Game Day Thoughts: Friday Reds v. Giants

**Norris Hopper dropped down a bunt on the first pitch of the game and beat it out for a single. By the time he got back to first base, home plate umpire Bob Davidson had called him out for being out of the batters box when contact was made. Replays clearly show that Hopper was inside the box and Davidson blew the call. To top it all off, Davidson then proceeded to eject Hopper, who was riding Davidson from the dugout. Davidson, who is deridingly known as Balkin' Bob for his overzealous balk calls, clearly compounded the problem by throwing Hopper out of the game. MLB umpires are the best in all the major sports, but Davidson's performance tonight was an embarrassment.

**Mackanin really handled the Hopper situation poorly, as he should have been out of the dugout arguing the call. If he had gone out to argue the call, then Hopper likely wouldn't have been thrown out of the game. Poorly handled by both Balkin' Bob and Mackanin.

**The Reds first three hitters of the game put the first pitch they saw into play. Hopper should have been safe at first on the bunt and Keppinger and Phillips both hit the ball hard, but I'd like to see a bit more patience at the plate. There's really no reason why Hopper had to drop the bunt down on the first pitch. One of the jobs of the leadoff hitter is to take pitches to let the players behind you see what the pitcher is throwing. Hopper needs to demonstrate a greater understanding of what it takes to be an effective leadoff man before he can lay claim to a larger role for the Reds. Hopper needs to realize that singles hitters who can't set the table are not worthy of substantive roles at the MLB level.

**Jeff Keppinger made a real nice play at shortstop on a slow roller by Bengie Molina. Obviously, Kepp had a lot of time given the glacial pace at which Molina moves down the line, but Kepp charged hard, had good footwork, made a smooth transition with the ball from glove to hand, and made a strong throw on the run. Those are the kind of plays that give you confidence that maybe Keppinger can handle short over the long haul.

**Jorge Cantu put a few nice swings on the ball and racked up three doubles. As of right now, he looks like another steal for GM Wayne Krivsky. Cantu isn't likely to be a starter, but he gives the Reds a nice bat off the bench and greater flexibility on defense. Given that the Reds gave up almost nothing to get him (Cantu, Shaun Cumberland, and cash for Brian Shackelford, Calvin Medlock, and future considerations) he's another good risk/reward move by Krivsky.

**Buck Coats is intriguing. He may not be a starter, but he looks like he could be a solid 4th or 5th outfielder. He plays good defense, has good speed, and seems to hit a little bit. Could be a nice depth acquisition by Krivsky.

**Kevin Frandsen is really hitting the ball well as of late. He's locked in and hitting line drives from gap to gap. He's got good pitch recognition and tremendous bat control. He's going to be a pretty good player. The Giants think he's another Robby Thompson with more offensive upside, which isn't half bad.

**It's hard to believe how much good young pitching the Giants have acquired. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Noah Lowry, and even Pat Misch look like potential impact starting pitchers at the MLB level. It's really an embarrassment of riches.

**It'll be very interesting to see how the Reds handle Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger. For the past few years, critics have been saying that the Reds rely too heavily on the long ball and need a more diversified offense. Critics point to the strikeout totals of the team as being a big problem. While I don't necessarily agree, as I think the detrimental impact of strikeouts is overrated, it's clear that Keppinger and Hopper are the type of contact hitters for whom the public has been clamoring.

For his career, Jeff Keppinger has made contact on 94% of his swings, while Hopper is at 88% for his career. Just for comparison sake, Ichiro is at 89% for his career. Keppinger and Hopper rarely swing and miss, but also don't walk or tally many extra base hits. So, would they help diversify the offense or act as a drag on the team's production?

**Interesting to see Joey Votto play. In the day of the hulking slugger, it's interesting to see a good hitting firstbase prospect who isn't muscle bound.

**Poor job by Jason Ellison on the ball hit by Omar Vizquel in the 6th inning. Coats made a sliding effort, but Ellison wasn't in position to back him up. Obviously neither Coats or Ellison is a starter in 2008, but that play is just emblematic of the Reds need to improve the defense for 2008. They won't improve until the team defense is better.

In 2006, the Reds DER was .684. In 2007, the team DER has actually fallen to .680. So, despite moving Griffey out of center and bringing in Alex Gonzalez, the Reds are turning "balls in play" into outs at a lower clip. The Reds MUST improve the defense or they will NEVER become a viable playoff team.

**It's time to close the book on Matt Belisle. He's just not an effective starting pitcher.

**Phillips seems to be pressing to get his 30th homer. If he does get one more homer, then he'll join Barry Larkin, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano as the only middle infielders in MLB history to have 30 homers and 30 steals in a season.

**Mike Stanton may well be done. He gave up a three run homer to Omar Vizquel in Pac Bell Park. That's not easy to do. How hard is it? Prior to his homer off Stanton, Omar had 2 homers on the season and only 1 in Pac Bell Park and had not hit a righthanded homerun since June of 2005.

Cantu, Dickerson, and uber-prospect Jay Bruce

Well, so far, Jorge Cantu's performance is lending a lot credence to the idea that he just needed a change of scenery. At AAA Louisville thus far, Cantu is hitting .317/.364/.463/.827 in 41 ABs.
Whether or not he becomes a quality regular, it is hard to view the deal to acquire him as anything other than a win for the Reds. They gave up little of value to get him and Cantu should, at the very least, be a quality bat off the bench.

Chris Dickerson is an interesting prospect. He has great tools and strong on base skills, but he just isn't putting the bat on the ball often enough to be quality regular. At AAA Louisville, Dickerson is hitting .269/.371/.427/.798 with 19 steals in 24 tries. Dickerson is also a tremendous defensive centerfielder and could be the leadoff option that Cincinnati has lacked over the passed several seasons. Of course, he'll need to reduce his strikeouts to raise his batting average in order for this to happen. Still, even though he's a long shot to do so, it's still a good idea to keep an eye on Dickerson, as he may still surprise and make an impact at the Major League level.

Finally, Jay Bruce continues to crush every pitcher at every level. He is truly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He is 20 years old, but is crushing AAA level pitching. Right now, he is posting a line of .312/.379/.624/1.002 at Louisville. Despite his age and level of experience, it seems Bruce is pushing hard for a chance to start in the 2008 Cincinnati outfield, despite the fact that it would create another logjam of talent. Bruce is one of the rare prospects who does not need much development time due to his extraordinary abilities.

While the outlook remains bleak for the Reds at the Major League level, there is still hope to be found, especially in the farm system.

And so it begins....

Well, the Reds made their long anticipated splash before the trade deadline, but it came in the form that few could have expected. The Reds acquired Jorge Cantu, Shaun Cumberland, and cash for Brian Shackelford, Calvin Medlock, and future considerations.

Oddly enough, I like the deal itself more than I like Jorge Cantu. The Reds acquired a hitter with some upside, but gave up little of note to do so. Shackelford spent some time in the majors, but had some legal trouble last year and never seemed to regain his composure. Medlock had a very nice year at AA, but doesn't have the kind of upside that may make the Reds regret giving him up.

This type of deal is where Reds GM Wayne Krivsky seems to thrive. These low risk/high reward deals have been very good to Wayne Krivsky. He has acquired several undervalued players who have paid huge dividends. Krivsky acquired Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton, and David Ross at a very low cost. These deals cost little to make, but have the potential for a substantial payoff. The acquisition of Jorge Cantu is just such a deal.

While I like the nature and type of deal, I'm not wild about Jorge Cantu. Cantu has more potential than the players the Reds gave up, but he's far from certain to be a viable MLB player. He's the type of player that the Reds really don't need. He is an undisciplined hitter who lacks speed and is a liability with the glove.

Cantu's glove prevents him from being a viable option in the middle of the infield, while his bat prevents him from being a viable option at a corner infield spot. As such, he's really nothing more than a bench player and a spot starter, especially when you consider that the Reds have top prospect Joey Votto as the future at first and Brandon Phillips entrenched at 2b. Accommodating Cantu as a starter would require some heavy duty roster reworking and potentially playing players out of position. If the Reds envision Cantu as being a utlity player and bat off the bench, then this is a solid acquisition.

Much is made of Cantu's performance in 2005, as he hit 28 homeruns and had 117 RBI. That said, he also posted a less than inspiring line of .286/.311/.497/.808. His counting stats were good that season, but his ratios weren't great. Not to mention, he had a strikeout to walk ratio of 83/19. That kind of free swinging approach can be exploited by pitchers as they become more familiar with a hitter and word of his weaknesses spreads around the league.

Earlier this year, Cantu lost his roster spot on the Devil Rays. In the process, he didn't comport himself very well. He openly campaigned for a trade and displayed a generally poor attitude. Rather than work hard to improve his game and reclaim his spot at the Major League level, Cantu instead seemed to sulk and pout.

At AAA Durham this year, Cantu hit a paltry .244/.303/.356/.659, indicative of a poor skillset, a poor attitude, or both. Maybe the change of scenery will be just what he needs, but at this point his performance and attitude are cause for concern.

Krivsky seems to be much more adept at trades that bringing in undervalued talent than he is at executing winning trades that involve giving up value. Krivsky's stated asking price for Adam Dunn, a proven pitcher, an infielder, and a top prospect, did little more than scare off potential trading partners. Krivsky seems to be better at spotting undervalued talent than he is at understanding the market valuation for established players.

However, time will tell if the acquisition of the undervalued Jorge Cantu will be yet another winner for Krivsky. At the very least, Cantu should be a nice bat off the bench, but he'll need to prove that he is deserving before being given a more substantial role.