The acquisition of Scott Rolen saves us all from having to watch Francisco hold down the hot corner. In the minors, Francisco posted an absurd 39 errors and scouting reports are dubious as to his defense. He has plus arm strength, but was unlikely to ever be more than Edwin Encarnacion Part Deux on defense.
As of late, Francisco has spent a bit of time in leftfield, so that may be his future destination. Still, it's obviously his bat that will need to carry him at the MLB level. To me, this promotion raises two questions, but first here is a look at Francisco doing what he does best:
Why Francisco instead of Todd Frazier?
I would imagine that the obvious question that leaps to the minds of most Reds fans is why Juan Francisco over Todd Frazier?
There really doesn't seem to be a good answer to that question. Frazier is a year older and as a college player he's quite simply the much more polished prospect. Juan Francisco is a year younger and his overall skill set is much more raw.
Between double-A and triple-A, Francisco has a line of .295/.329/.518/.847, while Frazier has a line of .292/.351/.481/.832. Pretty similar levels of production, so why has Frazier been bounced from defensive position to defensive position and been basically treated like a future utility player, while Francisco plays horrendous defense and still gets the coveted September call-up?
The only thought that leaps to mind is that the Reds value players with one elite skill higher than the "Jack of All Trades, Master of None" type players. Juan Francisco displays true light-tower power, but little else. Todd Frazier lacks flash, but is a very solid, heady ballplayer.
Another example would be the Reds belief that speed demon Willy Taveras is actually a valuable Major League Baseball player. He lacks any other discernible skill, but the Reds love the one elite skill that he possesses.
For better or worse (I'd argue the latter), the Reds seem dazzled by an elite tool to the exclusion of all else. The Reds prefer one elite tool to an overflowing toolbox. Of course, in this case, that leads to Juan Francisco, not Todd Frazier.
What is the future of Francisco in the Reds Organization?
The Scott Rolen acquisition forecloses an option that should have already been ruled out. The idea that Francisco could play a competent third base at the MLB level was unrealistic in the best of times. Now that Rolen is in the mix, Francisco will officially have to be moved to a different position.
As I mentioned in my most recent prospect write up of Francisco, his inevitable slide down the defensive spectrum would reduce the value of his bat. Now that time is upon us and I have questions as to whether his bat can carry him at an offense first position like leftfield or first base. Obviously, first base is occupied by Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso would rank higher up the depth chart than Francisco. And, quite frankly, I have questions as to whether he can be even an average leftfielder. What good does it do to have a potentially above average offensive talent if he gives away all of his above average production with his below average defense?
So, what does the future hold? Are the Reds calling him up because they view him as a viable option in leftfield for 2010? Given that Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are going to hold down two of the three outfield slots and Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Willy Taveras, and Joey Votto/Yonder Alonso in the mix for the final slot, that may not be a workable option.
The other option is that the Reds are calling up him simply to showcase him for a potential trade this offseason. This strikes me as the better option. The function of the farm system is to support the Major League club and that can be done by promoting homegrown talent or by trading prospects to acquire pieces that are a better fit for the team's needs.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Given the Reds preference for players with an elite tool and Dusty Baker's previously expressed admiration for Juan Francisco, they are likely giving Francisco a legitimate audition for a starting job in 2010, despite the fact that he might ultimately bring more value to the organization in trade.
or maybe the called up francisco because he is on the 40 man roster already and Frazier isn't. I think that is the more reasonable explanation.
ReplyDeleteHey Anon,
ReplyDeleteI was actually wondering if someone was going to bring up the 40-man roster issue. I considered it when I was writing it, but dismissed the notion pretty quickly. To be honest, I just don't see it as being a legitimate reason for promoting Francisco and keeping Frazier down on the farm.
First of all, there is A LOT of deadwood on the 40-man roster. If the Reds wanted to promote Frazier, then the procedural issues wouldn't preclude it. The 40-man roster currently includes such luminaries as Justin Lehr, Sam LeCure, Daryl Thompson, Kip Wells, Corky Miller, Craig Tatum, Kevin Barker, and Darnell McDonald. It wouldn't be all that difficult to find room for Frazier, if the Reds were so inclined.
I also don't foresee a need to protect a ton of prospects from the Rule V draft, so space on the 40-man roster this offseason really shouldn't be a problem either.
Finally, I wouldn't buy into a (yet to be mentioned) "service time" argument. Giving Frazier a cup of coffee at the Major League level would be very unlikely to have any impact on his free agency date. That's a concern that is becoming almost overblown by the media. It's an important consideration, but it doesn't come into play as often as it would seem.
To me, if the organization chose to use the 40-man as justification, then I would view it as more than a little disingenuous. There's a substantive reason behind the decision to not promote Frazier.
Anyway, thanks for the comment!!
Best,
Lark
My guess would be that the Reds would like Scott Rolen to work with him.
ReplyDeleteTime to switch allegiance to the Giants, bro. You won't have to lament about these types of decisions. Instead, you can bellow and moan about the lack of offense in the starting line up like the rest of us.
ReplyDeleteIm hoping for the showcase him, then trade him option. But thats just me.
ReplyDeleteIf the reds are seriously considering him for left field, Y not try alonso and frazier. the offense they would produce is just as good, probably better since they can take a walk, and they defense is much better with them
Anon,
ReplyDeleteInteresting thought. I suppose it's possible, but I fully expect the Reds to extend Rolen's contract to keep him in Cincy for a couple more years.
Even as good as Rolen is with the leather, I doubt even he could improve Francisco's defense at the hot corner.
Thanks for the comment!
Best,
Lark
Mike,
ReplyDeleteJust be glad that the Reds decided to pass on Tim Lincecum in the draft and that Matt Cain hasn't regressed back to his true level of performance this year.
Besides, the Reds are more interesting. They have a myriad of different problems and issues about which to complain. Variety is the spice of life.
Thanks for the comment.
Best,
Lark
Smitty,
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree more. If the Reds were smart, they would bundle up Francisco and Yonder to get a seriously valuable piece of the puzzle. Or, trade them separately to address multiple areas of need.
I still fail to see how either Francisco or Yonder fit in the future plans of the organization.
A trade would seem to be the best option for the Reds.
Thanks for the comment.
Best,
Lark
who would be your ss and lf for 2010 lark?
ReplyDeleteHey Smitty,
ReplyDeleteClearly, leftfield, shortstop, and catcher are the positions of need for 2010. If we are going with strictly in-house options, then I'd take Dickerson and Janish.
I'm disappointed that Dickerson didn't hit for more power, but I love his plus defense and plus on base skills. And, maybe I'm too optimistic here, but I think there is still upside left in his game.
As for Janish, his defense blows me away. He's very strong out there and his arm rates among the very, very best at shortstop. And, I still like his offensive game a little. I think he could be a serviceable offensive player, as he has a linedrive swing and good on-base skills.
Unfortunately/fortunately, the Reds will be looking to upgrade at those positions from outside the organization. Obviously, the Reds want to improve, but they are at the point where there are only a handful of positions where they can attempt to improve.
Clearly, they aren't going to improve over Stubbs in center, Votto at 1st, Phillips at 2b, Bruce in right, or Rolen at third. So, they'll need to focus on the other positions.
If I was looking to upgrade the leftfield position, I'd probably try to acquire Michael Taylor from the Phillies. He's a 6-6, 240 lb physical specimen who plays leftfield. I love his offensive game and his studious approach. His defensive skills are solid as well.
Given that the Phils have Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth under contract for several more years, they have no room for Taylor, who is pretty much big league ready. I'd gladly take him off their hands.
The Scott Rolen acquisition likely precludes the Reds from being big players in the free agent market, so improvement may need to come via trade. Michael Taylor is a guy I'd give some heavy consideration.
If not, then I'd give Dickerson the job with Heisey and Frazier waiting in the wings.
Thanks for the comment!
Best,
Lark