2009 Top Prospect List: #11 Daryl Thompson, rhp

Daryl Thompson
Height 6-0, Weight 180, B/T: R/R, DOB: 11/2/1985
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: Other Notables

Daryl Thompson may well have had the best 2008 minor league season that no one heard about. I'm not sure why, but Thompson seemed to get very little publicity for his stellar performance. Regardless of the lack of ink, Thompson's performance certainly put him back on the Reds' radar.

2008 SEASON

Thompson spent time at four different minor league stops and got a cup of coffee in majors in 2008 and overall performed exceptionally well. Thompson tossed 4.0 uninspiring innings for the Gulf Coast League and 15.2 innings of disappointing baseball for high-A Sarasota before really taking off.

Thompson worked 61.1 dominant innings for double-A Chattanooga. He posted a 1.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 56/14 K/BB ratio. And, he really was about that good, as evidenced by his component stats, 2.56 FIP and .271 BABIP. It really was a stellar performance and it earned him another promotion.

At triple-A Louisville Thompson continued his stellar performance. He worked 45.2 innings posting a 2.76 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 33/9 K/BB ratio. Again, his components were solid, as he posted a 3.76 FIP and .267 BABIP.

Overall, Thompson's 2008 season saw him post a 2.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 99/30 K/BB ratio. His GB/FB ratio was only 1.01, so has only neutral tendencies. Even so, that level of performance makes him the front runner for minor league pitcher of the year in the Reds organization. Not surprisingly, Thompson did get in some time at the major league level.

Unfortunately, Thompson's MLB time did not go quite as smoothly. Thompson made three starts in late June and early July. His first start came against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, which is a mighty tall order for a rookie. Even so, Thompson acquitted himself well, working 5.0 innings giving up 0 runs, 4 hits, 4 walks, and tallying 2 strikeouts. He also provided one of the more memorable moments in a lost season. In the 2nd inning, Thompson gave up a leadoff double to Alex Rodriguez. He followed up on that by giving up a single to Hideki Matsui, which advanced A-Rod to third. Thompson walked Jason Giambi to load up the bases with no outs.

Not an easy spot for a rookie making his MLB debut, but Thompson proved up to the challenge. He proceeded to strikeout Jorge Posada for the first out. He then got the ever-aggressive Robinson Cano to foul out on a popfly to Paul Bako for out number 2. Thompson then faced Melky Cabrera as the final obstacle to getting out of trouble. He blew an inside fastball by Melky for the strikeout to close out the inning. Thompson really rose to the occasion and demonstrated some true intestinal fortitude. When Thompson blew the final fastball past Melky Cabrera, Dusty Baker basically leapt off his seat in excitement. After working through the trouble, Thompson polished off a very strong MLB debut, throwing 96 pitches and giving up no runs to the Yankee juggernaught.

Unfortunately, Thompson's next two starts didn't go quite so well, as Thompson finished up with an MLB line of 6.91 ERA, 1.89, and a 6/7 K/BB ratio in 14.3 innings. His fastball averaged 91.8 mph and his changeup clocked in at 81.2 mph. During his stint in the majors, he relied mostly on the straight stuff, throwing 64.2% fastballs and 25.3% changeups. He used his slider only 6.0% of the time and his curveball 4.6% of the time.


MECHANICS

Anyone who has seen Daryl Thompson pitch knows that his mechanics almost defy description, but I'll give it a workman like effort.










One of the first things that jump out at me about Thompson is "the crouch." In the first photo, you can see that he bends at the waist when driving off the rubber, which is just the first of many unusual aspects of his mechanics.












In these two photos, you can see Thompson on the left and Tim Lincecum on the right. Each is at a similar point in his delivery and the comparison I want to make is the position of the pitching hand. Thompson's hand is on top of the ball and he uses an unorthodox wrist cock, which is not the norm in pitching. On a positive note, during his time at the MLB level Thompson appeared to have reduced his wrist cock. As for Lincecum, his hand is on the side of the ball (but it almost appears to be under the ball) and he has no wrist cock. Lincecum's arm is basically a "L", while Thompson's arm looks like the Cincinnati Reds wishbone "C". On the plus side, you can see that both Lincecum and Thompson are keeping their elbows below shoulder level.











The next unusual aspect of Thompson's mechanics is the ball position. Most pitchers are taught to "show" the ball to second base, but the majority of MLB pitchers actually show the ball to third base. In the far left photo, you can see Greg Maddux "showing" the ball to third base. In the far right photo, you can see Lincecum "showing" the ball to second base. In the middle photo, you can see that Thompson is basically "showing" the ball to the ground, which is not recommended. Also, you can see that Maddux and Lincecum have their arms in a vertical position, while Thompson's arm is almost horizontal.












As for his arm action, you can see from the photo on the left that Thompson throws from a low three-quarter arm slot. Also, in the photo on the left, you can see that Thompson uses a fairly short stride. As a result of his shorter stride, Thompson's momentum carries his right leg well past his plant foot and he seems to basically walk towards homeplate on his follow-through. In the photo on the right, you can see that Thompson somewhat pulls his head towards first base during his delivery, which is due in part to his lower arm slot.

Obviously, Thompson has very unorthodox mechanics, but he certainly made them work in 2008. Even so, it's not difficult to see why he suffered a torn labrum earlier in his career, especially when you consider that he seems to be the epitome of a max effort pitcher. As of now, it's almost impossible to know what to make of him, both from a performance and injury risk point of view.

FUTURE

Thompson exploded back onto the scene in 2008. Given that he performed well on several different levels, his emergence is likely for real. Last year, Thompson missed out on the top 25 because I had concerns about his velocity. However, he dispelled those concerns quickly and ascended rapidly up the ladder. For 2009, Thompson will compete for the 5th spot in the MLB rotation. If he misses out, then he'll head back to triple-A Louisville despite not really needing any more development time. Thompson's ceiling seems to be that of a #4 starter, so for now he checks in at #11 on the list.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 2

And, finishing up the updates on the remaining prospects on our Top 25 List.

16. Kyle Lotzkar - Lotzkar arrived on the professional scene with a bang in 2007. He pitched very well with the Gulf Coast League Reds and at Billings, posting a combined 3.10 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 36/10 K/BB ratio in 29.0 innings at the two levels. That performance was enough to send him rocketing up most prospect lists and certainly was a strong first step on his professional baseball journey. Lotzkar started out in extended spring training, but was recently sent to low-A Dayton, where he hasn't found the going quite as easy as he did last year. In 2 starts and 7.o innings, Lotzkar has posted a 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and an 11/7 K/BB ratio. Like Ravin, control is the problem. Both have good stuff, but they need to harness it in order to be effective in the professional ranks. Still, as with Ravin, time is on Lotzkar's side, so he has plenty of time to harness his stuff.

17. Josh Roenicke - Roenicke has lived up to his reputation early in 2008. Roenicke exploded into the collective conscious last year by showing stellar command to go with overpowering stuff. He has proven that last year was no fluke by again showing flashes of brilliance. He started out the 2008 campaign at double-A Chattanooga and was quickly promoted to triple-A Louisville. Between the two levels, Roenicke has posted stellar numbers: 2.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 56/21 K/BB ratio. Roenicke is poised to make his MLB splash in the near future, which will make the Francisco Cordero signing look even more dubious. Regardless, the troika of Jared Burton, Josh Roenicke, and Francisco Cordero should give the Reds the nastiest bullpen since the Nasty Boys walked the earth.

18. Pedro Viola - Unfortunately, Pedro Viola's 2008 season hasn't exactly been "sweet music." Viola started at double-A Chattanooga and has had his fair share of struggles. In 31.0 innings, Pedro has an ERA of 6.10, a 1.90 WHIP, and a 36/22 K/BB ratio. Pedro will be 25 tomorrow, so it would be nice to see him get back on track, but he's still a promising arm and has a bright future. Perhaps not as bright as it seemed last year, but time will tell.

19. Brandon Waring - Waring is another player who made a noisy debut in the professional ranks, ripping the cover off the ball with the Billings Mustangs in 2007. The Reds sent Waring to Dayton where he has posted a solid line of .280/.357/.500/.857. He has hit 14 homers, demonstrating that his power is more than legitimate. However, as with Juan Francisco, it's difficult not to be worried about his strikeout rate. In 254 ABs, Waring has struck out a stunning 92 times, which works out to a strikeout every 2.8 ABs. What's even more alarming is that he is having so much difficulty making contact at low-A ball. Waring is a college ballplayer, so he shouldn't be having so much trouble at low-A Ball. The competition is only going to get tougher and it's difficult to imagine the more advanced pitchers really exploiting all the holes in Waring's swing. The power is nice, but I'm just not sure I see Waring having much success as he advances up the ladder.

20. Sean Watson - When I looked at him last year, I had concerns about Watson and his sloppy mechanics. Unfortunately, those concerns still ring true. He started out the 2008 season at high-A Sarasota, where he posted a 4.50 ERA and a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. He was bumped up to Chattanooga, where he's gotta off to a rough start, posting a 14.85 ERA in his first 6.2 innings pitched. Last year, the Reds had Watson work as a starter, but they have switched him back to the bullpen for 2008, but the results just aren't there yet. Originally, I thought Watson might become a middle reliever, but even that may be optimistic. Still, like the others, he has time to get back on track.

21. Carlos Fisher - Unlike many on this list, who started the 2008 season off with a bang, Carlos has had a quietly effective 2008 season. Like Watson, Fisher worked as a starter in 2007, but the Reds are using him exclusively as a reliever in 2008. Fisher struck me as a future reliever, so I'm not too surprised by the move, but it's good to see him take to the change like a duck to water. At Chattanooga this year, Fisher has posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a stellar 33/15 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings. In addition, Fisher has continued to demonstrate impressive groundball tendencies, posting a 1.75 GB/FB ratio. Fisher's combination of solid stuff, good control, and heavy groundball tendencies could make him a valuable middle reliever in Cincinnati. First, he'll have to continue to climb the ladder, but he's off to a quiet, productive 2008 season.

22. Sam Lecure - Lecure is the type of pitcher that I like, so I'm rooting for him to take it to the next level. He has actually been fairly solid in 2008, posting a 3.75, 1.33 WHIP, and a rather impressive 76/37 K/BB ratio for Chattanooga. However, I still question whether he has enough stuff to be successful at the MLB level. I'd love to say yes, but I just don't think he does. In addition, his flyball tendencies (0.67 GB/FB in 2008) don't bode well for any future he may have in Great American Ballpark. Still, I'll continue to root Lecure on, but unfortunately I'm not all that optimistic about his chances.

23. Justin Turner - Turner is the type of player who constantly exceeds expectations and wrings every last drop of production out of his rather limited skills. Sabermetricians don't like him, but scouts swear that he'll carve out an MLB career. It's hard not to like someone who gets the absolute best out of his gifts, but Turner is looking like a poor bet to have much of an MLB career. Perhaps he can latch on as a utility infielder, but his 2008 line at Chattanooga of .232/.320/.317/.637 hardly inspires confidence.

24. Justin Reed - I am higher on Reed than most, as I think he's got the skills necessary to be a top of the order hitter and a solid defensive player. Reed didn't focus solely on baseball until he was drafted by the Reds, rather he split his time between football and baseball. Accordingly, he's still a bit behind the development curve, but he has the gifts to catch up in a hurry if all breaks right. The Reds sent Reed to Dayton, where he has posted a respectable line of .259/.337/.415/.752. He has also swiped 15 out of 19 bases he has attempted to steal. Reed still needs to polish his game and learn the nuances of baseball. While he does seem to be making progress, his contact rate needs improvement. On the season, he is striking out every 2.8 ABs. Clearly, that's not acceptable for someone with his limited power, so he'll need to improve that aspect of his game. Reed has shown improvement, but needs to continue to work, work, work on his skills. His athletic ability could allow him to take a big step forward at some point in his development, but unfortunately he is just as likely to never have the light come on.

25. Tyler Pelland - Pelland has really struggled in 2008, doing little to earn the confidence of the front office. Pelland is just a stone's throw away from the big leagues, but with his performance he may as well be playing for the Long Islands Ducks of the Independent League. In 28.2 innings, Pelland has posted a 33/20 K/BB ratio and an uninspiring 5.65 ERA. Pelland is continuing to show the inconsistency that has plagued him. He's got swing-and-missing stuff, but just can't get command of it with any regularity. So, once again, the Reds will have to wait on Pelland, whose career is stalling at triple-A Louisville.

Other Notables - Obviously, the big story here is Daryl Thompson, whose performance got him on the fast track to the big leagues, where he held his own against the Yankees. Thompson's stuff came all the way back after surgery for a torn labrum and he has established himself as one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. He has demonstrated a very strong combination of power and control. Time will tell just how high his ceiling will be, but for now he appears to be at least a future middle of the rotation pitcher. Paul Janish got the call by default, after every shortstop in the entire city of Cincinnati got injured (and believe me, Dusty tried them all before finally turning to Janish). Unfortunately, Paul is still struggling with the bat, but he does intrigue me. If he can hit a meager .265, then his on base skills and stellar defense will make him a viable shortstop at the MLB level. While Chris Dickerson impressed Dusty during spring training, his offense continues to fall short. At AAA, he is producing only at a .255/.357/.388 clip. Time is rapidly running out for Chris. Zach Cozart is down at Dayton, where he is showing surprising power, tallying 8 homeruns and a stellar .459 SLG%. His glove is still solid, so he'll go as far as his bat will take him. Finally, Craig Tatum has really struggled in 2008, posting a disturbing line of .229/.300/.351. He is a borderline prospect, but the Reds are still shallow at catcher, so he'll continue to get a look.

Top Prospect List: Notables

I thought I'd take a quick look at and post some thoughts on some of the Reds prospects who just missed the cut for the top 25. These guys missed for a combination of reasons, which include age, injuries, lack of projection, or lack of stuff. However, the jury is still out, so they may yet step up and make an impact on the fortunes of the Cincinnati Reds professional baseball club.

Zack Cozart - ss

Cozart was widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in college when the Reds drafted him out of Mississippi with their 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft. Unfortunately, his bat lags well behind his glove.

Cozart has a strong, accurate arm, though he does throw from a lower arm slot than you traditionally see out of a shortstop. Cozart has been compared to Adam Everett, which immediately catches my eye, as I have tremendous appreciation for the defensive skills of Everett. However, at this point, it's not realistic to put Cozart in that class defensively. Cozart has good, soft hands, but his range is only considered a tick above average. At this point, Cozart makes all the plays that he can get his hands on, but ultimately he may not get to enough balls to make him an elite defensive shortstop.

At the plate, Cozart has a lot of work to do. He is very much an upper body hitter, which limits his power and ability to drive the ball with authority. Despite his hitting approach, Cozart still has trouble making consistent contact. He struck out 36 times in 184 ABs at low-A Dayton. The Reds will be patient with Cozart, but after posting a .239/.288/.332/.620 line, it's clear that Cozart has a long road to the majors.


Paul Janish - ss

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like Janish is ever going to hit enough to earn a fulltime job. Janish is a very good defensive shortstop and has a rocket for an arm, but his bat continues to hold him back. Given his defensive prowess, Janish wouldn't need to hit much to justify a job, but even with the bar set so low, Janish has yet to vault over it.

Interestingly enough, Baseball America just named Paul Janish the most disciplined hitter in the Reds system. I've liked Janish since watching him play in the College World Series for Rice. He made a couple of spectacular plays at shortstop and displayed the canon for an arm on several occasions. Given his plus glove, plus arm, and good plate discipline, Janish has the right tools to be of use. In fact, if he could hit just .265 at the big league level, he'd likely have a .350-.360 OBP, which when added to his defense would make him an attractive option at shortstop. Unfortunately, at 25 years old there just isn't much projection left in Janish, so regrettably he's about as good as he's going to get.


Chris Dickerson - of

Dickerson might well be the best athlete in the Reds system. Unfortunately, great athleticism doesn't always translate into great baseball skills. To be successful, baseball requires a more nuanced skillset, one which doesn't always surrender to tremendous athleticism.

Dickerson joins Drew Stubbs as the best defensive outfielders in the system. In addition, he's got very good speed and on good on base skills. Unfortunately, Dickerson cannot make consistent contact. His strikeout rate remains far too high, as he struck out 162 times in just 468 ABs. If Dickerson can make consistent contact, then his batting average, on base percentage, and top flight defense will both be more than enough to earn him a starting centerfielder job in major league baseball.

However, Dickerson still doesn't make enough contact to post an acceptable batting average, so he remains stuck at the upper levels of the minors. He'll be 26 at the beginning of the season, so time isn't on his side any more.


Alexis Oliveras - of

Oliveras is a bit of a mystery man. The Reds nabbed him with the 289th pick of the 2007 draft. Oliveras went to the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy High School, stands 6'0", bats left, and throws right.

His performance in 2007 (.191/.240/.253/.493) clearly indicates that he was over-matched in his 162 ABs in the Gulf Coast League. However, there is a glimmer of hope in his scouting video. He's got a smooth lefthanded swing. Unfortunately, he needs to make some serious adjustments. He hits from a very wide stance and has a rather long swing. His bat speed isn't overly impressive, so he'll definitely need to both tighten and shorten up his swing in order to have any success against more advanced pitching.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but there's just enough in his scouting video (see it here) to put him on my radar. However, at this point, he's a long shot and has a lot of work to do to even become a legitimate prospect. Time is on his side, but he'll need to show something in 2008 to stay in the Reds plans.


Daryl Thompson - RHP

Thompson is an interesting case. If you looked strictly at his stats, Thompson did very well in 2007. He posted a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/33 K/BB ratio between low-A Dayton and high-A Sarasota. However, all reports indicate that Thompson's stuff has not returned and his velocity is down significantly from where it was before his injury problems. So, his performance may have been nothing more than Thompson dominating significantly less advanced competition with below average stuff. It'll be interesting to see how Thompson does in 2008, but he'll need his best stuff to have success against more advanced competition.


Craig Tatum - C

Tatum is an interesting prospect. He was selected by the Reds in the 3rd Round of the 2004 draft out of Mississippi State University. He immediately fell off the radar when he required Tommy John surgery in 2005.

Tatum hits with a wide stance and utilizes a leg kick as a timing mechanism. As is to be expected with a leg kick as a timing mechanism, Tatum is susceptible to quality offspeed pitches, as he gets out on his front foot too early. Tatum has a fairly simple, uncomplicated swing, which should allow him to make consistent contact and hit for a solid average. However, his swing doesn't involve a lot of lower body or explosive hip action, so his power potential is very limited.

On defense, Tatum has always been solid. He's got soft hands, good lateral movement behind the plate, and a strong arm even after Tommy John Surgery. Ultimately, there is always room in the Majors for quality defensive catchers, but Tatum's bat makes it difficult to imagine him being much more than a potential backup.

Baseball America slots him in at #17 on the Reds top 30 prospect list, but that seems a bit high for a player with a career line of .259/.329/.397/.726.

You can see Tatum at the plate in his MLB Draft Scouting video here.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Personally, I find it remarkable that the Reds farm system has come so far, so fast. It hasn't been easy, but the organization's dedication to improved scouting, player development, and international scouting has really paid off. The Reds not only have improved the chances that their draft picks will pan out, but they also improved those odds by bringing in quality prospect from their international academies.

Prospects are inherently risky, so many of them will never pan out. However, the international academies greatly increase the flow of talent headed for the majors. The Reds no longer have to rely solely on the select few impact prospects they get in the amateur draft each year, but rather double that number by bringing in talent with international free agents.

The greater the number of quality prospects, the greater the number of homegrown Major League players. All in all, things are looking very bright for the Reds farm system.