Offseason Target #2: Marc Rzepczynski

Admittedly, this one strikes me as being rather unlikely and really doesn't address an area of need for the Reds, but if the following comes to pass, then the Reds would be foolish not to pounce:

MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch lists Marc Rzepczynski as a non-tender candidate. Rzepczynski made $504,000 in 2012 and is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. Langosch believes that right-hander Kyle McClellan is also a non-tender possibility.

Personally, I just can't see the Cardinals cutting Rzepczynski loose, as I suspect the Cardinals recognize that his value will likely outpace even his arbitration award. Even if they didn't feel he was worth, it seems likely that they would trade him rather than non-tender him, but crazier things have happened so we'll consider it for a moment.

I was intrigued by Rzepczynski the first time I saw him work in Toronto. He combined good stuff with a lot of polish, but we'll get back to that after a quick detour through his pitching mechanics. Rzepczynski has solid mechanics, which are largely defined by an unusual arm swing that I can't recall having seen seen in any other pitcher...except one. Curiously, that other pitcher also made his MLB debut in 2009. If you compare Rzepczynski with Madison Bumgarner, the mechanics are pretty close.  

Both pitchers utilize high leg kicks with coil at the apex to build up momentum to impart on the baseball. Each also maintains good balance at the apex of the delivery, while being fairly deceptive with the ball.

As both unpack the leg kick and start to drive towards the plate, they incorporate an unusual arm-swing to bring the ball up into the pitching position. Most pitchers use a far less severe arm-swing, but Bumgarner and Rzepczynski both swing their pitching arm directly out towards third base.














I can't imagine anyone teaching such an arm-swing, as not only does it seems like an unnatural motion, but it also eliminates any deception in the delivery. The ball is right there for the hitter to pick up. Even so, it's likely the way both pitchers naturally threw the ball when they first climbed up a pitching mound. It certainly works for them.

After they use the arm-swing to bring the ball up into position, they use similar stride lengths and throw with similar high-three quarter arm slots.
















While the mechanics are the same, I'm not suggesting that Rzepczynski is in Bumgarner's class as a pitcher. Bumgarner has an advantage in physical stature, which gives him a tick better stuff. And, for whatever reason, Bumgarner has an uncanny feel/command for pitching, which gives him another edge over Rzepczynski. Even so, Rzepczynski has value in his own right.

Personally, I think Rzepczynski is being wasted in relief, though his stuff undoubtedly plays up out of the bullpen. Still, I could see him as a solid mid- to back-of the rotation starting pitcher. Given that the Reds are short in the southpaw department, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, adding another lefty would have value.

For his career, Rzepczynski has ratios of 3.97 BB/9 and a 8.13 K/9 to go along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. One other factor would make him a good fit for the Reds, as he has heavy ground ball tendencies. On his career, he has a 56.1% ground ball rate, which was even better over his last two seasons (64.8% and 58.9%, respectively). To put it in perspective, his career rate is better than that of the Reds two biggest ground ball starters, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, who each chimed in with a rate of 48.9%.

The acquisition of Rzepczynski wouldn't address an area of immediate need, but adding value is always a good idea. The Reds lacked a southpaw starter in 2012 and, unless they move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation, that will likely be the case in 2013 as well. Further, given the impossibility of relying on the man of glass, Bill Bray, the Reds could use Rzepczynski as a second or third lefty out of the bullpen.

If the Reds learned nothing else from the loss to the Giants in the NLDS, they should at least recognize the advantage that having three lefties in the bullpen afforded Bruce Bochy. By having Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, and late season acquisition Jose Mijares, Bruce Bochy could use a very aggressive approach to running his bullpen. Frankly, that, and his willingness to actually manage aggressively, gave him an advantage over Dusty Baker.

Adding an lefty arm like Marc Rzepczynski is a good value play, regardless of whether they would utilize him in the rotation or out of the bullpen. Now, all they need is for the Cardinals to do something foolish to make him available. I probably won't hold my breath.

Reds Offseason Target #1: Ryan Sweeney

Photo courtesy of Kelly O'Connor

Now that the Giants have salted away the 2012 season and added their second title in three years (seriously, what universe is THIS???), it's time to look at the Reds' needs for 2013. The obvious needs are (1) table-setting, (2) bench depth, and (3) finding a replacement third baseman or leftfielder.

I was blown away by the caliber of the At Bats in the NLCS. Both the Giants and Cardinals featured a number of professional hitters who combined a disciplined plate approach with an all-fields hitting style. These hitters seemingly never gave away an AB and were difficult to beat. Particularly, Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro for the Giants; Carlos Beltran and David Freese for the Cardinals. I would love to see the Reds add another professional hitter with a disciplined approach, the obvious need being the top of the order spots.

There is simply no way the Reds can head into the 2013 season with the same sub-sub-sub-standard table-setters they featured last year. It's almost inconceivable just how putrid the Reds were in the 1st and 2nd spots in the order. And, it's indefensible, especially when you have the best hitter in baseball in the third slot. The number one job for the Reds this offseason is to ensure that Joey Votto has more ducks on the pond in 2013. Given how much the Reds have invested in Votto, the offense will and should revolve around him, which means that putting him in a position to do as much damage as possible is a must.

Anyway, avert your eyes, as here are those numbers for posterity sake:

Leadoff: .208/.254/.327/.581
2nd Spot: .257/.310/.390/.700


It's almost literally impossible to do worse in 2013.

There is an unspoken, and occasionally spoken, idea that the Reds should just ride out 2013 because Billy Hamilton is on the horizon for 2014 and beyond. The first problem is that you simply can't count, or rely, on the great Hamilton to pan out. He's an exciting prospect, but exciting prospects, especially those with questionable hit tools, flame out all the time. Second, there's simply no way the Reds can afford to wait another season without addressing the top of the order.

Given how close the Reds came to winning it all in 2012, it's imperative that they seize the opportunity. The time is now. The Reds very easily could have won a championship in 2012. As a Reds fan, it's absurd and surreal to even write the prior sentence, but it's true. For the first time in seemingly forever, there was no huge revenue, dominating AL team lurking in the shadows. No Yankee or BoSox team waiting to club the NL pennant winner into submission. Not even the Rangers, who, while never getting over the hump in 2010 or 2011, were certainly a much more well-rounded team than the 2012 Tigers. The AL was weak this year.

While the Reds' flame-out was somewhat understandable, given the loss of Johnny Cueto and the power-sapped Joey Votto, but it's not easy to get over. That's especially true because the Rangers are only getting wealthier, the Angels are likely to be better, the A's more experienced, the Tigers still strong, the Rays lurking, and the BoSox and Yankees will reload to some degree. And, that's just the AL, so the 2013 season will be no cake-walk.   

I can't support the idea of sitting on our hands and waiting/hoping for Billy Hamilton to be the savior, especially since even if he becomes the next Rickey Henderson we could still slot our 2013 table-setter into the second spot in the order behind Hamilton. I could make the argument (and I probably will later this offseason) that the Reds should  make a Mat Latos-type trade for an established, legitimate leadoff hitter. But, for now, I would target an undervalued player who could address a few areas of need.

If I was Walt Jocketty, I would definitely make a play for Boston Red Sox outfielder Ryan Sweeney. In the past, I haven't been that high on him because the power never developed. That may preclude him from being a true impact bat, but he can still be a nice complimentary player. And, the boxes he does tick happen to be areas of need for the Reds.

As I mentioned above, the Reds need more disciplined, professional hitters and more tough ABs at the top of the order. While Sweeney has had some volatility to his performance, his offensive profile certainly fits the bill. Frankly, I think one area of roster construction where the Reds deserve some criticism is in their failure to bring in players with the right offensive profile for the top of the lineup.

It's certainly understandable that they haven't managed to land a legitimate leadoff hitter. They are rare. In fact, I'm not convinced that it isn't more difficult to find a legitimate leadoff hitter than it is to find a number 1 starter. On the other hand, the Reds failure to buy any "leadoff hitter lottery tickets" is less understandable. Maybe it's Dusty's influence that has seen the likes of Corey Patterson and Wily Taveras sprint through the revolving door at the top of the lineup. Maybe it was Walt. Regardless, the Reds have rarely even brought in players who possess the right offensive profile for the leadoff spot.

As a result, they have not only lacked a legitimate leadoff hitter, but have never given themselves a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. A good example of lightning in a bottle can be found in the San Francisco Giants championship history. Two times. The Giants are not an organization known for valuing late-count, disciplined hitters, but in both of their championship seasons they won the leadoff hitter lottery with players who fit that offensive profile.

In 2010, the Giants got significant contributions from Andres Torres, who hit .268/.343/.479 out of the leadoff slot. Torres wasn't projected to be the full-time leadoff man, but he had the right offensive profile, including two minor league seasons where his OBP was .80+ points higher than his batting average, when his performance peaked. The peaking performance made him a valuable contributor to the Giants' championship push. 

The same thing happened in 2012, as the Giants once again hit the lottery with Gregor Blanco. They didn't need him in the leadoff slot (rather using him as a second leadoff hitter in the 7th spot), but he had that type of profile and his performance peaked. When Melky Cabrera was nabbed for cheating, Blanco slid comfortably into the starting lineup. Blanco hit .244/.333/.344 on the season after having some hot streaks during the season. Blanco had a strong walk rate and rarely chased pitches outside the zone. While a larger sample size caught up to him, he was a significant contributor for the Giants during the season and in the postseason. The Giants, in both championship seasons, benefited from taking a chance on a hitter with a leadoff hitter profile. The performance level wasn't there going into the season, but the offensive profile was.

Sweeney has the offensive profile the Reds desperately need. On his career, Sweeney has a slash line of .280/.338/.378 and has seen an average of  3.99 pitches per plate appearance. However, in his four years with the A's he had OBPs of .350, .348, .342, and .346 in a very tough park for hitters. Further, his disciplined approach seems to be improving, as in 2011 with the A's Sweeney saw 4.34 pitches and in 2012 with the Red Sox he saw 4.31 pitches, which made him one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball over the last two seasons. Given that the Reds, as a team, saw 3.80 pitches per plate appearance in 2012, good for only 19th in all of baseball, adding more disciplined plate appearances should be a priority. Further, while Sweeney's power is still underwhelming, that could play up in a hitter's park like Great American Ballpark.

Sweeney can also hit, as evidenced by his 21.6% career line drive rate. In fact, his line drive rate hasn't dipped below the 20% mark since his last season (2007) with the White Sox. And, he also makes contact at a very high clip, 88.4% contact rate for his career, which would be good for third on the Reds behind Ryan Hanigan (90.6%) and Miguel Cairo (89.6%).

So, Sweeney sees a lot of pitches, draws a good number of walks, makes a lot of contact, and hits a lot of line drives, which gives him the offensive profile the Reds need. And, while his current level of performance is already enough to be a significant improvement for the Reds at the top of the order, there remains a decent possibility of an uptick in performance level to "impact player" for our 2013 championship push. 

The final reason Sweeney makes sense is that he is a very good defensive player who can handle all three outfield spots. That gives him three possible roles as the roster develops this offseason. He could be the starting centerfielder, if the Reds want to turn the page on the Drew Stubbs era. He could be the starting leftfielder, if the Reds decide Ryan Ludwick is simply too expensive. Or, he could be a 4th outfielder/platoon mate, if the Reds bring back both Ludwick and Stubbs.

In addition to the lack of power, Sweeney's other drawback is his durability. In 2012, Sweeney missed time with separate issues, including a mild concussion, a toe injury, and a broken pinkie finger from punching a door after being robbed of a hit by Omar Infante. His 2012 performance level was disconcerting, as he hit a paltry .260/.303/.373, but it's hard to imagine anyone succeeding in the Bobby Valentine tornado of despair. Further, I wonder if concussions have a tendency to linger longer in baseball player performance than in other sports, as hitting is such a highly reactive process. So, that might be at play as well, but the larger point is that a fresh start in hitter friendly park would likely give him a performance boost.

As for his availability, the BoSox were reportedly looking to trade him right before he broke his pinkie last season, so he is likely both available and affordable.

All in all, Sweeney seems like the right player at the right time for the Reds. To recap, Sweeney (1) has the offensive profile the Reds need, (2) has the defensive ability and position to address the Reds problems, (3) is affordable in terms of salary ($1.75M in 2011), and (4) is likely available at a reasonable cost from the BoSox. Unless the Reds are looking to make a Latos-type move for a legitimate leadoff hitter, Sweeney is definitely worth considering. 

2010 All Undervalued Team

Well, time for my annual "picks to click" list. These are guys that strike me as being ready to take a step forward. Guys who are going to be better than their current valuation. It's easy to point to Albert Pujols and Roy Halladay and say that they're going to be studs in 2010. Barring injury, that's a virtual certainty. It's more fun and more valuable to focus on those under the radar guys who could step up in 2010. Guys who could be legitimate breakout candidates.


Daric Barton

Well, I've written on Barton before, but this will likely be his last appearance on here. Either he breaks through in 2010 or not, regardless he'll either graduate from this list or fall off it entirely. So, be it from breakthrough or flop, this is it for Barton.

Still, I can't help but really like his chances for 2010. While it seems like he's been around forever, in actuality he is still only 24 years old. The reason I like Barton is that he has perhaps the best plate approach of anyone in baseball this side of Albert Pujols.

1. Rarely chases pitches outside the strikezone. In 2009, Barton swung at pitches outside the strikezone only 13.5%, which was among the league leaders. Quite obviously, the fewer...

2. Barton makes contact at a 90% clip on pitches in the strikezone.

So, he rarely chases pitches outside the zone and when he swings at pitches inside the zone he makes contact 90% of the time. He doesn't go outside the zone and makes contact on the vast majority of the time on pitches in the zone. Those two factors help explain why Barton has the ability to walk more often than he whiffs, which is a rare combination in this day and age.

3. Barton hits line drives at a ~20% clip.

So, he rarely chases pitches outside the zone, he makes contact at a 90% clip on pitches in the zone, and when he does make contact he hits line drives 20% of the time. When you hit line drives at such a high rate, many of those balls in play will fall in for a hit.


In addition, Barton had Lasik surgery on his eyes this past offseason. If he does breakthrough in 2010, then people will likely point to that as a driving factor. However, through the miracle of modern technology, I watched basically every plate appearance Barton had over the final 5-6 weeks of the 2009 season. And, quite frankly, he looked good. He rarely chased a bad pitch, controlling the strikezone very effectively. When the pitchers worked him outside, he drove the ball with authority through the 5.5 hole on the infield. When he got a pitch on the inner half that he could handle, he did a nice job of dropping the head of the bat on the ball.

In September, Barton hit .310/.406/.488/.894 in 84 ABs. And, his performance could have been even more impressive, as he missed out on two additional homeruns by a grand total of about 4 feet. In a game against the Rangers in the Ballpark in Arlington, Barton hit a double off the top of the right-centerfield fence. If the ball was 2 feet higher, it would have been a homer instead of a double. Back home in Oakland for the next series, Barton was robbed of a homerun when Shin-Soo Choo jumped up against the rightfield fence to bring it back. Instead of 2 homers in September, he could easily have had 4 and maybe a bit more hype heading into the 2010 season.

Overall, I'm bullish on Barton for 2010. I think he's legitimately ready to pop. He controls the zone superbly and seems to have regained confidence in his swing. I'm not sure there is a better hitter in baseball at tilting the probability of success in an at bat in his favor. And, now he seems to have his refined his swing to enable him to better take advantage of those increased odds.


Sean Rodriguez

Rodriguez was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays in the Scott Kazmir deal. He's flown under the radar a bit, but he's a very interesting prospect due in no small part to the thunder in his bat. He has a nice righthanded swing and serious pop. In 2008, he slugged .645 at triple-A and in 2009 he followed it up by slugging .608. Now, admittedly, some context is required, as he put up those numbers in a very friendly Salt Lake City ballpark. Still, even if you knock 100 points off his slugging percentage, Rodriguez is still doing impressive work. In addition to his power, Rodriguez also does a nice job of controlling the strikezone. He is a disciplined hitter who is more than willing to work the pitcher and draw a walk. For his minor league career, Rodriguez has a slash line of .281/.380/.501.

In addition, Rodriguez is a baseball lifer. His father, Johnny Rodriguez, bounced around various professional baseball levels for decades, raised him as a ballplayer as much as a son. One of the things that gives him so much value is his versatility. He has the skills to play just about any defensive position on the field and is more than willing to do so. Whatever it takes to help the team win, Rodriguez is willing to do.

Personally, I think Rodriguez should get a long look at the starting second base job with Zobrist shifting to rightfield. But, even if he doesn't win the 2b job, Ben Zobrist already blazed a trail in Tampa Bay to great effect for a super-utility type role, so the Rays are likely to be more comfortable using Rodriguez in that manner than other organizations. That may open up more playing time and more opportunities than he might receive in another organization.

Overall, Rodriguez strikes me as potential impact player in the making. He could be a 20 homer player with a .280+ batting average. And, he can hold down second base without difficulty. Whether he wins the 2b job or the Rays elect to use him as a super utility player, the Rays did very well in taking him off Anaheim's hands.


Chris Dickerson

Yes, I'm still a believer.

I'm surprised more people don't see the value in Dickerson. Even if he is never anything more than he was in 2009, he's still a plus defensive player in a premier defensive position who boasts elite on-base skills. That's a pretty rare combination, as finding a true leadoff hitter who can provide plus defense at an up the middle position is of great value. And yet, I do think there's a bit more projection left to his game.

In his MLB career, Dickerson has a slash line of .283/.383/.440 and a career line drive rate of 20.9%. Those are pretty impressive numbers, even if the slugging percentage is driven by his Ruthian performance during his 2008 cup of coffee.

I do think he has more power projection in his game than he showed in 2009. If he manages to crank even a few more homers in 2010, then he'll become a true impact talent. If I was a GM for a different organization, I would most definitely have tried to take Dickerson off Cincinnati's hands last offseason. Fortunately, he's still in the organization and the best should be yet to come.


John Bowker

Bowker is a guy I've seen more than a few times and every time I see him at the plate I just can't help but like him. Part of it exists on a gut level. I read John Sickels' Minor League Blog and he talks from time to time about subconscious pattern recognition, basically how, when he sees a prospect, he forms an opinion on some aspect of his skills without really knowing why. Basically, watching so much baseball over the years you start to subconsciously pick up on patterns and tendencies that you can't really explain. It's an attempt to explain away why we like certain players and not others, but one that may hold some merit.

As for Bowker, he's got a unique swing. It's fairly short and compact, almost to the point where it makes him look like he's swinging with shorter arms, but is likely more the result of a somewhat abbreviated follow through. Despite the somewhat compact swing, Bowker still manages to generate substantial power. So, his swing path is quick to the ball, but the lack of length *should* make him a bit less susceptible to strikeouts. It's really an interesting combination.

To top it off, his swing generates line drives at a very good clip, as evidenced by Bowker regularly being up over 20% in his minor league days. So, his swing gives him a very good chance of popping the ball out of the park, but if it doesn't leave the park it still has a good chance of falling in for a hit. Overall, Bowker strikes me as being a good, well rounded hitter who needs an opportunity to show what he can do.

Another reason for optimism was his 2009 performance in the minors. For triple-A Fresno, Bowker posted a ridiculous slash line of .342/.451/.596/1.047. It certainly wasn't a sample size fluke, as he did it in 450 plate appearances, but the thing that really jumps out is his on base percentage. His OBP was over 100 points higher than his batting average, which is not the norm for Bowker. He's always been a good, intriguing hitter, but never an on-base maven. Still, it'll be interesting to see if he sustains it to any real degree. I suspect he was hitting the ball so well that pitchers worked him very carefully, issuing a lot of walks of the unintentional intentional variety. So, it remains to be seen whether his performance represents a breakthrough to a new level of discipline and controlling the zone. I am typically skeptical of the ability of players to make substantial improvement in plate discipline, as I tend to view it as a tool rather than an improvable skill.

Bowker's defensive skills relegate him to leftfield and first base, but his bat is rather intriguing and should be more than enough to carry him in an offense-first position. Unfortunately, the Giants brought in so many mediocre veterans that they may have blocked Bowker for 2010, which is unfortunate because he deserves a look. Even so, he's ripping the ball in spring training and on the verge of forcing his way into the Giants plans.


Ricky Nolasco

This one may be the most obvious one of the bunch. He was actually performing at a high level in 2009, but his overall stats are not reflective of it. Last year, he had a 5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.14 BB/9, and a 9.49 K/9. The 5.06 ERA is appalling, but his component stats were very impressive. In fact, his Fielding Independent Pitching was a stellar 3.35. He was undone by his Strand Rate (61.0%) and his BABIP of .336, both of which should normalize in 2010.

The Marlin defense did him no favors, but 2010 should be a breakout season for Nolasco.


Sean Gallagher

Gallagher has long been a favorite of mine. He features good velocity and life on his fastball and a plus curveball that is a real swing and miss pitch. During both his Chicago and Oakland days, Gallagher was plagued by a lack of opportunity and a lack of health. However, now that he has landed in San Diego, it could be the perfect situation for him. He now resides in the ultimate pitcher's park and should be completely healthy.

When healthy Gallagher strikes out roughly 7.5 per nine and walks roughly 3.5. He may not break camp as a member of the rotation, but may not be long for the bullpen as San Diego doesn't have many better options in the rotation. Early in his professional career, Gallagher failed to take advantage of his opportunities, but could be poised to do just that in 2010.

All Undervalued Team 2009

Well, I'm going to shorten up this year's version of the All Undervalued Team. Last year's version had a few hits (Jayson Werth, Brian Wilson), a few misses (Morgan Ensberg, Sam Fuld), and a few guys who may yet make an impact (Kevin Correia, Matt Murton, Kevin Frandsen). Even so, I thought I'd take another swing at if for 2009.

Anyway, here are a few guys I like for 2009 and beyond.

C - Taylor Teagarden

In Texas, Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the catcher of the present, but Teagarden is the catcher of the future. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but I'd be surprised if Teagarden doesn't supplant Salty sooner rather than later.

Teagarden's current problem is contact rate. He strikes out a great deal, which will likely prevent him from posting any .300+ batting averages. However, he has very good offensive upside, as he features plus power and controls the strike zone very well. He also has a very smooth, effective swing for a righthanded swing.





On defense, Teagarden is very strong. He has good footwork, which gives him good lateral movement behind the dish and helps quicken his release against would be basestealers.

At this point, his ability to make contact will determine his career path at the MLB level. If he can improve on it, then he could prove to have a few All Star seasons in him. Even if he doesn't, he should prove to be a very solid MLB backstop for years to come. It'll be interesting to see if can supplant Salty or if the Rangers trade him away for much needed pitching. Either way, it shouldn't be long before he is strapping on the "tools of ignorance" full time at the MLB level.


1b - Kila Ka'aihue

Kila had a massive 2008 season in which he slugged .600+ at double-A and triple-A. Kila is not a very athletic player and lacks foot speed. However, his calling card is skill at the plate, as he has plus power and strike zone control. Last year, Kila jumped three levels, starting at double-A moving to triple-A and finishing out the year with a cup of coffee in the Majors.



During his time in the minors, Kila posted a combined line of .314/.456/.628/1.085 with 37 homers and a stellar 104/67 K/BB ratio. It's rare to see a power hitter who walks more than he strikes out in the modern game, but Kila certainly has that ability.

Critics have pointed to the high percentage of his extra base hits that are homers, thinking that the low number of doubles indicates that his power surge isn't for real or sustainable. It remains to be seen whether 2008 established a higher baseline of performance or was more of a Chris Shelton type fluke season. At this point, it's difficult to say which, but it's difficult to ignore a player with such a high walk rate and moderate strikeout rate, especially when he packs the kind of power that Kila possesses.


2b - Jason Donald

Donald is a personal favorite of mine. He's the type of player whose production outpaces his tools. The type of player who almost seems to will himself to success.

The Phillies selected him in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft out of the University of Arizona. He uses a patient approach and controls the strike zone, but is aggressive when he gets the count in his favor. He has a good line drive stroke that produces sneaky power and he plays an intelligent game.




Donald has defensive versatility, but would likely be stretched at shortstop. He profiles best at second, but he will likely hit enough to hold down the hot corner as well. Unfortunately, he is currently blocked in a major way by Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Pedro Feliz. It'll take a trade to land him a full time job, but he should be very solid when he gets one.

3b - Matt Tuiasosopo

Tuiasosopo seems to have figured it out. He comes from a very athletic family, but like many pure athletes he has struggled to translate that athleticism into production. However, he seemed to turn the corner in 2008. He posted a line of .281/.364/.453 for triple-A Tacoma, but finished up strong with a .303/.380/.538 line in the second half.



He has a good work ethic and a strong defensive skill set. He also has the ability to control the strike zone, but until recently he lacked any pull power and utilized an inside-out swing. Now that he is more adept at turning on the ball, he is driving it with greater authority. He'll never be a big time homerun hitter, but his well diversified skill set still gives him good value. Incumbent Adrian Beltre is a free agent after the 2009 season, so Tui should be in line for the starting 3b job in 2010.

ss - Jed Lowrie


Lowrie was going to be my choice here, so I'll stick with it despite his wrist injury. He's got a very well-rounded game and a high baseball IQ. When he gets healthy, he should be a very productive offensive shortstop who is no slouch with the leather. If the BoSox are unwilling to make room for Lowrie at short, then I'd love to see the Reds acquire him.

That said, since his injury will knock him out for much of the season, I'll offer up a replacement nominee. I'm still a fan of Paul Janish and think he could be a sneaky valuable shortstop. His offensive game projects as being potentially valuable enough to warrant making him a starter. An above average defensive shortstop who can get on-base is a valuable commodity.


lf - Chris Dickerson


Yes, despite the slow start, I'm sticking with Dickerson. Obviously, he's still a bit raw, but all the tools are there. At this point, he needs to make an adjustment or two, but I find it difficult to believe that someone with his skill set and beautiful swing can't hit .260 at the MLB level.

If he can hit .260, then his power, speed, and ability to control the strike zone would make him a very valuable player. At this point, it's unclear whether he will ever reach his potential, but hopefully the Reds will give him a big enough sample size to prove it one way or the other.


cf -Ryan Spilborghs

Spilborghs may get squeezed out of the crowded Colorado outfield, but he is certainly deserving of a starting job. He can capably handle all three outfield spots and provides solid offensive production. He hits line drives at a good clip and gets on-base at a good clip. He lacks elite power, but he would like mighty good in leftfield for the Reds.


rf - Shin-Soo Choo

Choo is an interesting player and one that has flown almost completely under the radar. This is the season where he is getting a much bigger opportunity to show what he can do. On his career, Choo has a slash line of .286/.381/.484/.865 and a line-drive rate of 23.3%.

He seems a likely candidate to have something of a breakout season in 2009, as his production is about to meet with greater opportunity. He struggles a bit against southpaws, but most young lefthanded hitters do.

sp - Ricky Romero

It's time for a confession, back in 2005 the prospect that caught my eye the most in the draft was Ricky Romero. In the 2005 draft, you couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting an impact prospect in the first round, but Romero was not among them. That draft class included Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Chris Volstad, and others. Still, Romero was an impressive southpaw at Cal State Fullerton. He seemed polished and ready to move quickly up the ladder, but his progress has been slowed by injury and ineffectiveness.

However, that seemed to change when the Blue Jays kept him in spring training to work on his mechanics. After some mechanical adjustments, Romero seemed to be the pitcher of old. He features a fastball that sits at 90-91 and touches 94, but his best pitches are a power curveball with a sharp, tight break to it and a very deceptive change-up.



His 2009 season has been impressive to date, but unfortunately he was put on the DL with a strained oblique. It'll be interesting to see which Romero shows up when he returns from the DL, but he may finally be ready to reach his unrealized potential.


rp - Ryan Perry

Perry was drafted out of the University of Arizona in the 2008 draft. He has a huge arm, which produces a fastball that can touch 100 mph on the radar gun. He also features a power slider that at times can be a put away pitch. The Tigers continued their practice of being very aggressive in promoting their prospects, as Perry made the team out of spring training after only throwing 14.0 innings at the minor league level in 2008.

Perry could quickly take over the closer role for the Tigers, but for now he is being used carefully by skipper Jim Leyland. Still, if he continues to develop his secondary pitches and refines his command, Perry should be a very effective reliever who can work high leverage innings.

All Under-Valued Team in Review

Well, time for the rubber to meet the road, so let's see how the all undervalued team panned out. Werth and Brian Wilson hit the biggest, while Harang, Barton, and Ensberg were the big disappointments. Unfortunately, injuries derailed Everett and Frandsen in 2008, and slowed Fernando Cabrera down early in the season.

I still have faith in everyone on this list, but I was expecting a bit more out of a few of these guys. Even so, Werth finally lived up to my expectations and Wilson demonstrated the kind of stuff that should make him a shutdown closer for years to come.

Anyway, here is how the guys fared in 2008 with links to preseason write ups.

1b) Daric Barton - There's no sugar coating it. Simple put, Barton had a horrendous 2008 season. He posted a disappointing .226/.327/.348/.675 and may have played his way out of Billy Beane's good graces. On the plus side, he hit line drives at a 19.3% clip, he hit .279/.419/.500 in September, and he was still a very young 23 year old. So, I still think the upside is there and I'd put him on the undervalued list for 2009 as well. It's too soon to write him off, but 2008 was a tough pill to swallow. Even so, he still has a tremendous blend of hitting skills and the power could still develop enough to allow him to post a few seasons with a slash line of .300+/.400+/.500+. I still have a lot of faith in Barton and 2009 will reveal quite a bit about his likely career arc.

2b) Kevin Frandsen - It was over before it began for Franny, as he blew out his achillies tendon and missed essential the entire season. He worked hard and the Giants rewarded him with a pinch hitting appearance in September. He saw three pitches and grounded out in that one at-bat. Unfortunately, Franny may have frittered away his best chance to claim a starting job at the MLB level.

It's odd just how often a player's career is aided or derailed by nothing more than timing. How many quality ballplayers missed their legitimate chance at an MLB career because they were blocked by a superior player? Jack Cust almost missed his window, because few teams recognized that he could be a quality MLB hitter. I have to wonder if that will be the case with Frandsen, as the Giants just signed Edgar Renteria to play short. That may make Emmanuel Burriss the front runner to play 2b and Frandsen the front runner to ride the pine.

Frandsen still has a Freddy Sanchez type skillset, a huge baseball IQ, and a tremendous work ethic. There is still a chance that he'll develop into a quality player, but he'll be 27 next year and the window of opportunity probably closed a bit on Frandsen's chances to be a starter at the MLB level. Still, the Giants love him and he does have skills, so 2009 could still be a breakthrough year for him.

3b) Morgan Ensberg - Probably the most disappointing player on the list for me, as I really like Morgan. Even so, it's getting difficult to keep the faith on him. He'll be 33 in 2009, so he's still got time left in his career, but he needs to redevelop the swing and approach that made him so valuable in 2005.

It was clear that the Yankees were a poor fit for Ensberg, as he needs consistent playing time and unless your are an All-Star, you won't be a starter in the Bronx. Not surprisingly, he hit .203/.263/.243 and was soon out of the Yankees' plans.

I still think Ensberg offers an upside that includes a unique blend of batting average, power, and patience. In addition, he's a solid defensive third baseman. I still think he could be a player in line for a bounceback season and I'd be willing to give him a look if I were a GM. Ideally, he could get some consistent playing time at third base in a hitter friendly ballpark. Not many clubs fit that bill, but the Reds are one of them. Still, Morgan would have to earn a spot on the roster before he could even make a play for a starting job. I will continue to root for him and I still think he could get back on track. However, it's looking less and less likely that he will.

ss) Adam Everett - Like his double play partner Kevin Frandsen, Everett saw his season derailed by injuries. He signed with the Twins, but didn't play much as a shoulder injury made it difficult for him to throw. He just signed with the Tigers and will try to regain the health that enabled him to be the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith.

The Tigers were a massive disappointment in 2008, but one thing I'll be watching (and, yes, I'll be the only one watching for it) in 2009 is the leftside of their infield. They are planning on having Brandon Inge at third and Adam Everett at short. If both can stay healthy, then they'll have one of the best defensive left sides of the infield in baseball history. While that may seem like a stretch, when you have one of the best defensive shortstops in history and one of the best defensive third basemen in the game today, then I don't think it's overreaching.

The Tigers were undone last year by going for the sexy big names, regardless of how they fit in defensively. In 2009, they are going for top flight defensive players, even though they aren't much on offensive. I'll be hoping that both Inge and Everett can stay healthy, as they'll be epically good on defense. Still, offensive ineptitude and injury threaten to derail at least one of their seasons.

lf) Matt Murton - Murton continued an underwhelming streak of offensive performance. On his career, Murton is still at a respectable .288/.354/.438/.792, which may not seem respectable for a leftfielder, but when you add in his fantastic defense then the total package still seems undervalued. While his bat was disappointing in 2008, he defense was not.

In 2008, his combined Cubs/A's defensive performance in leftfield resulted in a 34.6 UZR/150 and a +3 over 123 innings. I still submit that given a fulltime starting job in leftfield, he could be the best defensive leftfielder in baseball.

Unfortunately, his bat lately hasn't lived up to his career line, which is about the floor of production that he'd need to justify a starting gig. Still, I love his glove and think his bat would play if he can maintain his career slash line.

cf) Sam Fuld - Fuld was disappointing in 2008. However, I was surprised that he wasn't actually as bad as I remembered him being. In 2007, he posted a line of .287/.376/.395 between double-A and triple-A. Unfortunately, he lost out on the starting job with the Cubs out of spring training (though, he probably wasn't really given a shot), then cratered in 63 triple-A ABs. He then was demoted to double-A, where he posted a respectable .271/.366/.381.

I still think he could be the type of "free" minor league talent that could pay dividends to a team willing to roll the dice on him. He is rated as having the best plate discipline and being the best defensive outfielder in the Cubs system. Fuld is a favorite of mine from his college days, but I still hold out hope that he can be a sneaky good leadoff hitter and defensive centerfielder. Still, he'll need to take a step forward to catch the eye of an organization.

rf) Jayson Werth - After years of waiting for his massive skillset to emerge, it finally started happening in 2008. Werth possesses plus power, good speed, great defense, and tremendous baseball instincts. And, to top it all off, he's got tremendous on-base-skills. The most interesting thing about Werth is that he has not only the power and patience that you see in undervalued players like Jack Cust, but he also has tremendous defensive and basestealing skills. He's a very complete ballplayer, as evidenced by his 20/20 season. And, if he can prove that he can handle righties, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a 30/30 season out of him in 2009. That may be optimistic, but he's got the power and the speed to do just that. Still, it'll depend on his ability to hit the righties, which hasn't been his best attribute. Still, he had a great 2008 season.

Here's an article on just how valuable Werth was in 2008 and how valuable he could be in 2009 with more playing time.

sp) Aaron Harang - Harang suffered from the All-Undervalued Team curse, as he imploded after being used out of the bullpen in San Diego. He should rebound in 2009, but it's hard not to be disappointed and he certainly didn't prove that I was right about him being undervalued.

sp) Kevin Correia - Correia continues to be underwhelming, but I still like his chances. He's a prime example of a guy needing a change of scenery. He was bounced back and forth early in his career and between the rotation and bullpen later in his career. At this point, I think he needs to be put into the rotation and left alone. He's got good stuff and good movement, but he doesn't ever get a consistent chance. I still think he's undervalued and I'll be curious to see where he lands in 2009.

rp) Fernando Cabrera - Cabrera is back and healthy, which allowed him to demonstrate the type of stuff that got him on this list in the first place. In 2008, he posted a 9.8 K/9, but a concerning 5.4 BB/9. Even so, I think he's primed to take a step forward in 2009, as he's got dominant stuff.

cl) Brian Wilson - Wilson performed as well as I expected him, too. He racked up 41 saves with a 9.7 K/9. He needs to take his command up a tick, but he's primed to be a dominant reliever for a long time. He's got a filthy slider and the closer mentality that should help him get better in the future.

All Undervalued Team: Aaron Harang, RHS

As unbelievable as it seems, Aaron Harang is STILL undervalued around Major League Baseball. so he qualifies for our team. Maybe it's because he pitches in Cincinnati, doesn't light up the radar gun, or just lacks an oversized personality, but whatever the reason Aaron Harang isn't appreciated like he should be.

ARRIVAL IN RED

The Reds stole Aaron Harang from the A's, trading Jose Guillen to the East Bay for Aaron Harang, Jeff Bruksch, and Joe Valentine. It was hands down the best Reds trade in the past 15 years, but it was completed by co-interim GMs Brad Kullman and Leland Maddox. Krivsky has made some solid trades, but the Aaron Harang trade is beyond compare.

Harang attended San Diego State University and was drafted by the Rangers in the 6th round of the 1999 draft. In 2000, the Rangers subsequently traded him to the A's along with Ryan Cullen for Randy Velarde.

Harang spent parts of two seasons in Oakland, but was made expendable by the presence of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden. Surprisingly enough, Harang is now indisputably the most valuable pitcher out of the entire group. Harang has become a legitimate #1 starter and the linchpin of the Reds rotation.

#1 STARTER PRODUCTION

I'm not sure there's ever been a less heralded #1 starter in baseball. Harang has posted 3 consecutive seasons of stellar production. In fact, he's actually gotten better in each of the least four seasons.

Over the past four seasons:

**His ERA has dropped from 4.86 to 3.83 to 3.76 to 3.73.

**His WHIP has fallen from 1.43 to 1.27 to 1.27 to 1.14.

**His BB/9 has fallen 3.0 to 2.2 to 2.2 to 2.0.

**His K/9 has risen from 7.0 to 6.9 to 8.3 to 8.5.

In 2007, Harang threw a first pitch strike 66% of the time and 67% of all of his pitches were strikes. In addition, only 3% of opposition plate appearances resulted in a 3-0 count, while 24% of opposition plate appearances resulted in an 0-2 count. Harang threw first pitch strikes often and rarely fell behind, which helped him posted an NL best 4.19 K/BB ratio.

On top of it all, Harang has somehow managed to do it in front of a porous defense in a bandbox home ballpark. It's scary to think of the numbers he would put up in front of a top flight defense or a more pitcher friendly park. In 2007, the Reds as a team had a DER of only .679, which was well below the NL average of .691. In short, the Reds turn far fewer balls into outs than other defenses in the NL, which drags down the numbers of the entire pitching staff, Harang included.

On top of it all, Harang isn't just an ace, he's also a workhorse, logging a total of 677.2 innings over the last three seasons. So, he doesn't just provide a high level of production, he provides a massive amount of that production. A pitcher's impact is not just a function of his performance, but also his workload.

Rich Harden can pitch at a Johan Santana like level, but it's largely irrelevant because he can't handle a workload heavy enough to maximize his impact. Barry Zito can handle a very heavy workload, but doesn't perform at a very high level anymore, so his impact is minimized. Harang, on the other hand, performs at a very high level and works a lot of innings, which maximizes his impact on the fortunes of the Reds.

Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young Award in 2007, but it's fair to wonder if Harang would've won it if he and Peavy swapped teams. Again, in 2007, the Reds had a .679 DER, while the Padres posted a .701 DER. In addition, Petco Park is the best pitcher's park in baseball, while Great American BallPark is one of the worst. Peavy would probably still be a tick better, but it wouldn't be by much. Harang is that good.

FUTURE

At this point, I'm not sure what Harang has to do to earn the respect he deserves, but it will probably take the Reds making the playoffs. At that point, maybe the national media would wake up and realize what they have been missing. Until that time, Aaron Harang can comfortably headline the All Undervalued Team.

All Undervalued Team: Daric Barton, 1b

Perhaps not surprisingly, it's most difficult to find an undervalued player at the first base slot. There are fewer skills at work at first base, so there are fewer opportunities to find undervalued players. By and large, firstbase comes down to offense. Clearly, Carlos Pena would have fit the bill prior to the 2007 season, but somehow he doesn't quite fit that label any longer.

I considered Nick Johnson, Casey Kotchman, James Loney, and Joey Votto, but ultimately decided on Daric Barton. Barton may not be too undervalued, but I suspect he's a bit under-appreciated by everyone not in the A's organization. Right or wrong, Barton was slotted behind Votto and Loney among first base prospects, due in large part to his lack of top notch power.

While all of the aforementioned players have their strengths and weaknesses, I went with Barton because he might well be the rarest of the rare: the "late count" hitter who rarely strikes out.

WALKS AND WHIFFS

While the strikeout has long been considered the worst possible outcome for hitters, the new wave of statistical analysis indicates that a strikeout is actually not much more detrimental than the aggregate of all the other kinds of outs.

However, that's a bit misleading, as it's not the same as saying that a swing and miss is not detrimental. A swing and a miss can guarantee an out, while contact may or may not result in an out. So, while a strikeout is essentially no worse than the aggregate of the other outs, putting the ball in play is much more advantageous than no contact, as it may not necessarily result in an out. Good things can happen if you put the ball in play, as you don't have a chance of winning the hit lottery, advancing a runner, or benefiting from a fielding error unless you make contact.

While that is all certainly true, there are actually a few ancillary benefits to strikeouts, which include drawing walks and making a pitcher work. By and large, a strikeout requires working deep into the count. If you work deep into the count, then you put yourself in a position to draw a walk. In addition, working deeper into counts can get a team into the opponents bullpen much earlier.

Generally speaking, hitters who don't strike out also don't walk very often. Walks and strikeouts often go hand in hand, as you cannot get either result without working deep into the count. Hitters who don't strikeout are typically the type who force early consequences to their plate appearance.

The top 10 players in pitches seen per plate appearance in 2007 were Reggie Willits (4.44), Jack Cust (4.40), Bobby Abreu (4.38), Todd Helton (4.34), Kevin Millar (4.32), Johnny Damon (4.30), Kevin Youkilis (4.27), Nick Swisher (4.25), Brandon Inge (4.23), and Pat Burrell (4.22).

All of these players are late count hitters and have strong walk rates, but also accumulate a substantial number of strikeouts. Typically, there is a degree of correlation between walks and strikeouts. However, the ultimate offensive player (i.e. Albert Pujols) would be one who can drive the ball, walk a great deal, and strikeout very little. Daric Barton is unique, because he might be able to do just that.

BARTON'S OFFENSE AND SWING

In his 2007 MLB debut, Barton saw 3.83 #P/PA and made contact at an 87% clip. He posted a line of .347/.429/.639/1.068 and displayed impressive power by hitting a homer every 18 At Bats. However, he's unlikely to sustain that level of power in 2008, as he has yet to demonstrate that kind of power in the minors. The power spike is likely the result of a small sample size more than anything else, but Barton does have more power projection. He's never going to be Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder, but he could develop 20-25 homerun power in time.

In his minor league career, Barton has posted a career line of .301/.412/.459/.871. In addition, he has managed to draw more walks (313) than strikeouts (266). Barton has tremendous plate discipline and does a great job of controlling the strike-zone. In addition to his great approach at the plate, Barton has a truly beautiful swing. It's smooth and short generating a lot of line drives.

Here's what it looks like:



In 2006 at AAA Sacramento, Barton posted a line drive percentage of 23%. In 2007, he posted a 21% clip at Sacramento and a 25% clip at the MLB level. As it stands, he doesn't have great power, but as he continues to fill out it should improve.

If his power improves a notch, then I could see Barton becoming a real Edgar Martinez type. Barton could be one of the purest hitters in baseball, just like Edgar used to be. And, also like Edgar, Barton could be one of the rare players who can post a career line of .300+/.400+/.500+. If the power doesn't come around, then his high batting average and elite on base skills will still make him a very valuable ballplayer.

As it stands, Barton is a pure hitter who may yet develop the power that enables him to be a complete hitter. His lack of power may have made him a bit undervalued, but even if the power doesn't develop he still has the hitting and on-base skills to generate tremendous production and value.

All Undervalued Team: Kevin Correia, RHS

Kevin Correia went to California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo before the Giants selected him with the 127th overall pick in the 4th round of the 2002 entry draft. Correia became the first player from that draft class to reach the majors when he made his debut in July of 2003.

He's 6'3", 202 lbs, bats right, and throws right. He has good size for a pitcher and he'll be 27 during the 2008 season.

REPERTOIRE

Correia features a low 90s fastball, a good circle change, and an average slider. However, what sets Correia apart is the movement he gets on his pitches, which can make his pitches truly electric. Former Giant Mike Matheny, highly regarded for his defensive prowess, once said that his hand would get bruised from catching Kevin Correia. Correia's pitches had so much movement on them that Matheny was not able to center the pitch in his catcher's mitt. If a catcher the caliber of Matheny has difficulty catching the pitch, how difficult must it be to hit?

However, while the movement on his pitches has been his biggest weapon, it has also been his biggest detriment. Correia has struggled to consistently throw strikes, due in large part to the movement he gets on his pitches. However, over the past couple of seasons, he has been able to control the movement of his pitchers better, so his command in the zone is improved.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

In part because of his control problems and in part because the Giants are an oddly run organization, Correia has been bounced around more than is healthy during his professional career. He has spent time in the minors every season from 2002-2005, has been called up and sent down multiple times during those seasons, and has been gone from the rotation to bullpen and back again several times over. At this point, the Giants would be wise to put him in the rotation and leave him there.

In each of the past two years, Correia has pushed his K/BB ratio up to or over 2.00. He spent all of 2006 in the bullpen and spent the first half of 2007 working in relief as well, but he was put back in the rotation in the second half due to the trade of Matt Morris and the team's decision to shutdown Tim Lincecum.

Once in the rotation, Correia made 8 starts in which he posted a 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 34/13 K/BB ratio in 46.0 innings. In total, Correia posted a 3.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, and 7.1 K/9 in 2007. If his 8 starts are any indication, he seems to be ready to take a step forward. In addition, it seems clear that he has made real strides in improving his control, as evidenced by the following:



Key
Strike%: Percentage of Pitches that are Strikes
1st%: Percentage of 1st Pitches that are Strikes
BB/9: Walks per 9 Innings Pitched
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 Innings Pitched

Overall, it seems clear that Correia has improved his control and command, which is the big key to unlocking his potential. If that's the case, then he could be a true sleeper for 2008.

FUTURE

While I desperately want the Reds to acquire Kevin Correia, it appears that he'll remain with the Gigantes. Hopefully, he'll be given the 5th starter slot, behind Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Noah Lowry. If his improved command is for real, then there's no reason why Correia can't have a breakout 2008 season. I actually think he's a better bet for both 2008 and the future than the recently acquired Edinson Volquez, but only time will tell.

All Undervalued Team: Morgan Ensberg, 3b

In honor of the fact that he was non-tendered this week, Morgan Ensberg gets the third baseman on the All Undervalued Team. Actually, he's long been one of my favorite players, so he would've gotten the nod anyway, but the fact that he has been cut loose just makes him an even better bargain.

AMATEUR CAREER

Ensberg attended USC and played the hot corner on the 1998 USC championship team. He's still the only player in USC history to post a 20 homer and 20 stolen base season. Ensberg was joined on the team by future teammates Jason Lane and Eric Munson.

The Astros drafted Ensberg with the 272nd overall pick in the 9th round of the 1998 draft.

ARMED ROBBERY

Unfortunately, Ensberg was also involved in one of the most unfortunate incidents in recent baseball history. On March 3rd, 2000, Morgan Ensberg, Keith Ginter, Derek Nicholson, Mike Rose, Eric Cole, and Aaron Miles were held at gunpoint in their minor league hotel room by armed robbers. All but Miles were bound hand and foot with plastic ties, had duct tape placed over their mouths, and blankets placed over their heads by the robbers in Ensberg's hotel room.

The robbers went from person to person taking their valuables when they heard Aaron Miles return to his adjacent room. They told the players that they'd be back soon with company and they left to get Miles. When they left, Rose was able to slip out of his plastic ties and lock the door behind them. Ensberg was also able to wriggle free of his ties, permanently scarring his wrists in the process, and call the police.

When the robbers heard the sirens, one jumped out of the second story window and fled, but the other forced Miles back into his room at gunpoint. The police escorted Ensberg and the others to safety, but the second gunman held Miles at gunpoint for 25 minutes. Miles, the son of a heavyweight boxer, took matters into his own hands. He attacked the robber and ended up wrestling over the gun when a SWAT team member broke through a window shooting the robber.

Thankfully, all the players escaped unharmed, but Ensberg still carries physical and emotional scars.

OFFENSIVE SKILLS

Ensberg is one of the streakiest offensive players around, but when he's on, he's very good. And, when he's off, he's still able to contribute with his secondary offensive skills.

When Ensberg is going well, he has power, patience, and the ability to hit for average. In 2005, Ensberg was undeniably going well, as he posted a line of .283/.388/.557/.945 with 36 homeruns, 86 runs, 101 RBI, and 85 walks.

However, that was the high point and his performance has been very volatile ever since. Despite the inconsistent performance, Ensberg still boasts an impressive career line of .265/.366/.476/.842. He has an impressive .131 BB/PA, sees 3.92 pitches per plate appearance, and on average hits a homerun every 19.5 At Bats.

On June 9, 2006, Ensberg tore a tendon in his shoulder and hasn't ever been able to get back on track. He suffered through substandard second half of 2006 and a disappointing 2007 season. However, he was also a bit unlucky in 2007, as he posted an impressive line drive percentage of 23% with Houston and 30% with San Diego. It's difficult to say how much the shoulder injury has impacted his performance, but he could still bounce back and be a very productive player in 2008.

At the plate. Ensberg seems a bit mechanical. He's not the most natural or graceful athlete and has a tendency to over think things at times. However, he's got a good, solid swing.

He has a small stride, an explosive hip rotation which provides good power, a fairly compact swing, and maintains good balance throughout. He can get pull happy, which makes him susceptible to breaking pitches on the outer half.

Ensberg has all the tools to be an impact offensive player, but time will tell if he can pull it together to get his career back on track. If his struggles were due to his shoulder injury, then he's got a good chance of bouncing back. But, only time will tell if it was the shoulder injury that was slowing him down.

DEFENSIVE SKILLS

On defense, Ensberg has very good range and rates in the upper echelon of third basemen defensively. He also has soft hands and an accurate arm, so his fielding percentage is solid. He makes the plays he supposed to make and his range allows him to reach balls that many others wouldn't.

Ensberg is currently 32, so his best defensive years may be behind him, but he's still got the ability to be a good, solid defensive player.

FUTURE

Time will tell whether Ensberg can bounce back to his peak level of performance, but he's the type of player who's worth rolling the dice on. Even if he doesn't bounce back, he'd still be a quality option to have on the bench.

If things break right, then Ensberg could flip the switch and again become an impact player who combines power, patience, and a good batting average.

All Undervalued Team: Matt Murton, LF

Matt Murton arrived in the majors with a bang in 2005, hitting .321/.386/.521/.907, but so far that has been the high point of his career. Despite his hot start, Murton has never been given an extended look in the starting lineup with the Cubs, who prefer bringing in big money free agent outfielders (Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, etc). That said, Murton is just far too good of a hitter to not be on this list.

AMATEUR CAREER AND DRAFT POSITION

Murton attended Georgia Tech University and earned Freshman All America Team Honors in 2001. In 2002, Murton posted a line of .344/.434/.536/.970 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases as a sophomore at Georgia Tech.

He was drafted by the Boston Red Sox as a supplemental pick (#32 overall) in the 2003 amateur draft. Murton was subsequently dealt to the Cubs along in the famous 4 team trade that netted the Red Sox Doug Mientkiewicz, Orlando Cabrera, and the 2004 World Series title.

MINOR LEAGUE CAREER

In 4 minor league seasons, Murton posted a line of .312/.383/.467/.850. He has 30 career homeruns, 35 stolen bases (74% clip), and a 128/178 BB/SO ratio.

Despite clearly being overqualified for the minors and talented enough to warrant some type of role at the Major League Level, Murton spent time in AAA with the Iowa Cubs in 2007. During his time there, Murton posted a line of .331/.407/.570/.977.

Clearly, Murton is a big leaguer, even if the Cubs haven't come to that realization as of yet.

OFFENSE

No matter what the level, all Murton does is hit. He's hit over .300 at high A ball, double A, triple A, and in the majors. It seems like could roll out of bed and hit .300.

That said, the important thing about Murton is that it is not an empty .300 average. He backs it up with strong on base skills, which only increases his value.

For his MLB career, Murton has walked in 9.4% of his plate appearances, sees 3.67 pitches per plate appearance (2006: 3.71, 2007: 3.75), and makes contact over 80% of the time.

Murton has posted a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 12.5 in 2005, 16.2 in 2006, and 7.3 in 2007.

For his MLB career, Murton has a line of .296/.365/.455/820.

DEFENSE

Murton is a very strong defensive leftfielder. Unfortunately, his arm limits him to leftfield, but he plays a top flight leftfield. For his career, Murton has a .986 fielding percentage and has posted a .900+ Revised Zone Rating in 2006 and 2007. His range stacks up well against the competition, as it would put him second behind only Eric Byrnes among the 2007 qualified leftfielders.

Murton is fundamentally sound, reads the ball off the bat very well, and has very good range. His arm has never been a strength, but he plays a very strong leftfield.


SCOUTING REPORT

Baseball America ranked Murton the 11th best prospect in the Cubs system in the 2005 Prospect Handbook.

Not only did general manager Jim Hendry pull off a four-team trade at the deadline last July that netted Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Gonzalez, but he also picked up Murton as well. Murton has the best pure hitting skills and strikezone judgment in the system. The Expos weren't interested in getting Murton from the Red Sox in the trade, so Hendry offered to give up Harris and take Murton at the last moment. He always hit well with wood bats in the Cape Cod league as an amateur, and Murton has had little trouble adapting to pro ball. Scouts don't project him to have quite as much power as they did when he was at Georgia Tech, but he should be at least a 20-homer guy. He needs to add loft to his swing to become more of a longball threat. He can put on a show in batting practice, having won home run derbies at the Connie Mack World Series (1998), Cape Cod League All-star game (2002), and Florida State League All-star game (2004). Murton is a good athlete for his size and has average speed. His biggest drawback is a weak arm that limits him to left field. He'll head to double-A this year and could be ready for Wrigley Field at some point in 2006.

The 2007 Baseball Prospectus included the following about Murton:

Murton's debut generated some fairly lofty expectations for 2006, and, except for a miserable stretch in June, he fully met them. Being a rookie and hitting a wall while playing for Dusty Baker meant that he lost his job for a while, of course, but his resurgence and the team's losing guaranteed him a spot in the second half. He has more power than comes through in his stats because his swing is so level; if he ever decides to alter it to add a little loft, he's liable to go from 10 to 30 homers in a flash, which will likely result in some unfortunate accusations given the tenor of the times.

And, they projected a line of .303/.365/.475 for Murton in 2007.

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

Murton seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle. He's a natural hitter, but lacks the top drawer power that reigns supreme in this age of steroid induced gorilla ball. However, the thing that is holding him back more than a lack of power is simply the lack of an opportunity.

The Cubs are a large market team that is always looking to make a splash, so Murton's professional approach at the plate and solid, but unspectacular game may not be enough to get him a shot at a starting job. Alfonso Soriano is the prime example and he looks to be looked However, he's a professional hitter who could blossom when given a full-time job.

Perhaps, the best thing that could happen to Murton is being dealt to a team that focuses on what he can do, rather than what he cannot.