Great News out of Reds-ville, Affeldt Signs with the Giants

In what looks like a clear win/win situation, the Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a two year deal worth $4M per season. The Giants get a very effective lefty who can handle a heavy workload (78.1 Innings in 2008) and the Reds get a compensatory draft pick and salary relief to sign a replacement.

If the compensatory pick wasn't available, then I would have been happy to have Affeldt back on the $8M deal the Giants cut. However, the Giants and Reds weren't in the same situation, as the draft pick tips the scales the Reds gambled on Affeldt last off-season on a one year contract and it paid off in a big way. It's impossible for an outsider to say that the Reds planned to sign Affeldt in hopes of landing a compensatory pick, but one can certainly hope. If that wasn't the plan, then hopefully they can now see the value in churning players. And, hopefully they can see it in a hurry, because they are waffling back and forth on David Weathers.

Before the free agency period began, Walt Jocketty stated that they had made an offer to Weathers and I was none-to-pleased. However, Weathers and his agent stated that no offer had been made. When free agency arrived, Weathers announced that he had "flipped the page" on the Reds and it looked like a second compensatory pick was forthcoming. However, it looks like the Reds are back in the mix, as negotiations are on-going.

One would have to hope that the Reds realize that the draft pick is going to yield more value to the organization than a 39 year old reliever, but the Reds may just choose to ride the value of Weathers right into the ground.

Turning back to Affeldt, his departure opens up a slot in the bullpen for a second southpaw. Personally, I'd be very interested in seeing what Danny Herrera could do as the second lefty out of the bullpen. Billy Bray should be just fine as the primary lefty, but the Reds seem heistant to rely on Herrera. They may well be right, as depth is an important attribute for an MLB team, but I think Herrera and Matt Maloney could both do a nice job out of the bullpen. I'd still like to see Maloney in the rotation, but if he falls short then he could be in the mix for the spot in the bullpen vacated by Jeremy Affeldt.

In 2008, Herrera struck out 9.82 batters per nine innings and posted a 3.50 GB/FB ratio. In 7.1 innings, Herrera racked up 8 strikeouts, 14 ground balls, 4 fly balls, and 4 line drives. Unfortunately, those stats come with a 7.36 ERA, but that is likely the result of his poor luck. He posted a very unlucky BABIP at .415 (should be ~ .300) and LOB% at 58.8% (should be around 70%), so he allowed more hits than was to be expected and stranded fewer runners than you would expect. Admittedly, it's difficult to draw any significant conclusions based on such a small sample size, but I do think there are some real positives there. Best of all, Herrera is a groundball machine, which helped him succeed at high altitude for the University of New Mexico. Of course, he doesn't fit the mold of a major league pitcher, topping out at 5'7" and 83.8 mph. Still, height and velocity aren't everything, so Herrera could be an intriguing fit in Great American Ballpark. But, will he get a chance?

2008 in Hindsight: The Affeldt and Fogg Signings

Well, continuing our theme of looking back at the painful 2008 season, it's time to look at a couple of pitching acquisitions, one of which worked out great and another that didn't. So, starting with the former and moving to the latter.....

Jeremy Affeldt

Prior to the season, I thought the Affeldt signing was a good one for the Reds due to both on the field and off the field reasons. Affeldt actually came through in both departments, as his on field production was good enough to earn him a Type B free agent classification.

However, was his production so good as to entice the Reds to sign him again? Personally, I really hope not. In 2008, Affeldt posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, a 9.2 K/9, and a 2.02 GB/FB ratio. His performance exceded all reasonable expectations, but now is the time to cut bait.

As good as Affeldt was in 2008, the volatility of both the relief pitcher position and Affeldt himself makes him a mediocre bet for long term success. In addition, by re-signing him, the Reds would fail to maximize the value of their assets.

As I mentioned in my post when the Reds signed Affeldt, they need to "churn" players. By re-signing both Affeldt and David Weathers, the Reds would be holding onto their assets for far too long. In fact, they would likely be holding on so long that they would be running the value of their assets into the ground.

If they let Affeldt and Weathers walk for the compensatory draft picks, then they can exchange the value of their aging assets for young prospects to plug in at the bottom of the organization. If they re-sign Affeldt and Weathers, then they are likely to lose the value of the assets when Affeldt and Weathers retire or disappear into obscurity in the future.

The true choice isn't between re-signing Affeldt and Weathers or letting them walk, but rather whether to exchange aging assets for younger ones or to ride the aging assets until their is no value left in the organization.

To me the choice is simple. For smaller market teams, players must be churned to keep the value of the assets in the organization.

Affeldt was a great signing because he could be signed for only one season and had hte potential to net a compensatory pick with a solid season. He had the solid season we needed, so now it's time to cash in on the gamble.

Josh Fogg

As for the Josh Fogg signing, I didn't think it made any sense and thought it could be detrimental to the young pitching prospects. At the time, I thought signing a veteran pitcher instead of going with the younger pitchers only made sense for three reasons, none of which were satisfied by the Josh Fogg signing.

1) The veteran lacks the upside of the prospect, but will provide better production in the short run.
2) The veteran will work more innings and deeper into games than the prospect.
3) The veteran serves as a stop gap to give the younger pitchers more time in the minors to develop.

Fogg failed #1 by posting a lackluster 7.58 ERA in 78.1 innings. He failed #2 by averaging less than 5 innings per start. And, he arguably failed #3 because someone like Matt Maloney was probably ready to step in. Perhaps a case could be made that Fogg filled a need, especially given the injury to Daryl Thompson and the ineffectiveness of Homer Bailey, but Fogg was largely an unmitigated disaster and sadly not exactly an unexpected one.

While the Reds may have been right in wanting additional depth as insurance for always volatile young pitching, they'll have to do better than Josh Fogg in the future.

The Jeremy Affeldt Signing and Player Turnover

One of the most important strategies for a low/mid-market team GM to embrace is the idea of player turnover. The A's first discovered how to effectively churn players to generate the most value from their assets. Subsequently, the Red Sox stole the A's playbook, supplemented it with a massive revenue stream, and ultimately won two World Series titles. All of which speaks to the fact that embracing a degree of player turnover is an essential strategy in the modern game and Reds may be doing just that with the Jeremy Affeldt signing.

ON THE FIELD

The Reds signed Jeremy Affeldt, who may be best known for getting body slammed during a baseball brawl by the ridiculous Kyle Farnsworth, to a one year deal worth $3M. However, Affeldt is actually a very intriguing left-handed pitcher who has yet to live up to his considerable potential.

Affeldt doesn't have the most impressive statistics, but he does have rather impressive stuff, which is why the Royals had such difficulty in giving up on him. Affeldt is a rare power lefty with very good stuff, which SHOULD translate into much better production than Affeldt has provided in his career. Affeldt features a mid-90s fastball and a very impressive power curveball. It's not the loopy, lollipop variety curveball like Barry Zito throws, but rather a hard, sharp breaking pitch.

For his career, Affeldt sports a 4.74 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and a 6.4 K/9. In 2007, he was much better for the Rockies, posting a 3.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, and a 7.0 K/9. In addition, Affeldt has what the Reds need, as he gets a substantial number of groundballs. For his career, Affeldt has a 1.45 GB/FB ratio and in 2007 it was an even more impressive 1.80.

Of course, Affeldt will likely see his performance in Cincinnati suffer from the shoddy Reds defense. The Rockies had a DER of .702 in 2007, while the Reds were a lackluster .679. The Reds well below average team defense is never going to help out newly acquired pitchers.

However, this signing certainly addresses a need for the Reds, as they need a lefthander in the rotation (though Affeldt may ultimately end up in the bullpen) and they could always use more quality groundball pitchers.

OFF THE FIELD

While this move makes sense from an on-the-field perspective, it also makes tremendous sense from an off-the-field perspective.

Jeremy Affeldt did not qualify as either a type A or B free agent, so the Reds do not have to surrender a compensatory pick for signing him. He is currently only ranked as the 70th best relief pitcher in the NL and only the top 57 relievers warranted competition in 2007.

In order to calculate player compensation, the Elias Sports Bureau considers the player's two previous seasons. So, for Affeldt, his lackluster 2006 and solid 2007 seasons were considered in arriving at his current Elias ranking.

Here's what the his last two seasons have looked like:



So, when Affeldt's one year Reds contract runs out at the end of 2008, Elias will consider Affeldt's 2007 and 2008 seasons to determine his compensation rating. So, given that Affeldt was poor in 2006 and fairly solid in 2007, it's the 2006 season that dragged down his current Elias Ranking. Accordingly, the Reds could be in line for compensatory picks if Affeldt manages to repeat his 2007 production during the 2008 season. If the Reds get decent production out of Affeldt and let him walk for a compensatory draft pick or two, then it'll be a great value generating acquisition for the Reds.

Embracing player turnover is important to maximizing the value of an organization's assets and Affeldt may ultimately generate quite a bit of value for the Reds. In addition, the price is right, as it only cost the Reds only a 1 year commitment and $3M in salary. It has yet to be determined what role Affeldt will fill in 2008, but it's hard not to like this deal for the Reds.

After a couple of years of complete inaction under former GM Dan O'Brien, it's refreshing to see a GM embrace a bit of player turnover, which can have substantial positive impact on the future of the organization.