Monday, June 15, 2009

2009 Shadow Draft

Just for posterity's sake, here's how I would have drafted the first 3 rounds:

Round 1 #8 -- Shelby Miller, rhp Brownwood HS

Supplemental Round 1 #43 -- Jason Kipnis, of ASU

Round 2 #57 -- David Holmberg, lhp Port Charlotte HS

Round 3 #88 -- Josh Spence, lhp ASU

The more I think about it, the more I like the Mike Leake pick. Still, I would have gone with Shelby Miller because of his upside, pure stuff, and clean mechanics. If everything breaks right for Miller, he should have more upside than Leake. Obviously, Miller also comes with significantly more risk than Leake, as he requires much more development time.

In the supplemental round, I would have rolled the dice on Jason Kipnis. I like his disciplined approach at the plate and his solid hitting skills. On the season, he is hitting a robust .382/.495/.724. There are questions on where he fits positionally, but I like the offensive game.

In the second and third rounds, I would have addressed the lack of southpaws in the system by grabbing two quality lefties. Holmberg is a smooth high school lefty with intriguing upside, while Spence is a polished, crafty lefty who excels without good velocity. Still, he manages to get the job done.

Anyway, that's the way I would gone, which speaks to why I'm not drafting for a professional baseball team.


  1. Drafting is somewhat of a craps game after the first couple rounds. We have no pitching prospects in the first 9 of the top 25. I was glad to see Leake who I think will be in the majors. Maloney and Fisher look like they belong (as of now) in Cincy.

  2. Hey 007,

    I couldn't agree more. I'm working on a write up on Leake (who should be pitching in the CWS today on one of the ESPN networks), but I'll say that I like the pick as well. Given the presence of Cueto, Harang, and Edinson, it was probably wise to go with the safer pick, especially when the safer pick still has a high ceiling.

    Even if Leake doesn't develop into a #1 starter, the Reds could use a solid #2/3 type starter who will move quickly up the ranks. Sacrificing a bit of upside for a lot less risk seems like a good trade off for an organization plagued by injured and underperforming pitching prospects.

    Maloney and Fisher are looking solid. Now, I'm waiting for Josh Roenicke to get the call and work some high leverage innings.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!!