2009 Top Prospect List: #23 Adam Rosales, inf

Adam Rosales
Height 6-2, Weight 195, B/T: R/R, DOB: 05/20/1983
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #15

Adam Rosales, a 12th round pick in the 2005 draft, is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. If Josh Ravin was the most depressing report to write up, then Adam Rosales may well be the most challenging. At this point, I'd be lying if I said that I knew exactly what to make of him, but let's take a look.

2008 SEASON

In 2008, Rosales had an extremely volatile season, which is in keeping with his entire professional career. The Reds sent Rosales to triple-A Louisville to start the 2008 season. On the season, Rosales posted a slash line of .287/.339/.463/.802 with a 82/22 K/BB ratio and 11 homers. The final line looks solid, but Rosales had to travel a difficult road to get there, as he started off the season ice-cold, but ultimately finished it white-hot.

In April, he was ice cold with a meager .177 batting average and a paltry 9% line drive rate. His line wasn't much better in May, as he hit only .232, but he was driving the ball better as evidenced by his 22% line drive rate. In June, he finally got it going, hitting .299 with a .561 slugging percentage. In July, he kept it rolling by hitting .324 with a .471 slugging percentage and was even better in August hitting .436 and slugging .764.

In sum, Rosales got progressively better in each passing month of the season and finished out so strong that he earned a call-up to the majors in September. Unfortunately, major league pitching did what its minor league brethren could not, which is to say they poured cold water on Rosales's white hot streak, limiting him to a line of .207/.233/.241.

So, who is Adam Rosales? Is he the slow starter or white hot finisher from 2008? Is he the guy who posted a .946 OPS in 2005, a .726 OPS in 2006, a .904 OPS in 2007, or the .802 OPS in 2008? Is he a 1b, 2b, 3b, or shortstop?

Ultimately, it's difficult to get a handle on Rosales, but once again it seems to come down to his place on the defensive spectrum.

C--SS--2b--CF--3b--RF--LF--1b

The farther to the left he can stay, the less offense he needs to provide. The farther to the right he slides, the more offense he has to provide to justify the position.

SWING AND PLATE APPROACH

Rosales has a swing only a mother could love. Ok, ok, so it's not that bad and it does have the advantage of actually being effective. Still, poetry it is not. Fortunately, Rosales adds a strong batting eye and good control of the strikezone, which really helps his swing play up.

At the plate, Rosales has a pretty straight forward set up, using a slightly wider than shoulder width stance. His stance is square to the plate and he keeps his back elbow up. When he brings the bat up over his shoulder, he uses a bat waggle wherein he quickly and continuously moves the bat from vertical to horizontal while waiting for the pitch. When the pitch is delivered, Rosales basically rolls his front foot up onto the toe and puts it back down. He has very little forward stride in facilitating his weight transfer.

At that point, Rosales begins his swing, which is top-hand heavy, especially when he tries to turn on the pitch. When he tries to turn on the pitch, he often throws the top hand at the ball and puts a lot of body into his swing. Instead of staying on the ball and looking down the barrel at contact, Rosales almost seems to pull the swing through the zone with his shoulders. This type of swing forces him to open up his front foot and body earlier than the more conventional swings, but Rosales makes it work. When he takes the pitch the other way he has to stay on the ball longer and his swing can be a bit less "top-handsy." Even so, his overall swing mechanics create a downward plane to his swing (see photo: strong top hand action in swing). While it may be functional, the "chopping wood" approach isn't pretty. Still, production is what matters, as you don't get style points in baseball.

DEFENSE AND POSITION

Last year I wrote about the implications of Rosales's downward slide on the defensive spectrum. Fortunately, the reason he was shifted to firstbase was to rest a sore throwing elbow, not because he couldn't handle a more challenging defensive position. That's good news for both the Reds and Rosales, as his bat doesn't profile well at firstbase.

It's difficult to know what the Reds plan to do with Rosales. He played primarily shortstop in college, but he just doesn't have the range to play there at the professional level. When he was promoted to the majors in 2008, he spent time at both secondbase and thirdbase. Ultimately, Adam's best position is likely thirdbase, as his range may be stretched at second. His range and lateral movement are good enough to handle thirdbase. Regardless, the presence of Brandon Phillips at secondbase means that it's not a real option for Rosales, so it's seemingly the hot-corner or bust.

Despite the elbow soreness of 2008, Rosales's best tool is his arm, which is both strong and accurate. Given the very poor defensive performance of Edwin Encarnacion, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to give Rosales an extended look at third, as I don't doubt that he's already a better third baseman than Edwin. However, the window may have closed on Rosales's chances to be an everyday player, as Edwin is currently blocking him and Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are potentially better options for the future at the hot corner.

CONCLUSION

I still wrestle with the likely future of Adam Rosales, as part of me thinks he has the bat and defense to be a league average starter. Ultimately, his bat will determine his future role. Still, given the makeup of the Reds' roster and the volatility of his performance, Rosales likely projects as a utility player. His versatility on the infield is a positive attribute and perhaps the one the Reds are most likely to utilize. Even if he doesn't become an everyday regular, he could still have good value to the Reds, as versatile utility infielders with solid offensive skills don't grow on trees. Ultimately, Rosales will go as far as his bat will take him, but right now he projects as only an MLB bench player.

Meet Yonder Alonso

Well, it's time to take a deeper look at Reds 1st round draft pick Yonder Alonso.

Alonso stands 6-2, weighs 215, bats left, and throws right. He was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 16th round of the 2005 draft by the Minnesota Twins. Yonder elected to attend the University of Miami instead and that decision paid off handsomely, as the Reds selected him with the 7th overall pick this past June as a draft eligible junior.


UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI

Alonso had a truly stellar collegiate career.

In 2006, Yonder was 19-years old and posted a .295/.373/.492/.865 line as a freshman. He managed to hit 10 homers and demonstrated the polished plate approach that belies his age by posting a K/BB ratio of 37/32. His performance as a freshman was very strong and indicated that big things were to come. He wouldn't make us wait long to see them.

In 2007, Yonder took a big step forward and posted a line of .376/.519/.705/1.124 as a 20-year old sophomore. His walks (64) rapidly outpaced his strikeouts (31) and his homerun total jumped to 18.

In 2008, Yonder was even better at the plate, putting together a wonderfully absurd line of .370/.534/.777/1.311. His K/BB ratio got even stronger, posting a 35/76 ratio. Yonder was so disciplined that he led the nation in walks (76) and walks per game (1.19). He also finished 6th in the nation with 24 homeruns.

He truly was one of the elite hitters in all of collegiate baseball and certainly the most disciplined and polished. When he finally decides to sign, he should move very quickly through the Reds system.


PHYSICAL STATURE AND DEFENSIVE SKILLS

Alonso is a large individual with an odd body type. He's very thick and barrel chested, but doesn't seem to be at all out-of-shape or overweight. He's just big and slow. However, while he has below average speed, he actually does seems to have pretty good agility. In addition, he has a pretty good arm and should be able to handle most balls that he can reach.

Unfortunately, Alonso is only an average defensive first baseman and his skillset precludes a move up the defensive spectrum to a more challenging position. The problem is that he is likely to get worse as he ages and his body continues to fill out. His body type and skill set don't leave much margin for error on defense, so if he loses any agility or foot speed, then he'll immediately become a DH in a non-DH league.

C--SS--2b--CF--3b--RF--LF--1b

When you start out at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there isn't anywhere to go but DH. In addition, when you draft someone from the bottom of the spectrum, you are drafting him for his bat.

Thankfully, Yonder brings a great deal to the table offensively.


SWING AND MECHANICS

Yonder is patient. Very patient. He waits for pitches he likes and makes sure that he doesn't miss them when he gets them. His pitch recognition is obviously very strong, as indicated by his remarkably strong K/BB ratio.

At the plate, Yonder utilizes a fairly quiet stance. He doesn't have much excess movement while waiting for the pitch. While the stance matters far less than the position one is in when the pitch enters the hitting zone, I always prefer a quiet approach.

Yonder is another player who utilizes a very small stride. His stance is wider than shoulder width, so his stride is really just picking the foot up and putting it back down. However, while his stride foot doesn't move towards the pitcher, it does move in towards home plate. Yonder uses a slightly open stance, so he uses his stride to close his body up and get into better hitting position.

His swing generates significant power, but interestingly enough that power is much more evident to center and left field (his opposite field). Eventually, the Reds should be able to help him turn on the ball a bit better, but for now he is more comfortable driving the ball to the opposite field.

In his stance, Yonder holds his hands a bit higher than most. While waiting for the pitch, Yonder holds his hands up behind his left ear. This hand position results in the bat being essential horizontal to the ground, rather than pointing to the sky like most hitters.

Yonder's stride towards homeplate to close up his open stance when coupled with his higher hand position makes him more comfortable driving pitches that are middle away. When a hitter steps into a pitch, it is often times possible for a pitcher to work successful in on the hands. His hand position adds a bit of length to his swing, as he has to bring the hands and bat up into a better hitting position, which makes him a bit slower to the inside pitches.

Given his offensive abilities, it shouldn't be too difficult for the Reds to shorten his swing path to the inside pitches, which will help unlock his pull power. Regardless, his bat speed and slight uppercut swing generate substantial power. Overall, Yonder's combination of power and patience was essentially unrivaled in the 2008 draft. You can access his draft video here.


BOTTOM LINE

Yonder is a hitter. Period. And, he's a very good one. He brings substantial on base skills to an organization that could use more of them. His combination of power and plate discipline is very impressive. He seems a very good bet to be a complete hitter, posting good power numbers, on base percentages, and high batting averages.

That said, he is an interesting choice for the Reds. In the past few years, the Reds have focused on players at the skill defensive positions (CF: Drew Stubbs, C: Devin Mesoraco, etc). So, this is a bit of departure, but also indicates that the Reds may be heading back to a philosophy of drafting the best player available. The Reds already have Joey Votto locked in at first base and, as a college firstbaseman, Yonder should arrive at the MLB level sooner than normal.

If a team is going to draft a college first baseman, then they are drafting him for his bat, plain and simple. Accordingly, a polished hitter like Yonder should be in the majors within a year-and-a-half. It would be hard not to be disappointed if he wasn't in the majors by then.

Ultimately, Reds fans will love Yonder's offensive game and he adds a much needed impact bat to the system. That said, he's an interesting choice for an organization that already has Joey Votto at first. He would seem to be a better choice for a team like the Royals, who have no first baseman at the MLB level and would benefit from a prospect who could move quickly to join Alex Gordon and Billy Butler before they hit free agency.

Ultimately, it's hard not to love Yonder's power and patience, but the surrounding circumstances will have to work themselves out for this choice to have the maximize positive impact on the organization. While he has yet to sign, it's difficult to envision him believing that he could do better by heading back into the draft for 2009. It should be only a matter of time before he is hitting homeruns in the Reds organization.

Top Prospect List: #15 Adam Rosales, 1b

An interesting thing happened to Adam Rosales in 2007. He went to bed one night as a shortstop and woke up the next morning as a first baseman. I'm not sure exactly when it happened or why, but it is a curious move and has a huge impact on his status as a prospect. A move from shortstop to first base is a huge slide down the defensive spectrum.

Defensive Spectrum

C--SS--2b--CF--3b--RF--LF--1b

The positions at the left end of the spectrum are more difficult than those at the right end. Accordingly, offensive production is more valuable from positions on the left end of the spectrum, as there are fewer players who can produce at the more difficult positions. Throughout the course of a player's career, he can typically slide to the right on the defensive spectrum, but rarely do players successfully move to the left on the spectrum.

Put into perspective, moving Rosales from shortstop to first base is about as far as you can fall on the defensive spectrum.

COLLEGE BALL

Rosales played for four years at Western Michigan University, following in the footsteps of such luminaries as Ribs Raney, John Vander Wal, and many others. While there, he compiled an impressive list of statistics for a shortstop, which did not go unnoticed by Reds area scout Rick Sellers, who felt that Rosales was undervalued. The Reds subsequently selected Rosales in the 12th round of the 2005 draft with the 362nd overall pick.

Rosales is 6'1, 193 lbs, throws right, and bats right. He has room to improve his strength, which would improve his projection and ceiling. Here's what he did during his four years at Western Michigan University:



PRO BALL

Rosales debuted in 2005, making a very quick impression in stops at Billings and Dayton. Between the two stops, Rosales hit a combined .325/.388/.558/.946, which quickly put him on the radar as a prospect to watch.

For his career, Rosales is hitting .285/.368/.492/.860. In 2007, he successfully made what's considered the most difficult jump in professional baseball when he hit a rock solid .278/.377/.549/.926 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 2007, Rosales saw his Isolated Power jump from .197 at High-A to .271 at Double-A. In addition, his Line Drive % jumped from 13% at High-A to 17% at Double-A. That level of performance certainly helped to solidified his prospect status after the position switch.

Rosales has demonstrated strong on base skills throughout the course of his baseball career, but the question is now whether he'll have the power necessary to be an MLB first baseman. His production would have been great at shortstop, but the baseline production at first base is much higher and there's no guarantee that Rosales will be able to reach it.

DEFENSE

Clearly, Rosales lacked the skills necessary to stick at shortstop at the professional level. However, it's difficult to understand why the Reds didn't give him an extended look at second or third. All the scouting reports indicate that he has a strong arm, good hands, and decent range. It's difficult to imagine a shortstop at the college level and early in his professional career being unable to play a more challenging position than first base.

Given those defensive skills, he seems able to handle a more challenging defensive position. The more challenging the defensive position, the more valuable the offensive production.

Offensive production that is All Star caliber at shortstop may be below average at first. The move to first base just made Rosales' job on offense that much tougher, as he'll have to improve his power output in order to make it to the majors.

FUTURE

Rosales is currently playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League where he's been playing first base and batting .289/.360/.467/.827. While those would be solid numbers for a middle infielder, they aren't likely to cut it at first base.

Rosales responded well on offensive to the move to first, posting a solid line of .286/.385/.519/.904 in 2007 at high-A Sarasota and Double A Chattanooga. While that level of production is encouraging, he'll have to continue to develop his power if he's going to remain a top prospect.

Ultimately, the switch to first base may end up robbing Rosales of a substantial portion of his value as a prospect, but he still may be able to take his offense up a notch, so for now he checks in at #15.