2009 Top Prospect List: #25 Alexis Oliveras

Alexis Oliveras
Height 6-0, Weight 180, B/T: L/R, DOB: 03/29/1989
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: "Other Notables"

At this point in his career, Alexis Oliveras is still more about projection than production. However, I find him to be a much more interesting prospect than those older prospects who have developed to the point that they have reached far lower ceilings. It's the age old question, when valuing prospects how do you balance polish/certainty vs. projection/upside? For this list, when it is at issue, I'm putting more weight on upside than polish.

Outfielders like Chris Heisey, Sean Henry, and Shaun Cumberland are more polished and are further along in the development time-line than Oliveras. However, none of that trio projects as anything more than a 4th outfielder at the MLB level. At this point, Oliveras is much less polished and has a long way to travel on the development time-line, but if he does then he has a greater chance to be an impact player than the players with the lower ceilings.


PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Oliveras was drafted by the Reds in the 9th round of the 2007 draft out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Guaynabo, P.R. He was drafted at the age of 18. He was very raw and the Reds sent him to the Gulf Coast League, where he appeared completely overwhelmed. He posted a line of .191/.240/.253 in 47 games and 162 ABs. Clearly, he was raw and not ready for the professional game.

In 2008, the Reds again sent Oliveras back to the Gulf Coast League to repeat the level. His second go around went much better than the first. He posted a line of .279/.345/.383/.728 in 39 games and 154 ABs on the season. The .728 OPS doesn't look all that impressive, but the Gulf Coast League OPS was only .687 and his team's overall OPS was only .654, so he was well above average on the season.

Oliveras was white-hot to start the season, posting a line of .400/.526/.400 in 19 plate appearances in June. In 64 plate appearances in July, he posted a line of .351/.422/.509. Unfortunately, he posted a weak .208/.256/.273 line in 82 plate appearances in August to finish out the season.

While his overall line was solid, there are a few redflags to his 2008 season. On the year, he hit line drives at a 10% clip and groundballs at a 63% clip. Given the age of the prospects in the GCL, I suspect that this is not uncommon. Clearly, Oliveras needs to get a bit more loft on the ball and increase his linedrive rate. In addition, he needs to add some strength to allow him to drive the ball with greater authority. However, his walk rate improved from 5.6% in 2007 to 8.5% in 2008.

Oliveras spent the majority of his time in centerfield, logging 20 games there, but also spent 15 games in rightfield. He logged 2 assists in center and 2 in right. He seems to be a competent outfielder, but his value would jump if he can stay in center, as he may not develop the bat to be a starting corner outfielder. In fact, his professional career may hinge on his ability to stick in center, though it'll depend on how well his bat develops.

Once again Alexis failed to put together a quality full season of play, but he did take a significant step forward. Not to mention, I can't help but be encouraged by his swing, which seems to be one that can make him a viable prospect.

PHYSICAL TOOLS

While Oliveras certainly doesn't possess his tools or raw ability, his body type does remind me of Cameron Maybin. Maybin is a bit taller, but both are high waisted and have long legs. In addition, each seems to have a bit of electricity in their legs that makes them uneasy just standing around, seeming to prefer constant motion. Maybe it's an abundance of fast twitch muscle fibers or just too much sugar in their diet, but whatever it is they seem to have a bit more bounce in their step than other prospects.

Unfortunately, Oliveras still isn't very strong, but he has an average arm and above average speed. Hopefully, he'll continue to add muscle as he matures, as he'll need it to avoid being overpowered by more advanced competition.

SWING MECHANICS

Oliveras has a smooth left-handed swing, which is what first caught my eye.

He utilizes a significantly wider than shoulder width stance, which prevents him from using any kind of stride at the plate. In addition, he hits out of a bit of crouch, which looks a bit unusual given the wide stance that he employees. Like most hitters who utilize the wide stance, he doesn't use a stride. The width of the stance results in a hitter being limited to simply lifting his front foot up and setting it right back down to trigger his weight transfer. However, when Oliveras sets the front foot back down, he has the tendency to open it up. When he first gets into his hitting stance, his toe is pointed directly towards homeplate, but when he sets the foot back down after his stride, the toe is often pointed more towards third base than it was before the stride. This new front foot position can lead to Oliveras opening his hips too soon, which bleeds power from the swing. If the hips fire too soon, then it becomes more of an arm swing, which results in the hitter rolling over the ball and generates a lot of weak groundballs to the right side of the infield (which helps explain his high groundball %).

While I usually don't mind a wider stance and a negligible stride (it has worked wonders for both Joe DiMaggio and Albert Pujols), I'd actually like to see Oliveras shorten up his stance and take a longer stride at the plate. I think that would help him drive the ball a bit better and prevent him from firing the hips too soon. As it stands now, he isn't getting enough line-drives, instead hitting the ball on the ground a high percentage of the time.

Oliveras employees a high hand position, as he takes his stance with his hands up by his left ear. This isn't uncommon and is a pre-pitch hand position shared by fellow prospect Yonder Alonso. As the pitch is delivered, Oliveras lifts his front foot to begin his weight transfer and brings his hands down and back to shoulder level, which puts them into a good hitting position. Overall, Oliveras gets into good hitting position when the pitch is delivered.

After the swing passes through the hitting zone he takes his top hand off the bat, but he has a much shorter follow-through than is typical for one handed finishers. He doesn't release the bat on the follow through and let it come all the way around in typical fashion, but rather restricts its movement at the finish of the swing. It more resembles the Fred McGriff follow-through than the classic Will Clark follow-through. While this is typically just an aesthetic difference, sometimes cutting the swing short can result in a loss of power. If the hitter is restricting the swing too soon, then he may be limiting his shoulder rotation. If the hitter isn't getting good shoulder rotation, then the bat may actually be decelerating at the point of contact, which would obviously reduce the power generated. Right now, Oliveras seems to get sufficient shoulder rotation, so it's not likely a problem, though I wouldn't mind seeing him "let the swing go" a bit more, as it might help him tap into a bit more power as he climbs the ladder. He'll never be a power hitter, but he'll need a bit more pop if he is going to develop into a prospect of note.

You can see his scouting video here.

CONCLUSION

While Oliveras still has a LONG way to go on the road to the majors and plenty of time to take a wrong turn, for now he checks in at #25. Last year he was under the "Other Notables" and he took enough of a step forward for me to reward him with the last slot on the big list. Once again, Alexis showed JUST enough to pique my interest. He may ultimately never pan out, but for now he's more interesting to me than the Chris Heisey types who project as nothing more than 4th outfielders and, besides, we've heard enough about those guys already. Still, he's admittedly a bit of a long shot to make it to the majors and have a productive MLB career. Even so, Oliveras gets the nod for the 25th slot, but he'll have to show something more in 2009 to warrant inclusion on the 2010 list.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 2

And, finishing up the updates on the remaining prospects on our Top 25 List.

16. Kyle Lotzkar - Lotzkar arrived on the professional scene with a bang in 2007. He pitched very well with the Gulf Coast League Reds and at Billings, posting a combined 3.10 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 36/10 K/BB ratio in 29.0 innings at the two levels. That performance was enough to send him rocketing up most prospect lists and certainly was a strong first step on his professional baseball journey. Lotzkar started out in extended spring training, but was recently sent to low-A Dayton, where he hasn't found the going quite as easy as he did last year. In 2 starts and 7.o innings, Lotzkar has posted a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and an 11/7 K/BB ratio. Like Ravin, control is the problem. Both have good stuff, but they need to harness it in order to be effective in the professional ranks. Still, as with Ravin, time is on Lotzkar's side, so he has plenty of time to harness his stuff.

17. Josh Roenicke - Roenicke has lived up to his reputation early in 2008. Roenicke exploded into the collective conscious last year by showing stellar command to go with overpowering stuff. He has proven that last year was no fluke by again showing flashes of brilliance. He started out the 2008 campaign at double-A Chattanooga and was quickly promoted to triple-A Louisville. Between the two levels, Roenicke has posted stellar numbers: 2.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 56/21 K/BB ratio. Roenicke is poised to make his MLB splash in the near future, which will make the Francisco Cordero signing look even more dubious. Regardless, the troika of Jared Burton, Josh Roenicke, and Francisco Cordero should give the Reds the nastiest bullpen since the Nasty Boys walked the earth.

18. Pedro Viola - Unfortunately, Pedro Viola's 2008 season hasn't exactly been "sweet music." Viola started at double-A Chattanooga and has had his fair share of struggles. In 31.0 innings, Pedro has an ERA of 6.10, a 1.90 WHIP, and a 36/22 K/BB ratio. Pedro will be 25 tomorrow, so it would be nice to see him get back on track, but he's still a promising arm and has a bright future. Perhaps not as bright as it seemed last year, but time will tell.

19. Brandon Waring - Waring is another player who made a noisy debut in the professional ranks, ripping the cover off the ball with the Billings Mustangs in 2007. The Reds sent Waring to Dayton where he has posted a solid line of .280/.357/.500/.857. He has hit 14 homers, demonstrating that his power is more than legitimate. However, as with Juan Francisco, it's difficult not to be worried about his strikeout rate. In 254 ABs, Waring has struck out a stunning 92 times, which works out to a strikeout every 2.8 ABs. What's even more alarming is that he is having so much difficulty making contact at low-A ball. Waring is a college ballplayer, so he shouldn't be having so much trouble at low-A Ball. The competition is only going to get tougher and it's difficult to imagine the more advanced pitchers really exploiting all the holes in Waring's swing. The power is nice, but I'm just not sure I see Waring having much success as he advances up the ladder.

20. Sean Watson - When I looked at him last year, I had concerns about Watson and his sloppy mechanics. Unfortunately, those concerns still ring true. He started out the 2008 season at high-A Sarasota, where he posted a 4.50 ERA and a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. He was bumped up to Chattanooga, where he's gotta off to a rough start, posting a 14.85 ERA in his first 6.2 innings pitched. Last year, the Reds had Watson work as a starter, but they have switched him back to the bullpen for 2008, but the results just aren't there yet. Originally, I thought Watson might become a middle reliever, but even that may be optimistic. Still, like the others, he has time to get back on track.

21. Carlos Fisher - Unlike many on this list, who started the 2008 season off with a bang, Carlos has had a quietly effective 2008 season. Like Watson, Fisher worked as a starter in 2007, but the Reds are using him exclusively as a reliever in 2008. Fisher struck me as a future reliever, so I'm not too surprised by the move, but it's good to see him take to the change like a duck to water. At Chattanooga this year, Fisher has posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a stellar 33/15 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings. In addition, Fisher has continued to demonstrate impressive groundball tendencies, posting a 1.75 GB/FB ratio. Fisher's combination of solid stuff, good control, and heavy groundball tendencies could make him a valuable middle reliever in Cincinnati. First, he'll have to continue to climb the ladder, but he's off to a quiet, productive 2008 season.

22. Sam Lecure - Lecure is the type of pitcher that I like, so I'm rooting for him to take it to the next level. He has actually been fairly solid in 2008, posting a 3.75, 1.33 WHIP, and a rather impressive 76/37 K/BB ratio for Chattanooga. However, I still question whether he has enough stuff to be successful at the MLB level. I'd love to say yes, but I just don't think he does. In addition, his flyball tendencies (0.67 GB/FB in 2008) don't bode well for any future he may have in Great American Ballpark. Still, I'll continue to root Lecure on, but unfortunately I'm not all that optimistic about his chances.

23. Justin Turner - Turner is the type of player who constantly exceeds expectations and wrings every last drop of production out of his rather limited skills. Sabermetricians don't like him, but scouts swear that he'll carve out an MLB career. It's hard not to like someone who gets the absolute best out of his gifts, but Turner is looking like a poor bet to have much of an MLB career. Perhaps he can latch on as a utility infielder, but his 2008 line at Chattanooga of .232/.320/.317/.637 hardly inspires confidence.

24. Justin Reed - I am higher on Reed than most, as I think he's got the skills necessary to be a top of the order hitter and a solid defensive player. Reed didn't focus solely on baseball until he was drafted by the Reds, rather he split his time between football and baseball. Accordingly, he's still a bit behind the development curve, but he has the gifts to catch up in a hurry if all breaks right. The Reds sent Reed to Dayton, where he has posted a respectable line of .259/.337/.415/.752. He has also swiped 15 out of 19 bases he has attempted to steal. Reed still needs to polish his game and learn the nuances of baseball. While he does seem to be making progress, his contact rate needs improvement. On the season, he is striking out every 2.8 ABs. Clearly, that's not acceptable for someone with his limited power, so he'll need to improve that aspect of his game. Reed has shown improvement, but needs to continue to work, work, work on his skills. His athletic ability could allow him to take a big step forward at some point in his development, but unfortunately he is just as likely to never have the light come on.

25. Tyler Pelland - Pelland has really struggled in 2008, doing little to earn the confidence of the front office. Pelland is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues, but with his performance he may as well be playing for the Long Islands Ducks of the Independent League. In 28.2 innings, Pelland has posted a 33/20 K/BB ratio and an uninspiring 5.65 ERA. Pelland is continuing to show the inconsistency that has plagued him. He's got swing-and-missing stuff, but just can't get command of it with any regularity. So, once again, the Reds will have to wait on Pelland, whose career is stalling at triple-A Louisville.

Other Notables - Obviously, the big story here is Daryl Thompson, whose performance got him on the fast track to the big leagues, where he held his own against the Yankees. Thompson's stuff came all the way back after surgery for a torn labrum and he has established himself as one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. He has demonstrated a very strong combination of power and control. Time will tell just how high his ceiling will be, but for now he appears to be at least a future middle of the rotation pitcher. Paul Janish got the call by default, after every shortstop in the entire city of Cincinnati got injured (and believe me, Dusty tried them all before finally turning to Janish). Unfortunately, Paul is still struggling with the bat, but he does intrigue me. If he can hit a meager .265, then his on base skills and stellar defense will make him a viable shortstop at the MLB level. While Chris Dickerson impressed Dusty during spring training, his offense continues to fall short. At AAA, he is producing only at a .255/.357/.388 clip. Time is rapidly running out for Chris. Zach Cozart is down at Dayton, where he is showing surprising power, tallying 8 homeruns and a stellar .459 SLG%. His glove is still solid, so he'll go as far as his bat will take him. Finally, Craig Tatum has really struggled in 2008, posting a disturbing line of .229/.300/.351. He is a borderline prospect, but the Reds are still shallow at catcher, so he'll continue to get a look.

Top Prospect List: Notables

I thought I'd take a quick look at and post some thoughts on some of the Reds prospects who just missed the cut for the top 25. These guys missed for a combination of reasons, which include age, injuries, lack of projection, or lack of stuff. However, the jury is still out, so they may yet step up and make an impact on the fortunes of the Cincinnati Reds professional baseball club.

Zack Cozart - ss

Cozart was widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in college when the Reds drafted him out of Mississippi with their 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft. Unfortunately, his bat lags well behind his glove.

Cozart has a strong, accurate arm, though he does throw from a lower arm slot than you traditionally see out of a shortstop. Cozart has been compared to Adam Everett, which immediately catches my eye, as I have tremendous appreciation for the defensive skills of Everett. However, at this point, it's not realistic to put Cozart in that class defensively. Cozart has good, soft hands, but his range is only considered a tick above average. At this point, Cozart makes all the plays that he can get his hands on, but ultimately he may not get to enough balls to make him an elite defensive shortstop.

At the plate, Cozart has a lot of work to do. He is very much an upper body hitter, which limits his power and ability to drive the ball with authority. Despite his hitting approach, Cozart still has trouble making consistent contact. He struck out 36 times in 184 ABs at low-A Dayton. The Reds will be patient with Cozart, but after posting a .239/.288/.332/.620 line, it's clear that Cozart has a long road to the majors.


Paul Janish - ss

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like Janish is ever going to hit enough to earn a fulltime job. Janish is a very good defensive shortstop and has a rocket for an arm, but his bat continues to hold him back. Given his defensive prowess, Janish wouldn't need to hit much to justify a job, but even with the bar set so low, Janish has yet to vault over it.

Interestingly enough, Baseball America just named Paul Janish the most disciplined hitter in the Reds system. I've liked Janish since watching him play in the College World Series for Rice. He made a couple of spectacular plays at shortstop and displayed the canon for an arm on several occasions. Given his plus glove, plus arm, and good plate discipline, Janish has the right tools to be of use. In fact, if he could hit just .265 at the big league level, he'd likely have a .350-.360 OBP, which when added to his defense would make him an attractive option at shortstop. Unfortunately, at 25 years old there just isn't much projection left in Janish, so regrettably he's about as good as he's going to get.


Chris Dickerson - of

Dickerson might well be the best athlete in the Reds system. Unfortunately, great athleticism doesn't always translate into great baseball skills. To be successful, baseball requires a more nuanced skillset, one which doesn't always surrender to tremendous athleticism.

Dickerson joins Drew Stubbs as the best defensive outfielders in the system. In addition, he's got very good speed and on good on base skills. Unfortunately, Dickerson cannot make consistent contact. His strikeout rate remains far too high, as he struck out 162 times in just 468 ABs. If Dickerson can make consistent contact, then his batting average, on base percentage, and top flight defense will both be more than enough to earn him a starting centerfielder job in major league baseball.

However, Dickerson still doesn't make enough contact to post an acceptable batting average, so he remains stuck at the upper levels of the minors. He'll be 26 at the beginning of the season, so time isn't on his side any more.


Alexis Oliveras - of

Oliveras is a bit of a mystery man. The Reds nabbed him with the 289th pick of the 2007 draft. Oliveras went to the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy High School, stands 6'0", bats left, and throws right.

His performance in 2007 (.191/.240/.253/.493) clearly indicates that he was over-matched in his 162 ABs in the Gulf Coast League. However, there is a glimmer of hope in his scouting video. He's got a smooth lefthanded swing. Unfortunately, he needs to make some serious adjustments. He hits from a very wide stance and has a rather long swing. His bat speed isn't overly impressive, so he'll definitely need to both tighten and shorten up his swing in order to have any success against more advanced pitching.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but there's just enough in his scouting video (see it here) to put him on my radar. However, at this point, he's a long shot and has a lot of work to do to even become a legitimate prospect. Time is on his side, but he'll need to show something in 2008 to stay in the Reds plans.


Daryl Thompson - RHP

Thompson is an interesting case. If you looked strictly at his stats, Thompson did very well in 2007. He posted a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/33 K/BB ratio between low-A Dayton and high-A Sarasota. However, all reports indicate that Thompson's stuff has not returned and his velocity is down significantly from where it was before his injury problems. So, his performance may have been nothing more than Thompson dominating significantly less advanced competition with below average stuff. It'll be interesting to see how Thompson does in 2008, but he'll need his best stuff to have success against more advanced competition.


Craig Tatum - C

Tatum is an interesting prospect. He was selected by the Reds in the 3rd Round of the 2004 draft out of Mississippi State University. He immediately fell off the radar when he required Tommy John surgery in 2005.

Tatum hits with a wide stance and utilizes a leg kick as a timing mechanism. As is to be expected with a leg kick as a timing mechanism, Tatum is susceptible to quality offspeed pitches, as he gets out on his front foot too early. Tatum has a fairly simple, uncomplicated swing, which should allow him to make consistent contact and hit for a solid average. However, his swing doesn't involve a lot of lower body or explosive hip action, so his power potential is very limited.

On defense, Tatum has always been solid. He's got soft hands, good lateral movement behind the plate, and a strong arm even after Tommy John Surgery. Ultimately, there is always room in the Majors for quality defensive catchers, but Tatum's bat makes it difficult to imagine him being much more than a potential backup.

Baseball America slots him in at #17 on the Reds top 30 prospect list, but that seems a bit high for a player with a career line of .259/.329/.397/.726.

You can see Tatum at the plate in his MLB Draft Scouting video here.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Personally, I find it remarkable that the Reds farm system has come so far, so fast. It hasn't been easy, but the organization's dedication to improved scouting, player development, and international scouting has really paid off. The Reds not only have improved the chances that their draft picks will pan out, but they also improved those odds by bringing in quality prospect from their international academies.

Prospects are inherently risky, so many of them will never pan out. However, the international academies greatly increase the flow of talent headed for the majors. The Reds no longer have to rely solely on the select few impact prospects they get in the amateur draft each year, but rather double that number by bringing in talent with international free agents.

The greater the number of quality prospects, the greater the number of homegrown Major League players. All in all, things are looking very bright for the Reds farm system.