The Source of Harang's Struggles?

Well, it was another surprisingly ineffective performance for Reds' workhorse starter Aaron Harang. Harang is usually Mr. Dependable. "Steady like a train, sharp like a razor." Unfortunately, that just hasn't been the case this season.

Harang continued his lackluster performance in his start against the Chicago Cubs tonight. Harang toed the slab in Wrigley Field, but didn't find the confines to be so friendly. The Cubs touched up Harang for 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings, which brought Harang's ERA up to a disturbing 4.76. Perhaps even more disturbing are the 7 walks allowed by Harang, who is usually very stingy with the free passes.

Clearly, something isn't right with Harang, but what could it be?

Mix of Pitches

In 2007, Harang was his usual successful self. He posted a 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and an 8.5 K/9.

To achieve those results, Harang utilized the following mix of pitches:

Fastball: 69.1% (90.1 MPH)
Slider: 19.5% (82.7 MPH)
Curveball: 4.5% (75.1 MPH)
Changeup: 6.0% (82.2 MPH)

So far in 2008, Harang has posted a 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 7.9 K/9. To get those results, he has used the following mix of pitches:

Fastball: 70.7% (89.8 MPH)
Silder: 24.2% (81.2 MPH)
Curveball: 2.4% (75.3 MPH)
Changeup: 2.6% (81.5 MPH)

So, in 2008, he is throwing more fastballs and sliders. He has become even more of a two pitch pitcher, which can't be helping his cause. In addition, his fastball and slider velocity are both down a tick.

Unfortunately, Harang is also getting fewer groundballs, as his GB/FB ratio has dropped from 1.00 in 2007 to 0.77 in 2008.

The Cause of it all: The Relief Stint?

While it may be difficult to pinpoint exactly WHY Harang has struggled, it's fairly obvious WHEN his struggles started.

On May 25th, the Reds were in San Diego. The game ultimately went a full 18 innings, meaning the Reds played the equivalent of two full baseball games. In that game, the Reds used 10 pitchers. Starter Matt Belisle worked only 4.1 innings pitched and Aaron Harang was the 9th pitcher to enter the game and worked 4.0 innings on two days rest.

In the game, Harang was very effective. He struck out 9 batters and allowed only 1 walk and 2 hits. While the encroaching shadows created by the late afternoon sun undoubtedly help, Harang was effective enough to work almost as many innings as the Reds' starting pitcher. Harang's heroics extended the game, but it was all for nothing as the Reds ultimately lost in the 18th inning.

While Harang was tremendous that day, it's clear that he hasn't been the same since. Prior to the May 25th game, Harang had an ERA of 3.50 and had made 11 starts. In those 11 starts, Harang had allowed 3 runs or fewer 8 times. In those 11 starts, he had pitched 6.0 innings or more 10 times.

After the May 25th relief appearance on short rest, Harang has made 8 starts and now has an ERA of 4.76. In those 8 starts, Harang has allowed 3 runs or fewer only 3 times. In those 11 starts, he pitched 6.0 innings or more only 3 times.

Just How Bad Has Harang Been?

In the 44.1 innings he has pitched since his ill-fated relief stint, Harang has allowed 36 earned runs!!! That makes for a whopping 7.31 ERA!!! The Reds one time ace has clearly fallen on hard times and it's not difficult to fathom what needs to happen. The Reds either need to adjust the rotation before and after the All-Star break to ensure that Harang gets the maximum amount of rest possible between starts. Or, they simply need to place him on the DL to give him time to recover and re-energize. If the Reds are going to be competitive any time soon, they'll need a healthy and effective Aaron Harang, so they need to do right by him now.

This season is clearly slipping away, but having a healthy Harang would help the Reds on the field and help the fans maintain their sanity in what is looking like yet another lost season.

All Undervalued Team: Aaron Harang, RHS

As unbelievable as it seems, Aaron Harang is STILL undervalued around Major League Baseball. so he qualifies for our team. Maybe it's because he pitches in Cincinnati, doesn't light up the radar gun, or just lacks an oversized personality, but whatever the reason Aaron Harang isn't appreciated like he should be.

ARRIVAL IN RED

The Reds stole Aaron Harang from the A's, trading Jose Guillen to the East Bay for Aaron Harang, Jeff Bruksch, and Joe Valentine. It was hands down the best Reds trade in the past 15 years, but it was completed by co-interim GMs Brad Kullman and Leland Maddox. Krivsky has made some solid trades, but the Aaron Harang trade is beyond compare.

Harang attended San Diego State University and was drafted by the Rangers in the 6th round of the 1999 draft. In 2000, the Rangers subsequently traded him to the A's along with Ryan Cullen for Randy Velarde.

Harang spent parts of two seasons in Oakland, but was made expendable by the presence of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden. Surprisingly enough, Harang is now indisputably the most valuable pitcher out of the entire group. Harang has become a legitimate #1 starter and the linchpin of the Reds rotation.

#1 STARTER PRODUCTION

I'm not sure there's ever been a less heralded #1 starter in baseball. Harang has posted 3 consecutive seasons of stellar production. In fact, he's actually gotten better in each of the least four seasons.

Over the past four seasons:

**His ERA has dropped from 4.86 to 3.83 to 3.76 to 3.73.

**His WHIP has fallen from 1.43 to 1.27 to 1.27 to 1.14.

**His BB/9 has fallen 3.0 to 2.2 to 2.2 to 2.0.

**His K/9 has risen from 7.0 to 6.9 to 8.3 to 8.5.

In 2007, Harang threw a first pitch strike 66% of the time and 67% of all of his pitches were strikes. In addition, only 3% of opposition plate appearances resulted in a 3-0 count, while 24% of opposition plate appearances resulted in an 0-2 count. Harang threw first pitch strikes often and rarely fell behind, which helped him posted an NL best 4.19 K/BB ratio.

On top of it all, Harang has somehow managed to do it in front of a porous defense in a bandbox home ballpark. It's scary to think of the numbers he would put up in front of a top flight defense or a more pitcher friendly park. In 2007, the Reds as a team had a DER of only .679, which was well below the NL average of .691. In short, the Reds turn far fewer balls into outs than other defenses in the NL, which drags down the numbers of the entire pitching staff, Harang included.

On top of it all, Harang isn't just an ace, he's also a workhorse, logging a total of 677.2 innings over the last three seasons. So, he doesn't just provide a high level of production, he provides a massive amount of that production. A pitcher's impact is not just a function of his performance, but also his workload.

Rich Harden can pitch at a Johan Santana like level, but it's largely irrelevant because he can't handle a workload heavy enough to maximize his impact. Barry Zito can handle a very heavy workload, but doesn't perform at a very high level anymore, so his impact is minimized. Harang, on the other hand, performs at a very high level and works a lot of innings, which maximizes his impact on the fortunes of the Reds.

Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young Award in 2007, but it's fair to wonder if Harang would've won it if he and Peavy swapped teams. Again, in 2007, the Reds had a .679 DER, while the Padres posted a .701 DER. In addition, Petco Park is the best pitcher's park in baseball, while Great American BallPark is one of the worst. Peavy would probably still be a tick better, but it wouldn't be by much. Harang is that good.

FUTURE

At this point, I'm not sure what Harang has to do to earn the respect he deserves, but it will probably take the Reds making the playoffs. At that point, maybe the national media would wake up and realize what they have been missing. Until that time, Aaron Harang can comfortably headline the All Undervalued Team.

Mackanin's Last Straw?

For those in favor of bringing Pete Mackanin back for 2008, today's game seems to be the prosecution's exhibit A when making the case against it.

It's the end of a long season and Aaron Harang has been nothing short of brilliant for the Reds in 2007. If there is a more important player for the Reds chances in 2008, I don't know who it would be.

That said, seeing Pete Mackanin leave Harang out there in his final start to throw 125 pitches was mind boggling. Given the Reds overflowing bullpen and their need to get a look at some of the young relievers so they can properly evaluate them, it's hard to find any support for making Harang work so hard. It would be one thing if the game had playoff implications, but the Cubs have already clinched the NL Central, so there is no reason why Harang should have been worked so hard.

Despite Mackanin's poor handling of the situation, it's hard not to be amazed by Harang. Of his 125 pitches, Harang threw 95 strikes. A remarkable game from the undisputed ace of the staff, but it would be nice to have him healthy and productive in 2008.

The Reds ran out of steam over the final couple of weeks, which may be a good thing for the Reds. They have gone 9-17 in September and lost their last 7 in a row. This collapse is proof positive that the Reds improved play had less to do with the hiring of Mackanin than it did the firing of Narron. Sometimes change is just good for change's sake. Hopefully, the Reds will bring in a highly qualified and competent manager for 2008 and show Mackanin the door. Mackanin doesn't deserve to be considered for the 2008 managerial job, but rather just deserves thanks for keeping the ship off the rocks over the second half of the season.

Random Thoughts in August

*** Through Thursday's games, the only team in the NL Central who has scored MORE runs than they have allowed is the Chicago Cubs (RS: 607, RA: 559). Even the mighty BrewCrew has faded to the point where they have allowed more than they've scored. The Comedy Central lives on.

*** The Reds have been playing great baseball as of late, it's just unfortunate that it took them so long to play up to their potential. They've always had the talent, but the bullpen never allowed the team to succeed.

*** Aaron Harang continues to amaze. After the Pirates took both games of the Tuesday doubleheader, Harang stepped forward and played the role of stopper to perfection. We haven't had a top flight pitcher like Harang on the Reds in a long time. If the Reds had a better team, then he'd be in the mix for Cy Young consideration. Jake Peavy is having an unbelievable season and should win the award in a walk, but Harang should at least be in the discussion.

*** Brandon Phillips is quickly approaching a 30/30 season. He has 26 homers and 25 steals on the season and ranks as one of the great acquisitions in baseball over the past decade. Hopefully, the Reds will keep him in Cincy for years to come.

*** Much like 2006, the bullpen this year has taken a big step forward after the All Star game. The emergence of Jared Burton and Billy Bray coupled with the continued excellence of David Weathers has given the Reds something resembling a solid bullpen. Bray and Burton have finally given the Reds a bridge from the starters to the 9th inning and David Weathers. Bray, Burton, Coutlangus, and Marcus McBeth could be the foundation of a rock solid bullpen in the future.

*** Interesting to see Bud Selig weighing in on the future Houston manager. In an interview, Selig threw his support behind interim manager Cecil Cooper and pointing to the importance of minority hiring in baseball. While I agree about the importance of bringing minorities into the ranks of MLB managers, it seems odd and inappropriate that the commissioner would express his preference before the hiring process has even gotten underway.

*** Another day, another loss for the ChiSox, another tirade from Ozzie Guillen. As much as I enjoyed watching him as a player, I can't imagine it would be much fun to play for Ozzie the manager. Here's a glimpse:

"I'm tired of seeing that [expletive], day in and day out. And I don't want to spend a miserable September seeing the same [expletive]. If I have to see the same [expletive], I told [team GM Kenny Williams], 'Bring somebody up. [Expletive] it.' If it's my fault, I should be moving out of here then. If it's my fault, [expletive] fire my ass and I'll be fine. I have the job to do, and I get paid a lot of [expletive] money to make this club work, but it's not easy to work with people like that. It's not easy.'' ''You see this since April,'' Guillen said. ''I keep giving people a chance to succeed. A pat on the back. I wish I played for a manager like that. I swear to God I wish I could have played for a [expletive] manager like that. Every time you fail and keep putting guys out there who fail day-in and day-out, that's easy to play."

Ozzie Guillien isn't the type of manager that seems likely to have a long tenure. That kind of volatility doesn't play well in a losing clubhouse. If the Sox don't turn things around soon, Ozzie might not be long for the job.

*** It's still very earlier, but despite the Reds recent resurgence they are still likely to have a high draft pick. At this point, UCLA shortstop Brandon Crawford looks like the real deal. As of late, the Reds have been focusing on adding prospects who play premier defensive positions (Stubbs, Mesoraco). Crawford looks to have the complete, well-rounded game that would make him a fine addition to any team. Maybe the Reds will give him a look in next year's draft.

*** Homer Bailey continues to rehab at High A Sarasota, but the results haven't been great. At this point, the Reds might be better off leaving him in the minors and letting him start fresh next year.

*** Sad to see Bobby Livingston injured, as he was just beginning to establish himself in the big leagues. Livingston had to shut it down with a torn labrum of his left shoulder, which could be career threatening. His numbers had fallen off as of late, but he was interjecting himself into the picture for 2008. Livingston never survived on pure stuff, but rather guile and control. Whether that technique makes it easier or harder for Livingston to comeback remains to be seen, but I'll be pulling for him.

*** Early returns indicate that Wayne Krivsky may have found another diamond in the rough. In 15 ABs in Cincy, Jorge Cantu has posted a line of .400/.471/.667/1.137. While his glove may never enable him to be a full-time starter, the bargain basement price that Krivsky paid makes it acceptable for the Reds to use him in any role. Any production they get him out of him is pure profit. Krivsky strikes again!!!

Harang vs. Indians

There's been a lot of talk about Aaron Harang's "struggles" this season, but I think it's clear that he's pitching better in 2007 than he did in 2006.

Including the 7 strong innings he pitched today against a very tough Indian team, here's how Harang's numbers stack up against 2006 in all the important categories.

2006
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
BB/9: 2.2
K/9: 8.3
HR/9: 1.08

2007
ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.17
BB/9: 1.9
K/9: 8.1
HR/9: 0.77