors of this trade were first raised in the press, it was clear that the Jays had no interest in Edwin. It's a reasonable inference that the real value in this deal for the Jays came from Stewart and Roenicke. Edwin went along for the ride to give the Reds some salary relief.

Offensive Impact

Unfortunately, Rolen isn't quite the offensive player he was once. A shoulder injury has robbed him of some of his power, but in 2009 he has made the adjustments necessary to be an effective offensive contributor. On the season, Rolen is hitting .316/.366/.471/.837 and while he has a .342 BABIP, his performance is not the result of luck, as he has a stellar linedrive rate of 24.9%. On his career, Rolen has a slash line of .284/.370/.500. And, while the big power numbers are unlikely to return, his overall production should be solid.

As for Edwin, his career slash line of .262/.344/.449/.793 has been characterized by massive slumps and never ending inconsistency. He has always appeared to have good upside, but is no closer to reaching it than when he first arrived.

If he can stay healthy, Rolen should be an upgrade on offense.

Defensive Impact

In 2009, Edwin has sunk to a whole new level on defense. I didn't think it was possible to get worse at the hot corner, but he has managed to do so. I really don't think most people appreciate just how detrimental his defense is to the performance of the team.

In 2009, Edwin has a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average) of -6.0 and a UZR/150 (UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games) of -23.1. His career UZR/150 is -12.2.

He doesn't fare any better under John Dewan's +/- system. In 2009, Edwin has a -10 rating, which translates into -8 Runs Saved. In a mere 362.1 innings, Edwin has cost the Reds 8 runs more than the average third baseman. That ranks him 30th among third basemen. Basically, he's dead last among 3b, despite having missed a significant amount of time with injury.

On the other hand, Rolen is still stellar with the leather. He's not quite what he used to be, but he remains a strong defensive third baseman.

In 2009, Rolen has a UZR of 4.8 and a UZR/150 of 7.9.

Under the +/- system, Rolen is a +18, which translates into 14 runs saved. So, he's been 14 runs better than the league average 3b.

Defensive metrics still aren't without flaw, but when the findings of one are supported by another, then you can feel more confident in what they reveal. If you look at these measures, then it seems fairly safe to say that the Reds are going to save roughly 28-30 runs on defense by going from Edwin to Rolen. Give or take, Edwin is ~15 below average, while Rolen is ~10 runs above average.

As a general rule of thumb, a win is considered to be worth ~10 runs. That number is arrived by looking at all the teams throughout baseball history who have scored one more run than they have allowed per game, and finding that they have a .600 win percentage. In addition, the teams that have allowed one more run than they score have a .400 win percentage, which means that each additional run leads to .100 additional wins.

If Scott Rolen can stay healthy and play something resembling a full season, then speaking strictly from a defensive point of view the Reds are improving in the Win column by ~2.5 wins.

Departing Prospects

Most of the complaints about the deal focus on the loss of Zach Stewart, and, to a lesser extent, Josh Roenicke.

Stewart really opened some eyes this year, as he proved to be much more than a raw, live-armed college closer. He made 14 starts between high-A and double-A ball before being promoted to triple-A, where he was shifted back to the bullpen to limit his innings pitched.

For high-A Sarasota, he posted a 2.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 32/8 K/BB in 42.1 innings pitched. In addition, Stewart had a stellar 2.42 GB/FB ratio. He was quickly promoted to double-A, where he kept on rolling. He posted a 1.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 31/10 K/BB ratio in 37.0 innings. He also continued to pile up the groundballs, posting a 1.96 GB/FB ratio.

As for Roenicke, I like him more than most. He's got a very live arm, keeps the ball down, and gives up few walks. He's an intriguing power arm with the potential to work high leverage innings. In the minors, he had a 2.57 ERA and 32/6 K/BB ratio in only 28.0 innings. Roenicke also induced his fair share of groundballs, as evidenced by his 1.60 GB/FB ratio.

Not only did both prospects have good numbers, but they also have plus stuff. Neither relied on smoke and mirrors to post their production, so these certainly were legitimate prospects with value.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, I think Rolen will have a very positive impact on the Reds in 2010. His defense alone will be a significant improvement and he should also provide the type of quality righthanded bat that we have lacked in 2009. When paired with Brandon Phillips, a healthy Scott Rolen should work to counterbalance the lefthanded bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Unfortunately, the Reds had to give up Roenicke and Stewart to acquire Rolen. I suspect that Roenicke had to be included to get the Jays to take Encarnacion. By including Edwin in the deal, the Reds save $4.75M in 2010, which effectively reduces Rolen's cost next year to $6.25M. Early reports are that the Jays are picking up the rest of Rolen's salary in 2009, so the monetary implications of the deal are fairly good for the Reds.

Of course, it would have been nice if the Reds could have acquired Rolen without giving up Roenicke or Stewart. However, given that the Reds already have a lot of good young talent on the team and in the rotation, it hardly seems unwise to deal away prospects for established veterans who can help at the MLB level. The purpose of the farm system is to support the MLB team, which can be done both by promoting prospects or by trading them away.

Stewart certainly exploded onto the scene in 2009, but to me his ceiling seems to be that of a #2 starter and he's no sure bet to reach that ceiling. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him top out as a #3 starter or even a closer. The idea that he's a future #1 starter or Cy Young winner based on a mere 14 start sample size seems more than a little overly optimistic. Personally, I wish we could have kept Josh Roenicke, as he is the more likely of the two to contribute at the big league level in 2010. Still, given the volatility of relievers, they are usually fairly easy to replace. However, I fear that may not quite be the case with Roenicke.

Ultimately, there is a great deal of inherent risk in pitching prospects and Stewart is more likely to end up a #3 starter or worse than he is a #1 starter. In addition, I still have a question or two about his mechanics, which may reduce his ability to handle a 200+ inning workload on an annual basis. To me, Stewart would have to develop into a legitimate #1/2 starter for me to lament his departure and I question his ability to do so.

Despite their recent struggles, the Reds seem rather close to being competitive. By adding a veteran righthanded bat and improving the defense at the hot corner, the Reds should be much improved in 2010. After the Rolen trade, the Reds seem to be an impact bat and a healthy pitching staff away from being a tough team to handle next season.

I'd be surprised if the Reds didn't extend Rolen's contract to keep him in Cincinnati beyond 2010, so if he can stay reasonably healthy over the next few years, then the Reds should be a much improved team. The Reds certainly gave up good talent in Roenicke and Stewart to do it, but a healthy Scott Rolen puts the Reds one step closer to a postseason birth.

2009 Top Prospect List: #13 Josh Roenicke, rhp

Josh Roenicke
Height 6-3, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 08/4/1982
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #17


Josh Roenicke arrived in the majors for a late September cup of coffee. One could make the case that he should have arrived earlier and worked more innings, but at least he got his feet wet. Last year, Roenicke checked in at #17, but this year he climbs the rankings. His raw stuff is as good as ever and he has proven himself against more advanced competition. He's on the cusp of the majors, waiting only for the Reds to find a fulltime spot in their MLB bullpen.

2008 SEASON

The Reds sent Roenicke to double-A Chattanooga to start the 2008 season. At double-A, Roenicke pitched well. In 22 innings, he posted a 3.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a 28/12 K/BB ratio. In his time there, he also racked up 10 saves, gaining even more valuable late inning experience.

His performance earned him a promotion to triple-A Louisville. At triple-A, he worked 39.0 innings and posted a 2.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 43/14 K/BB ratio. He only earned 3 saves, filling primarily a set-up role for Jon Adkins.

Overall, Roenicke was about as good as his numbers. At Chattanooga, his FIP was 3.46 and his BABIP was .358. At Louisville, his FIP was 2.88 and his BABIP was .330.

As with most power pitchers, Roenicke doesn't get a significant number of groundballs. Most high strikeout, power pitchers tend to work up in the strikezone, which leads to a significant number of flyballs. Overall in 2008, Roenicke posted a GB/FB ratio of 0.98, so he was basically a neutral pitcher.

Roenicke's solid season earned him a promotion to the majors, where he acquitted himself well...for a rookie. He only worked 3.0 innings and posted a 9.00 ERA, but he struck out 6 hitters, which was good for an 18.0 K/9. His fastball averaged 94.8 mph, which is even nastier when you consider the good movement on the pitch.

Here's how Roenicke's first MLB outing unfolded and his thoughts on his performance:

Roenicke struggled with his command and walked first batter Chris Young on four pitches to load the bases. Adam Dunn was hit by a 2-0 pitch that forced in the go-ahead run. Roenicke struck out Mark Reynolds to get out of the jam with no more runs crossing. The Reds were able to come back and win, 3-2, in 10 innings.

"I came in here and watched it afterwards," Roenicke said. "I felt I was yanking the ball a little bit, and obviously nerves came into play. But I wasn't missing up. I was missing down, which means I wasn't overthrowing it, which I didn't want to do. I wanted to be relaxed and focused."

You can access Roenicke's MLB draft scouting video here.


REPERTOIRE AND DELIVERY

Roenicke leans heavily on his fastball, which has good movement and rates as the best in the system, and a cutter that has so much movement that it almost looks like a splitter. Roenicke is a very good athlete with MLB bloodlines, as his father is Gary Roenicke and his uncle is Ron Roenicke. His athleticism gives him good body control throughout his delivery. In addition, he utilizes clean mechanics and does a good job incorporating his lower body in the delivery. He utilizes a high leg kick and good body coil to generate velocity. Overall, he has the clean mechanics and nasty arsenal of pitches to be a late inning reliever who can handle the high leverage innings.


FUTURE

Given his late conversion to pitching, Roenicke is already 26 years old. He has the skills to be a very effective member of an MLB bullpen, but the Reds just don't seem ready to give him a role at the MLB level. As of now, the Reds bullpen is already pretty well set, as the following pitchers likely have roles already locked up:

cl) Francisco Cordero
8th) Jared Burton
7th) David Weathers
lhmr) Billy Bray
loogy) Arthur Rhodes
mr) Mike Lincoln

As of right now, the Reds have 6 of their 7 spots in the bullpen already filled. Hopefully, Roenicke is the front runner for the final slot, but he'll be in competition with Ramon Ramirez, Carlos Fisher, Danny Ray Herrera, and perhaps even Micah Owings. It's going to be a crowded competition, but Roenicke's upside should make him the front runner.

To me, it only makes sense to give the job to Roenicke. That way, he could get his feet under him in a middle/long relief job with an eye towards working high leverage innings in 2010 and beyond. Given his filthy stuff and athleticism, Roenicke should claim a setup or closer role before too long. To me, it still seems that the Reds don't properly handle their young pitchers. Homer Bailey is one example, but I think Roenicke is another. Maybe it's just the fact that the organization is still unaccustomed to developing young pitching, but they need to start feathering Roenicke into the MLB bullpen. He's ready and the Reds could use him.

For now, Roenicke checks in at #13, but he's big league ready and unless something goes terrible wrong, he shouldn't be eligible for this list again in 2010.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 2

And, finishing up the updates on the remaining prospects on our Top 25 List.

16. Kyle Lotzkar - Lotzkar arrived on the professional scene with a bang in 2007. He pitched very well with the Gulf Coast League Reds and at Billings, posting a combined 3.10 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 36/10 K/BB ratio in 29.0 innings at the two levels. That performance was enough to send him rocketing up most prospect lists and certainly was a strong first step on his professional baseball journey. Lotzkar started out in extended spring training, but was recently sent to low-A Dayton, where he hasn't found the going quite as easy as he did last year. In 2 starts and 7.o innings, Lotzkar has posted a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and an 11/7 K/BB ratio. Like Ravin, control is the problem. Both have good stuff, but they need to harness it in order to be effective in the professional ranks. Still, as with Ravin, time is on Lotzkar's side, so he has plenty of time to harness his stuff.

17. Josh Roenicke - Roenicke has lived up to his reputation early in 2008. Roenicke exploded into the collective conscious last year by showing stellar command to go with overpowering stuff. He has proven that last year was no fluke by again showing flashes of brilliance. He started out the 2008 campaign at double-A Chattanooga and was quickly promoted to triple-A Louisville. Between the two levels, Roenicke has posted stellar numbers: 2.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 56/21 K/BB ratio. Roenicke is poised to make his MLB splash in the near future, which will make the Francisco Cordero signing look even more dubious. Regardless, the troika of Jared Burton, Josh Roenicke, and Francisco Cordero should give the Reds the nastiest bullpen since the Nasty Boys walked the earth.

18. Pedro Viola - Unfortunately, Pedro Viola's 2008 season hasn't exactly been "sweet music." Viola started at double-A Chattanooga and has had his fair share of struggles. In 31.0 innings, Pedro has an ERA of 6.10, a 1.90 WHIP, and a 36/22 K/BB ratio. Pedro will be 25 tomorrow, so it would be nice to see him get back on track, but he's still a promising arm and has a bright future. Perhaps not as bright as it seemed last year, but time will tell.

19. Brandon Waring - Waring is another player who made a noisy debut in the professional ranks, ripping the cover off the ball with the Billings Mustangs in 2007. The Reds sent Waring to Dayton where he has posted a solid line of .280/.357/.500/.857. He has hit 14 homers, demonstrating that his power is more than legitimate. However, as with Juan Francisco, it's difficult not to be worried about his strikeout rate. In 254 ABs, Waring has struck out a stunning 92 times, which works out to a strikeout every 2.8 ABs. What's even more alarming is that he is having so much difficulty making contact at low-A ball. Waring is a college ballplayer, so he shouldn't be having so much trouble at low-A Ball. The competition is only going to get tougher and it's difficult to imagine the more advanced pitchers really exploiting all the holes in Waring's swing. The power is nice, but I'm just not sure I see Waring having much success as he advances up the ladder.

20. Sean Watson - When I looked at him last year, I had concerns about Watson and his sloppy mechanics. Unfortunately, those concerns still ring true. He started out the 2008 season at high-A Sarasota, where he posted a 4.50 ERA and a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. He was bumped up to Chattanooga, where he's gotta off to a rough start, posting a 14.85 ERA in his first 6.2 innings pitched. Last year, the Reds had Watson work as a starter, but they have switched him back to the bullpen for 2008, but the results just aren't there yet. Originally, I thought Watson might become a middle reliever, but even that may be optimistic. Still, like the others, he has time to get back on track.

21. Carlos Fisher - Unlike many on this list, who started the 2008 season off with a bang, Carlos has had a quietly effective 2008 season. Like Watson, Fisher worked as a starter in 2007, but the Reds are using him exclusively as a reliever in 2008. Fisher struck me as a future reliever, so I'm not too surprised by the move, but it's good to see him take to the change like a duck to water. At Chattanooga this year, Fisher has posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a stellar 33/15 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings. In addition, Fisher has continued to demonstrate impressive groundball tendencies, posting a 1.75 GB/FB ratio. Fisher's combination of solid stuff, good control, and heavy groundball tendencies could make him a valuable middle reliever in Cincinnati. First, he'll have to continue to climb the ladder, but he's off to a quiet, productive 2008 season.

22. Sam Lecure - Lecure is the type of pitcher that I like, so I'm rooting for him to take it to the next level. He has actually been fairly solid in 2008, posting a 3.75, 1.33 WHIP, and a rather impressive 76/37 K/BB ratio for Chattanooga. However, I still question whether he has enough stuff to be successful at the MLB level. I'd love to say yes, but I just don't think he does. In addition, his flyball tendencies (0.67 GB/FB in 2008) don't bode well for any future he may have in Great American Ballpark. Still, I'll continue to root Lecure on, but unfortunately I'm not all that optimistic about his chances.

23. Justin Turner - Turner is the type of player who constantly exceeds expectations and wrings every last drop of production out of his rather limited skills. Sabermetricians don't like him, but scouts swear that he'll carve out an MLB career. It's hard not to like someone who gets the absolute best out of his gifts, but Turner is looking like a poor bet to have much of an MLB career. Perhaps he can latch on as a utility infielder, but his 2008 line at Chattanooga of .232/.320/.317/.637 hardly inspires confidence.

24. Justin Reed - I am higher on Reed than most, as I think he's got the skills necessary to be a top of the order hitter and a solid defensive player. Reed didn't focus solely on baseball until he was drafted by the Reds, rather he split his time between football and baseball. Accordingly, he's still a bit behind the development curve, but he has the gifts to catch up in a hurry if all breaks right. The Reds sent Reed to Dayton, where he has posted a respectable line of .259/.337/.415/.752. He has also swiped 15 out of 19 bases he has attempted to steal. Reed still needs to polish his game and learn the nuances of baseball. While he does seem to be making progress, his contact rate needs improvement. On the season, he is striking out every 2.8 ABs. Clearly, that's not acceptable for someone with his limited power, so he'll need to improve that aspect of his game. Reed has shown improvement, but needs to continue to work, work, work on his skills. His athletic ability could allow him to take a big step forward at some point in his development, but unfortunately he is just as likely to never have the light come on.

25. Tyler Pelland - Pelland has really struggled in 2008, doing little to earn the confidence of the front office. Pelland is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues, but with his performance he may as well be playing for the Long Islands Ducks of the Independent League. In 28.2 innings, Pelland has posted a 33/20 K/BB ratio and an uninspiring 5.65 ERA. Pelland is continuing to show the inconsistency that has plagued him. He's got swing-and-missing stuff, but just can't get command of it with any regularity. So, once again, the Reds will have to wait on Pelland, whose career is stalling at triple-A Louisville.

Other Notables - Obviously, the big story here is Daryl Thompson, whose performance got him on the fast track to the big leagues, where he held his own against the Yankees. Thompson's stuff came all the way back after surgery for a torn labrum and he has established himself as one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. He has demonstrated a very strong combination of power and control. Time will tell just how high his ceiling will be, but for now he appears to be at least a future middle of the rotation pitcher. Paul Janish got the call by default, after every shortstop in the entire city of Cincinnati got injured (and believe me, Dusty tried them all before finally turning to Janish). Unfortunately, Paul is still struggling with the bat, but he does intrigue me. If he can hit a meager .265, then his on base skills and stellar defense will make him a viable shortstop at the MLB level. While Chris Dickerson impressed Dusty during spring training, his offense continues to fall short. At AAA, he is producing only at a .255/.357/.388 clip. Time is rapidly running out for Chris. Zach Cozart is down at Dayton, where he is showing surprising power, tallying 8 homeruns and a stellar .459 SLG%. His glove is still solid, so he'll go as far as his bat will take him. Finally, Craig Tatum has really struggled in 2008, posting a disturbing line of .229/.300/.351. He is a borderline prospect, but the Reds are still shallow at catcher, so he'll continue to get a look.

Top Prospect List: #17 Josh Roenicke, RHP

Jose Roenicke is an "interesting" prospect in just about every sense of the word. He's got very good stuff and an MLB pedigree, but he's older and a bit less polished than one would hope.

Roenicke is 6'3", 195 lbs, bats right, and throws right. He's currently 25 years old, but will be 26 in August of next year.

DRAFT STATUS AND COLLEGE BALL

Roenicke suffered from a healthy dose of career confusion at UCLA. Despite being the son of Gary Roenicke and nephew of Ron Roenicke, two former major league outfielders, Josh originally went to UCLA to be a wide receiver on the football team. However, those plans were scrapped after he failed to catch a pass in his first two seasons. After that, Roenicke focused strictly on baseball.

However, even that decision had its ups and downs. Roenicke played primarily in the outfield, where his bat was, in a word, underwhelming. In his four seasons with the UCLA, Roenicke posted an OPS of .500 in 2003, a .684 in 2004, a .713 in 2005, and a .574 in 2006. For his college career, Roenicke managed only 1 homerun.

Clearly, Roenicke didn't have the bat to follow in the footsteps of his father and uncle. However, interestingly enough, Roenicke also toed the rubber for a whopping 15.1 innings in his career at UCLA. In that span, he posted a 2.94 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 14/9 K/BB ratio.

It's a credit to the Reds scouting department that they gleaned enough information from those 15.1 innings to see MLB pitching potential in Roenicke. However they managed to do it, the Reds saw enough out of Roenicke to make him the 294th overall pick in the 10th Round of the 2006 draft.

REPERTOIRE

Roenicke features a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range, but he can spin it up to 97-98 on occasion. In addition, his fastball has good movement on it, which only increases its effectiveness. For his secondary offering, Roenicke relies on a 87-89 mph cutter that has tremendous movement, so much so that at times it appears to be a sinker or a slider.

While he lacks a quality third pitch, he likely won't need one, as he is being used primarily as a reliever. While most organizations use their best pitching prospects as starters in the minors to ensure that they get regular, consistent work on their games, it's hard to argue with the Reds decision to leave Roenicke in the bullpen. Given his advanced age and lack of polish, allowing him to focus on relief work seems like a good strategy.

Roenicke is an excellent athlete, but he also has the mentality you need for a closer. He doesn't fear failure and isn't afraid to challenge hitters, which is what you need out of a closer. However, as to be expected from someone who recently converted to pitching full-time, Roenicke needs to improve his control and command. In addition, he needs to improve his understanding of sequencing pitches. Fortunately, these types of problems can all be improved upon with more experience and instruction.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Gulf Coast League Reds

Roenicke debuted in 2006 with the Gulf Coast League Reds, where he made quick work of the competition in his 7.2 innings of work. Roenicke posted a 1.17 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP, a BB/9 of 3.52, and a K/9 of 10.57.

Billings

That performance earned him a promotion to Rookie League Billings of the Pioneer League. At Billings, Roenicke had an uneven season. In 15.2 innings, Roenicke posted a massive 13.79 K/9, but an unimpressive 6.89 BB/9. Again, illustrating his combination of tremendous stuff and lack of polish. Not surprisingly given those ratios, he posted a 6.32 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.

Heading into the offseason, Roenicke didn't really look like a serious prospect. However, whatever he did in the offseason really paid off, as he took a big step forward in the 2007 season. Interestingly enough, the Reds were impressed enough to have him skip low-A Dayton and start him out at High-A Sarasota to begin 2007.

Sarasota

In Sarasota, Roenicke posted a very impressive 13.34 K/9 and managed to pair it with a respectable 4.88 BB/9. By cutting his walk rate, Roenicke managed to improve his ERA and WHIP from his time at Billings, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Granted, the Florida State League can be tough on hitters, but this was an impressive season none the less, one which earned him a promotion all the way to Double-A Chattanooga.

Chattanooga

At Double-A, Roenicke cemented his status as a prospect to watch. Despite the fact that making the jump to Double-A is widely considered the most difficult leap to make in the minors, Roenicke responded with his most impressive work.

At Chattanooga, Roenicke worked in 19.0 innings, in which he posted a 0.95 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP, 2.84 BB/9, and a 7.11 K/9. While the strikeout rate dropped against more advanced competition, his improved control is impressive, and I doubt many would complain about a 15/6 K/BB ratio in 19 innings of work.

In 70 career professional innings, Roenicke has an 11.44 K/9, a 4.63 BB/9, and perhaps most impressively has allowed only 2 homeruns.

Obviously, his cutter with the sinking action allows him to generate a lot of groundball outs, which is evidenced by his groundball percentage, which was 62% in 2006 in the GCL, 64% in 2007 at Sarasota, and a 46% at Chattanooga. Those rates are music to the ears of Reds fans, as that's exactly what you need to succeed in Great American Ballpark.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Roenicke has nice, clean mechanics, which is a bit surprising considering his lack of experience on the mound.

He has good, clean arm action with over the top arm slot. He has good tempo throughout the motion and maintains good balance throughout, which is a testament to his impressive athleticism. He never seems to lose control of his body or find himself off-balance in his motion. Roenicke pitches primarily out of the stretch, which helps simplify things for him. On his leg kick, he brings his "glove-side" (GS) leg up parallel with the ground.

One thing I like about Roenicke's mechanics, much like those of Josh Ravin, is that he maintains good body control on his follow through. Both Roenicke and Ravin throw hard, but neither has much effort to their deliveries. Each has a follow-through that is under control, which leaves them well-balanced and in a good fielding position. The ability to maintain this kind of body control would seem to reduce the chance of injury, as they can hit top velocity without having to use so much effort that their form breaks down, unlike fellow Reds prospect Kyle Lotzkar.

The only slight problem that I see in his mechanics is that on occasion he may open his shoulders too soon. He has a slight tendency to open his GS side shoulder too soon, which results in his pitching arm lagging behind and being out of position. He has to speed up his pitching arm to catch up to the rotational speed of his body. Generally speaking, a pitcher's shoulders should not begin to rotate until the GS foot has landed. When the GS lands, it should naturally trigger the shoulder rotation.

By opening the GS side shoulder a bit early, he may be putting additional strain on the pitching shoulder because his pitching arm has not had enough time to get into proper throwing position. Since the pitching arm is not in position, it must get pulled back into position by the rotational speed of his shoulders which can create additional strain on the arm. It's possible that this may increase his chances of an injury to his throwing shoulder, but even worst case that increase would be slight and best case it isn't anything to worry about at all. Not to mention, it doesn't happen on every pitch, so he might just fix the problem altogether in the minor leagues.

Overall, Roenicke has clean, efficient mechanics that bode well for his health and production.

You can access the link to his MLB scouting draft video here.

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

It's an interesting phenomena, but it's one that can't be overlooked. An MLB baseball lineage counts. If you have former MLB baseball players in the family, then you have an advantage over those who don't. Not only does it get your name on the scouting radar, but the athletic skills are in the genes. The Boones, Bells, Bonds, and now the Roenickes probably wouldn't disagree.

Baseball America is certainly sold on Roenicke, who jumped all the way up to #9 on their list, after not only failing to be ranked in the top 30 in 2006, but not even being listed on the Baseball America depth chart. That's just how far and fast he has risen up the ranks in 2007.

Personally, I don't tend to rate relievers as high as other prospects. Given the volatility of relievers and their limited playing time in which to make an impact (~65-85 innings), I tend to rate relievers a bit lower. However, Roenicke is clearly the best in the farm system and another year like 2007 will result in him moving even higher on the list. Both his control (aka: ability to throw strikes) and command (ability to locate those strikes in the zone) improved in 2007, which is the key to unlocking his MLB potential.

Taking into account his age, polish, upside, stuff, and the big step forward he took in 2007, Josh Roenicke lands at #17 on the list. Sometimes a big jump in performance in one year is accompanied by a small step backward the following year. It'll be very interesting to see if Roenicke can maintain his success against the advanced competition and 2008 will reveal much about Roenicke's future career.