The Scott Rolen Experiment

I'll get this out of the way right now.

I like this deal.

I know I'm one of the few, but I like what the Reds have done here. It's not easy to restructure a roster, but the Reds have needed to do just that for years. They began the process last year by trading away Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., but finally completed it by trading away Edwin Encarnacion. He was the last player who obviously needed to go.

For far too long the Reds were built like a beer league softball team. As the new defensive metrics continue to develop, they reveal more and more the true value of defense. Unfortunately, the Reds have been locked into a 25-man roster that largely prevented them from being a good defensive team. The presence of Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Edwin Encarnacion gave the Reds no roster flexibility and no chance at fielding even a competent defensive club. Finally, with this trade, the Reds no longer have any significant defensive liabilities.

Completely restructuring a 25-man roster is a significant challenge and, at times, it can be painful, but this was a necessary move for the Reds and one that makes them a better team in 2010.

The Players

The Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart, and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. I still haven't seen the definitive word on whether money is changing hands in the deal, but if the Reds can get the Jays to pick up some of the contract then it looks more favorable for them.

Of course, the hue and cry in the Reds nation is that the Reds overpaid. Frankly, I just don't see it, as that train of thought is based on fans 1) overvaluing Edwin, 2) the prospects we gave up, or 3) both.

As it stands, Edwin simply has no trade value. In fact, in light of his escalating salary, he may have actually had negative value. When rumors of this trade were first raised in the press, it was clear that the Jays had no interest in Edwin. It's a reasonable inference that the real value in this deal for the Jays came from Stewart and Roenicke. Edwin went along for the ride to give the Reds some salary relief.

Offensive Impact

Unfortunately, Rolen isn't quite the offensive player he was once. A shoulder injury has robbed him of some of his power, but in 2009 he has made the adjustments necessary to be an effective offensive contributor. On the season, Rolen is hitting .316/.366/.471/.837 and while he has a .342 BABIP, his performance is not the result of luck, as he has a stellar linedrive rate of 24.9%. On his career, Rolen has a slash line of .284/.370/.500. And, while the big power numbers are unlikely to return, his overall production should be solid.

As for Edwin, his career slash line of .262/.344/.449/.793 has been characterized by massive slumps and never ending inconsistency. He has always appeared to have good upside, but is no closer to reaching it than when he first arrived.

If he can stay healthy, Rolen should be an upgrade on offense.

Defensive Impact

In 2009, Edwin has sunk to a whole new level on defense. I didn't think it was possible to get worse at the hot corner, but he has managed to do so. I really don't think most people appreciate just how detrimental his defense is to the performance of the team.

In 2009, Edwin has a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average) of -6.0 and a UZR/150 (UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games) of -23.1. His career UZR/150 is -12.2.

He doesn't fare any better under John Dewan's +/- system. In 2009, Edwin has a -10 rating, which translates into -8 Runs Saved. In a mere 362.1 innings, Edwin has cost the Reds 8 runs more than the average third baseman. That ranks him 30th among third basemen. Basically, he's dead last among 3b, despite having missed a significant amount of time with injury.

On the other hand, Rolen is still stellar with the leather. He's not quite what he used to be, but he remains a strong defensive third baseman.

In 2009, Rolen has a UZR of 4.8 and a UZR/150 of 7.9.

Under the +/- system, Rolen is a +18, which translates into 14 runs saved. So, he's been 14 runs better than the league average 3b.

Defensive metrics still aren't without flaw, but when the findings of one are supported by another, then you can feel more confident in what they reveal. If you look at these measures, then it seems fairly safe to say that the Reds are going to save roughly 28-30 runs on defense by going from Edwin to Rolen. Give or take, Edwin is ~15 below average, while Rolen is ~10 runs above average.

As a general rule of thumb, a win is considered to be worth ~10 runs. That number is arrived by looking at all the teams throughout baseball history who have scored one more run than they have allowed per game, and finding that they have a .600 win percentage. In addition, the teams that have allowed one more run than they score have a .400 win percentage, which means that each additional run leads to .100 additional wins.

If Scott Rolen can stay healthy and play something resembling a full season, then speaking strictly from a defensive point of view the Reds are improving in the Win column by ~2.5 wins.

Departing Prospects

Most of the complaints about the deal focus on the loss of Zach Stewart, and, to a lesser extent, Josh Roenicke.

Stewart really opened some eyes this year, as he proved to be much more than a raw, live-armed college closer. He made 14 starts between high-A and double-A ball before being promoted to triple-A, where he was shifted back to the bullpen to limit his innings pitched.

For high-A Sarasota, he posted a 2.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 32/8 K/BB in 42.1 innings pitched. In addition, Stewart had a stellar 2.42 GB/FB ratio. He was quickly promoted to double-A, where he kept on rolling. He posted a 1.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 31/10 K/BB ratio in 37.0 innings. He also continued to pile up the groundballs, posting a 1.96 GB/FB ratio.

As for Roenicke, I like him more than most. He's got a very live arm, keeps the ball down, and gives up few walks. He's an intriguing power arm with the potential to work high leverage innings. In the minors, he had a 2.57 ERA and 32/6 K/BB ratio in only 28.0 innings. Roenicke also induced his fair share of groundballs, as evidenced by his 1.60 GB/FB ratio.

Not only did both prospects have good numbers, but they also have plus stuff. Neither relied on smoke and mirrors to post their production, so these certainly were legitimate prospects with value.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, I think Rolen will have a very positive impact on the Reds in 2010. His defense alone will be a significant improvement and he should also provide the type of quality righthanded bat that we have lacked in 2009. When paired with Brandon Phillips, a healthy Scott Rolen should work to counterbalance the lefthanded bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Unfortunately, the Reds had to give up Roenicke and Stewart to acquire Rolen. I suspect that Roenicke had to be included to get the Jays to take Encarnacion. By including Edwin in the deal, the Reds save $4.75M in 2010, which effectively reduces Rolen's cost next year to $6.25M. Early reports are that the Jays are picking up the rest of Rolen's salary in 2009, so the monetary implications of the deal are fairly good for the Reds.

Of course, it would have been nice if the Reds could have acquired Rolen without giving up Roenicke or Stewart. However, given that the Reds already have a lot of good young talent on the team and in the rotation, it hardly seems unwise to deal away prospects for established veterans who can help at the MLB level. The purpose of the farm system is to support the MLB team, which can be done both by promoting prospects or by trading them away.

Stewart certainly exploded onto the scene in 2009, but to me his ceiling seems to be that of a #2 starter and he's no sure bet to reach that ceiling. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him top out as a #3 starter or even a closer. The idea that he's a future #1 starter or Cy Young winner based on a mere 14 start sample size seems more than a little overly optimistic. Personally, I wish we could have kept Josh Roenicke, as he is the more likely of the two to contribute at the big league level in 2010. Still, given the volatility of relievers, they are usually fairly easy to replace. However, I fear that may not quite be the case with Roenicke.

Ultimately, there is a great deal of inherent risk in pitching prospects and Stewart is more likely to end up a #3 starter or worse than he is a #1 starter. In addition, I still have a question or two about his mechanics, which may reduce his ability to handle a 200+ inning workload on an annual basis. To me, Stewart would have to develop into a legitimate #1/2 starter for me to lament his departure and I question his ability to do so.

Despite their recent struggles, the Reds seem rather close to being competitive. By adding a veteran righthanded bat and improving the defense at the hot corner, the Reds should be much improved in 2010. After the Rolen trade, the Reds seem to be an impact bat and a healthy pitching staff away from being a tough team to handle next season.

I'd be surprised if the Reds didn't extend Rolen's contract to keep him in Cincinnati beyond 2010, so if he can stay reasonably healthy over the next few years, then the Reds should be a much improved team. The Reds certainly gave up good talent in Roenicke and Stewart to do it, but a healthy Scott Rolen puts the Reds one step closer to a postseason birth.

Baseball America on Travis Wood and Zach Stewart

Here's an interesting and encouraging read from Baseball America on two Reds' pitching prospects who have really emerged in 2009.

I was optimistic on Wood's chances heading into the season, but his performance is beyond anyone's expectations. His success is due in part to scrapping his curveball in favor of a cutter, which has emerged as a nice weapon against righthanded hitters. Hopefully it has enough movement to offset the loss of a true breaking ball. For now, he is using his three pitch mix to great effect and should be looking at a promotion to triple-A in the near future.

As for Stewart, he's always had a big fastball and the ability to overpower hitters, but he seemed destined to be fast tracked to the majors as a reliever. Now, the Reds would be ill advised to try to develop him as anything other than a starting pitcher. If he struggles as a starter, then relief is a nice fall back plan for him, but now is the time to just sit back and enjoy the ride. While the cutter has been the key to Wood's success, the development of the changeup has been huge for Stewart.

Both have taken big steps forward in 2009 and hopeful it continues into the future. Anyway, here's the article.

Monday Dish: Stewart, Wood Give Mudcats A Pair Of Aces

Posted Jun. 22, 2009 11:17 am by J.J. Cooper
Filed under: Daily Dish

If you’re looking for the minors’ best one-two punch of starting pitchers this year, you’d probably be surprised to find them in Zebulon, N.C. In Travis Wood and Zach Stewart, the Carolina Mudcats have two starters in the top 10 in ERA in the minors. Wood leads all minor leaguers with a 1.36 ERA.

It’s hard to imagine a more unlikely devastating duo. A year ago, Wood had the worst ERA (7.09) of any pitcher in the Southern League with 75 or more innings. Stewart was closing out games in high Class A Sarasota, seemingly on a fast track to a spot in the Reds’ bullpen. Together, they’ve been the best one-two combo in the Southern League—if not all the minors.

Wood saw a 22 scoreless inning streak snapped in his start last Thursday, but he’s still continued to roll. He’s holding hitters to a .194 average with 75 strikeouts and 32 walks in 86 innings. More impressively, he’s fixed some early season command problems and has walked only three batters in his last 27 innings after walking 29 in his first 59 innings.

He’s a skinny 5-foot-11, 22-year-old lefthander whose 87-88 mph fastball is complemented by one of the minors’ best changeups. He can touch 92 with his fastball at times, but his calling card is his outstanding changeup that combines excellent deception with late sink. But those two pitches have been there all along. He’s shelved a fringy curveball and replaced it with an 82-84 cutter, which already is significantly better than the curveball ever was.

"He has the cutter that comes into righties and makes that changeup all the more effective," pitching coach Rigo Beltran said. "It’s a pitch he can throw with a high percentage of strikes that looks like a fastball that he can throw in fastball counts. He’s able to get in that kitchen and keep the ball off the barrel of the bat."

Without a third pitch, Wood, a second-round pick from Bryant (Ark.) High in ’05, was forced too often to throw his fastball when hitters were looking for it. Now he can keep hitters—especially righthanders—off balance. He added the cutter last year, but this year he’s learned how to command it and throw it for strikes.

But that’s not the only change. Last year, and even early this year, Wood was struggling at times with his fastball command. But he’s gained a much better feel as the season has gone along.

Stewart (1.70 ERA this year overall) has matched Wood pitch-for-pitch since he was promoted to Carolina on May 22. He’s allowed only four earned runs in 32 innings since his promotion. Stewart was supposed to be the Reds closer of the future. Drafted in the third round last year out of Texas Tech, Stewart started the year as the Red Raiders’ closer but moved to the rotation late in the college season. After the Reds drafted him, they moved him back to the pen, where he went 1-4, 1.09 in 33 innings. But this year he went back into the rotation, partly to give him more innings and partly to help him work on his secondary stuff.

But the move to the rotation hasn’t just given him steady innings, it’s also allowed him to develop his changeup, something he used only rarely out of the pen. Now it’s developed into a solid third pitch.

"He definitely trusts (the changeup)," Beltran said. "He throws it in counts that I didn’t think he would because he believes in it. He’s worked on it since he’s been here. He had a little cut to it, not he’s getting more sink to it, which is what we want."

The development of the changeup gives Stewart, 22, a third option to go with an average slider and a plus fastball. Stewart’s calling card is his 93-94 mph fastball that combines velocity with plenty of sink. It’s not a strikeout pitch, but it does an excellent job of inducing groundballs.

"That sinker inside is devastating when you’re throwing 90-94 with that kind of movement," Beltran said. "I really haven’t seen anyone turn on it. Even when he misses, he misses off the plate."

Since becoming a pro, Stewart has gone 5-5, 1.51 in 107 innings. He’s had success both as a starter and a reliever. Because of that his big league options are wide open. According to farm director Terry Reynolds, the Reds aren’t going to pigeonhole Stewart, as they like the fact that he has the versatility to fill either role.

Zach Stewart Blowing Everyone Away

In the Reds organization, one the brightest lights of the 2009 season is Zach Stewart.

Stewart was drafted out of Texas Tech, where he worked primarily as a closer, but did log some time as the team's Friday night starter. When they drafted him, it seemed likely that the Reds envisioned him as a polished reliever who could move quickly up the ladder. Even if that's the role they envisioned for Stewart, they still put him in the starting rotation to start the season. It could be a sign that the Reds view him as a starter or it could be nothing more than a development strategy.

Many organizations decide to use all of their best pitching prospects as starting pitchers, even if some ultimately project as being relievers. This is a player development strategy that allows the prospect to work long outings, develop additional pitches for their arsenal, and get regular work between starts. The main advantage is the last one, as prospects who work as relievers are unable to get consistent work in between appearances as they never know when they will be called on to pitch in the game. Regardless of the reason why he's in the rotation, now that he's there he may never relinquish the role.

Stewart went to high-A Sarasota to start the season where he was truly overpowering. In 42.1 innings and 7 starts, Stewart posted a 2.13 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio, 2.42 GB/FB ratio, and a 1.30 WHIP. He still features a nasty fastball and a hard biting slider, but as a starter he is working on a third pitch: his change-up. His slider always had plus potential, but early reports on it have been very strong. The other obvious plus in his early season performance is just how many ground balls he is inducing. His fastball has good sinking action to it and hitters are beating the ball into the ground, which is a big plus considering that he'll soon be pitching in the launching pad that is Great American Ballpark.

His stellar early season performance for Sarasota recently earned him a promotion to double-A Carolina. He quickly proved that he brought his success with him, as he has yet to allow a run in his first two starts. In 11.0 innings, Stewart has a 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10/2 K/BB, and a 3.20 GB/FB ratio. Even though the jump from high-A to double-A is often considered the most difficult jump in the professional ranks, Stewart was clearly unfazed.

Stewart made a start tonight which was notable in two respects: 1) He didn't allow a run and 2) he only pitched 4.0 innings. It's unclear why Stewart worked in only 4.0 innings, as he threw 7 in his double-A debut and was cruising tonight, so hopeful it's not an injury. I still worry that he may be a bit of a heightened injury due to his power stuff and pitching mechanics.

Here are a couple of photos of Stewart pitching for Sarasota (courtesy of Jim Donten) which were taken on April 22, 2009 when Stewart faced the Charlotte Stone Crabs.











In the photo on the right, you can see that Stewart's plant foot is on the ground, but his pitching arm is not yet up in throwing position. A general rule of thumb is that the pitching arm should be up in throwing position when the stride is completed. Here, the arm seems to be a bit late, which could add additional stress to the arm. If the body isn't completely in sync, then the arm may have to carry more of the stress generated by the already unnatural act that is pitching. Hopefully, this isn't something that will hinder Stewart, but it does seem like his arm is still slightly lagging behind in his delivery.

So far, Stewart's 2009 season has been an unqualified success. Given the lack of impact pitching prospects in the system, it's rather obvious that Stewart should be given every opportunity to prove his ability to handle a starting role. The Reds will likely select a pitcher in the 1st round of the upcoming draft, but for now Stewart is running neck and neck with J.C. Sulbaran for the title of best pitching prospect in the system.

2009 Top Prospect List: #15 Zach Stewart, rhp

Zach Stewart
Height 6-2, Weight 205, B/T: R/R, DOB: 09/28/1986
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: Not Ranked

Zach Stewart is one of the promising power relief arms in the Reds farm system. It's a testament to the renewed strength of the Reds farm system that they have so many intriguing relievers. To me, the old axiom that "relievers are failed starters" rings true. If you don't have quality starting pitching prospects in the system, then those prospects better suited to relief will still be used as starting pitchers. Once you get quality starting pitching prospects, then the lesser prospects can be shifted to relief roles. As for Stewart, the Reds were able to keep him in the relief role that he filled in college and may advance him quickly through the farm system.

COLLEGIATE CAREER AND REPERTOIRE

Stewart spent three years in college, spending time at three separate universities. Stewart distinguished himself at Texas Tech, after stints at North Central Texas College and a semester at Angelo State University. Scouts were impressed by Stewart, despite the fact that he only posted a 4.98 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 43/21 K/BB ratio in 47.0 innings. Clearly, a 4.0 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 aren't bad ratios, but they're hardly eye-popping. Obviously, it was the live arm that impressed the scouts.

Stewart features two primary pitches: a heavy fastball that sits in the 95-97 mph range and an average slider with plus potential. His fastball also has good movement, which improves its effectiveness. Scouts rate him as having plus control, but his walk rates seem to suggest otherwise. It may well be that he has plus command of his fastball, but mediocre command of his slider. Obviously, a larger sample size will reveal more about his control.

In addition, scouts are impressed with his demeanor on the mound, believing that he may have the right temperament to work high leverage innings. The Reds have Francisco Cordero under control through at least 2011 and an option for 2012, but scouts believe that Stewart profiles well as a closer in the future.

DRAFT STATUS AND 2008 SEASON

The Reds selected Stewart with the 84th overall pick in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. Personally, I found the selection a bit curious, as college relievers are often more volatile and lower ceiling than other prospects. In addition, the Reds didn't have a second round draft pick, so it would seem to be more advisable to select a prospect with higher upside. That said, the selection did get good reviews from Baseball America, so only time will tell.

After the Reds signed Stewart, they sent him to low-A Dayton, where he was stellar. He posted a 0.55 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 13/3 K/BB ratio in 16.1 innings. He clearly dominated, but realistically speaking he should perform well against that level of competition. His dominance earned him a promotion to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Stewart posted a 1.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 23/11 K/BB ratio in 16.2 innings. Obviously, he had no difficulty with class A ball competition, but he wasn't quite as good as it may seem. At Dayton, his FIP was 2.45 and at Sarasota it was 2.60. So, in actuality, he was very good, but not outstanding.

To me, there are two questions on Stewart. 1) How good is his control? 2) How much of his 2008 success was achieved simply by overwhelming a lower level of competition with a plus fastball? The answers to those questions will determine just how successful he'll be in 2009 against more advanced competition and just how quickly he'll arrive at the MLB level.

MECHANICS

Stewart is reputed to have pretty clean mechanics. However, after taking a second and third look, a few potential red flags jump out at me. But, let's start off with the good. First off, Stewart has a smooth delivery and a free-and-easy arm action. Despite his high velocity, he's not a max-effort type pitcher. He has a strong leg kick that includes some coiling of the body and bringing his knee up to his chest.

Unfortunately, the free-and-easy arm action comes with a cost. The reason his arm action looks so syrupy smooth is that it's long in the back. After he breaks his hands, he's slow to get his arm up into throwing position. Part of the reason for this is that he gets his throwing elbow up a bit too high, bringing it up above shoulder level. This arm action forces his arm to lag behind, as it takes longer to bring it up to throwing position. The general rule is that a pitcher should have his pitching arm up into throwing position when the plant foot lands. That's not the case with Stewart, whose long arm action can cause his pitching arm to lag behind and not be in proper position when his plant foot lands. In fact, at times his pitching arm is almost parallel to the ground when his plant foot lands (Stewart's arm action is similar to that of Anthony Reyes in this photo, though less extreme. You can see that Reyes' plant foot is down and that his pitching arm is still almost parallel to the ground. Also, his pitching elbow is above shoulder level). The lag adds stress to the arm and hinders his ability to maximize the power generated by his leg drive. Accordingly, instead of throwing with his entire body, he throws more with just his arm, which is the more stressful way to generate velocity.

Overall, Stewart has the potential for an increased risk of injury over the course of his career. Fortunately, Stewart's role as a reliever will limit his workload and help prevent injury.

You can see his MLB draft scouting video here.

CONCLUSION

Stewart is an intriguing power arm. Unfortunately, he comes with several significant question marks. His mechanics may increase his injury risk and he may not be able to effectively command his secondary stuff. It'll be interesting to see how he fares in a larger sample size against more advanced competition. For now, Stewart checks in at #15, but given his dual risk, both performance and injury, I have a few doubts about his future. That said, he has a very live power arm and could advance quickly up the ladder if he demonstrates good command.

Checking up on the Day 1 Draft Picks

The Reds have had time to sign and assign several of their first day draft picks, some of whom have made impressive debuts. All teams have until August 15th to sign their draft picks, after which time unsigned players go back into the draft pool for the 2009 draft.

Pick #7 Yonder Alonso

Yonder has yet to sign, as his team's time in Omaha at the College World Series has delayed the signing process. However, thanks to my Stanford Cardinal, Yonder and the Miami Hurricanes were bounced fairly early from the tournament, so contract negotiations should be well under way. Still, sometimes high first round draft picks don't sign until the other high picks starting signing to set the market. It creates a kind of domino effect, but the Rays signing #1 overall pick Tim Beckham for a reported signing bonus of $6.5M should help speed the process along.

Professional Debut Grade: Incomplete


Pick #84 Zach Stewart

The Reds signed Stewart to his first professional contract and assigned him to low-A Dayton. Despite vaulting over the rookie leagues entirely, Stewart has posted very good numbers in the early going. In 6.0 innings for Dayton, Stewart has allowed 1 hit and 0 runs. In addition, he boasts a 3/0 K/BB ratio and a 2.75 GB/FB ratio, which is what Reds fans want to see.

Stewart was a closer out of Texas Tech, so his polish was part of what got him drafted. Still, if he can have early success at Dayton, then he could possibly move very quickly up the ranks. He throws a heavy ball and hopefully he can continue to rack up the groundball outs.

So far, so good.

Professional Debut Grade: A


Pick #119 Tyler Cline

The Reds have signed Tyler Cline to a professional deal and assigned him to the rookie league Golf Coast League Reds, where he will play under manager Pat Kelly.

He's a big kid at 6'2" and 215 lbs. He works with a low 90s fastball, a slurvy curveball, and a decent changeup.

Given his build and age, I would say that this is a pure projection pick by the Reds. Cline has the build of a power pitcher and reads are probably dreaming on what he could become. Cline wasn't well known heading into this draft, so it'll be interesting to see what he brings to the table.

Professional Debut Grade: Incomplete


Pick #149 Clayton Shunick

Shunick is under contract and was sent to rookie league Billings, where he is pitching for the Mustangs. Shunick seems the opposite of Cline, as he is a pitcher who is fairly polished, but seemingly lacking much projection. His mechanics are rather unorthodox and could become problematic as he advances up the ranks.

At Billings, Shunick has had a bit of a rough start. In 8.0 innings, Shunick has given up 12 hits, posted a 7/2 K/BB ratio, a 6.75 ERA, and a 1.75 WHIP. Given that he's only given up 2 walks and 1 homer, it seems likely that his numbers will improve in a hurry. Nothing to worry about at this point, but given his polish and the level of competition, it's far from an ideal debut.

Professional Debut Grade: C-


Pick #179 Alexander Buchholz

Now, here is a guy to watch. I've got a fairly good feeling about Alex and think he could be an interesting prospect. He strikes me as a Chris Valaika type. A good hitter who may lack the glove to handle shortstop. Still, a middle infielder who can rake is worth his weigh in gold. And, that's pretty much all Buchholz has done so far in his professional career.

The Reds got him under contract and sent him to Billings right along with Shunick. At Billings, Buchholz has demonstrated the good offensive potential that made him the #179th overall pick. In 25 ABs, Buchholz has posted a line of .400/.483/.560/1.043. He has 2 doubles, 1 triple, and a 4/3 K/BB ratio.

It's difficult to imagine a better way to start your professional career.

Professional Debut Grade: A+

Reds Day 1 Draft Picks

The first 6 rounds are in the books and the Reds came away with 5 players after forfeiting their second round pick as compensation for signing Francisco Cordero.

Pick #7 Yonder Alonso

The Reds threw a curveball and selected Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso. They had been rumored to select University of Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham.

Alonso is an interesting choice for Reds for a couple of reasons. The Reds in recent years have really focused on drafting players at the premier defensive positions, so selecting a defensively challenged first baseman certainly breaks this trend. In addition, selecting a first baseman is an interesting choice given the presence of Joey Votto on the roster. Of course, selecting the best player available is usually a good idea, but one wonders what will happen in a couple of seasons when Alonso is ready for the big leagues. Given Alonso's stunning lack of foot speed, it would appear that Votto will have to shift to leftfield or a trade will be necessary.

One good thing to like about Yonder is his plate discipline. He has a very advanced approach at the plate and should draw a lot of walks. Of course, that's almost a necessity in his case, because he can't run. Still, Alonso should be an impact offensive player and hopefully an adequate defensive player. He wouldn't have been my first choice, but the Reds deserve the benefit of the doubt after a couple of stellar drafts.

Pick #84 Zach Stewart

The Reds took Zach Stewart in the 3rd round. Stewart was the closer at Texas Tech where he featured a heavy fastball that sat in 95-97 mph range. He also had an average slider that has plus potential. In addition, he has very good control.

Stewart has clean mechanics and good body control. He works from a three quarter arm slot, which gives him good movement on his pitches.

College closers have become very trendy, but this is an interesting choice for the Reds. Given that they forfeited their second round pick, one would think that they would opt for a prospect with a higher upside. The best case scenario for Stewart and the Reds would seem to be pitching ~65 innings a year at the MLB level.

Maybe it'll work out well, but given that Tim Melville, Tim Murphy, Petey Paramore, and Brandon Crawford were still available, Stewart is a curious choice.

Pick #119 Tyler Cline

Tyler Cline stands 6'2" and weighs 220 lbs. The Reds picked him out of Cass High School in Georgia. The Reds scouts must have worked overtime on this one, as there isn't much information out there on Cline.

Pick #149 Clayton Shunick

Clayton Shunick was drafted out of North Carolina State. He is a junior, stands 6'01", and weighs 175 lbs.

Shunick has an unorthodox arm action. After he breaks his arms, he drops his pitching arm down and then brings it up in a circular type motion. However, he seems to have an unusual action with his pitching hand on his arm swing. His pitching arm stays in too close to his body in large part because of how he is holding the ball at this point.

You can actually see a bit of this in this photo: His pitching arm is too low and close to his body, because his pitching hand is somewhat cocked, which means that he is actually holding the ball higher than his forearm. If he would relax his hand and let the ball hang below his forearm, then his upper arm would automatically shift away from the body and bring his pitching arm into more of a straight line with his glove arm. This would also give him a more natural and fluid delivery. At this point in the delivery, most pitchers hold the ball and pitching hand below the rest of the arm, which, if he did this, would put Shunick in better position to bring his arm up into his pitching slot.

To be honest, I'm not even sure how Shunick can get into position to throw the ball from this position. If you hold your arm out like he is and cock your wrist back like he does, I'm not sure how you can get your arm up and into position to throw. The muscles just don't seem to work that way. It's pretty unnatural, especially if in comparison you again hold your arm out like he is, but this time let the hand dip below the rest of the arm. The arm muscles shift and everything just feels more natural.

Given the point he is at in his windup and the ball position, I'm not sure he's able to get his arm up into a good arm slot in time to throw the pitch, which can't help but put significant additional stress on the shoulder.

All in all, Shunick seems to lack top notch stuff and throws with unorthodox mechanics. However, it's difficult to argue with the results.

In 2008, Shunick went 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA in 95.2 innings. He worked almost exclusively as a starter and posted a 108/23 K/BB ratio. Opponents only hit a paltry .215 against him.

Shunick doesn't look very impressive in action, but his stats indicate otherwise. It'll be interesting to see which is the real Shunick.

Pick #179 Alexander Buchholz

Alexander Buchholz is a shortstop out of University of Delaware. He stands 6'0" and weighs 185.

Buchholz hit .319 for the Fightin' Blue Hens. For his career, he has a .366 batting average, 34 homers, and 161 RBI.

Interestingly enough, the Reds have now selected 3 University of Delaware prospects in the last 2 drafts. Buchholz joins Brandon Menchaca and Mike McGuire.

Buchholz is an interesting prospect, as a middle infielder with good pop in his bat.


All in all, an interesting, if not overwhelmingly impressive first batch of prospects. Hopefully the Reds step it up and find a few quality prospects in tomorrow's portion of the draft.