Another Day, Another Step Closer

While the Reds overall are playing much better baseball over the past couple of months, they are simultaneously carrying out an equally important goal. They are evaluating talent to see what they have and what they lack.

MAKE IT

This is especially true with the pitching staff, as the everyday lineup is pretty well set. However, it is nice to see Jorge Cantu performing well and David Ross above the Mendoza line. The real revelations have emerged in the bullpen, where Jared Burton, Bill Bray, and Jon Coutlangus have all established themselves as reliable relievers who can really help the bullpen in 2008.

Pitcher:_____ERA__WHIP__BB/9__K/9__GB/FB__Age
B.Bray:_____2.35___1.30___3.5___9.39___1.50___24
J.Burton:____2.73___1.24___5.2___8.18___1.37___26
J.Coutlangus:_3.82___1.51___6.2___7.91___1.24___26


These three young pitchers have stepped up to take the load off the back of David Weathers, who was trying to do it all in the first half. All three have robust strikeout rates and strong grounball tendencies, which is what you need to survive in Great American Ballpark. While the walk rates need to come down, those four would make a nice foundation for a 2008 bullpen, which is music to the ear of Reds fans everywhere.

BREAK IT

Unfortunately, the extended opportunity has also resulted in several players being dropped from consideration. At this point, it seems very clear that Phil Dumatrait is not a Major League pitcher. He's been given several starts, but cannot even get his ERA into single digits, so it's likely time to move on. Dumatrait was a long shot to contribute, but earned a look with his solid performance at AAA Louisville.

In addition, Stanford product Mike Gosling does not seem capable of holding down a job in a major league bullpen. He managed to post some decent numbers early, but the larger sample size has revealed him to be a poor bet.

Given how he's performed this year, it's hard to envision the Reds bringing Mike Stanton back in 2008, despite the fact that he's under contract. Unless Stanton improves in the early stages of 2008, he will be gone. He could be gone sooner, if the Reds can find a taker for his salary.

REMAINING QUESTION MARKS

There are still a few players on the bubble, who may make or break over the final month of the season. Gary Majewski, Marcus McBeth, and Brad Salmon are all still on the fence. Majewski has been better of late, but still not all that good. Patience in the organization is likely to be running out on Gary and he needs to step it up very soon. As for McBeth and Salmon, they both need to demonstrate that they can consistently contribute in 2008.

THE FUTURE

The Reds bullpen single handedly brought down the Reds season in 2007, so there is no way that the front office will allow it to happen again next year. Weathers, Burton, Bray, and Coutlangus seem like locks for the 2008 bullpen, but it remains to be seen who will claim the last three relief spots. The bottom line is that, as of now, the Reds have four quality relievers in the bullpen, which is three more than they had in the first half of the season.

Phil Dumatrait's Struggles and Demotion

After four starts, 13.1 innings pitched, and 21 earned runs allowed the Reds had seen enough, as they demoted Phil Dumatrait back to AAA Louisville.

Given his poor situational pitching, weak K/BB ratio, and general lack of command in the minors, his struggles at the MLB level shouldn't really come as much of a surprise. Unfortunately, at this point Dumatrait just is not good enough to be an asset at the major league level. Granted, it's a small sample size, but let's take a look at his pitch data to get a handle on his performance.

During his MLB stint, Dumatrait threw 294 pitches, 168 of which were strikes and 126 of which were balls. So, Dumatrait threw a strike only 57% of the time (Harang: 66%, Arroyo: 65%, Livingston: 65%). It is sometimes said that the most effective pitch in baseball is the first pitch strike. Getting ahead early in the count puts the pitcher in control of the PA and opens up many more options from his arsenal. Unfortunately, Dumatrait only threw a 1st pitch strike 55% of the time (Harang: 65%, Arroyo: 65%, Livingston: 64%).

Accordingly, it seems only logical that Dumatrait would spend more time behind in the count, which is evidenced by the fact that 5% of the plate appearance involved a 3-0 count (Harang: 4%, Arroyo: 4%, Livingston: 1%) which is a bit disturbing when you consider that he issued no intentional walks.

Dumatrait did manage to strike out 6 hitters and all were swinging strikeouts. Dumatrait only managed to get to an 0-2 count in 12% of the plate appearances (Harang: 23%, Arroyo: 19%, Livingston: 18%) and wasn't able to effectively finish off the hitter, which raises questions about the lack of an out pitch. In 33% of 0-2 count situations Dumatrait allowed a hit (Harang: 5%, Arroyo: 6%, Livingston: 4%).

Unfortunately, Dumatrait was done in by a lack of control and just being to hittable. It is very difficult to be successful in the majors if you can't miss bats. If a pitcher gives up too much contact, then he will struggle to maintain consistent success. Dumatrait just allowed to much contact, as 86% of the time contact was made by the hitter when swinging (Harang: 78%, Arroyo: 81%, Livingston: 82%). It may not seem like a big difference, but around 85% seems to be the tipping point, above which sustained MLB success is difficult.

Again, it is undeniably a small sample size, but it does reflect many of the same problems he demonstrated in the minors, only amplified by a better caliber hitter. Hopefully, Dumatrait will head back to the minors, work on his game, and be able to contribute to the Reds in the future. However, at this point, that seems like a bit of a long shot.

Dumi, Livingston, and Homegrown Pitching

After years of futility and a number of false starts, the Reds are finally beginning to build a productive farm system. The Reds have struggled for years to develop quality pitching, but slowly there is a trickle of talent beginning to reach the Majors.

The two blue chip pitching prospects in the Reds farm system, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, have both seen substantial success in the minors. Homer reached the Majors earlier this season, but is down in the minors on a rehab assignment. Johnny Cueto has been dominant at just about every level this year and is poised to make his big league debut either in September or in 2008.

Cueto is also emblematic of another vitally important development for the Reds organization, as he is one of the first prospects to be signed out of Latin America by the Reds revitalized international scouting effort. Adding good international prospects to the farm system each year in addition to those out of the draft is vital for the development of a good farm system. The Reds are finally back to doing so.

The Big Red Machine benefited greatly from international scouting, as Tony Perez was signed by the Reds in 1960 as an amateur free agent, Dave Concepcion was signed as an amateur free agent by the Reds in 1967, as were a few other lesser lights like Manny Sarmiento. Unfortunately, that stream of talent would eventually be dammed up by a shortsighted owner.

Under former owner Marge Schott, the Reds scouting and player development budgets were slashed. Marge believed that she could save money in these areas and plow some of the savings into the Major League roster by doing so. In actuality, Marge wasn't saving money at all, rather she was simply shifting the cost of her actions onto the backs of future Reds' teams. The Reds' organization has had to carry that heavy burden around for the past decade or two.

The Reds enjoyed some short term success, but they mortgaged the future to do so. The cost effective flow of young talent dried up, leaving the Reds struggling to fill holes at the Major League level with expensive free agents (Eric Milton, anyone?). The true cost of Marge Schott's decision is impossible to calculate, but the Reds certainly paid a heavy, heavy price.

While Bailey and Cueto are on the cusp of making their impact at the Major League level, it is a good idea to see what the Reds have to fill the void until they are ready. Bobby Livingston and Phil Dumatrait were both acquired from other organizations, but both are being viewed as potential starting pitchers for the Reds. So, let's take a look and see what we can expect out of them.

Phil Dumatrait has control problems and average stuff. In AAA Louisville this year, he had a 70/48 K/BB ratio in 118.2 innings. Earlier in the year, it was even worse and at times it was almost a 1-to-1 ratio. His promotion to the majors and a more advanced level of competition has only exacerbated the problem. On the season, Dumatrait has a 8.74 ERA, a 2.56 WHIP, a 7.2 BB/9, a 5.6 K/9, and a 0.56 GB/FB ratio in the majors. Granted, it's only been 3 starts and 11.1 innings, but it isn't an encouraging start.

Another disturbing trend is Dumatrait's performance with runners on base. At AAA this year, Dumatrait had a 44/24 K/BB ratio in 60.0 innings pitched with no one on base. However, in 58.2 innings pitched with runners on base, Dumatrait had a 26/24 K/BB ratio. In 31.0 innings pitched with runners in scoring position, Dumatrait had a 12/17 K/BB ratio.

In short, the more crucial the situation, the worse his K/BB ratio. His HR/9 rate also worsens in crucial situations.

Phil Dumatrait 2007 AAA Performance
Situation:____K/9___BB/9 ___HR/9
Bases Empty: ___6.6 ____3.6_____0.6__
Runners On: ____4.0____3.7_____ 0.8__
Scoring Position:__3.5____4.9_____0.9__


That is not a positive trend and to expect much out of Dumatrait would be unwise. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many, strikes out too few, and seems to pitch worse the more crucial the situation. At this point, it seems unlikely that Dumatrait is ready to be a successful major league baseball pitcher. So, our nation turns its lonely eyes to Bobby Livingston.

On the season, Bobby Livingston has a 4.70 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, a 4.0 K/9, a 1.4 BB/9, and a 1.36 GB/FB ratio.

In 56.2 innings pitched at AAA with the bases empty, Livingston had a 38/8 K/BB ratio. In 47.2 innings pitched with Runners on Base, Livingston had a 25/9 K/BB ratio. In 26.2 innings pitched with runners in scoring position, Livingston had a 17/6 K/BB ratio.

In short, Bobby fared a bit worse as the situation got more crucial, but overall performed better than Dumatrait. Livingston also did a much better job avoiding the homerun in crucial situations.

Bobby Livingston 2007 AAA Performance
Situation:_____K/9 ___BB/9 ___HR/9
Bases Empty: ____6.0_____1.3_____0.6__
Runners On: _____4.7_____1.7_____0.6__
Scoring Position:___5.8____2.0_____0.7__

It is often said that Dumatrait has better stuff, but that Livingston is a craftier pitcher. Perhaps these numbers begin to bear that out, as Livingston was able to maintain his level of performance more successfully than Dumatrait.

At this point, even though he was roughed up today, Bobby Livingston seems to be a more viable option to fill the 5th spot in the rotation in 2008. Livingston walks few and gets a heavy percentage of groundballs, but needs to do a better job of missing bats. That said, his performance and his baseball I.Q. make him a better bet for success in the 5th slot in the rotation.