2010 Top Prospect List: #14 Chris Valaika, ss/2b

Chris Valaika
Height 6-0, Weight 215, B/T: R/R, DOB: 8/14/1985
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #5

In 2008, Chris Valaika was awarded the Chief Bender Award as the Reds Minor League Player of the Year. He followed it up in 2009 with arguably the most disappointing season of any prospect in the entire system.

Obviously, one bad season could be nothing more than an outlier driven by bad luck and nagging injuries. It's entirely possible that that is the case for Valaika, but the down year certainly did him no favors. Much like Danny Dorn, Valaika's inability to perform at a high level during the 2009 season likely cost him both a late season promotion and a shot at a full-time gig in 2010.

He'll look to rebound in 2010 and reestablish his prospect credentials. If he can do so, then he may play his way back into the organization's immediate plans for the future.


2009 SEASON

To say that Valaika had a forgettable 2009 season would be an understatement. Seriously.

In fact, 2009 was largely a wasted development year for Valaika. At best, it forced him to face adversity, which some organizations like to see, as it forces a prospect to learn to deal with and overcome challenges. So, hopefully, Valaika emerges from 2009 with more mental toughness, which every player needs at the MLB level.

Valaika spent the entire year with triple-A Louisville, where he struggled not only with his performance, but his temper as well. An ill-advised haymaker to a water cooler resulted in a fractured hand, which put him on the shelf for a chunk of the season. Still, given that Danny Dorn also struggled mightily with the promotion to triple-A, maybe there is something in the water in Louisville (another explanation for the water cooler incident?). Or, on a more serious note, maybe the jump to triple-A is a bit more difficult than previously thought.

When Valaika was on the field, he hit a paltry .235/.271/.344/.615 in 366 ABs with 6 homeruns and a rather pedestrian 76/16 K/BB ratio. He had some stunningly bad months to start the season, posting a slash line of .176/.219/.353/.572 in 68 ABs in April and .120/.185/.120/.305 in 25 ABs in May. As bad as it seems, he was also somewhat unlucky, posting a line drive rate of 21% in April, but a BABIP of .188, and a line drive rate of 25% in May, but a BABIP of only .136. With that kind of bad luck, it's almost hard to blame him for taking out his frustrations on the cooler.

On the season, his line drive remained a stellar 21%, while his BABIP was a somewhat low .282. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate jumped from 17.9% in 2008 to 19.4% in 2009, while his walk rate fell from 6.8% in 2008 to 4.1% in 2009. So, his plate approach seemed to suffer, which could either be a result of his struggles or one of the causes. It's just as easy to imagine him getting less disciplined at the plate as his struggles mounted as it is to imagine his struggles being caused by being overly aggressive and chasing bad pitches. Whatever the explanation, his approach took a noticeable step backward in 2009. Even early-count hitters need to focus on offering at pitches that they can handle, as consistently forcing consequences to At Bats on pitcher's pitches is a quick way to put yourself at a significant disadvantage in the all important pitcher v. hitter confrontation.

On the defensive side, he continues to get extensive work at shortstop (77 games), but also spent some time on the right side of second base (18 games). His range at short still leaves something to be desired, as evidenced by his Total Zone Runs/150 rating of -4. At second, his range graded out a bit better, earning an average mark of 0 Runs/150. It was refreshing to finally see the Reds give him a look at second, as the versatility will only help his case. Even so, 2009 marked the first time Valaika had manned 2b at any professional level. Circumstances are working against Valaika, as his game profiles better at second, but the make-up of the 25 man roster would make it easier for Valaika to break in at shortstop.


SWING, TOOLS, AND PHYSICAL STATURE

Valaika is a strong, sturdy ballplayer with a thick, muscular type frame. He's 6-0 tall, but tips the scales at a stout 215, which is a bit bigger than your typical middle infielder. Physically, he strikes me as being somewhat similar to Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta. In fact, his overall game reminds me of Peralta, who is more of an early-count hitter with good pop, limited on base skills, and fringe defensive skills at shortstop that forced him to switch when he outgrew the position. It's questionable whether Valaika will develop as much power as Peralta or has enough defensive skill to hold down shortstop for even a few years. Still, given the similarities of their respective games and body types, a Peralta type career strikes me as a likely ceiling for Chris Valaika. Of course, a lot would have to break right for Valaika to max out on his projection, but he still certainly has nice upside.

At the plate, Valaika uses a wide-spread stance and a high pre-pitch hand position. He keeps his hands in front of his right shoulder and uses a significant bat waggle to stay loose while waiting for the pitch. While waiting for the pitch, he constantly grips and regrips the bat to ensure loose grip pressure and prevent tension in his swing. As the pitch is delivered he pulls his hands back into hitting position. He uses a high back elbow which he has to drop before firing the swing. His wide spread stance gives him a sturdy foundation for his swing. To transfer his weight, he lifts the foot up slightly and puts it right back down. His minimal stride is effective in transferring his weight, but doesn't result in significant cocking of the hips. Cocking the hips is one of the primary ways a hitter can generate power, but it's not the only way. Valaika is strong enough to generate power with both his upper and lower body to offset the less than ideal hip action.

Here is a look at him in action:




And, if you want another look at him, check out this quality Arizona Fall League clip of Valaika at the plate.

As for his approach at the plate, Valaika is an aggressive, early count hitter. He's not the type of hitter who is going to see a lot of pitches or grind out At Bats to draw walks. He's a grip-it-and-rip-it type, who is going to pick a pitch and not get cheated on it. He has strong hands and wrists, which when coupled with his good hand-eye coordination enables him to make hard, consistent contact. He also can drive the ball with power to all fields. His swing, which is simple and uncomplicated, generally has a slight uppercut path to it, but at times he seems to get a bit top hand heavy in his swing.

Valaika isn't overly fleet of foot. He doesn't get out of the box or down the first base line very quickly, so he's not likely to rack up many infield hits or swipe many bases. In his professional career, he has stolen 13 bases and been caught stealing 13 times. Obviously, he does more harm than good when he attempts larceny, as you have to swipe bases at a greater than ~70% clip to benefit your team. If you fall short of that mark, then you are actually costing your team runs.


DEFENSE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

The question on Valaika, was, is, and continues to be whether he can handle shortstop, as the Reds are certainly in need of one. The consensus of the scouting community is that his range will be stretched at short and the defensive metrics seem to support that notion.

Under the TotalZone metric, Valaika has only posted a positive Runs/150 number at rookie level Billings in his first taste of pro-ball. All his other range stats at shortstop are significantly in the negative, including a -9 in 2007 for Dayton, a -5 in 2008 for Chattanooga, and a -4 in 2009 for Louisville.

On the plus side, Valaika has a strong, accurate arm, which plays well all across the infield, but he lacks quickness and his range is barely adequate. He profiles better at secondbase, but the Reds already have Brandon Phillips entrenched at the position and have shown little inclination to shift "The Franchise" across the bag to shortstop. So, for now, Valaika's best chance at a starting job with the Reds is at shortstop and he may ultimately be next in line after Orlando Cabrera's one year contract expires.

Personally, I find it to be increasingly difficult to get behind the idea of a "fringe" defensive player at shortstop. The new statistical metrics are revealing defense at shortstop to be just too important to sacrifice for anything less than an elite, impact bat. Unfortunately, Valaika simply doesn't have that kind of bat, so whatever above average offensive production he provides will be dragged down by the runs he gives away on defense.


CONCLUSION

Ultimately, I suspect that Valaika's terrible 2009 season has done little to diminish the organization's view of him. He will always be an offense-first type player, but he could have just enough defensive skill to carve out a few years of shortstop play at the MLB level. He profiles better at second, where he would likely acquit himself well defensively and his defense wouldn't drag down the value of his bat.

At the plate, Valaika certainly has the potential to be a productive MLB hitter. I like his underlying hitting skills much better than his approach at the plate, but he has certainly made it work for him thus far.

The Reds have made serious strides in improving the farm system over the past few years, but the organization still lacks much quality prospect depth in the middle infield. Chris Valaika is one of the organization's few bright lights in the middle of the infield, which for now lands him at #14 on the list.

Bad Break for Chris Valaika

Unfortunately, Chris Valaika suffered a broken hand for triple-A Louisville. Valaika had been scuffling early in the season and this will only hinder his efforts to right the ship during the 2009 season.

"Chris Valaika was placed on Triple-A Louisville's disabled list with a broken right hand.

Valaika will be in a cast for four weeks. Between the injury and his early .161/.210/.290 line, Valaika won't be a candidate to solve the Reds' shortstop woes any time soon. He's not likely to see big league action before September call-ups."

At this point, Alex Gonzalez and Paul Janish are doing a nice job holding down the shortstop position at the MLB level, so there isn't a pressing need for Valaika. However, it would be nice to see Valaika settle into a position full time and earn a promotion to the majors. Clearly, that will have to wait a while longer.

2009 Top Prospect List: #5 Chris Valaika, ss/2b

Chris Valaika
Height 6-0, Weight 215, B/T: R/R, DOB: 8/14/1985
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #10

Chris Valaika was a steal for the Reds, as they drafted him in the third round of the 2006 draft. If it wasn't for injury, he likely would have gone higher. Valaika is part of the Reds renewed emphasis on the premier defensive positions and on players with strong work ethics and good baseball instincts.

Valaika is an early count hitter who doesn't wait long to offer at a pitch. Obviously, that's an approach that will reduce his walk rate. Unfortunately, he doesn't provide overwhelming power or speed, so his value is going to be driven by a high contact rate and the resulting high batting average. In 2008, he put his offensive skills to good use.

2008 SEASON

Valaika opened up the 2008 season back at high-A Sarasota. In 2007, Valaika struggled at Sarasota, which knocked some of the luster off his rising star in the eyes of some. However, Valaika certainly got it right in his second go-around, when he bounced back with a vengeance. In 2007, Valaika scuffled to a slash line of .253/.310/.332/.642 in 217 ABs with Sarasota. In his 2008 return engagement, Valaika posted a .363/.393/.585/.978 with 7 homeruns in 135 ABs. He ripped line drives all over the yard at a stellar 26% clip. His BABIP was an astronomical .420, but when you hit line drives at that clip, it's hardly unexpected. He continued his trend of early-count hitting, as evidenced by his 29/7 K/BB ratio, but he certainly made it work for him.

You can't post a slash line like that without opening a few eyes and in Valaika's case, it earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga. At double-A, Valaika posted a line of .301/.352/.443/.795 with 11 homeruns in 379 ABs. Again, he evidenced an aggressive, early-count approach which resulted in a 74/28 K/BB ratio. He also continued to center the ball on the barrel and drive the ball with authority, including line drives 22% of the time. As to be expected, his BABIP fell along with his line-drive rate, landing at .350 on the season.

As if that wasn't enough, Valaika finished out the 2008 season in the Arizona Fall League. His production continued to be as steady as a metronome. He posted a familiar slash line of .311/.346/.437/.783. Valaika's calling card is likely to be a high batting average, poor on base skills, and solid pop.


SWING AND APPROACH AT THE PLATE

Here's a video compilation of Valaika in action at the plate.





As you can see, Valaika is yet another hitter who opts for the widespread stance and minimal forward stride. He has actually made some significant changes to his swing mechanics. In college and early in his professional career, Valaika utilized a higher leg kick. Clearly, that's not the case now. He has abandoned the high leg kick in favor of the wider stance, which seems to be the emerging trend in professional baseball. More and more hitters seem to be utilizing the wider stance and fewer seem to be using the narrow stance, big leg kick, and long stride. Valaika's swing changes were likely made to shorten up his swing, make him quicker to the ball, and make him less susceptible to being out on the front foot on good offspeed pitches.

Valaika uses a high back elbow and a compact swing. He swings hard and often. His swing is just as aggressive as his hitting approach. His aggressive swing sometimes causes him to spin out or roll over on his front foot. He uses a slight uppercut in his swing, which enables him to get good loft on the ball. However, at times his back leg will breakdown and his back shoulder will drop, causing him to get under the ball too much.

Valaika makes his "grip it and rip it" approach work with his ability to make hard contact. He has good hand eye coordination and excels at putting the barrel of the bat on the ball, which allows him to drive the ball with authority to all parts of the field. His swing isn't complicated, but rather compact and easily repeatable, which should help him avoid prolonged slumps.


The chart to the right is the distribution of Valaika's balls in play for Chattanooga in 2008. Clearly, he is comfortable using the whole field. The red dots are outs, the blue dots are homeruns, and the green dots are hits.


In the video clip, you can also see that Valaika has a thick, muscular build and clearly isn't fleet of foot. He doesn't get out of the box or down the firstbase line very quickly. His agility and lack of quickness don't impact solely his offensive game, but they also impact the defensive side.


DEFENSE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

Plain and simple, the biggest question on Valaika is whether he can handle shortstop.

Defensive statistics are still in the infancy stage at the minor league level. Even so, they are beginning to emerge. Minorleaguesplits.com has started listing a defensive metric for prospects. One prospect for whom they have defensive statistics is Chris Valaika.

For Chattanooga in 2008, Valaika had 310 chances at shortstop. Of those 310 chances, he converted 205 of them into outs. All of which was good for -3 Runs and -5 Runs/150. "Runs" is relative to league average, so +15 is outstanding and + 10 is a very good fielder, while -10 is rather poor. Runs/150 estimates runs saved per 150 games.

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the metric, but it does dovetail with both his reputation and the opinion of scouts. At this point, Valaika at short seems like a stretch. Scouting reports on his defense have actually been better as of late, but it's difficult to get behind the idea of a "fringe" defensive player at shortstop.

On the plus side, Valaika has a strong, accurate arm, but he lacks quickness and his range is barely adequate. He profiles well at secondbase, but the Reds already have Brandon Phillips at the position and have shown little inclination to shift him across the bag to shortstop. So, for now, Valaika's best chance at a starting job with the Reds is at shortstop.


CONCLUSION

Last offseason, it seemed that I was higher on Valaika than most, but after his bounce back performance in 2008, it seems that the hype has really caught up to Valaika. In fact, the hype may now be outpacing his actual level performance. Valaika is an intriguing prospect, but I do have my concerns. He certainly has his strengths, including the ability to make hard, consistent contact, a strong arm, and solid power. But, he also has some weaknesses, which include an inability to control the strikezone, below average speed, and questionable range in the field.

Valaika is a solid prospect, but I'm beginning to think people are ramping the expectations up too high. At this point, the ultimate offensive ceiling on Valaika in Great American Ballpark would seem to be 18-20 homeruns with a .300 batting average. If he can reach his ceiling, then he would have a great deal of value as a middle infielder. But, his lack of speed, on-base skills, and limited range at shortstop will likely drag down his overall value. While it's rather questionable whether he will reach his ultimate offensive ceiling, it's fairly certain that his drawbacks will always be there. If he continues on his current track, then Valaika projects to be a solid MLB middle infielder. There is certainly a good deal of value in a solid, homegrown, cost-controlled middle infielder, so for now Chris Valaika checks in at #5 on the list.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 1

Well, we are almost halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to check in on the sprouts down on the farm to see who on our Top 25 Prospect List is thriving and who is withering on the vine. Here is how I had them ranked this offseason and how they are doing this season:

1. Jay Bruce - Well, I'm not sure much needs to be said on this one, as Jay lit up triple-A pitching to the tune of .364/.393/.630/1.023, which brought him a well earned promotion to the majors. Bruce wasn't phased much by the big leagues, as he got off to a white hot start and sits now at a more than respectable .300/.386/.470/.856. Pitchers have slowed him down lately, but Bruce will simply need to adjust to their plan of attack. He has too much offensive skill to be held down for long. Get ready for a fun next decade or two, Reds fans.

2. Homer Bailey - Well, while Jay Bruce's path to the majors has been as straight as a string, Homer Bailey's has had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco. Homer's triple-A performance really didn't earn him a call-up to the majors, but he got one anyway. At triple-A Louisville, Homer currently sports a 4.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 62/31 K/BB ratio. During his most recent stint in the majors, Homer made 3 starts posting an 8.76 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP, and a putrid 3/10 K/BB ratio. He's still young, so he has time to right the ship, but at the MLB level his fastball velocity is down and he seems to lack both command of his pitches and also an out-pitch. Also, his attitude has repeatable been called into question, which is never a good sign for a young ballplayer. The Reds tinkered with Homer's mechanics (including having him bring his hands only to the chest, rather than over the head), but have yet to see positive results. The best thing the organization can do is leave him in triple-A for the rest of the year and force him to actually EARN his next promotion.

3. Johnny Cueto - Johnny's rookie season has been overshadowed by the dominance of fellow rotation member Edinson Volquez. However, unlike the prospect directly above him on the list, Cueto has demonstrated the skills necessary to be a very effective MLB starting pitcher. Three of the main elements of a successful pitcher are walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. Well, interestingly enough, Cueto is very strong in walk rate and strikeout rate, while Edinson is very strong in strikeout rate and groundball rate. However, Great American Ballpark is more ideally suited to a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher like Edinson, than it is to a low walk/strong strikeout pitcher like Cueto. Over time, Cueto should learn to limit his susceptibility to the long ball, but for now Edinson's game is better tailored to Great American Ballpark. Even so, Cueto should have a long, successful career in Cincinnati.

4. Joey Votto - The Canadian kid has performed about as well as expected, however his production is a bit different than I expected. So far in his big league career, Votto has displayed good power, but only average on base skills. Given his career minor league line of .289/.385/.476/.861, I expected the opposite. Regardless, his career is in its infancy and he should continue to provide professional At Bats in Cincinnati for years to come.

5. Drew Stubbs - Stubbs is still plying his trade at high-A Sarasota, where he started off as hot as a supernova. While he has cooled off as of late, his line is still solid at .267/.381/.405/.786 with 22 steals in 29 attempts. Stubbs came out of the University of Texas with a reputation for tremendous defense, good speed, and light-tower power. He is one of the few Longhorns to ever hit the ball over the scoreboard at Texas. However, his current skill set would seem to have him on track to be a leadoff hitter, as his on-base skills and speed are both above average. Stubbs is what we need to see from more of the Reds prospects: great defensively, strong on-base skills, and a high baseball IQ. If he continues to stay on track, he could be the Reds starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for good starting opening day of 2010.

6. Todd Frazier - Previously, I wrote: "Todd Frazier is a baseball player. That sentence may not seem like it says much, but in reality it says it all." That statement continues to be true, as Frazier's polished skill-set is enabling him to climb the ranks of the Reds system. He started out back at low-A Dayton, where he pounded pitchers to a tune of .321/.402/.598/1.000 before getting promoted to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Frazier is currently at .288/.347/.485/.832, which doesn't strike the eye as very impressive, but Sarasota is notoriously tough on hitters. Overall, Frazier is one of the brightest lights in the Reds system and his innate understanding of the game allows all of his solid tools to play up a notch. If he continues to perform as he has, Frazier will continue to climb the levels of the farm system and up even higher on this prospect list.

7. Juan Francisco - Juan is another bright light in the farm system and another example of the importance of international scouting in the modern game. Juan is also working at high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a respectable line of .283/.301/.476/.777 in a pitcher friendly park. Francisco has substantial power and is a very good athlete, but he is less polished than Todd Frazier and still has an alarming K/BB ratio of 69/8. It's difficult to envision a hitter have much MLB success without improving on his approach at the plate, so it's a very large red flag. Still, he's a young player and has significant upside, so he's definitely one to keep an eye on.

8. Devin Mesoraco - Mesoraco was held back in extended spring training to start the year, which led to talk that he was destined to head back to the rookie level Pioner League. But, the Reds eventually sent him to low-A Dayton, where Mesoraco begin to make good on his promise and justify his high draft slot. He is currently hitting .276/.331/.397/.727 after following up a slow start with a nice hot streak. As a catcher, Mesoraco has a long way to go in his development, as he has much to learn on both sides of the dish. Still, after an injury plagued season last year and a bit of a poor start in 2008, it's comforting to see Mesoraco play so capably. Mesoraco has a long way to go, but he's demonstrating a great deal of promise.

9. Travis Wood - Wood slid down many prospects list due to an injury plagued 2007, but he has had a strong bounce back year thus far. He posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA and 41/21 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings at high-A Sarasota. That earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga, where he has strong 24/12 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings pitched. He also has a poor ERA of 6.65, due in large part to back to back games in which he allowed 6 and then 7 earned runs. Still, Wood seems healthy, which should go a long way towards reestablishing him as a quality pitching prospect in the eyes of the national baseball media.

10. Chris Valaika - Valaika is another who slipped down most prospect lists, but he is having a very strong 2008 season. Chris posting a stellar line of .363/.393/.585/.978 at Sarasota and now has a line of .281/.345/.425/.770 at double-A Chattanooga. After some questions emerged about his bat in 2007, Valaika has done his best to answer them in 2008. The jump from A-ball to double-A ball is considered the toughest in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see if Valaika can build on his solid start. In addition, he has improved his defensive play at shortstop to the point that some are wondering whether he might be a legitimate option at shortstop at the big league level, which would only increase his value. Overall, it's been a nice year for Valaika, but he needs to continue to prove that he profiles as more than just a utility infielder at the big league level.

11. Neftali Soto - No one has gotten off to a better start in 2008 than Soto. The Reds assigned him to the rookie league Billings Mustangs, who just got their season underway. In the team's first 5 games, Soto has cranked 4 homeruns and posted a line of .435/.480/1.087/1.567. Soto is a right handed hitter with a beautiful swing. It has a similar fluid grace to Joe DiMaggio's swing. If Soto can be half the MLB player that the Yankee Clipper was, then the Reds will be quite pleased. Personally, I still don't think Soto will be able to stick at shortstop, as he already lacks good first step quickness and will likely only lose range when he inevitably adds weight to his 6'2 frame. Still, Soto is an intriguing prospect and could shoot way up this list if he continues his stellar play.

12. Danny Dorn - Dorn is one of my favorite prospects, but he's had a bit of a strange year. He suffered a knee injury early in the season, which has made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. Still, Dorn has posted a solid line of .272/.368/.474/.842, which is well down from his amazing performance at double-A last year (1.089 OPS). Even so, the on-base skills are strong and given his lack of top flight power, that is what will drive his career. Another strange aspect to Dorn's season is that the Lookouts are using him at several different positions. So far this season, he's played leftfield, rightfield, quite a bit of firstbase, and spent a lot of time at designated hitter. I'm not sure if the Reds are moving him around because they don't view him as a potential starter, so they are attempting to increase his versatility or if they are taking it easy on his injured knee. Regardless, he'd be better off starting every game in leftfield and I hope to see that happen in the near future.

13. Matt Maloney - It's been a tale of two seasons for Maloney, as he started out 2008 with very poor results. However, he's been much better as of late, which has earned him an ERA of 4.93, a whip of 1.37, and a stellar K/BB ratio of 78/28 in 84.0 innings pitched. His peripherals have been solid all year, so a large part of his struggles seem to be poor luck. His BABIP for the season is .331 and his Fielding Independent Pitching has been 3.98, which is much more impressive than his 4.93 ERA. Overall, Maloney has had a deceptively solid season and as the sample size increases his ERA and WHIP should regress to the mean. He should make his debut in Cincinnati later this summer.

14. Josh Ravin - Turning to one of my other favorite prospects, the Reds kept Ravin in extended spring training, but eventually sent him to low-A Dayton. At Dayton, Ravin has shown flashes of brilliance, but also struggled with his command. Ravin fell off of most prospect lists because of his terrible control in 2007. However, I've always loved his mechanics, which should help his command come around, and his pure stuff, so I still rate him highly. At Dayton, Ravin has posted the following: 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 24/16 in 27.0 innings. Clearly, the stuff is there, as he's striking out almost a batter an inning, but it's hard not to be disappointed in the control. However, he's young and I still wouldn't change his ranking on this list, as I'm a true believer. For me, he's definitely someone to watch. Now, if he could only find a consistent arm slot, the sky would be the limit.

15. Adam Rosales - Rosales had a very impressive spring training and he turned all of the right heads in the Reds organization. In addition, he has no longer been relegated to 1b, which is where he spent most of last season due to an elbow injury. So, with the elbow injury no longer of concern, Rosales has been able to climb back up the defensive spectrum, which has really helped him regain some of the value he lost at first base. Still, despite all these positives, Rosales has really struggled at the plate with triple-A Louisville, where he is hitting a paltry .215/.279/.318/.597. Unfortunately, he seems to have given back some of the gains he made in Spring Training. At this point, he seems to be a real long shot to be anything more than a utility infielder at the MLB level.


Well, that's how the first 15 stack up, so the next installment will feature #16-25 and the Other Notables. I'm sure you won't want to miss that!!!

Top Prospect List: #10 Chris Valaika, ss

Chris Valaika was one of the best stories out of the 2006 Reds draft class, as he had a spectacular professional debut. He's 6'1 tall, 180 lbs, throws right, and bats right.

COLLEGE BALL AND 2006 DRAFT

The Reds drafted Valaika with the 84th overall pick in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft.

Valaika may have been a steal at that point, his value was likely driven down due to a knee injury that he suffered as a sophomore in college. Valaika was a 1st team Freshman All American at UC Santa Barbara after posting a line of .347/.411/.536/.947. The knee injury limited him to 18 games as a sophomore and a line of .208/.253/.278/.531, which dropped his draft stock a bit. However, Valaika bounced back as a junior, hitting an impressive .335/.372/.529/.901.

In addition, Valaika has a lot of experience playing for Team USA, as he's represented the United States on national youth, junior, and college teams. All in all, Valaika is a very polished prospect.

That was enough to convince the Reds.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Valaika exploded onto the scene when he set a Pioneer League record with a 32-game hitting streak and winning the MVP.

In 2006 at Billings, Valaika hit .324/.387/.520/.907 with a 24/61 BB/K ratio. He managed to hit 8 homers and 22 homers, which points to a bit more power potential in the future.

While his performance was impressive, it is tempered by the fact that he was a college player in the rookie league, so he should perform well. In addition, his 2007 season was a bit of a disappointment.

Valaika started out 2007 at low-A Dayton, where he hit a solid .307/.353/.493/.846 with 10 homers in 300 ABs.

He was then bumped up to high-A Sarasota, where he struggled against more advanced competition. He posted a line of .253/.310/.332/.642 in 217 ABs.

Despite his decline in production after his promotion, Valaika actually improved his BB% improved from Dayton (5.1%) to Sarasota (5.4%) and reduced his strikeout rate from Dayton (21.8%) to Sarasota (17.4%). While that was a positive sign, his BABIP regressed from .376 at Dayton to .306 at Sarasota and his line drive % also decreased from 18% at Dayton to only 12% at Sarasota. So, his hit luck regressed to the mean and his line drive rate dropped as well.

Valaika may have tired down the stretch or just struggled against more advanced competition, but whatever the reason, he'll have to get back on track and square the bat on the ball to get his line drive percentage back up. The higher the percentage of line drives, the higher the percentage of balls in play that will fall in for hits.

While it's understandable that Valaika struggled as he moved up the ladder, as an experienced college player you'd like to see him have decent success until he reaches Double-A, where the competition is much more polished and challenging for college players.

In addition, Valaika's career K/BB ratio is cause for concern, as in three professional seasons he has a 175/54 ratio. Improving his on base skills and his strikeout rate would improve his chances for success at the higher levels.

Valaika may already be on the road back, as after a slow start in the Hawaii Winter Baseball League for the North Shore Honu, Valaika is hitting .306 in his last 10 games. That hot streak brings him up to .269/.319/.398/.717 overall. Hopefully, this a sign of things to come in 2008.

OFFENSE

Valaika has a short, compact swing and quick hands that makes him fairly quick to the ball, but he has a few moving pieces in his swing that may leave him susceptible to a good fastball or quality off-speed pitches.

Valaika has a fairly quiet setup, but he begins with his hands in front of his right shoulder, moving them back to the hitting position during the pitcher's windup. In addition, Valaika utilizes a fairly high leg kick as a timing mechanism in his swing.

The hand position in his setup may cause him to be late on good fastballs. As long as he gets his hands back into the hitting position in time, it won't be an issue, but a good fastball reaches the plate faster and leaves less time for Valaika to get his hands into position. It likely won't be a problem, but it bears watching. As for the higher leg kick, that may result in Valaika being out in front of good off-speed pitches.

A high leg kick is a timing mechanism for the swing, but if the hitter is fooled by an off-pitch, then his timing will be off because his leg kick started too soon. However, Valaika does have good pitch recognition, which will help him avoid problems with the higher leg kick.

Overall, Valaika has solid offensive skills that should translate fairly well at the upper levels.

You can access the link to Valaika's MLB draft scouting video here.

DEFENSE

Valaika's speed is below average, which hinders his range and may ultimately force him to the other side of the second base. However, he's got good footwork which enables him to get into good fielding position and he has good hands to vacuum up groundballs. Valaika also has a strong, accurate arm that should play well just about anywhere.

Ultimately, his range, which couldn't have been helped by his knee injury, may relegate him to second base, but he could be a solid, offensive second baseman.

FUTURE

Despite his late season fade, Valaika is still an intriguing prospect. As of now, it's impossible to tell if his late season struggles were nothing more than a bump in the road or rather indicative of problems to come. Next year will provide another data point and reveal a lot about Valaika's future. In 2008, he could rebound, putting him back on track as a potential starter at the MLB level or just continue his slide into a potential future as utility man.

For now, his polished skill set and good hitting skills land him at #10 on the list.