Jeff Keppinger for Drew Sutton

Seemingly tired of his inconsistency and with players from the farm system making him redundant, the Reds recently shipped Jeff Keppinger to the Astros for infield prospect Drew Sutton.

It hasn't taken long for Keppinger to impress his new squad, as he's off to a .435/.500/.739/1.239 start with the Houston Astros. Obviously, that's not a sustainable level of production, who long ago established his performance baseline. Keppinger is an early count, high contact hitter without much pop. He provides some defensive versatility, but his defensive value can accurately be described as being a "jack of all trades, but a master of none."

In addition, as his service time increases, Keppinger salary also increases, so the Reds were obviously looking to shed salary and trade Keppinger's value for a younger model. Despite his hot start, it's clear what the Astros received in the deal, but what exactly did the Reds get?

DREW SUTTON

The Astros selected Drew Sutton 454th overall pick in the 15th round of the 2004 draft. Sutton was drafted out of Baylor University where he posted a line of .304/.387/.480/.867 with 8 homers and a 41/32 K/BB ratio.












Sutton is a switch hitter who, at 6-3, is tall for a middle infielder. He has a long, lean body type and moves gracefully in the field with long strides. At the plate, Sutton uses a wider than shoulder width stance and still takes a small forward stride to transfer his weight and spread out even further. Sutton hits from an upright position with a high back elbow and gets good extension in his swing, which has a slight uppercut and produces line drives at a good rate.

As for his hitting approach, he has good control of the strike zone and isn't afraid to let the ball travel deep in the zone. Sutton draws walks at a very good clip, but also generally makes solid contact when he offers at the pitch.





In the field, Sutton is very versatile. Unfortunately, that's probably as much a result of his inability to master one position as it is his ability to play multiple positions. His range is rather stretched at shortstop and his bat probably doesn't play well at third, but his ultimate ceiling is that of an offensive minded second baseman who provides league average defense. Even if he doesn't reach his ceiling, Sutton could still prove to be a valuable utility player off the bench.

2008

Last year, Sutton really put it together and posted his best season as a professional. For double-A Corpus Christi, Sutton posted a stellar slash line of .317/.408/.523/.931 with 20 homeruns and a 98/76 K/BB ratio in 606 plate appearances. That type of production would make him one of the top middle infield prospects in baseball, but it needs context to be evaluated properly. In 2008, Sutton was repeating double-A after posting a .269/.351/.388/.738 with 9 homeruns and an 86/57 K/BB ratio in 558 plate appearances. In addition, Sutton was 25 years old, which made him a bit old for his level, so that cannot be discounted.

Still, Corpus Christi is a fairly neutral park, so Sutton was still impressive. The power numbers get a bit of a boost in Corpus Christi, but Sutton earned his production with a rock solid 22% line drive rate. His stellar season came just in time to reinvigorate his prospect status, as his star was fading fast.

Conclusion

In his career, Sutton has a .282/.377/.441/.818 slash line. It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2009, as Sutton has started his Reds career off with triple-A Louisville and his performance will provide an important data point.

At this point, if I had to rank him, I'd probably slot Drew Sutton in at #21 just below Zack Cozart. If he can build off of his stellar 2008 season, then he could still prove to be a starter at the big league level. However, his age and league average (at best) defense will work against him, and may ironically leave him with a career similar to that of Jeff Keppinger. Even so, it was a good acquisition by the Reds, as middle infielders with plus on-base skills don't grow on trees and Keppinger simply no longer had a defined role with the Reds.

A Closer Look at Dallas Buck

Oddly enough, Dallas Buck's baseball skills may be best defined by his time playing a different sport. Buck attended Oregon State and spent two years playing defensive back and special teams for the Beaver football team. That speaks to both his athleticism and his mindset, which carries over to the diamond.


COLLEGIATE CAREER AND DRAFT STATUS

Buck had a very good career at Oregon State, but his junior season was hampered by an arm injury. Buck still maintains the football player mentality and refused to shut it down, as he did not want to let his teammates down in their quest for a College World Series Championship. He battled through the season and maintained a high level of performance despite diminished velocity.

The diminished velocity and fear of injury caused a hit on his draft status, as he was a projected first round pick before his junior year. The Diamondbacks selected Buck in the third round (two picks after the Reds selected Chris Valaika) and a subsequent physical exam uncovered the expected injury: a partial tear in the ulnar collateral ligament. Buck was likely to need Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.


PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Despite the likelihood that surgery would be necessary, the Diamondbacks agreed to let Buck attempt to rehab the injury. In 2007, Buck started out his professional career at high-A ball, where he posted a respectable 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and 8.1 K/9 in 97.2 innings. He also demonstrated impressive groundball tendencies, as he posted a GB/FB ratio of 2.28.

Ultimately, he had to shut it down after 16 starts and undergo Tommy John Surgery in August. Buck made a fairly quick recovery and has already logged 63.2 innings in 2008. In that span, Buck has posted a 3.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 37/15 K/BB ratio, and a stellar 2.23 GB/FB ratio.

After his acquisition, the Reds sent Buck to high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a 4.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9/4 K/BB ratio, and 4.00 GB/FB ratio in 13.0 innings.


REPERTOIRE

As a sophomore, Buck's fastball sat in the 88-91 range and touched up to 94 on occasions. As a junior, his velocity dropped into the mid-80s, which was a clear sign that he was having arm trouble. However, his fastball has always had very good sink and he uses it to induce a ton of groundballs. Buck also features an average slider and an improving change-up.

In attempting to pitch through the injury in 2007, Buck was working without his good stuff. The UCL tear sapped his velocity and he was only throwing 86-88 mph with a lot of effort. The impressive thing is that despite working without his best stuff, Buck STILL managed to be successful. To me, that signifies an ability to pitch, not just throw. A lot of younger pitching prospects just rely on their pure stuff, but really don't know how to use it. Buck, obviously knows how to pitch. In addition to demonstrating the ability to succeed without his best stuff, Buck actually managed to impress scouts with his change-up.

In 2008, despite being healthy, Buck again is pitching without his best velocity, but again is finding success. The usual rehab time on Tommy John is 10-12 months, but the pitcher often isn't the same until the season after he comes back. So, Buck should finally be at full strength for the first time in his professional career in 2009.


MECHANICS

Buck doesn't have the cleanest mechanics, but they are functional. The athleticism that allowed him to play college football also allows him to repeat his delivery and maintain good body control.

Following the modern trend, Buck starts his windup by moving his glove side ("GS") foot slightly forward and towards first base, as opposed to the old style of starting the wind-up by stepping back towards second base. After he plants his glove side foot, he"un-weights" his pitching arm side ("PAS") foot and rotates it on the rubber.

In keeping with the modern pitching style, he only brings his hands up to his chest, not over his head as used to be traditional. Buck has a high leg kick and brings his leg up well past parallel. In his leg kick, he coils his lower body to store up energy. When his leg kick is at its highest point, Buck breaks his hands and begins to drive towards the plate. Buck really seems to get a good push off the rubber and uses his legs to drive his body towards the plate. A strong leg drive can help incorporate the entire body into the throwing motion, which can alleviate some of the stress that can be created by more of a "falling off the rubber" style pitching motion.

After Buck drives off the rubber, he plants his GS foot slightly to the third base side of mound. By planting his foot closer to third than normal, Buck is forced to throw slightly across his body. He utilizes a high three-quarter arm slot and uses a clean arm action, but this type of cross-fire action can lead to increased stress on the arm. In Buck's case, it isn't a significant cross-fire, but it's there. Another by product of the cross-fire throwing action is that it forces him to fall off to the first base side of the mound on his follow through. His pitching momentum is heading slightly towards first base to offset his somewhat closed body position, so his body naturally follows the momentum after he delivers the pitch.

You can access his scouting video here.

Buck's mechanics certainly aren't the prettiest or cleanest around, but they do seem functional. He doesn't have any big red flags in his motion or arm action, but he does throw with some effort. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay healthy, as there isn't anything significant in his motion that indicates a heightened injury risk.


SUMMARY

The Reds won't quite know what they have in Dallas Buck until the 2009 season, as that's when he'll finally be at full strength. However, even at less than full strength he is already demonstrating some positives. His athleticism gives him good body control, his football experience gives him a warrior mentality, and his fastball has very good late sink.

While it is too soon to tell, Buck could be a very nice addition to the organization and he seems to be the type of player the Reds need. One who gets the most out of his skills and puts the needs of the team before his own needs. If Buck gets back to full strength, then he could be just the type of the player this organization has long needed.

The Emergence: Daryl Thompson

A funny thing happened in 2008. Daryl Thompson finally arrived.

Thompson came over to the Reds in the now infamous Trade with the Washington Nationals. Thompson came over with Billy Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and Gary Majewski for Felipe Lopez, Ryan Wagner, and Austin Kearns. While the Reds will always be losers in that deal, the possible emergence of Thompson could make it a much easier pill to swallow.

DRAFT SLOT AND AMATEUR CAREER

Thompson stands 6'0" tall, weighs 180 lbs, bats right, and throws right.

The Nationals (more specifically, the Expos) selected Thompson in the 8th round of the 2003 draft with the 237th overall pick. Thompson attended La Plata High School, where he went 5-1 with a 1.30 ERA, struck out 80, walked 15, and allowed only 23 hits in 46.0 innings. To top it off, he posted a solid .370 batting average, proving that he could handle the bat a little bit as well.

Thompson has a free and easy delivery, good athleticism, and a quick arm. His arm slot is between an overhand and 3/4 delivery, which gives his fastball good boring action. Even though he had a good feel for pitching and good stuff coming out of high school, his development with the Expos/Nationals was slowed by a shoulder injury. He was still rehabbing the injury when he was dealt to the Reds.

MINOR LEAGUE PERFORMANCE

In 2007, Thompson actually had a solid season. At high-A ball Sarasota, Thompson posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 97/31 K/BB ratio in 105.0 innings. While those are fairly impressive numbers, Thompson failed to crack either Baseball America's Top 30 Prospects or my own top 25 Prospect List (he landed in my "Other Notables" section) because of concerns about his velocity.

In 2005, Thompson suffered a torn labrum and ended up missing a year and a half of development time. The success rate for surgeries to repair torn labrums is much lower than that of Tommy John surgeries. In addition, all reports on him from 2007 indicated that he had yet to regain his pre-injury stuff.

Prior to the injury, Thompson featured a 92-94 mph fastball, an average change-up, and an average curveball that had the potential to be a plus pitch. His curveball has tight rotation and a quick, downward break. In 2007, he struggled to match his former velocity, reaching only 92 at his peak and struggling to sustain his velocity into the later innings.

However, Thompson has exploded back onto the scene in 2008. He is now reaching 94 mph again and demonstrating good feel for his curveball. In addition, Mario Soto has once again worked his magic in imparting the secret to an effective change-up and this time Thompson was the beneficiary. Soto has been a tremendous asset to the player development department, as he has had very good success in teaching pitching prospects how to throw the change-up. Thanks in part to Soto, Thompson's change-up has become one of his most effective pitches.

In 55.1 innings for double-A Chattanooga, Thompson has posted a 1.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a stellar 49/14 K/BB ratio. He has been very impressive and it's not luck. He has a .269 BABIP and a 2.45 FIP, so while he is likely to regress a bit from that lofty level of performance, his performance has been just about as good as the numbers indicate.

Another thing that helped Thompson's development was facing big leaguers in spring training. He pitched 2.1 innings in spring training and struck out 4 of the 7 hitters he faced, including Hideki Matsui. That experience has given Thompson renewed confidence in his ability to succeed. It's a confidence that he now brings out to the mound with him every time he works.

FUTURE

At this point, it'll be very interesting to see how Thompson progresses. He now seems fully recovered from injury and is pitching very, very well. The Reds minor league system has grown by leaps and bounds, but the knock on system has been that it is not very deep. Some scouts have expressed an opinion that there are some impact players like Bruce, Bailey, and Cueto, but not much depth behind the top tier. Some have expressed a belief that the system would fall off after that crop had graduated to the big leagues. However, players like Thompson are stepping up to fill the void and are poised to form the next wave of top prospects in the Cincinnati system.

At this point, the future is once again bright for Daryl Thompson, which is very good news for the Reds and fans of the team.

Kyle Lotzkar and Offseason Workouts

I just came across this news story about Reds pitching prospect Kyle Lotzkar and thought I'd share it. Evidently, Lotzkar is working out at Advanced Athletics, which given the accents, I would say is back in Lotzkar's home country of Canada.

Thanks to "stabilizertraining" on youtube for originally posting the news clip.





It appears that Lotzkar has a very good work ethic and a real dedication to improvement, both of which are great attributes for prospects. Especially given his age, Lotzkar seems to have a good head on his shouders and maturity beyond his years. All too often, you see sublimely talented prospects who fail to get the most out of their natural ability, but thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case with Lotzkar.

I still have some concerns about his mechanics and his repertoire, but at least he's serious about his offseason workouts. I have to wonder if the Reds as an organization wouldn't benefit from implementing a "pre-hab" program for their pitchers similar to what the Oakland A's and others have done. However, until that time, we have to hope that Lotzkar's offseason workout program will improve his velocity and decrease his injury risk.

It'll be a very interesting 2008 season for a number of the Reds prospects. The 2008 season is "moving day" in the Reds organization, so it'll be interesting to see who rises and who falls.

Rising from the Ashes: John Hudgins

I don't imagine this post will be of interest to most, but it's one I'm compelled to make as a card carrying member of the John Hudgins fan club.

Hudgins is my all-time favorite college pitcher, due to his stellar work at Stanford University, but he vanished off the face of the baseball map in 2007. When a player's prospect status slips away, the media coverage slips away as well. It becomes difficult to find out much information on him, despite a fairly in-depth bit of research.

When he went missing in 2007, I had feared that he had decided to hang it up when he seemed to be on the verge of reaching the big league level, but in actuality he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2007 season. However, Hudgins arrived back in the professional ranks in time for the Arizona Fall League. Perhaps not unexpectedly, he performed poorly in limited work, but ultimately what's important is that he made it back on the mound.

Hudgins had an epic 2003 college baseball season. He went 14-3 with a 2.99 ERA, striking out 143 hitters in 165.1 innings pitched. In addition, he won Most Outstanding Player in the College World Series, where he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 24.0 innings. His final outing of his collegiate career was a gritty performance on only three days rest. He scattered 10 hits and allowed 3 runs with 5 strikeouts in 7.0 innings to earn the victory in an 8-3 win over Rice.

In the professional ranks, Hudgins has a career 4.13 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and a 8.2 K/9. Hudgins lacks top notch stuff, but he's a very cerebral pitcher and does have a plus changeup. He has an innate understanding of how to pitch and uses that knowledge to keep hitters off-balance. To succeed, he really has to out-think the hitters and he is fully capable of doing so. A couple years ago, I thought he would be a quality Rule V selection, but he wasn't taken and subsequently got injured.

There's a nice article about him on scout.com, which you can access here. The article talks about Hudgins, but also a brief mention about the differing player development strategies of the Rangers and Padres.

Hudgins' stuff prevents him from being a top of the rotation guy, but his baseball IQ and gritty style may make him a solid back of the rotation pitcher. However, injuries have retarded his career. He's already 26 and time is running out for him to establish himself as an MLB pitcher. Regardless, for now, it's just good to see him get back on the mound, but I'm still pulling for him to succeed in the show and then settle into a long career as a pitching coach, educating throwers on the true art of pitching.

Now that I've fulfilled my obligations to the John Hudgins fans around the world, it's back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Rule 5 Draft and the Danger of Convention

con·ven·tion (kuhn-ven-shuhn) –noun - a rule, method, or practice established by usage; custom: the convention of showing north at the top of a map.

FRONT OFFICE INNER WORKINGS

It's difficult at times to determine what exactly is going on inside a front office. We don't have a backstage pass or a behind the scenes show that enables us to see behind the current. Accordingly, we are often left to draw inferences from the decisions that are made. That said, it's difficult to view today's Rule 5 draft machinations by the Reds as anything other than an unwise adherence to convention.

In today's game, there are a number of organizations that embrace unconventional thought, including Oakland, San Diego, and Boston. Instead of relying on centuries old baseball dogma, they have consistently sought out new and better ways of doing things.

These are the same organizations that have embraced statistical analysis as a way to improve player valuation, a characteristic that has come to define them, but in actuality they are better termed "pragmatists." Or, perhaps the "independent thought" organizations. They are willing to consider new ideas and ways of doing things. They consider old problems in new ways. When the new way works, they keep it. When it fails, they discard it. But, at least, they are willing to question everything in their quest to build a better mousetrap.

RULE 5 DRAFT

That said, today's Rule 5 draft revealed that the Reds don't yet belong in that class. Under Krivsky, the Reds have made a lot of improvements. They've added value through unconventional means and haven't been afraid to make necessary changes. However, it's clear that there is still room for improvement.

In the Rule 5 draft, the Reds left unprotected and subsequently lost Carlos Guevara. Guevara has been dominant in each season in the Reds organization. However, the Reds could never get past the idea that he doesn't have a good fastball, relying instead on a screwball. Evidently, the Reds viewed him as nothing more than a gimmick pitcher who is unlikely to have success at the big league level. The general convention is that right-handed pitchers cannot be successful without a 90+ mph fastball and, evidently, the Reds bought into it.

However, with the next pick after losing Guevara, the Reds selected Sergio Valenzuela. Valenzuela is a right-handed pitcher out of the Braves organization. His performance in the minor leagues pales in comparison to that of Guevara.

It appears that the Reds downgraded a spot on their 40 man roster because they couldn't see past traditional baseball "wisdom." The Reds chose the unsuccessful conventional pitcher from the organization with a track record of quality pitching over the unconventional pitcher who has had nothing but success.

MINOR LEAGUE TRACK RECORD AND METHODS OF PLAYER VALUATION

In 5 minor league seasons, Carlos Guevara posted a 2.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9. On the other hand, in 4 minor league seasons, Sergio Valenzuela posted a 5.58 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9.

The "independent thought" organizations recognize the importance of event outcomes in their player valuation, which is the foundation of statistical analysis. The "conventional" organizations focus strictly on the "process" in player valuation, which is the basis for traditional scouting.

Evidently, the Reds felt that Guevara's impressive results were substantially outweighed by the manner in which he went about getting them and that Valenzuela's poor results were substantially outweighed by the manner in which he got those results. Both of those premises strike me as being rather dubious, but, as always, time will reveal the truth of the matter.

Ultimately, the Reds chose to adhere to convention and probably cost themselves a solid reliever in the process. Guevara may turn out to be ineffective at the MLB level, but at the very least he earned a cup of coffee to find out. Not surprisingly, it's the Padre organization that will give Guevara his chance after they traded to obtain his rights from the Marlins. Regardless of whether or not Guevara pans out for the Padres (though I suspect he will), it speaks volumes that the Padres were willing to give him a shot where the Reds were not.

Top Prospect List: #17 Josh Roenicke, RHP

Jose Roenicke is an "interesting" prospect in just about every sense of the word. He's got very good stuff and an MLB pedigree, but he's older and a bit less polished than one would hope.

Roenicke is 6'3", 195 lbs, bats right, and throws right. He's currently 25 years old, but will be 26 in August of next year.

DRAFT STATUS AND COLLEGE BALL

Roenicke suffered from a healthy dose of career confusion at UCLA. Despite being the son of Gary Roenicke and nephew of Ron Roenicke, two former major league outfielders, Josh originally went to UCLA to be a wide receiver on the football team. However, those plans were scrapped after he failed to catch a pass in his first two seasons. After that, Roenicke focused strictly on baseball.

However, even that decision had its ups and downs. Roenicke played primarily in the outfield, where his bat was, in a word, underwhelming. In his four seasons with the UCLA, Roenicke posted an OPS of .500 in 2003, a .684 in 2004, a .713 in 2005, and a .574 in 2006. For his college career, Roenicke managed only 1 homerun.

Clearly, Roenicke didn't have the bat to follow in the footsteps of his father and uncle. However, interestingly enough, Roenicke also toed the rubber for a whopping 15.1 innings in his career at UCLA. In that span, he posted a 2.94 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 14/9 K/BB ratio.

It's a credit to the Reds scouting department that they gleaned enough information from those 15.1 innings to see MLB pitching potential in Roenicke. However they managed to do it, the Reds saw enough out of Roenicke to make him the 294th overall pick in the 10th Round of the 2006 draft.

REPERTOIRE

Roenicke features a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range, but he can spin it up to 97-98 on occasion. In addition, his fastball has good movement on it, which only increases its effectiveness. For his secondary offering, Roenicke relies on a 87-89 mph cutter that has tremendous movement, so much so that at times it appears to be a sinker or a slider.

While he lacks a quality third pitch, he likely won't need one, as he is being used primarily as a reliever. While most organizations use their best pitching prospects as starters in the minors to ensure that they get regular, consistent work on their games, it's hard to argue with the Reds decision to leave Roenicke in the bullpen. Given his advanced age and lack of polish, allowing him to focus on relief work seems like a good strategy.

Roenicke is an excellent athlete, but he also has the mentality you need for a closer. He doesn't fear failure and isn't afraid to challenge hitters, which is what you need out of a closer. However, as to be expected from someone who recently converted to pitching full-time, Roenicke needs to improve his control and command. In addition, he needs to improve his understanding of sequencing pitches. Fortunately, these types of problems can all be improved upon with more experience and instruction.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Gulf Coast League Reds

Roenicke debuted in 2006 with the Gulf Coast League Reds, where he made quick work of the competition in his 7.2 innings of work. Roenicke posted a 1.17 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP, a BB/9 of 3.52, and a K/9 of 10.57.

Billings

That performance earned him a promotion to Rookie League Billings of the Pioneer League. At Billings, Roenicke had an uneven season. In 15.2 innings, Roenicke posted a massive 13.79 K/9, but an unimpressive 6.89 BB/9. Again, illustrating his combination of tremendous stuff and lack of polish. Not surprisingly given those ratios, he posted a 6.32 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.

Heading into the offseason, Roenicke didn't really look like a serious prospect. However, whatever he did in the offseason really paid off, as he took a big step forward in the 2007 season. Interestingly enough, the Reds were impressed enough to have him skip low-A Dayton and start him out at High-A Sarasota to begin 2007.

Sarasota

In Sarasota, Roenicke posted a very impressive 13.34 K/9 and managed to pair it with a respectable 4.88 BB/9. By cutting his walk rate, Roenicke managed to improve his ERA and WHIP from his time at Billings, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Granted, the Florida State League can be tough on hitters, but this was an impressive season none the less, one which earned him a promotion all the way to Double-A Chattanooga.

Chattanooga

At Double-A, Roenicke cemented his status as a prospect to watch. Despite the fact that making the jump to Double-A is widely considered the most difficult leap to make in the minors, Roenicke responded with his most impressive work.

At Chattanooga, Roenicke worked in 19.0 innings, in which he posted a 0.95 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP, 2.84 BB/9, and a 7.11 K/9. While the strikeout rate dropped against more advanced competition, his improved control is impressive, and I doubt many would complain about a 15/6 K/BB ratio in 19 innings of work.

In 70 career professional innings, Roenicke has an 11.44 K/9, a 4.63 BB/9, and perhaps most impressively has allowed only 2 homeruns.

Obviously, his cutter with the sinking action allows him to generate a lot of groundball outs, which is evidenced by his groundball percentage, which was 62% in 2006 in the GCL, 64% in 2007 at Sarasota, and a 46% at Chattanooga. Those rates are music to the ears of Reds fans, as that's exactly what you need to succeed in Great American Ballpark.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Roenicke has nice, clean mechanics, which is a bit surprising considering his lack of experience on the mound.

He has good, clean arm action with over the top arm slot. He has good tempo throughout the motion and maintains good balance throughout, which is a testament to his impressive athleticism. He never seems to lose control of his body or find himself off-balance in his motion. Roenicke pitches primarily out of the stretch, which helps simplify things for him. On his leg kick, he brings his "glove-side" (GS) leg up parallel with the ground.

One thing I like about Roenicke's mechanics, much like those of Josh Ravin, is that he maintains good body control on his follow through. Both Roenicke and Ravin throw hard, but neither has much effort to their deliveries. Each has a follow-through that is under control, which leaves them well-balanced and in a good fielding position. The ability to maintain this kind of body control would seem to reduce the chance of injury, as they can hit top velocity without having to use so much effort that their form breaks down, unlike fellow Reds prospect Kyle Lotzkar.

The only slight problem that I see in his mechanics is that on occasion he may open his shoulders too soon. He has a slight tendency to open his GS side shoulder too soon, which results in his pitching arm lagging behind and being out of position. He has to speed up his pitching arm to catch up to the rotational speed of his body. Generally speaking, a pitcher's shoulders should not begin to rotate until the GS foot has landed. When the GS lands, it should naturally trigger the shoulder rotation.

By opening the GS side shoulder a bit early, he may be putting additional strain on the pitching shoulder because his pitching arm has not had enough time to get into proper throwing position. Since the pitching arm is not in position, it must get pulled back into position by the rotational speed of his shoulders which can create additional strain on the arm. It's possible that this may increase his chances of an injury to his throwing shoulder, but even worst case that increase would be slight and best case it isn't anything to worry about at all. Not to mention, it doesn't happen on every pitch, so he might just fix the problem altogether in the minor leagues.

Overall, Roenicke has clean, efficient mechanics that bode well for his health and production.

You can access the link to his MLB scouting draft video here.

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

It's an interesting phenomena, but it's one that can't be overlooked. An MLB baseball lineage counts. If you have former MLB baseball players in the family, then you have an advantage over those who don't. Not only does it get your name on the scouting radar, but the athletic skills are in the genes. The Boones, Bells, Bonds, and now the Roenickes probably wouldn't disagree.

Baseball America is certainly sold on Roenicke, who jumped all the way up to #9 on their list, after not only failing to be ranked in the top 30 in 2006, but not even being listed on the Baseball America depth chart. That's just how far and fast he has risen up the ranks in 2007.

Personally, I don't tend to rate relievers as high as other prospects. Given the volatility of relievers and their limited playing time in which to make an impact (~65-85 innings), I tend to rate relievers a bit lower. However, Roenicke is clearly the best in the farm system and another year like 2007 will result in him moving even higher on the list. Both his control (aka: ability to throw strikes) and command (ability to locate those strikes in the zone) improved in 2007, which is the key to unlocking his MLB potential.

Taking into account his age, polish, upside, stuff, and the big step forward he took in 2007, Josh Roenicke lands at #17 on the list. Sometimes a big jump in performance in one year is accompanied by a small step backward the following year. It'll be very interesting to see if Roenicke can maintain his success against the advanced competition and 2008 will reveal much about Roenicke's future career.

Top Prospect List: #2 Homer Bailey, RHP

Well, 2007 marked the long awaited arrival of the much hyped Homer Bailey. The Reds have suffered for years from an inability to develop homegrown pitching. In fact, it's the defining characteristic of the organization over the past decade or so. It's difficult to quantify just how harmful this ineptitude has been, but the trickle down effect has been enormous.

It started with Marge Schott's decision to gut the scouting department in an effort to save money, which in reality was not saving at all. Rather, it just shifted the cost onto the backs of future Reds' teams, as the flow of young, inexpensive talent dried up and the Reds were unable to find viable replacement talent. However, after years of ineptitude, there is light at the end of the tunnel in the form of Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto.

Given the dry spell, the expectations for Homer were enormous among the Reds fans. It would have been damn near impossible for him to have met them, so his debut was widely panned among fans who expected more out of him. But, was the disappointment valid?

2007 SEASON

At the MLB level, Homer had his ups and downs. He worked in only 45.1 innings posting a 5.76 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. In addition, he had a 5.56 BB/9 and a 5.56 K/9 with a 1.32 GB/FB ratio.

Bailey struggled with his consistency, but did show flashes of his true abilities in games against Oakland and Arizona. Clearly, Homer struggled with his command, but did throw a first pitch strike 55% (Harang - 66%) of the time and limited the opposition to a contact rate of 78% (Harang - 78%). Homer also went to a 3-0 count in 6% (Harang - 3%) of the total plate appearances.

Overall, Homer needs to refine his command in order to capitalize on his plus stuff.

REPERTOIRE

Homer features a fastball that sits in the 92-96 range, but has late life that makes it seem even faster. Bailey also features two curveballs, one a 12-6 hammer and the other a slower, loopier curveball with an 11-5 break. The curveball is a plus pitch that is a knee buckler to righties and a backdoor pitch to lefties. Finally, Homer throws a changeup that is his third pitch. While it is clearly his third offering, it has some deception to it and features a bit of late sink.

Homer has a free and easy delivery, which should enable him to stay healthy. His has a live, loose arm that generates easy velocity, but the Reds would be wise not to overwork him in the Dusty Baker era.

FUTURE

While some Reds fans were disappointed in Bailey, there is still a lot to like. He got his feet wet in 2007 and should be ready to build on that in 2008. To improve, he must have better command in general, but especially with his offspeed pitches. It's unclear where Homer will start off in 2008, but he is likely to be in the Reds starting rotation.

While Homer had a some rocky moments in 2007, he should take a big step forward in 2008 and he gets the #2 slot on the list.

Top Prospect List: #3 Johnny Cueto, RHP

It's hard to describe just how good Johnny Cueto was in 2007. He dominated at three separate levels of the minor leagues. In fact, he only seemed to get better as he climbed the ladder. His performance almost warrants the #2 slot on the prospect list, but he didn't quite pass Homer Bailey.

Cueto, who was signed as an international free agent, joins Juan Francisco in proving the importance of international scouting in the modern era. To be competitive, smaller market teams must have top notch farm systems to provide a flow of inexpensive young talent. In order to have a top flight farm system, the organizations must bolster the prospects acquired in the draft with international free agents. Cueto and Francisco are two of the top ten prospects in the Reds system and each was an international free agent.

2007 SEASON

In 2007, Cueto started at High-A Sarasota, where he posted an impressive 3.33 ERA with 1.19 WHIP and a 72/21 K/BB ratio in 78.3 innings. In addition, his groundball percentage was 47%. His performance earned him a promotion to Double-A.

At Chattanooga, Cueto posted a 2.05 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 21/2 K/BB ratio in 22.0 innings. In addition, his groundball percentage was 36%. But, Cueto wasn't finished, as he also excelled at Triple-A.

At Louisville, Cueto posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and a 77/11 K/BB ratio. His groundball percentage was 34%.

All in all, it was truly an extraordinary performance from Johnny Cueto.

REPERTOIRE

Cueto is small in stature, standing only 5'10" tall and tipping the scale at 192, but he has a big arm. He throws a 92-94 mph fastball that occasionally touches 96. He works with a free and easy high three-quarters delivery and can locate the fastball to each side of the plate. Cueto also picked up a changeup from the instruction of former Red great Mario Soto that quickly became an MLB league average pitch. In addition, Cueto also throws a slider that can overmatch hitters at times.

Cueto's size raises durability concerns, but for now he seems to have a rubber arm. His arms are long, which gives him good leverage and may prevent him from wearing down. As if to answer questions about his durability, Cueto also pitched in Dominican Winter League, where he pitched 22.0 innings and posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. He continued his impressive display of power and command, posting a 22/6 K/BB ratio.

FUTURE

Cueto's 2007 performance has earned him a long look at a spot in the starting rotation in Spring Training. If he doesn't make the squad out of spring training, then he'll return to Triple-A Louisville to continue to refine his pitches. At this point, he doesn't seem to have much left to prove or work on, so he should be up in the Majors in the very near future.

Cueto's extraordinary season earns him the #3 spot on the list.

Top Prospect List: #13 Matt Maloney, LHP

The Reds acquired Matt Maloney from the Phillies last year for Kyle Lohse. Since Maloney arrived in the Cincinnati organization, he's opened up a lot of eyes and given pause to those fans who felt that Wayne Krivsky shouldn't have traded Zach Ward for Kyle Lohse. At this point, Maloney seems to be a better prospect than Ward.

It's interesting to see the Reds acquiring a lot of guys with high baseball IQs over the last couple of years, including Matt Maloney, Devin Mesoraco, Danny Dorn, and Todd Frazier. It's nice to have guys in the in organization who play smart baseball and always seem to make the right percentage play.

Maloney went to the University of Mississippi. He's 6'4, 220 lbs, bats left, and throws left. He'll be 24 years old heading into the 2008 season.

REPERTOIRE

Maloney features four solid pitches, including a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. None of the four pitches is a plus pitches, but his tremendous command and feel make the pitches play up.

His fastball is his best pitch and it sits in the 86-89 range with tremendous late sink. His changeup is his second best offering and he is not afraid to throw it at any time. His curveball has an 11-5 break on it and is a big looping type breaking ball.

His lack of velocity limits his upside, but Maloney understands how to get the most out of what he has, which is always a good thing in a pitcher.

Most scouting reports have him pegged as a backend of the rotation starter due to his lack of a plus pitch. However, given his stellar performance at each and every level over the past couple of years, it may be time to increase his ceiling to that of a #3 starter.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Maloney has had nothing but success at every level. From 2005 through 2007, Maloney put up quality numbers at every stop. He posted a 3.89 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a 36/15 K/BB ratio in 37 innings at low-A ball. At high-A, Maloney posted a 2.02 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 180/73 K/BB ratio in 169 innings. At Double-A, Maloney continued to roll posting a 3.69 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP with a 154/48 K/BB ratio in 153.2 innings. And, finally, at Triple-A, Maloney posted a 3.18 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and a 23/6 K/BB ratio in 17 innings.

In his minor league career, Maloney has a 3.4 BB/9 and a 9.4 K/9. In addition, he gets a heavy amount of groundball outs due to his good sinker, which will play well in Great American Ball Park. On average, Maloney has GB% of up over 40% for his minor league career.

While his stuff is not considered to be above average, the results certainly are.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Mechanically, Maloney is sound. He works from a three-quarters arm slot, rather than a pure over the top slot. He has a clean, efficient delivery that doesn't have any unnecessary movement. He doesn't have a lot of effort in his delivery, which isn't unexpected considering his lower velocity, but it still should reduce his chances of injury. His arm action is clean and efficient, which makes his delivery much easier to repeat.

Unlike Travis Wood, Maloney's leg kick doesn't wrap around his body, but rather it stays pretty much in line with his "glove-side" (GS) shoulder. Wood coils his body up, which enables him to store more energy and impart more velocity on the ball. Maloney's straighter leg kick doesn't create as much power as Wood's coiled approach.

One thing that's a bit unorthodox with Maloney is that he throws across his body (which you can see in these photos, note the closed position of the Glove Side leg and the cross-fire action of the arm). His "glove-side" (GS) leg lands outside of his original foot position on the rubber. In essence, when he plants his GS leg it lands closer to first base than his feet were to begin with. This leaves his body closed off from home plate, so he has to throw across his body in order to deliver the ball to home plate. This also results in Maloney falling off the mound towards the third base side, as his momentum is going that way from having to throw across his body. Accordingly, he isn't in the best of fielding positions at the end of his delivery.

You can access the link to Maloney's MLB draft scouting video here.

All in all, Maloney's mechanics are fundamentally sound, which should result in consistent results and a decreased risk of injury.

FUTURE

Maloney is an interesting prospect. The scouts will tell you that his stuff isn't good enough to be a quality starting pitcher, but he keeps having substantial success as he climbs the ladder. His great strikeout rate defies his reputation for average stuff. It'll be interesting to see if pitching savvy and guile can overcome less than elite stuff. To date, his performance at every level necessitates a bump in his potential ceiling to that of a #3 starter, but whether his stuff will play at the MLB level remains to be seen. Of course, that's the same question that's been raised at each stop of his career, but at some point the argument that is stuff won't play at higher levels must yield to the fact that his stuff IS playing well at the higher levels.

For now, the crafty lefty Matt Maloney comes in at #13.

Top Prospect List: #9 Travis Wood, LHP

Travis Wood is the best left-handed pitching prospect the Reds have had in quite some time. The Reds grabbed Wood in the second round of the 2005 draft with the 60th overall pick. Wood was drafted out of Bryant High School in Arkansas. He's 5'11 tall, 166 lbs, bats right, and throws left.

REPERTOIRE

Wood features a fastball that regularly sat at 93-94 in high school, but was down in the 87-91 range in 2006 and 2007. The fastball has good movement, but the Reds would love to see his velocity bounce back. Wood also features one of the best changeups in all of the minor leagues. Wood uses the circle change grip and the pitch is nearly indistinguishable from his fastball coming out of his hand. In addition, his changeup has good late sink as it reaches the plate. Wood is still trying to refine his curveball, which he'll need in order to have success against the more advanced competition.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Wood exploded onto the scene in 2005, dominating the Rookie League with both the Gulf Coast League Reds and the Billings Mustangs. In the Gulf Coast League, Wood posted a 0.75 ERA with a 0.83 and a 45/7 K/BB ratio. He then was bumped up to Billings, where he had a 1.82 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 22/13 K/BB ratio.

In 2006 at low-A Dayton, Wood built on his rookie season success. He pitched 140 innings posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a 133/56 K/BB ratio.

In 2007, Wood was promoted to high-A Sarasota, where he worked only 46.1 innings. Wood struggled with tendinitis in his pitching arm. It's not an injury that is of long-term concern, but it did cost him some development time. Wood tried to pitch throw the tendinitis, which impacted his overall numbers. As a result, he only had a 4.86 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP, but he still had a stellar strikeout rate. He struck out 54 batters in only 46.1 innings pitched, but also walked 27 batters.

Wood has consistently posted dominating numbers. Last year was he least impressive, but was also injury plagued. Now that he's healthy, Wood is very likely to bounce back in 2008, but he needs to continue refining his other pitches as he climbs the ladder. The more advanced competition at the higher levels will force Wood to rely on a more diversified repertoire, but he'll only be 21 next season so he's still got plenty of time to develop.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Simply put, Wood has very solid mechanics. There just isn't much not to like.

Wood starts his motion off by stepping to the side with his "glove side" (GS) leg, then bringing it up into a high leg kick. His leg kick coils his hips, which provides a lot of storied energy to be unleashed when he uncoils. He has a strong "drop and drive" move towards the plate, which gives him a good push off the rubber. He doesn't throw from straight over the top, but rather from a very high three-quarter arm slot. He has good balance and consistent tempo throughout the motion. His tempo is quick, but he keeps his body in sync.

The only real issue he might have is a rather minor one. Occasionally, he seems to pitch against a stiff GS leg. Instead of landing on the GS leg and finishing with his upper body over the top of his legs, he occasionally throws against a firm GS leg, which results in his upper body being pushed back towards the mound against his GS leg and his upper body not finishing over the top of his legs. This is a minor issue, but it's possible that throwing against a stiff GS leg could increase the strain on the arm.

You can access Wood's MLB draft scouting video here.

All in all, Wood's mechanics are sound. I wouldn't put them in a class with Josh Ravin, but they are very solid. However, there is quite a bit of effort in Wood's delivery. His motion is quick and he puts a great deal of effort into each pitch, which could increase the stress on the arm. Factor in his slight build and there is an increased cause for concern on the injury front, so the Reds will have to handle him carefully.

FUTURE

Wood's future is bright, but he is living on his changeup against inexperienced competition. In addition, his max effort delivery and injury in 2007 are cause for concern. To be successful, Wood will have to stay healthy and improve his other offerings. Ultimately, Wood has #3 starter upside, but he's got quite a way to go before he can reach it. He'll likely head back to high-A Sarasota to start 2008.

Ultimately, his success at the higher levels will be determined by his health and the quality of his secondary pitches, but for now Travis Wood clocks in at #9.

Top Prospect List: #14 Josh Ravin, RHP

This is a ranking that's likely to be at odds with most other 2008 Reds Top Prospect Lists, but I am very high on Josh Ravin. He was listed as the #13 Prospect in Baseball America's 2007 Prospect Handbook, but his performance in 2007 may see him drop substantially on most prospect lists.

Ravin was a member of the Chatsworth High School program that won back-to-back national championships in 2003 and 2004. During his senior season, Ravin's velocity dropped to 89-91 and he was sidelined for a month with a tired arm. However, that didn't prevent the Reds from selecting him in the 5th round of the 2006 draft with the 144th overall pick. The Reds soon found out that they were getting an even better arm than he showed in high school.

REPERTOIRE

Ravin is 19 years old, 6-4 tall, weighs 195 lbs, and throws right-handed. He has almost a prototypical pitcher's body type due to his height and large frame. His height allows him to throw on a downward plane, despite the fact that he throws from a free and easy high three-quarters arm slot. In addition, his body type allows room for growth and additional projection.

Ravin features a fastball that sits in the 90-94 mph range, but touched 98 mph in the 2007 season. Ravin's fastball has good movement with heavy, late life. He also features a curveball and changeup that are advanced for his age.

While he has plus stuff, he has quite a bit of trouble commanding it, but he's still young enough to improve on it.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Ravin made his professional debut in 2006 with the Gulf Coast League Reds, where he worked he worked 21.0 innings in which he posted a 4.29 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a 22/10 K/BB ratio. He had a BABIP of .386, had an OPS against lefties of .825, and an OPS against righties of .696. While his overall numbers weren't eye popping, his 3.94 BB/9 and 9.56 K/9 stats were impressive and he was promoted to the Billings Mustangs of the Pioneer League.

At Billings, Ravin worked 15.3 innings and posted a 3.52 ERA with a WHIP of 1.50 and a 18/13 K/BB ratio. In addition, Ravin held opponents to a .189 batting average against in the Pioneer League.

In 2007, command problems plagued Ravin in his return to Billings. He worked 40.0 innings, posting a 39/41 K/BB ratio and posting a 8.55 ERA. Ravin also dealt with some shoulder soreness, which cost him innings and effectiveness.

While there isn't really any way to put a positive spin on his 2007 numbers, Ravin still possesses the tools for success. His good stuff still allowed him to strike out almost a batter an inning, but command was a big problem.

PITCHING MECHANICS

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Ravin is his pitching mechanics, which appear to be almost flawless.

There is a certain beauty to professional sports that can be seen when an athlete performs his task in such a way that all the parts work together as one cohesive unit. When it all comes together, the action is elevated to a place where there's an economy of movement. A certain grace and fluidity.

I'm sure it differs for everyone, but I've seen it several times before, including Payne Stewart's golf swing and Joe Montana's passes. Since studying the Reds prospects, I'm surprised to have seen it twice. In Danny Dorn's swing and Josh Ravin's pitching motion. Maybe it's what baseball scouts call "the good face", but whatever you call it, I think both Dorn and Ravin have it.

Not only can Ravin throw a heavy fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s, but he does it with a very easy motion and arm action. In contrast to Kyle Lotzkar, there is very little effort to Ravin's delivery, which should help reduce his risk of injury. His body control and balance throughout the pitching motion are truly impressive. At no point in his delivery does he ever seem to rush, be out of control, or out of balance.

Ravin maintains an easy, consistent tempo throughout his delivery. Like many modern pitchers, he doesn't begin his windup by stepping backwards with his "glove side" (GS) leg, but rather by lifting his GS foot up and turning it parallel to the rubber. He then rotates his body and brings his knee up well past parallel and nearly to his chest. As he pushes off the rubber towards home plate, Ravin's hips move sideways with his GS hip leading him towards home plate before he completes his leg lift. This move is commonly known as the "drop-and-drive" motion.

This strong hip action maximizes the force that pulls his shoulders around, but his follow through still remains in perfect balance. His "pitching arm side" (PAS) leg lands right next to his GS foot, leaving him in ideal fielding position. As a result, he can get off the mound quickly and fields his position very well.

While his pitching motion is fundamentally sound, Ravin needs to improve his ability to repeat his delivery. If he can repeat his delivery, then his consistency and command should improve.

You can access the link to Ravin's MLB scouting video here.

FUTURE

Ravin had a strong 2006 debut, but struggled with his control in 2007. He has the stuff and the mechanics to be a top of the rotation starter, but he needs to harness his control in order to unlock his true potential. While his poor command is of concern, it's not a unique problem among young pitchers. In addition, it is a flaw that can be corrected. You can teach command, but you can't teach stuff. Ravin has the mechanics and stuff to be successful.

It'll be interesting to see where the Reds start Ravin to begin the 2008 season. He may be returned to Billings, but the Pioneer League season doesn't start until mid June and the Reds may want to get Ravin to full-season baseball. However, if he returns to Billings, then he'd get to work with newly named pitching coach Tom Browning in the new home park of the Mustangs. A return to Billings may be a good thing for Ravin, otherwise he might get bumped up to low-A Dayton.

I have to give the nod to Josh Ravin over Lotzkar due to the fact that his stuff is a tick better and his mechanics are much cleaner. Like almost all pitchers drafted out of high school pitchers, Ravin has a long way to go to reach the majors. However, his solid mechanics gives him a strong foundation on which to build and his repertoire gives him all the tools he needs to be successful.

The 2008 season will be a big test for Ravin, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a big step forward. The 19 year old Ravin isn't currently among the best pitching prospects in the organization, but he's quickly becoming my favorite. If he can do a better job of repeating his delivery, then his control should improve, which will unlock his potential. However, if his control doesn't improve, then he'll flame out before ever reaching the upper levels.

His performance next season will reveal a lot about Ravin's future, but for now he checks in at #14 on the list.

All Undervalued Team: Brian Wilson, closer

Well, our All Undervalued Team is coming together nicely, but it's time to identify our closer. The guy who can slam the door and ensure victory. There are a number of interesting candidates around the majors, including a couple (Bray and Burton) on the Reds, but Brian Wilson of the Giants gets the nod.

The Giants drafted Wilson in the 24th round in 2003 out of Louisiana State University. Wilson was primarily a starter at LSU, but has worked almost exclusively as a reliever in his professional career. Wilson had his development hampered by an elbow injury, which required Tommy John surgery, but has begun to emerge as a potential dominant closer.


RECIPE FOR SUCCESS

Wilson has three factors weighing heavily in his favor as a potential closer. Those three factors are: 1) He possesses tremendous stuff, 2) appears to have the appropriate mindset and mental toughness for success, and 3) the Giants WANT him to be the closer.

As to the first factor, Wilson throws a very heavy ball. He's got great velocity and a nasty slider, which undoubtedly has the Giants dreaming of another becoming the new Robb Nen.

Wilson also has the desire to close. He wants to be the guy on the hill with the game on the line. A lot of young pitchers shy away from that kind of responsiblity, but Wilson doesn't appear to be one of them. Mental toughness is as important to consistent 9th inning success as is great stuff. Wilson appears to have both.

Finally, the Giants seem to want Wilson to claim the job. It is a lot easier to maintain an organization's faith in you, than it is to create that faith. Given the Giants desire to see Wilson succeed in the closer role, he'll have the opportunity to do so and the backing of the organization through any growing pains.


STATISTICS

Like most pitchers, the three most important elements of a successful closer are limiting walks, racking up strikeouts, and getting groundballs. Wilson has done a nice job of getting groundballs and missing bats, but like most power pitchers has struggled at times with his control. As his control improves, his walk rate will decrease and his strikeout rate will increase.



Effective closers need to limit the number of free passes they allow, as the margin for error for a closer is often razor thin. A closer's best pitch is often times strike one. In 2007, Wilson has thrown a first pitch strike 69% of the time. For comparison, on his career, Mariano Rivera has thrown a first pitch strike 61% of the time and Trevor Hoffman is at 64%.

If Wilson can consistently locate his fastball and control his wicked slider, then he'll be a very effective late inning reliever.


SCOUTING REPORT

Here is the scouting report on Wilson from the 2007 Baseball America Handbook, where he was ranked the Giants 5th best prospect:

"The Giants drafted Wilson in the 24th round in 2003, knowing he wouldn't be able to pitch for a year because he had to recover from Tommy John surgery. Wilson's first pro season was a disaster, and he admitted he sometimes skated through his rehab work before rededicating himself and dominating the last two years. Wilson's biting 90-mph slider is the best in the system and is reminiscent of Robb Nen's signature pitch. He throws in the mid-to upper 90s with his fastball and hit 98 mph in the big leagues. Quietly intense and armed with a huge water serpent tattooed on his left arm, Wilson has the look of a closer. Fastball command was an issue for Wilson in San Francisco, and it maybe partially explained by an oblique strain that kept him from getting into a consistent rhythm. He feeds off adrenaline, which can work against him when he overthrows or tries for the strikeout. He hasn't learned to handle poor outings yet. The Giants prefer an established presence in the ninth inning, so Wilson may have to settle for a setup role this year. If he succeeds there, he could close for San Francisco in 2008."

THE FUTURE

The Giants have already given Brian Wilson several save chances in 2007 and he successful converted all three. In addition, he's been an effective setup man, as evidenced by his 8 holds. Given his pure stuff, his closer mentality, and groundball tendencies, I'd love to have Wilson in the Reds bullpen, which for a large part of the season seemed to lack mental toughness.

All in all, it appears that Wilson has all the makings of an effective closer and an organization with an interest in making it happen. In fact, it could happen as soon as 2008. He's certainly one to watch and he's unlikely to fly below the radar for long.

Down on the Farm: Devin Mesoraco

Now is as good a time as any to check in on the Reds' first round draft pick, Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco is a catcher that the Reds drafted straight out of Punxsutaweny high school with the #15 pick.

As a senior, Mesoraco put up huge numbers (.467/.632/.911 with 4 HRs and 21 RBI) and captured the Gatorade Player of the Year, which honors the best player in Pennsylvania high school baseball. A season which is even more remarkable, considering that he underwent Tommy John surgery in his sophomore season and spent his entire junior season rehabbing his arm. Obviously, he's made a complete recovery.

Personally, I would have preferred to see the Reds draft Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham, as he has been an integral part of the past two College World Series championship teams and has a pure swing.

High school catchers are about as risky a selection as you can make, as they have a tremendous amount to learn and need a great deal of development time. The only thing that comes with more risk is a high school pitcher. Mesoraco was highly regarded by scouts, but unfortunately a lot can happen before a high school catcher will reach the majors.

That said, it is refreshing to see the Reds draft impact talent at premier defensive positions. As of late, all the Reds good prospects have played corner spots. The more valuable prospects are the ones that play up the middle of the field (c, ss, 2b, cf). Over the past couple of drafts, it seems the Reds focus has shifted towards prospects that play these premier defensive positions (Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Vailaka, etc), which is nice to see after watching such poor defensive play in Cincinnati over the past few years.

The Reds started Mesoraco with the Gulf Coast League Reds, which is about as low as you can go in minor league system. Unfortunately, Mesoraco has still struggled mightily with the bat. On the season, he's hitting .211/.307/.260/.567 with 14 runs, 1 homerun, and 7 RBI in 123 At Bats.

Given his age and the fact that it is his first taste of professional baseball, his poor performance means very little. Not to mention, he's been dealing with lingering thumb problems, which could also be impacting his performance.

While his performance has been poor, expect a big step forward next season from Mesoraco. He'll be healthy, experienced, and be ready to play. This half season is just for him to get his feet wet, so take the subpar performance with a grain of salt. Next year is when we will be able to see what we've got with Mesoraco.