2009 Top Prospect List: #23 Adam Rosales, inf

Adam Rosales
Height 6-2, Weight 195, B/T: R/R, DOB: 05/20/1983
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #15

Adam Rosales, a 12th round pick in the 2005 draft, is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. If Josh Ravin was the most depressing report to write up, then Adam Rosales may well be the most challenging. At this point, I'd be lying if I said that I knew exactly what to make of him, but let's take a look.

2008 SEASON

In 2008, Rosales had an extremely volatile season, which is in keeping with his entire professional career. The Reds sent Rosales to triple-A Louisville to start the 2008 season. On the season, Rosales posted a slash line of .287/.339/.463/.802 with a 82/22 K/BB ratio and 11 homers. The final line looks solid, but Rosales had to travel a difficult road to get there, as he started off the season ice-cold, but ultimately finished it white-hot.

In April, he was ice cold with a meager .177 batting average and a paltry 9% line drive rate. His line wasn't much better in May, as he hit only .232, but he was driving the ball better as evidenced by his 22% line drive rate. In June, he finally got it going, hitting .299 with a .561 slugging percentage. In July, he kept it rolling by hitting .324 with a .471 slugging percentage and was even better in August hitting .436 and slugging .764.

In sum, Rosales got progressively better in each passing month of the season and finished out so strong that he earned a call-up to the majors in September. Unfortunately, major league pitching did what its minor league brethren could not, which is to say they poured cold water on Rosales's white hot streak, limiting him to a line of .207/.233/.241.

So, who is Adam Rosales? Is he the slow starter or white hot finisher from 2008? Is he the guy who posted a .946 OPS in 2005, a .726 OPS in 2006, a .904 OPS in 2007, or the .802 OPS in 2008? Is he a 1b, 2b, 3b, or shortstop?

Ultimately, it's difficult to get a handle on Rosales, but once again it seems to come down to his place on the defensive spectrum.

C--SS--2b--CF--3b--RF--LF--1b

The farther to the left he can stay, the less offense he needs to provide. The farther to the right he slides, the more offense he has to provide to justify the position.

SWING AND PLATE APPROACH

Rosales has a swing only a mother could love. Ok, ok, so it's not that bad and it does have the advantage of actually being effective. Still, poetry it is not. Fortunately, Rosales adds a strong batting eye and good control of the strikezone, which really helps his swing play up.

At the plate, Rosales has a pretty straight forward set up, using a slightly wider than shoulder width stance. His stance is square to the plate and he keeps his back elbow up. When he brings the bat up over his shoulder, he uses a bat waggle wherein he quickly and continuously moves the bat from vertical to horizontal while waiting for the pitch. When the pitch is delivered, Rosales basically rolls his front foot up onto the toe and puts it back down. He has very little forward stride in facilitating his weight transfer.

At that point, Rosales begins his swing, which is top-hand heavy, especially when he tries to turn on the pitch. When he tries to turn on the pitch, he often throws the top hand at the ball and puts a lot of body into his swing. Instead of staying on the ball and looking down the barrel at contact, Rosales almost seems to pull the swing through the zone with his shoulders. This type of swing forces him to open up his front foot and body earlier than the more conventional swings, but Rosales makes it work. When he takes the pitch the other way he has to stay on the ball longer and his swing can be a bit less "top-handsy." Even so, his overall swing mechanics create a downward plane to his swing (see photo: strong top hand action in swing). While it may be functional, the "chopping wood" approach isn't pretty. Still, production is what matters, as you don't get style points in baseball.

DEFENSE AND POSITION

Last year I wrote about the implications of Rosales's downward slide on the defensive spectrum. Fortunately, the reason he was shifted to firstbase was to rest a sore throwing elbow, not because he couldn't handle a more challenging defensive position. That's good news for both the Reds and Rosales, as his bat doesn't profile well at firstbase.

It's difficult to know what the Reds plan to do with Rosales. He played primarily shortstop in college, but he just doesn't have the range to play there at the professional level. When he was promoted to the majors in 2008, he spent time at both secondbase and thirdbase. Ultimately, Adam's best position is likely thirdbase, as his range may be stretched at second. His range and lateral movement are good enough to handle thirdbase. Regardless, the presence of Brandon Phillips at secondbase means that it's not a real option for Rosales, so it's seemingly the hot-corner or bust.

Despite the elbow soreness of 2008, Rosales's best tool is his arm, which is both strong and accurate. Given the very poor defensive performance of Edwin Encarnacion, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to give Rosales an extended look at third, as I don't doubt that he's already a better third baseman than Edwin. However, the window may have closed on Rosales's chances to be an everyday player, as Edwin is currently blocking him and Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are potentially better options for the future at the hot corner.

CONCLUSION

I still wrestle with the likely future of Adam Rosales, as part of me thinks he has the bat and defense to be a league average starter. Ultimately, his bat will determine his future role. Still, given the makeup of the Reds' roster and the volatility of his performance, Rosales likely projects as a utility player. His versatility on the infield is a positive attribute and perhaps the one the Reds are most likely to utilize. Even if he doesn't become an everyday regular, he could still have good value to the Reds, as versatile utility infielders with solid offensive skills don't grow on trees. Ultimately, Rosales will go as far as his bat will take him, but right now he projects as only an MLB bench player.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 1

Well, we are almost halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to check in on the sprouts down on the farm to see who on our Top 25 Prospect List is thriving and who is withering on the vine. Here is how I had them ranked this offseason and how they are doing this season:

1. Jay Bruce - Well, I'm not sure much needs to be said on this one, as Jay lit up triple-A pitching to the tune of .364/.393/.630/1.023, which brought him a well earned promotion to the majors. Bruce wasn't phased much by the big leagues, as he got off to a white hot start and sits now at a more than respectable .300/.386/.470/.856. Pitchers have slowed him down lately, but Bruce will simply need to adjust to their plan of attack. He has too much offensive skill to be held down for long. Get ready for a fun next decade or two, Reds fans.

2. Homer Bailey - Well, while Jay Bruce's path to the majors has been as straight as a string, Homer Bailey's has had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco. Homer's triple-A performance really didn't earn him a call-up to the majors, but he got one anyway. At triple-A Louisville, Homer currently sports a 4.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 62/31 K/BB ratio. During his most recent stint in the majors, Homer made 3 starts posting an 8.76 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP, and a putrid 3/10 K/BB ratio. He's still young, so he has time to right the ship, but at the MLB level his fastball velocity is down and he seems to lack both command of his pitches and also an out-pitch. Also, his attitude has repeatable been called into question, which is never a good sign for a young ballplayer. The Reds tinkered with Homer's mechanics (including having him bring his hands only to the chest, rather than over the head), but have yet to see positive results. The best thing the organization can do is leave him in triple-A for the rest of the year and force him to actually EARN his next promotion.

3. Johnny Cueto - Johnny's rookie season has been overshadowed by the dominance of fellow rotation member Edinson Volquez. However, unlike the prospect directly above him on the list, Cueto has demonstrated the skills necessary to be a very effective MLB starting pitcher. Three of the main elements of a successful pitcher are walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. Well, interestingly enough, Cueto is very strong in walk rate and strikeout rate, while Edinson is very strong in strikeout rate and groundball rate. However, Great American Ballpark is more ideally suited to a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher like Edinson, than it is to a low walk/strong strikeout pitcher like Cueto. Over time, Cueto should learn to limit his susceptibility to the long ball, but for now Edinson's game is better tailored to Great American Ballpark. Even so, Cueto should have a long, successful career in Cincinnati.

4. Joey Votto - The Canadian kid has performed about as well as expected, however his production is a bit different than I expected. So far in his big league career, Votto has displayed good power, but only average on base skills. Given his career minor league line of .289/.385/.476/.861, I expected the opposite. Regardless, his career is in its infancy and he should continue to provide professional At Bats in Cincinnati for years to come.

5. Drew Stubbs - Stubbs is still plying his trade at high-A Sarasota, where he started off as hot as a supernova. While he has cooled off as of late, his line is still solid at .267/.381/.405/.786 with 22 steals in 29 attempts. Stubbs came out of the University of Texas with a reputation for tremendous defense, good speed, and light-tower power. He is one of the few Longhorns to ever hit the ball over the scoreboard at Texas. However, his current skill set would seem to have him on track to be a leadoff hitter, as his on-base skills and speed are both above average. Stubbs is what we need to see from more of the Reds prospects: great defensively, strong on-base skills, and a high baseball IQ. If he continues to stay on track, he could be the Reds starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for good starting opening day of 2010.

6. Todd Frazier - Previously, I wrote: "Todd Frazier is a baseball player. That sentence may not seem like it says much, but in reality it says it all." That statement continues to be true, as Frazier's polished skill-set is enabling him to climb the ranks of the Reds system. He started out back at low-A Dayton, where he pounded pitchers to a tune of .321/.402/.598/1.000 before getting promoted to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Frazier is currently at .288/.347/.485/.832, which doesn't strike the eye as very impressive, but Sarasota is notoriously tough on hitters. Overall, Frazier is one of the brightest lights in the Reds system and his innate understanding of the game allows all of his solid tools to play up a notch. If he continues to perform as he has, Frazier will continue to climb the levels of the farm system and up even higher on this prospect list.

7. Juan Francisco - Juan is another bright light in the farm system and another example of the importance of international scouting in the modern game. Juan is also working at high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a respectable line of .283/.301/.476/.777 in a pitcher friendly park. Francisco has substantial power and is a very good athlete, but he is less polished than Todd Frazier and still has an alarming K/BB ratio of 69/8. It's difficult to envision a hitter have much MLB success without improving on his approach at the plate, so it's a very large red flag. Still, he's a young player and has significant upside, so he's definitely one to keep an eye on.

8. Devin Mesoraco - Mesoraco was held back in extended spring training to start the year, which led to talk that he was destined to head back to the rookie level Pioner League. But, the Reds eventually sent him to low-A Dayton, where Mesoraco begin to make good on his promise and justify his high draft slot. He is currently hitting .276/.331/.397/.727 after following up a slow start with a nice hot streak. As a catcher, Mesoraco has a long way to go in his development, as he has much to learn on both sides of the dish. Still, after an injury plagued season last year and a bit of a poor start in 2008, it's comforting to see Mesoraco play so capably. Mesoraco has a long way to go, but he's demonstrating a great deal of promise.

9. Travis Wood - Wood slid down many prospects list due to an injury plagued 2007, but he has had a strong bounce back year thus far. He posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA and 41/21 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings at high-A Sarasota. That earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga, where he has strong 24/12 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings pitched. He also has a poor ERA of 6.65, due in large part to back to back games in which he allowed 6 and then 7 earned runs. Still, Wood seems healthy, which should go a long way towards reestablishing him as a quality pitching prospect in the eyes of the national baseball media.

10. Chris Valaika - Valaika is another who slipped down most prospect lists, but he is having a very strong 2008 season. Chris posting a stellar line of .363/.393/.585/.978 at Sarasota and now has a line of .281/.345/.425/.770 at double-A Chattanooga. After some questions emerged about his bat in 2007, Valaika has done his best to answer them in 2008. The jump from A-ball to double-A ball is considered the toughest in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see if Valaika can build on his solid start. In addition, he has improved his defensive play at shortstop to the point that some are wondering whether he might be a legitimate option at shortstop at the big league level, which would only increase his value. Overall, it's been a nice year for Valaika, but he needs to continue to prove that he profiles as more than just a utility infielder at the big league level.

11. Neftali Soto - No one has gotten off to a better start in 2008 than Soto. The Reds assigned him to the rookie league Billings Mustangs, who just got their season underway. In the team's first 5 games, Soto has cranked 4 homeruns and posted a line of .435/.480/1.087/1.567. Soto is a right handed hitter with a beautiful swing. It has a similar fluid grace to Joe DiMaggio's swing. If Soto can be half the MLB player that the Yankee Clipper was, then the Reds will be quite pleased. Personally, I still don't think Soto will be able to stick at shortstop, as he already lacks good first step quickness and will likely only lose range when he inevitably adds weight to his 6'2 frame. Still, Soto is an intriguing prospect and could shoot way up this list if he continues his stellar play.

12. Danny Dorn - Dorn is one of my favorite prospects, but he's had a bit of a strange year. He suffered a knee injury early in the season, which has made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. Still, Dorn has posted a solid line of .272/.368/.474/.842, which is well down from his amazing performance at double-A last year (1.089 OPS). Even so, the on-base skills are strong and given his lack of top flight power, that is what will drive his career. Another strange aspect to Dorn's season is that the Lookouts are using him at several different positions. So far this season, he's played leftfield, rightfield, quite a bit of firstbase, and spent a lot of time at designated hitter. I'm not sure if the Reds are moving him around because they don't view him as a potential starter, so they are attempting to increase his versatility or if they are taking it easy on his injured knee. Regardless, he'd be better off starting every game in leftfield and I hope to see that happen in the near future.

13. Matt Maloney - It's been a tale of two seasons for Maloney, as he started out 2008 with very poor results. However, he's been much better as of late, which has earned him an ERA of 4.93, a whip of 1.37, and a stellar K/BB ratio of 78/28 in 84.0 innings pitched. His peripherals have been solid all year, so a large part of his struggles seem to be poor luck. His BABIP for the season is .331 and his Fielding Independent Pitching has been 3.98, which is much more impressive than his 4.93 ERA. Overall, Maloney has had a deceptively solid season and as the sample size increases his ERA and WHIP should regress to the mean. He should make his debut in Cincinnati later this summer.

14. Josh Ravin - Turning to one of my other favorite prospects, the Reds kept Ravin in extended spring training, but eventually sent him to low-A Dayton. At Dayton, Ravin has shown flashes of brilliance, but also struggled with his command. Ravin fell off of most prospect lists because of his terrible control in 2007. However, I've always loved his mechanics, which should help his command come around, and his pure stuff, so I still rate him highly. At Dayton, Ravin has posted the following: 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 24/16 in 27.0 innings. Clearly, the stuff is there, as he's striking out almost a batter an inning, but it's hard not to be disappointed in the control. However, he's young and I still wouldn't change his ranking on this list, as I'm a true believer. For me, he's definitely someone to watch. Now, if he could only find a consistent arm slot, the sky would be the limit.

15. Adam Rosales - Rosales had a very impressive spring training and he turned all of the right heads in the Reds organization. In addition, he has no longer been relegated to 1b, which is where he spent most of last season due to an elbow injury. So, with the elbow injury no longer of concern, Rosales has been able to climb back up the defensive spectrum, which has really helped him regain some of the value he lost at first base. Still, despite all these positives, Rosales has really struggled at the plate with triple-A Louisville, where he is hitting a paltry .215/.279/.318/.597. Unfortunately, he seems to have given back some of the gains he made in Spring Training. At this point, he seems to be a real long shot to be anything more than a utility infielder at the MLB level.


Well, that's how the first 15 stack up, so the next installment will feature #16-25 and the Other Notables. I'm sure you won't want to miss that!!!

Getting To Know Adam Rosales....Or, At Least His Swing

Here's a quick look at Adam Rosales at the plate.

Thanks to "farmsystem" on youtube for posting the video clip.






It's hard to argue with Adam's success as of late, but his MLB career still seems like to hinge on whether he can move back up the defensive spectrum to a more challenging defensive position. His bat is good for a middle infielder, solid for a third baseman, but below average for a first baseman.

If Rosales is over the elbow problems that precipitated his move from shortstop all the way down to first base, then maybe he can move to a defensive position where his bat will be more valuable. It'll be very interesting to see how the farm system shakes out, as the Reds are collecting a significant number of prospects who play the corner positions, so something will have to give. The 2008 season will reveal much about how things will shake out.

Top Prospect List: #15 Adam Rosales, 1b

An interesting thing happened to Adam Rosales in 2007. He went to bed one night as a shortstop and woke up the next morning as a first baseman. I'm not sure exactly when it happened or why, but it is a curious move and has a huge impact on his status as a prospect. A move from shortstop to first base is a huge slide down the defensive spectrum.

Defensive Spectrum

C--SS--2b--CF--3b--RF--LF--1b

The positions at the left end of the spectrum are more difficult than those at the right end. Accordingly, offensive production is more valuable from positions on the left end of the spectrum, as there are fewer players who can produce at the more difficult positions. Throughout the course of a player's career, he can typically slide to the right on the defensive spectrum, but rarely do players successfully move to the left on the spectrum.

Put into perspective, moving Rosales from shortstop to first base is about as far as you can fall on the defensive spectrum.

COLLEGE BALL

Rosales played for four years at Western Michigan University, following in the footsteps of such luminaries as Ribs Raney, John Vander Wal, and many others. While there, he compiled an impressive list of statistics for a shortstop, which did not go unnoticed by Reds area scout Rick Sellers, who felt that Rosales was undervalued. The Reds subsequently selected Rosales in the 12th round of the 2005 draft with the 362nd overall pick.

Rosales is 6'1, 193 lbs, throws right, and bats right. He has room to improve his strength, which would improve his projection and ceiling. Here's what he did during his four years at Western Michigan University:



PRO BALL

Rosales debuted in 2005, making a very quick impression in stops at Billings and Dayton. Between the two stops, Rosales hit a combined .325/.388/.558/.946, which quickly put him on the radar as a prospect to watch.

For his career, Rosales is hitting .285/.368/.492/.860. In 2007, he successfully made what's considered the most difficult jump in professional baseball when he hit a rock solid .278/.377/.549/.926 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 2007, Rosales saw his Isolated Power jump from .197 at High-A to .271 at Double-A. In addition, his Line Drive % jumped from 13% at High-A to 17% at Double-A. That level of performance certainly helped to solidified his prospect status after the position switch.

Rosales has demonstrated strong on base skills throughout the course of his baseball career, but the question is now whether he'll have the power necessary to be an MLB first baseman. His production would have been great at shortstop, but the baseline production at first base is much higher and there's no guarantee that Rosales will be able to reach it.

DEFENSE

Clearly, Rosales lacked the skills necessary to stick at shortstop at the professional level. However, it's difficult to understand why the Reds didn't give him an extended look at second or third. All the scouting reports indicate that he has a strong arm, good hands, and decent range. It's difficult to imagine a shortstop at the college level and early in his professional career being unable to play a more challenging position than first base.

Given those defensive skills, he seems able to handle a more challenging defensive position. The more challenging the defensive position, the more valuable the offensive production.

Offensive production that is All Star caliber at shortstop may be below average at first. The move to first base just made Rosales' job on offense that much tougher, as he'll have to improve his power output in order to make it to the majors.

FUTURE

Rosales is currently playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League where he's been playing first base and batting .289/.360/.467/.827. While those would be solid numbers for a middle infielder, they aren't likely to cut it at first base.

Rosales responded well on offensive to the move to first, posting a solid line of .286/.385/.519/.904 in 2007 at high-A Sarasota and Double A Chattanooga. While that level of production is encouraging, he'll have to continue to develop his power if he's going to remain a top prospect.

Ultimately, the switch to first base may end up robbing Rosales of a substantial portion of his value as a prospect, but he still may be able to take his offense up a notch, so for now he checks in at #15.