Great News out of Reds-ville, Affeldt Signs with the Giants

In what looks like a clear win/win situation, the Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a two year deal worth $4M per season. The Giants get a very effective lefty who can handle a heavy workload (78.1 Innings in 2008) and the Reds get a compensatory draft pick and salary relief to sign a replacement.

If the compensatory pick wasn't available, then I would have been happy to have Affeldt back on the $8M deal the Giants cut. However, the Giants and Reds weren't in the same situation, as the draft pick tips the scales the Reds gambled on Affeldt last off-season on a one year contract and it paid off in a big way. It's impossible for an outsider to say that the Reds planned to sign Affeldt in hopes of landing a compensatory pick, but one can certainly hope. If that wasn't the plan, then hopefully they can now see the value in churning players. And, hopefully they can see it in a hurry, because they are waffling back and forth on David Weathers.

Before the free agency period began, Walt Jocketty stated that they had made an offer to Weathers and I was none-to-pleased. However, Weathers and his agent stated that no offer had been made. When free agency arrived, Weathers announced that he had "flipped the page" on the Reds and it looked like a second compensatory pick was forthcoming. However, it looks like the Reds are back in the mix, as negotiations are on-going.

One would have to hope that the Reds realize that the draft pick is going to yield more value to the organization than a 39 year old reliever, but the Reds may just choose to ride the value of Weathers right into the ground.

Turning back to Affeldt, his departure opens up a slot in the bullpen for a second southpaw. Personally, I'd be very interested in seeing what Danny Herrera could do as the second lefty out of the bullpen. Billy Bray should be just fine as the primary lefty, but the Reds seem heistant to rely on Herrera. They may well be right, as depth is an important attribute for an MLB team, but I think Herrera and Matt Maloney could both do a nice job out of the bullpen. I'd still like to see Maloney in the rotation, but if he falls short then he could be in the mix for the spot in the bullpen vacated by Jeremy Affeldt.

In 2008, Herrera struck out 9.82 batters per nine innings and posted a 3.50 GB/FB ratio. In 7.1 innings, Herrera racked up 8 strikeouts, 14 ground balls, 4 fly balls, and 4 line drives. Unfortunately, those stats come with a 7.36 ERA, but that is likely the result of his poor luck. He posted a very unlucky BABIP at .415 (should be ~ .300) and LOB% at 58.8% (should be around 70%), so he allowed more hits than was to be expected and stranded fewer runners than you would expect. Admittedly, it's difficult to draw any significant conclusions based on such a small sample size, but I do think there are some real positives there. Best of all, Herrera is a groundball machine, which helped him succeed at high altitude for the University of New Mexico. Of course, he doesn't fit the mold of a major league pitcher, topping out at 5'7" and 83.8 mph. Still, height and velocity aren't everything, so Herrera could be an intriguing fit in Great American Ballpark. But, will he get a chance?

Even with the new GM, Reds still don't quite get it...

News out of Redsville today that GM Walt already has two offers out to keep two free agents with the club. Disappointingly, though not surprisingly, those two are Jerry Hairston Jr. and David Weathers.

General manager Walt Jocketty wouldn’t list all of the free agents on the current roster that the Reds are interested in bringing back.

But Jocketty did say the club has made proposals to reliever David Weathers and outfielder/infielder Jerry Hairston Jr.

“We’re waiting to hear back from their agents,” Jocketty said.

Weathers and Hairston had the best years of the free agents on the roster.

Weathers, 38, was a key part of the bullpen last year. He went 4-6 with a 3.25 ERA in 72 games. His ERA was 2.60 over his last 44 games. He has averaged 70 games the last four seasons.

Starting with the obvious, Hairston is just the last in the long line of crusty veterans to experience a rebirth in the restorative fountain-of-youth waters of Great American Ballpark. However, the Reds would be wise not to invest heavily in Hairston and certainly not more than a one year contract.

In the 3 years prior to 2008, Hairston hit a combined .254/.315/.366/.681. Last year, Hairston hit .410/.471/.590/1.061 at home and a familiar .252/.307/.396/.703 on the road. His road performance is right in line with his 2005-2007 level of performance, which is more than a little disconcerting.

If the Reds can get JHJ signed to an inexpensive, 1-year contract then he might be a solid option off the bench. However, given the Reds track record I wouldn't be surprised to see an overpayment in terms of both money and years. If so, they'll be overvaluing a small sample size and overlooking the statistical inflation created by Great American Ballpark.

As for Weathers, re-signing him would involve a more subtle error in judgment, but one the Reds continually seem to make.

Weathers wasn't bad in 2008. In fact, he was relatively solid, posting a 3.25 ERA, but his peripherals weren't great. He posted a 6.0 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and a 1.53 WHIP. However, my objection to Weathers isn't his performance, but rather his age.

Weathers is 39 years old and by any measure his career is winding down. So, the Reds essentially have two options. They could maintain the status quo and resign Weathers to another contract. By doing so, they will lock in ~70 average innings worth of production from Weathers. However, he's likely to decline due to his age. So, the real issue on Weathers is this:

Do you exchange the asset to keep the value in the organization for the long-term? Or, do you keep the asset in the organization and run it into the ground until there isn't a speck of value left?

To me, it seems obvious. You cash in the value remaining in Weathers and plug it back in at the bottom levels of the organization. The Reds can't afford to ride their assets until there is zero value left. They have to buy into the Value Cycle and seriously commit to it. To do so, they have to develop talent and then be willing to cut ties with it while it still possesses some value. As of now, they have the first part down, but they haven't yet demonstrated a willingness to churn any of that talent.

What the Reds SHOULD do with Weathers is offer him arbitration and collect the compensatory pick(s). Last offseason, Weathers was the last Type A NL reliever, so at the very least he'll warrant Type B compensation this offseason. It might actually be better for the Reds if he were to be classified as a Type B free agent, as teams may not be willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign Weathers. Regardless, the Reds can likely let Weathers walk for a pick and then replace his production by signing a Type B free agent reliever without forfeiting a pick of their own. They would lose nothing in production or cost, but would net a compensatory pick they wouldn't otherwise have.

By churning talent, the Reds would bring additional talent into the organization to replenish the farm system without losing anything of value. To be successful in the majors, you have to buy into the Value Cycle and be absolutely ruthless in implementing it. You HAVE to churn players to maximize value, but sadly the Reds don't appear to be doing it with David Weathers.

If the Reds sign Weathers, then value will be leaving the organization.

Another Day, Another Step Closer

While the Reds overall are playing much better baseball over the past couple of months, they are simultaneously carrying out an equally important goal. They are evaluating talent to see what they have and what they lack.

MAKE IT

This is especially true with the pitching staff, as the everyday lineup is pretty well set. However, it is nice to see Jorge Cantu performing well and David Ross above the Mendoza line. The real revelations have emerged in the bullpen, where Jared Burton, Bill Bray, and Jon Coutlangus have all established themselves as reliable relievers who can really help the bullpen in 2008.

Pitcher:_____ERA__WHIP__BB/9__K/9__GB/FB__Age
B.Bray:_____2.35___1.30___3.5___9.39___1.50___24
J.Burton:____2.73___1.24___5.2___8.18___1.37___26
J.Coutlangus:_3.82___1.51___6.2___7.91___1.24___26


These three young pitchers have stepped up to take the load off the back of David Weathers, who was trying to do it all in the first half. All three have robust strikeout rates and strong grounball tendencies, which is what you need to survive in Great American Ballpark. While the walk rates need to come down, those four would make a nice foundation for a 2008 bullpen, which is music to the ear of Reds fans everywhere.

BREAK IT

Unfortunately, the extended opportunity has also resulted in several players being dropped from consideration. At this point, it seems very clear that Phil Dumatrait is not a Major League pitcher. He's been given several starts, but cannot even get his ERA into single digits, so it's likely time to move on. Dumatrait was a long shot to contribute, but earned a look with his solid performance at AAA Louisville.

In addition, Stanford product Mike Gosling does not seem capable of holding down a job in a major league bullpen. He managed to post some decent numbers early, but the larger sample size has revealed him to be a poor bet.

Given how he's performed this year, it's hard to envision the Reds bringing Mike Stanton back in 2008, despite the fact that he's under contract. Unless Stanton improves in the early stages of 2008, he will be gone. He could be gone sooner, if the Reds can find a taker for his salary.

REMAINING QUESTION MARKS

There are still a few players on the bubble, who may make or break over the final month of the season. Gary Majewski, Marcus McBeth, and Brad Salmon are all still on the fence. Majewski has been better of late, but still not all that good. Patience in the organization is likely to be running out on Gary and he needs to step it up very soon. As for McBeth and Salmon, they both need to demonstrate that they can consistently contribute in 2008.

THE FUTURE

The Reds bullpen single handedly brought down the Reds season in 2007, so there is no way that the front office will allow it to happen again next year. Weathers, Burton, Bray, and Coutlangus seem like locks for the 2008 bullpen, but it remains to be seen who will claim the last three relief spots. The bottom line is that, as of now, the Reds have four quality relievers in the bullpen, which is three more than they had in the first half of the season.

Random Thoughts in August

*** Through Thursday's games, the only team in the NL Central who has scored MORE runs than they have allowed is the Chicago Cubs (RS: 607, RA: 559). Even the mighty BrewCrew has faded to the point where they have allowed more than they've scored. The Comedy Central lives on.

*** The Reds have been playing great baseball as of late, it's just unfortunate that it took them so long to play up to their potential. They've always had the talent, but the bullpen never allowed the team to succeed.

*** Aaron Harang continues to amaze. After the Pirates took both games of the Tuesday doubleheader, Harang stepped forward and played the role of stopper to perfection. We haven't had a top flight pitcher like Harang on the Reds in a long time. If the Reds had a better team, then he'd be in the mix for Cy Young consideration. Jake Peavy is having an unbelievable season and should win the award in a walk, but Harang should at least be in the discussion.

*** Brandon Phillips is quickly approaching a 30/30 season. He has 26 homers and 25 steals on the season and ranks as one of the great acquisitions in baseball over the past decade. Hopefully, the Reds will keep him in Cincy for years to come.

*** Much like 2006, the bullpen this year has taken a big step forward after the All Star game. The emergence of Jared Burton and Billy Bray coupled with the continued excellence of David Weathers has given the Reds something resembling a solid bullpen. Bray and Burton have finally given the Reds a bridge from the starters to the 9th inning and David Weathers. Bray, Burton, Coutlangus, and Marcus McBeth could be the foundation of a rock solid bullpen in the future.

*** Interesting to see Bud Selig weighing in on the future Houston manager. In an interview, Selig threw his support behind interim manager Cecil Cooper and pointing to the importance of minority hiring in baseball. While I agree about the importance of bringing minorities into the ranks of MLB managers, it seems odd and inappropriate that the commissioner would express his preference before the hiring process has even gotten underway.

*** Another day, another loss for the ChiSox, another tirade from Ozzie Guillen. As much as I enjoyed watching him as a player, I can't imagine it would be much fun to play for Ozzie the manager. Here's a glimpse:

"I'm tired of seeing that [expletive], day in and day out. And I don't want to spend a miserable September seeing the same [expletive]. If I have to see the same [expletive], I told [team GM Kenny Williams], 'Bring somebody up. [Expletive] it.' If it's my fault, I should be moving out of here then. If it's my fault, [expletive] fire my ass and I'll be fine. I have the job to do, and I get paid a lot of [expletive] money to make this club work, but it's not easy to work with people like that. It's not easy.'' ''You see this since April,'' Guillen said. ''I keep giving people a chance to succeed. A pat on the back. I wish I played for a manager like that. I swear to God I wish I could have played for a [expletive] manager like that. Every time you fail and keep putting guys out there who fail day-in and day-out, that's easy to play."

Ozzie Guillien isn't the type of manager that seems likely to have a long tenure. That kind of volatility doesn't play well in a losing clubhouse. If the Sox don't turn things around soon, Ozzie might not be long for the job.

*** It's still very earlier, but despite the Reds recent resurgence they are still likely to have a high draft pick. At this point, UCLA shortstop Brandon Crawford looks like the real deal. As of late, the Reds have been focusing on adding prospects who play premier defensive positions (Stubbs, Mesoraco). Crawford looks to have the complete, well-rounded game that would make him a fine addition to any team. Maybe the Reds will give him a look in next year's draft.

*** Homer Bailey continues to rehab at High A Sarasota, but the results haven't been great. At this point, the Reds might be better off leaving him in the minors and letting him start fresh next year.

*** Sad to see Bobby Livingston injured, as he was just beginning to establish himself in the big leagues. Livingston had to shut it down with a torn labrum of his left shoulder, which could be career threatening. His numbers had fallen off as of late, but he was interjecting himself into the picture for 2008. Livingston never survived on pure stuff, but rather guile and control. Whether that technique makes it easier or harder for Livingston to comeback remains to be seen, but I'll be pulling for him.

*** Early returns indicate that Wayne Krivsky may have found another diamond in the rough. In 15 ABs in Cincy, Jorge Cantu has posted a line of .400/.471/.667/1.137. While his glove may never enable him to be a full-time starter, the bargain basement price that Krivsky paid makes it acceptable for the Reds to use him in any role. Any production they get him out of him is pure profit. Krivsky strikes again!!!