The Scott Rolen Experiment

I'll get this out of the way right now.

I like this deal.

I know I'm one of the few, but I like what the Reds have done here. It's not easy to restructure a roster, but the Reds have needed to do just that for years. They began the process last year by trading away Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., but finally completed it by trading away Edwin Encarnacion. He was the last player who obviously needed to go.

For far too long the Reds were built like a beer league softball team. As the new defensive metrics continue to develop, they reveal more and more the true value of defense. Unfortunately, the Reds have been locked into a 25-man roster that largely prevented them from being a good defensive team. The presence of Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Edwin Encarnacion gave the Reds no roster flexibility and no chance at fielding even a competent defensive club. Finally, with this trade, the Reds no longer have any significant defensive liabilities.

Completely restructuring a 25-man roster is a significant challenge and, at times, it can be painful, but this was a necessary move for the Reds and one that makes them a better team in 2010.

The Players

The Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart, and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. I still haven't seen the definitive word on whether money is changing hands in the deal, but if the Reds can get the Jays to pick up some of the contract then it looks more favorable for them.

Of course, the hue and cry in the Reds nation is that the Reds overpaid. Frankly, I just don't see it, as that train of thought is based on fans 1) overvaluing Edwin, 2) the prospects we gave up, or 3) both.

As it stands, Edwin simply has no trade value. In fact, in light of his escalating salary, he may have actually had negative value. When rumors of this trade were first raised in the press, it was clear that the Jays had no interest in Edwin. It's a reasonable inference that the real value in this deal for the Jays came from Stewart and Roenicke. Edwin went along for the ride to give the Reds some salary relief.

Offensive Impact

Unfortunately, Rolen isn't quite the offensive player he was once. A shoulder injury has robbed him of some of his power, but in 2009 he has made the adjustments necessary to be an effective offensive contributor. On the season, Rolen is hitting .316/.366/.471/.837 and while he has a .342 BABIP, his performance is not the result of luck, as he has a stellar linedrive rate of 24.9%. On his career, Rolen has a slash line of .284/.370/.500. And, while the big power numbers are unlikely to return, his overall production should be solid.

As for Edwin, his career slash line of .262/.344/.449/.793 has been characterized by massive slumps and never ending inconsistency. He has always appeared to have good upside, but is no closer to reaching it than when he first arrived.

If he can stay healthy, Rolen should be an upgrade on offense.

Defensive Impact

In 2009, Edwin has sunk to a whole new level on defense. I didn't think it was possible to get worse at the hot corner, but he has managed to do so. I really don't think most people appreciate just how detrimental his defense is to the performance of the team.

In 2009, Edwin has a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average) of -6.0 and a UZR/150 (UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games) of -23.1. His career UZR/150 is -12.2.

He doesn't fare any better under John Dewan's +/- system. In 2009, Edwin has a -10 rating, which translates into -8 Runs Saved. In a mere 362.1 innings, Edwin has cost the Reds 8 runs more than the average third baseman. That ranks him 30th among third basemen. Basically, he's dead last among 3b, despite having missed a significant amount of time with injury.

On the other hand, Rolen is still stellar with the leather. He's not quite what he used to be, but he remains a strong defensive third baseman.

In 2009, Rolen has a UZR of 4.8 and a UZR/150 of 7.9.

Under the +/- system, Rolen is a +18, which translates into 14 runs saved. So, he's been 14 runs better than the league average 3b.

Defensive metrics still aren't without flaw, but when the findings of one are supported by another, then you can feel more confident in what they reveal. If you look at these measures, then it seems fairly safe to say that the Reds are going to save roughly 28-30 runs on defense by going from Edwin to Rolen. Give or take, Edwin is ~15 below average, while Rolen is ~10 runs above average.

As a general rule of thumb, a win is considered to be worth ~10 runs. That number is arrived by looking at all the teams throughout baseball history who have scored one more run than they have allowed per game, and finding that they have a .600 win percentage. In addition, the teams that have allowed one more run than they score have a .400 win percentage, which means that each additional run leads to .100 additional wins.

If Scott Rolen can stay healthy and play something resembling a full season, then speaking strictly from a defensive point of view the Reds are improving in the Win column by ~2.5 wins.

Departing Prospects

Most of the complaints about the deal focus on the loss of Zach Stewart, and, to a lesser extent, Josh Roenicke.

Stewart really opened some eyes this year, as he proved to be much more than a raw, live-armed college closer. He made 14 starts between high-A and double-A ball before being promoted to triple-A, where he was shifted back to the bullpen to limit his innings pitched.

For high-A Sarasota, he posted a 2.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 32/8 K/BB in 42.1 innings pitched. In addition, Stewart had a stellar 2.42 GB/FB ratio. He was quickly promoted to double-A, where he kept on rolling. He posted a 1.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 31/10 K/BB ratio in 37.0 innings. He also continued to pile up the groundballs, posting a 1.96 GB/FB ratio.

As for Roenicke, I like him more than most. He's got a very live arm, keeps the ball down, and gives up few walks. He's an intriguing power arm with the potential to work high leverage innings. In the minors, he had a 2.57 ERA and 32/6 K/BB ratio in only 28.0 innings. Roenicke also induced his fair share of groundballs, as evidenced by his 1.60 GB/FB ratio.

Not only did both prospects have good numbers, but they also have plus stuff. Neither relied on smoke and mirrors to post their production, so these certainly were legitimate prospects with value.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, I think Rolen will have a very positive impact on the Reds in 2010. His defense alone will be a significant improvement and he should also provide the type of quality righthanded bat that we have lacked in 2009. When paired with Brandon Phillips, a healthy Scott Rolen should work to counterbalance the lefthanded bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Unfortunately, the Reds had to give up Roenicke and Stewart to acquire Rolen. I suspect that Roenicke had to be included to get the Jays to take Encarnacion. By including Edwin in the deal, the Reds save $4.75M in 2010, which effectively reduces Rolen's cost next year to $6.25M. Early reports are that the Jays are picking up the rest of Rolen's salary in 2009, so the monetary implications of the deal are fairly good for the Reds.

Of course, it would have been nice if the Reds could have acquired Rolen without giving up Roenicke or Stewart. However, given that the Reds already have a lot of good young talent on the team and in the rotation, it hardly seems unwise to deal away prospects for established veterans who can help at the MLB level. The purpose of the farm system is to support the MLB team, which can be done both by promoting prospects or by trading them away.

Stewart certainly exploded onto the scene in 2009, but to me his ceiling seems to be that of a #2 starter and he's no sure bet to reach that ceiling. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him top out as a #3 starter or even a closer. The idea that he's a future #1 starter or Cy Young winner based on a mere 14 start sample size seems more than a little overly optimistic. Personally, I wish we could have kept Josh Roenicke, as he is the more likely of the two to contribute at the big league level in 2010. Still, given the volatility of relievers, they are usually fairly easy to replace. However, I fear that may not quite be the case with Roenicke.

Ultimately, there is a great deal of inherent risk in pitching prospects and Stewart is more likely to end up a #3 starter or worse than he is a #1 starter. In addition, I still have a question or two about his mechanics, which may reduce his ability to handle a 200+ inning workload on an annual basis. To me, Stewart would have to develop into a legitimate #1/2 starter for me to lament his departure and I question his ability to do so.

Despite their recent struggles, the Reds seem rather close to being competitive. By adding a veteran righthanded bat and improving the defense at the hot corner, the Reds should be much improved in 2010. After the Rolen trade, the Reds seem to be an impact bat and a healthy pitching staff away from being a tough team to handle next season.

I'd be surprised if the Reds didn't extend Rolen's contract to keep him in Cincinnati beyond 2010, so if he can stay reasonably healthy over the next few years, then the Reds should be a much improved team. The Reds certainly gave up good talent in Roenicke and Stewart to do it, but a healthy Scott Rolen puts the Reds one step closer to a postseason birth.

Is it time to consider signing Joe Crede?

Now, I'll preface this by signing that I'm not much of a Joe Crede fan. If we were to roll the dice with a top draw defensive third baseman with limited offensive skills, then I'd put Brandon Inge well above everyone else. But, building a baseball team requires flexibility and practicality, so maybe it's time to consider someone like Joe Crede.

First, Crede would likely be inexpensive. The market for corner position players is soft, so a reasonable contract would be a real possibility. In addition, the Reds have gone on the record countless times stating that they want a right-handed bat for leftfield. Well, maybe the best option for that particular role is already on the team. Maybe, just maybe, it's Edwin Encarnacion that should be playing leftfield, which would open up third base for Joe Crede. Crede, of course, hits righthanded, so he would balance the line-up a bit more, even if he would be a poor fit to hit fourth between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

While it is undeniable that Crede doesn't have the offensive upside of some of the leftfielders being considered, he would give us a huge boost defensively, which may offset the difference in offensive value between Crede and a right-handed hitting leftfielder.

Here is Crede's Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games for the past three years:

2006: 13.0
2007: 20.4
2008: 8.2

He's had some back problems, so let's play it conservatively and say that he'll be good for 10.0 UZR/150 in 2009, which means that he's 10 runs above average on defense.

Now, here's Edwin's performance over the past 3 seasons:

2006: -13.4
2007: -15.5
2008: -11.6

Let's be generous and give Edwin his best level of performance and say he'll post a -11.5 in 2009, which means that he's 11.5 runs below average on defense.

So, the difference between the two is 21.5 runs, which works out to roughly a 2 win improvement simply by replacing an iron gloved Edwin with a quality gloved Crede. And, of course, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Edwin would be at least as capable in left as Dunn was in 2008, which means there would be no corresponding decline in leftfield defense to take into account (now, the downgrade from Dunn's bat to Crede's bat is another story, but I digress).

Unfortunately, Crede isn't much with the bat and his injury risk is a bit high, but there is improvement to be made with such a signing. In 2008, Crede's overall value to the White Sox was +18.1 runs, which makes him a 1.8 win player. His value would be higher for the Reds because of who he would be replacing, however, even standing alone Crede could prove to be a good value. The money value of a win to a team in 2009 is projected to be ~$5M. So, if Crede can produce 1.8 wins for the team, then his value to that team would be ~$9M. Given that the free agent market is soft and that Crede has a heightened injury risk, he'd likely command far less. In fact, I could see the Reds getting him for ~$5M and a starting job (roughly what he received last year), which would seem to make him a good risk and a solid acquisition, especially since he has the upside to produce more than 1.8 value wins for the Reds. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Crede signed for less than $5M, as the market on him isn't very robust these days.

In the end, I suppose it all comes down to his ability to avoid injury, but at the right price that may be a risk the Reds would be wise to consider.

Edwin Elpidio Encarnacion (Triple E???) and his Iron Glove

After watching his performance at the hot corner on Sunday, any remaining shred of confidence I had in his defensive abilities has vanished. Granted, at this point, I didn't have much left, but he is clearly never going to be even a league average third baseman.


REDS V. METS ON SUNDAY

Against the Mets on Sunday, Edwin made an error that ultimately cost the Reds the game. Edwin threw the ball away in the 10th inning, which led to two unearned runs and a loss for the Reds.

Obviously, his poor defense really hurt the team in the 10th, but Edwin also made at least two poor plays earlier in the game that put the Reds behind the eight ball. Neither will show up in the box score, but both were detrimental to their efforts to win the game.

In the top of the 2nd, the Mets had Mike Pelfrey at second and Jose Reyes at first. Argenis Reyes grounded to Edwin at third, who made a poor to Phillips at second. Phillips managed to hold the bag for the force out, but any chance at a double play was lost. That brought David Wright up to the plate with two outs and a chance to drive in a run. Edinson ultimately got the out, but it was an opportunity that the Mets likely should not have had.

In the top of the 4th, Edinson struck out Mike Pelfrey to get things started. Jose Reyes then stepped up to the plate and lined the ball into the right-center field gap. Griffey wasn't quick to the ball, but got it in to Brandon Phillips who made a weak two-hop throw to Edwin at third. Despite the slowness of Griffey in getting to the ball and the weak throw by Phillips, the Reds still had a good chance to nail Reyes at third. Unfortunately, even though the throw was on time, Edwin didn't come up with it and Reyes was safe.

Reyes ultimately scored on a sacrifice fly from David Wright, so the poor defense cost the Reds a run. Unfortunately, on this play, there were three weak links in the chain, but Edwin isn't free from blame. If he caught the ball, then Reyes would have been out and the game never would have gone to extra innings.

The box score doesn't show all the damage that Edwin causes, but it's more than we might think.


BOILING IT DOWN TO THE STATS

At this point, the realization that Edwin is a huge liability with the glove should be dawning on everyone, and yet our front office just labeled him "untouchable." We have been patient in waiting on his development, but he is already 25 and showing no signs of improvement.

John Dewan developed a fielding metric called the Plus/Minus system, which he first unveiled in The Fielding Bible. It is the metric that I like best and it is defined as follows:

"Plus/Minus, which represents the number of plays the player made, above/below the number that the average fielder would make, according to the video scouts at Baseball Info Solutions. We rate corner infielders for their handling of bunts, and middle infielders for their work on the double play. We rate outfielders for how often they threw out baserunners (“Kills”) and how often they allowed them to take the extra base. “Rank” shows the player’s ranking in a particular category among qualifying players at his position (usually around 30). Pitchers and catchers are not included."

In that spirit, let's take a look at Edwin's performance. In 2006, Edwin posted a -15 in 931.1 innings. In 2007, Edwin posted a -15 in 1168.0. In 2008, Edwin has posted a -12 in only 748.1 innings. It's debatable whether he is getting worse, but at the very least he's not getting any better.

In addition, the Plus/Minus system also grades a third baseman's performance on bunts. In 2006 Edwin was ranked 27th, in 2007 he was 19th, and so far in 2008 he is 25th.

Including today's error, Edwin has 12 throwing errors on the season and 16 overall. Joe Crede has more errors overall (19), but no third baseman has more throwing errors.


TRANSLATING DEFENSE INTO IMPACT ON THE TEAM

It's difficult to understand the impact of a player's defense on a team's W/L performance. So, Dewan provides two rules of thumb for translating the plus/minus stat into runs and then wins/losses.

1) "To estimate runs prevented, use a number that is a little less than half of the plus/minus figure."
2) "The value of a win is at about 10 runs."

So, if Edwin is a -15 at third, then that means that he allows ~7 runs, which means that his defense costs the Reds 0.7 more losses than the average third baseman. That doesn't sound so bad, but if you factor in what an elite defensive third baseman would bring to the team, then it looks a bit worse.

If you take one of my personal favorites, Brandon Inge, who is an elite defensive third baseman, he was a +27 in 2006 and a +22 in 2007. Just for simplicity sake, let's say he is a +24 third baseman. If you combine Inge's +24 with Edwin's -15, then you get a swing of 39.

Using the same two rules of thumb, that is a 19 run difference and a 1.9 difference in wins.

Now, Edwin is a better hitter than Inge, but is he 1.9 wins better with the bat? Maybe so, but he gives back much of the gains from his offensive production with his shoddy glove work.

If we want to keep Edwin's offense, then we need to move him to a less damaging position, because we just can't succeed with his glove at third. That said, if we do move him down the defensive spectrum, then the value of his production is lower, so it may be wiser to just trade him away for a player who better fits our needs.