2011 Top Prospect List: #9 Juan Francisco, 3b

Juan Francisco
Height 6-2, Weight 240, B/T: L/R, DOB: 6/24/1987
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #6

Juan Francisco has power that stacks up favorable with almost any prospect in the game. A select number could certainly out-power him, including recent #1 overall pick Bryce Harper, but Francisco can really lay the lumber when he gets a hold of one. Of course, his struggle to make consistent contact means that it doesn't happen as often as we would like.

Additionally, Francisco's offensive game lacks secondary skills (i.e. speed, on-base skills, etc), so his game will be driven largely by his power production. Fortunately, his home park accentuates his strongest attribute, so if he can stick in the majors for an appreciable amount of time, then he might be able to make some noise. Of course, while the power would be nice, his lack of both defensive ability and on-base skill will always serve as significant drags on his overall value as a player.

2010 Season

Francisco spent most of the 2010 season at triple-A Louisville doing what he does, namely hitting homers and avoiding walks like the plague. In 77 games, Juan hit .286/.325/.565/.890 with 18 homers and a 81/16 K/BB ratio in 308 ABs. He had a line-drive rate of 19% and a BABIP of .335, but what stands out are his 4.9% walk rate and 24.6% strikeout rate.

His season was hampered by an appendectomy, which cost him roughly two-months of the season. Despite this bump in the road, Francisco managed to log 59 PAs at the MLB level. In those plate appearances, he hit .273/.322/.382 with 1 homerun and a 20/4 K/BB ratio. His BABIP was an unsustainable .412, which was mildly alarming when paired with his lackluster 14% line-drive rate. In short, his batting average, which was the only acceptable part of his slash line, was driven largely by luck.

On the plus side, Francisco did show some capacity to work counts. As an aggressive hitter, you don't expect to see him in many 4+ pitch At Bats. Nevertheless, Francisco worked the count to 3-0 in 7% of his plate appearances, which is quite strong when compared to the league average mark of 5%. Obviously, it's a small sample size and the deeper counts still didn't translate into walks, so the ability to work counts may not have much tangible value and may not even be sustainable. Still, it's mildly interesting and certainly worth of note. However, his contact rate in two MLB seasons remains a disturbing 65%, which falls substantially below the MLB average of 79% over those two seasons. In fact, Francisco's contact rate falls well below Adam Dunn's career 71% contact rate, which is obviously cause for concern. The lower the contact rate, the higher the strikeout totals and the lower the batting average. Adam Dunn's contact rate has always hovered around the lowest acceptable rate for a productive hitter, so Francisco's inability to surpass Dunn's mark is disconcerting. Additionally, Dunn manages to offset his struggles to make contact by drawing a massive amount of walks, which Francisco simply does not do.

Swing Mechanics and Offensive Profile

Francisco has an unorthodox pre-pitch setup. He uses a wide-spread, open stance and a significant bat waggle. He stands tall and holds his hands up next to his left ear. While waiting on the pitcher, Francisco moves his bat in a circle and also from vertical to down past parallel to the ground. He has a very loose, active pre-pitch stance.

Francisco relies on a two-step stride to generate load and transfer his weight to meet the oncoming pitch. His first stride moves his foot in towards homeplate to close up his stance and cock his hips. A wide-open stance prevents a hitter from utilizing the hips to generate power, as you can't fire the hips if you are already in an open position. So, open-stance hitters who want to generate power need to develop a mechanism to cock the hips and generate load for the swing. The interesting aspect of Francisco's stride is that once his first step closes up his hips, he taps his toe and then immediately opens up again. The second step in his stride is a move to open right back up to the pitch again.

In short, he closes up his stance by striding towards the plate, then taps his toe and immediately opens his stance up again. In fact, if you look carefully, when his stride foot lands Francisco completely opens up his foot by pointing his toe directly at the pitcher. He isn't rolling over on the foot when he fires the swing like some hitters, but rather opens up before he fires the swing.

Given his light-tower power, it's undeniable that his stride effectively cocks his hips and allows him to generate substantial power. But, his open stride and early firing of the hips makes me question his ability to cover the outer-half and handle offspeed pitches that upset his timing.

As for his swing, he drops his hands into proper hitting position and gets a very strong bat-throw through the zone. He generates good bat speed and does a nice job of squaring the bat on the ball. He still has length in his swing, which explains his difficulties in making consistent contact. He uses a slight uppercut in his swing, which generates good loft on the ball.

After whipping the bat through the zone, Francisco uses an abbreviated follow-through during which he never really releases the bat, rather cuts it short a la Fred McGriff.

A couple of years ago I thought the most comparable MLB player to Juan Francisco was Mike Jacobs. Basically, a defensively challenged player relegated to the low end of the defensive spectrum who possesses good pop but very little on-base ability. And, even now after Jacobs has really started to slip, it still feels about right. Francisco probably hits for a higher average than Jacobs, but flashes even less on-base ability.

If Francisco manages to stick at the hot corner, then his best comparisons are probably Kevin Kouzmanoff or Pablo Sandoval. Both have an early-count, low-walk approach, but Kouzmanoff is the superior defensive player while Sandoval is the more pure hitter. There really is no perfect comp for Francisco, because he strikes out like a late-count hitter but walks like an early-count hitter. It's an unusual combination and one that really drags down his value. In short, his approach generates the worst outcome of each of the two different plate approaches.


Defensive Skills

On the defensive side, the Reds are convinced that Francisco can hold down the hot corner. In fact, they have arguably alter the development path of Todd Frazier to accommodate Francisco. Frazier profiles best at third base, but the Reds have used him in a super utility role in part because Francisco is on a similar development time-line and has always been locked in a third base.

So, the Reds have actually gambled a decent amount on Francisco's ability to handle third base. His biggest problem continues to be his range, as he simply doesn't move all that well laterally. Unfortunately, he also struggles to convert those balls he reaches into outs, as his fielding percentage is a cause for concern. When he does get his hands on the ball, his plus arm allows him to make more plays than might be expected.

The Reds got a huge boost from Scott Rolen in 2010, but he is aging and will lug around significant injury risk for the rest of his career. As a result, Francisco possesses one of the most important things a prospect can have: opportunity. The Reds will need to have someone spell Rolen at times this year and will need to have someone lined up to replace him in the future. Francisco will likely get first crack.

Final Thoughts

Thus far, Francisco's career serves best as a cautionary tale about the difficulties of both reaching the Majors and thriving when you get there. It is not easy. Even though Francisco has been labeled one of the Reds top prospects for a couple of seasons, that's not a guarantee that Major League success will necessarily follow. Even among the very best prospects in baseball, there is still a significant risk of flaming out. It's easy to dream on prospects, but there is something to be said for established MLB talent.

Francisco's power will always be his calling card and his main value driver. If Francisco can earn the job of Scott Rolen's caddy this year, then he could surprise. In fact, if he can get an extended bit of playing time, then I wouldn't be surprised to see him have the type of small-sample size power surge in Great American Ballpark that really excites the fan base. Actually, for whatever reason, I'm somewhat expecting it. In addition to his power and friendly home park, I suspect Francisco would get some early count fastballs (which, we know he'll jump on) before pitchers develop a proper "book" on his weaknesses. At that point, he'll need to make adjustments and demonstrate the ability to cover up the weaknesses in both his approach and swing, which will be a difficult challenge.

For now, Francisco's plus-power when coupled with the Reds continued faith in him are enough to land him at #9 on the list. I remain wholly unconvinced about his ability to handle the hot corner, but Francisco will always be an offensive-first prospect, so he needs to hit (and hit a lot) to justify a spot on the 25-man roster.

2010 Top Prospect List: #6 Juan Francisco, 3b

Juan Francisco
Height 6-2, Weight 180, B/T: L/R, DOB: 06/24/1987
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #9

In last year's write-up, I thought two things would happen with Francisco to drag down his value. First, I thought his skills would require a slide down the defensive spectrum to a less taxing and less valuable position. Second, I thought more advanced pitching would begin to feast on his undisciplined approach and pick him apart. The former is beginning to happen, while the latter has not. Even so, I still believe that Francisco's lack of discipline will drag down his value to the point where he is a borderline asset at an "offense-first" defensive position, while his lack of defensive skills will prevent him from holding down any of the positions higher up on the defensive spectrum. It's a combination of flaws that will continue to hinder his overall value as a prospect.


2009 SEASON

Somewhat surprisingly, Francisco's 2009 season was his best as a professional. He spent the season splitting time between double-A Carolina and triple-A Louisville, but also received a small cup of coffee at the MLB level in September.

For double-A Carolina, Francisco played in 109 games and collected 464 plate appearances in which he posted a solid slash line of .281/.317/.501/.818 with 22 homeruns and a 91/20 K/BB ratio. His line drive rate was an impressive at 22%, which more than supported his BABIP of .312, which was reasonable and sustainable. Still, it's difficult to envision any player being able to maintain a consistent level of success when posting a 4.3% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate. For the Reds, his performance was more than sufficient to earn him a promotion to triple-A.

For triple-A Louisville, Francisco played in 22 games and collected 99 plate appearances in which he posted an impressive slash line of .359/.384/.598/.982 with 5 homeruns and a 24/4 K/BB ratio. In this smaller sample size, Francisco hit line drives at a 17% rate and posted an absurdly lucky .444 BABIP, which is obviously not sustainable and will regress mightily as the sample size increases.

The Reds were sufficiently impressed by his performance over the two levels that they rewarded him with a September call-up. In the majors, Francisco continued to roll, posting an absurd slash line of .429/.520/.619/1.139 with 1 homerun, 1 double, and a 7/3 K/BB ratio in 25 plate appearances. The sample size is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions, but for what it's worth, Francisco had a 14% line drive rate and another absurd BABIP of .615.

Overall, it was a solid season for Francisco, but one characterized by unsustainable outbursts of productivity and continuing struggles with his plate approach. Even so, it was a season that caught the eye of Dusty Baker, who has never had much use for disciplined hitters or on-base skills. That will make for an interesting 2010 season as Francisco was just selected to open the season in the majors under the watchful eye and toothpick of Dusty Baker.


SWING MECHANICS AND TOOLS

Despite his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Francisco still manages to produce at something resembling a high level. So, obviously, he does have something to recommend him. So, maybe it's time to follow the age old Bill James adage that it's important to focus on what a player does well, rather than what he does poorly.

Francisco has an unorthodox pre-pitch setup. He uses a wide-spread, open stance and a significant bat waggle. He holds his hands up next to his left ear. While waiting on the pitcher, Francisco moves his bat in a circle and also from vertical to down past parallel to the ground. He's got a lot of pre-pitch movement in his stance.

When the hitter starts with such a wide open stance, then the stride must function to close it up. If it doesn't, then there is no way to cock the hips, generate load in the swing, or cover the outer portion of the plate. Francisco starts with a toe tap move towards the plate, which helps him close up his stance and rotate his hips inward. By rotating the front hip inward, Francisco builds rotational energy to power his swing. He also draws his hands down and back into hitting position with a small hitch to get his hands ready to come forward to meet the pitch. He then takes a long stride forward to transfer his weight forward into his final spread out hitting position.

As he commits to the swing, he fires his hips and pulls the bat through the hitting zone. He has good bat speed and gets good extension out through the ball. He has long arms and gets good leverage and loft on the ball, which enables him generate substantial power. He does have some length to his swing and his aggressiveness can result in him lunging at the pitch and getting too far out on the front foot. The length of the swing and his tendency to sell out in his swing leaves him struggling to make contact. Additionally, his bat speed and aggressive swing can cause him to spin off the ball and open up a bit too soon. Still, his extension and bat speed gives him massive power when he manages to make solid contact. Even so, his contact rate and tendency to chase pitches well outside the strikezone may be his undoing.

Here are a couple of looks at Francisco in action:











As for tools, Francisco has two plus tools. He brings both plus power and plus arm strength to the table. His struggles making contact will likely consistently leave him with lower batting averages. His body type and agility will always hinder his speed and defense and the problem will likely only get worse as his continues to mature physically.


DEFENSE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

The Reds continue to flirt with the idea of Francisco at the hot corner, despite the fact that most observers view that idea as a non-starter. In 2009, Francisco posted a -11 Runs/150 mark for Carolina under the TotalZone metric, which would rate him as a very poor fielder. Even so, the Reds seemingly continue to favor Francisco at the hot corner. Regardless, the addition of Scott Rolen to the team largely precludes the use of Francisco at third, so a position change now seems as necessary as it is inevitable.

Francisco was never likely to be a viable option at thirdbase, as his lateral movement and hands are below average. As a result, Francisco will likely be relegated to leftfield or firstbase where his bat will be less impressive and valuable. Francisco's game changing power may still enable him to carve out a career at an offense-first position, but the drag on his total value created by his poor defensive skills will likely preclude him from ever being an above average player.


CONCLUSION

Overall, Francisco is still plagued by a combination of attributes that reduce his value. His undisciplined offensive game limits his offensive upside, while his poor agility, speed, and range limit his defensive value. In short, he is probably something of a tweener. His offensive game isn't sufficient to sustain him at an offense-first position, while his defensive skill set isn't sufficient to allow him to travel very far up the defensive spectrum.

Francisco's overly aggressive approach at the plate will still likely leave him susceptible to advanced pitching and his defensive value will continue to be dragged down as he fills out physically and loses even more foot speed and agility.

For now, Francisco's plus power and habit of defying the odds lands him at #6 on the list. Even so, his 2009 performance seems to have been aided by a bit of luck, so some regression should be expected. I have never been all that high on Francisco, but he continues to defy expectations and climb up my prospect rankings. And, Francisco will need to continue defying the odds to ultimately win a starting job in Cincinnati.

Juan Francisco Gets the Call. What does it mean?

143 games into the season, the Reds decided to promote Juan Francisco. The 22 year old was coming off a stellar 2009 season in which he had a slash line of .295/.329/.518/.847 with 27 homers and a 115/24 K/BB ratio spread over two levels of the minors.

The acquisition of Scott Rolen saves us all from having to watch Francisco hold down the hot corner. In the minors, Francisco posted an absurd 39 errors and scouting reports are dubious as to his defense. He has plus arm strength, but was unlikely to ever be more than Edwin Encarnacion Part Deux on defense.

As of late, Francisco has spent a bit of time in leftfield, so that may be his future destination. Still, it's obviously his bat that will need to carry him at the MLB level. To me, this promotion raises two questions, but first here is a look at Francisco doing what he does best:








Why Francisco instead of Todd Frazier?

I would imagine that the obvious question that leaps to the minds of most Reds fans is why Juan Francisco over Todd Frazier?

There really doesn't seem to be a good answer to that question. Frazier is a year older and as a college player he's quite simply the much more polished prospect. Juan Francisco is a year younger and his overall skill set is much more raw.

Between double-A and triple-A, Francisco has a line of .295/.329/.518/.847, while Frazier has a line of .292/.351/.481/.832. Pretty similar levels of production, so why has Frazier been bounced from defensive position to defensive position and been basically treated like a future utility player, while Francisco plays horrendous defense and still gets the coveted September call-up?

The only thought that leaps to mind is that the Reds value players with one elite skill higher than the "Jack of All Trades, Master of None" type players. Juan Francisco displays true light-tower power, but little else. Todd Frazier lacks flash, but is a very solid, heady ballplayer.

Another example would be the Reds belief that speed demon Willy Taveras is actually a valuable Major League Baseball player. He lacks any other discernible skill, but the Reds love the one elite skill that he possesses.

For better or worse (I'd argue the latter), the Reds seem dazzled by an elite tool to the exclusion of all else. The Reds prefer one elite tool to an overflowing toolbox. Of course, in this case, that leads to Juan Francisco, not Todd Frazier.

What is the future of Francisco in the Reds Organization?

The Scott Rolen acquisition forecloses an option that should have already been ruled out. The idea that Francisco could play a competent third base at the MLB level was unrealistic in the best of times. Now that Rolen is in the mix, Francisco will officially have to be moved to a different position.

As I mentioned in my most recent prospect write up of Francisco, his inevitable slide down the defensive spectrum would reduce the value of his bat. Now that time is upon us and I have questions as to whether his bat can carry him at an offense first position like leftfield or first base. Obviously, first base is occupied by Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso would rank higher up the depth chart than Francisco. And, quite frankly, I have questions as to whether he can be even an average leftfielder. What good does it do to have a potentially above average offensive talent if he gives away all of his above average production with his below average defense?

So, what does the future hold? Are the Reds calling him up because they view him as a viable option in leftfield for 2010? Given that Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are going to hold down two of the three outfield slots and Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Willy Taveras, and Joey Votto/Yonder Alonso in the mix for the final slot, that may not be a workable option.

The other option is that the Reds are calling up him simply to showcase him for a potential trade this offseason. This strikes me as the better option. The function of the farm system is to support the Major League club and that can be done by promoting homegrown talent or by trading prospects to acquire pieces that are a better fit for the team's needs.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Given the Reds preference for players with an elite tool and Dusty Baker's previously expressed admiration for Juan Francisco, they are likely giving Francisco a legitimate audition for a starting job in 2010, despite the fact that he might ultimately bring more value to the organization in trade.

2009 Top Prospect List: #9 Juan Francisco, 3b

Juan Francisco
Height 6-2, Weight 210, B/T: L/R, DOB: 6/24/1987
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #7

While Juan Francisco's recent performance has him rising to "blue chip prospect" status in the minds of many, a combination of factors actually has him falling in value in my mind. At this point, there doesn't seem to be all that much upside left with Juan, as he has proven himself to be a two tool player (power and strong arm), which limits his overall projection.


2008 SEASON

The Reds sent Juan Francisco to high-A Sarasota for the entire 2008 season. After posting a solid 2007 line of .268/.301/.463/.764 at low-A Dayton, Francisco followed up with another solid line of .277/.303/.496/.799 in 2008. He cranked 23 homeruns in a challenging environment for hitters. In addition, Francisco demonstrated an improved line drive rate, jumping from 13% in 2007 to 21% in 2008. Unfortunately, the solid batting average and power came at a cost, as he posted a horrendous K/BB ratio of 123/19 and he struck out once every 4.2 ABs.

Francisco also made the decision to scrap switch hitting and focus strictly on hitting from the leftside. Obviously, the decision paid off, as he hit for a good average and very good power. Unfortunately, hitting from only the left side didn't improve his contact or walk rate.

Here's a video clip of Francisco at the plate. He utilizes both a wide spread stance and an open stance at the plate. He also has a big bat waggle in his pre-pitch stance and some length to his swing, which is due in part to his long arms. As he hustles down the line you can see his slightly stocky build and the problems that additional weight gain will likely cause.







WINTER BALL

After a solid season high-A Sarasota, Francisco joined Gigantes del Cibao to play in the Dominican winter league. His performance opened more than a few eyes, as he posted a slash line of .360/.419/.665/1.084 to go along with 12 homeruns and a 34/12 K/BB ratio. However, it's important to put his performance in the proper perspective.

The Dominican Winter league is widely regarded as having had very poor pitching this season, which is why offensive numbers are up across the board. This provides a bit more context for Francisco's performance and makes it less impressive than it appears at first glance.

More than anything, it seems to be Francisco's performance in winter ball that has people talking, but at this point I'm not sure it's quite justified. He clearly got a significant boost from watered down pitching and has yet to post an .800+ OPS season in his professional career.


PLATE DISCIPLINE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

In my mind, the combination of factors that are beginning to decrease Francisco's value are 1) Plate Discipline and 2) Positional Value.

Individually, neither would be an insurmountable problem, but when combined they are a substantial drag on Francisco's value.

The elephant in the room that can't go without comment is Francisco's horrendous control of the strikezone. It's almost indescribable just how bad it is. In 1,268 minor league At Bats, Francisco has walked only 48 times and struck out 327 times. That works out to be one walk every 26.4 ABs and one strikeout every 3.9 ABs. Not the kind of ratios you want to see out of your prospects.

It must be said that it's entirely possible to be a successful big league hitter despite having little ability to control the strikezone. In 2008, Juan Francisco had a BB/K ratio of .154, which would have qualified for worst among all qualified MLB regulars behind Kevin Kouzmanoff, Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Jose Guillen, and Corey Hart. Obviously, those players aren't without value, but what they aren't is first basemen. And, ultimately that may be where Francisco ends up.

Players like Gomez, Jones, and Hart have a much broader set of skills and play much more valuable positions than first base. The positional value of a player like Adam Jones or Carlos Gomez allows them to get away with poor strikezone control. It's a lot easier for a player in a premier defensive position to succeed with a flawed offensive approach than it is for a first baseman, because a first baseman's value is driven almost exclusively by his bat. Players in premier defensive positions typically have enough secondary skills (defense, speed, etc.) to offset their poor control of the strikezone. However, that's rarely the case for first basemen, who have to hit and hit well to keep their jobs.

In 2008, Francisco played primarily at third base, but the Reds are facing a logjam at the hot corner. Edwin Encarnacion continues (for reasons beyond my comprehension) to start at third at the MLB level, while Neftali Soto and Todd Frazier are both in the mix for the third base jobs in the system. Ultimately, something has to give and it may well be Francisco, who is beginning to profile better at firstbase. A reality that becomes more likely as Francisco continues to fill out. I've read reports recently indicating that Francisco has added some bad weight to his lower body, which won't help his already below average range.

If Francisco ends up at firstbase, then not only is the value of his power bat diminished, but his only other plus tool is completely negated. Francisco has a very strong arm, but for obvious reasons that just isn't very valuable at first base. At first base, Francisco's offensive game will have to carry him and he just doesn't have the complete offensive skills to be a valuable first baseman.

Hitting is made up of three things: 1) batting average, 2) on-base percentage, and 3) power. To hit for a high average, you have to make contact at a good clip: Francisco doesn't. To have a high on-base percentage, you have to have a selective approach: Francisco doesn't. To hit for power, you have to have strength and loft in your swing: Francisco does. So, Juan has only one of three hitting skills at a position that requires at least two.

Not surprisingly, there just aren't many MLB first basemen who exhibit poor control of the strikezone and those who do typically have the ability to hit for a high batting average. Unfortunately, Francisco's high strikeout rate likely will preclude him from hitting for a high average, which would leave him with just the ability to hit for power. Perhaps the best MLB comparison for Juan Francisco is Kansas City Royal Mike Jacobs: a low contact, poor plate discipline, good power first baseman who just isn't all that valuable and likely won't hold onto a starting job for very long.

CONCLUSION

Ironically enough, Francisco's value may be at an all-time high, but there's also a good chance that it'll never go any higher. Realistically speaking, he's staring a detrimental position change in the face and just doesn't have the hitting skill-set to sustain his value after such a move. Now might be the ideal time for the Reds to consider dealing him. Overall, Francisco still has value, but there are a number of red flags that drag down his upside. For now, he checks in at #9 on the list.

Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 1

Well, we are almost halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to check in on the sprouts down on the farm to see who on our Top 25 Prospect List is thriving and who is withering on the vine. Here is how I had them ranked this offseason and how they are doing this season:

1. Jay Bruce - Well, I'm not sure much needs to be said on this one, as Jay lit up triple-A pitching to the tune of .364/.393/.630/1.023, which brought him a well earned promotion to the majors. Bruce wasn't phased much by the big leagues, as he got off to a white hot start and sits now at a more than respectable .300/.386/.470/.856. Pitchers have slowed him down lately, but Bruce will simply need to adjust to their plan of attack. He has too much offensive skill to be held down for long. Get ready for a fun next decade or two, Reds fans.

2. Homer Bailey - Well, while Jay Bruce's path to the majors has been as straight as a string, Homer Bailey's has had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco. Homer's triple-A performance really didn't earn him a call-up to the majors, but he got one anyway. At triple-A Louisville, Homer currently sports a 4.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 62/31 K/BB ratio. During his most recent stint in the majors, Homer made 3 starts posting an 8.76 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP, and a putrid 3/10 K/BB ratio. He's still young, so he has time to right the ship, but at the MLB level his fastball velocity is down and he seems to lack both command of his pitches and also an out-pitch. Also, his attitude has repeatable been called into question, which is never a good sign for a young ballplayer. The Reds tinkered with Homer's mechanics (including having him bring his hands only to the chest, rather than over the head), but have yet to see positive results. The best thing the organization can do is leave him in triple-A for the rest of the year and force him to actually EARN his next promotion.

3. Johnny Cueto - Johnny's rookie season has been overshadowed by the dominance of fellow rotation member Edinson Volquez. However, unlike the prospect directly above him on the list, Cueto has demonstrated the skills necessary to be a very effective MLB starting pitcher. Three of the main elements of a successful pitcher are walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. Well, interestingly enough, Cueto is very strong in walk rate and strikeout rate, while Edinson is very strong in strikeout rate and groundball rate. However, Great American Ballpark is more ideally suited to a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher like Edinson, than it is to a low walk/strong strikeout pitcher like Cueto. Over time, Cueto should learn to limit his susceptibility to the long ball, but for now Edinson's game is better tailored to Great American Ballpark. Even so, Cueto should have a long, successful career in Cincinnati.

4. Joey Votto - The Canadian kid has performed about as well as expected, however his production is a bit different than I expected. So far in his big league career, Votto has displayed good power, but only average on base skills. Given his career minor league line of .289/.385/.476/.861, I expected the opposite. Regardless, his career is in its infancy and he should continue to provide professional At Bats in Cincinnati for years to come.

5. Drew Stubbs - Stubbs is still plying his trade at high-A Sarasota, where he started off as hot as a supernova. While he has cooled off as of late, his line is still solid at .267/.381/.405/.786 with 22 steals in 29 attempts. Stubbs came out of the University of Texas with a reputation for tremendous defense, good speed, and light-tower power. He is one of the few Longhorns to ever hit the ball over the scoreboard at Texas. However, his current skill set would seem to have him on track to be a leadoff hitter, as his on-base skills and speed are both above average. Stubbs is what we need to see from more of the Reds prospects: great defensively, strong on-base skills, and a high baseball IQ. If he continues to stay on track, he could be the Reds starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for good starting opening day of 2010.

6. Todd Frazier - Previously, I wrote: "Todd Frazier is a baseball player. That sentence may not seem like it says much, but in reality it says it all." That statement continues to be true, as Frazier's polished skill-set is enabling him to climb the ranks of the Reds system. He started out back at low-A Dayton, where he pounded pitchers to a tune of .321/.402/.598/1.000 before getting promoted to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Frazier is currently at .288/.347/.485/.832, which doesn't strike the eye as very impressive, but Sarasota is notoriously tough on hitters. Overall, Frazier is one of the brightest lights in the Reds system and his innate understanding of the game allows all of his solid tools to play up a notch. If he continues to perform as he has, Frazier will continue to climb the levels of the farm system and up even higher on this prospect list.

7. Juan Francisco - Juan is another bright light in the farm system and another example of the importance of international scouting in the modern game. Juan is also working at high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a respectable line of .283/.301/.476/.777 in a pitcher friendly park. Francisco has substantial power and is a very good athlete, but he is less polished than Todd Frazier and still has an alarming K/BB ratio of 69/8. It's difficult to envision a hitter have much MLB success without improving on his approach at the plate, so it's a very large red flag. Still, he's a young player and has significant upside, so he's definitely one to keep an eye on.

8. Devin Mesoraco - Mesoraco was held back in extended spring training to start the year, which led to talk that he was destined to head back to the rookie level Pioner League. But, the Reds eventually sent him to low-A Dayton, where Mesoraco begin to make good on his promise and justify his high draft slot. He is currently hitting .276/.331/.397/.727 after following up a slow start with a nice hot streak. As a catcher, Mesoraco has a long way to go in his development, as he has much to learn on both sides of the dish. Still, after an injury plagued season last year and a bit of a poor start in 2008, it's comforting to see Mesoraco play so capably. Mesoraco has a long way to go, but he's demonstrating a great deal of promise.

9. Travis Wood - Wood slid down many prospects list due to an injury plagued 2007, but he has had a strong bounce back year thus far. He posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA and 41/21 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings at high-A Sarasota. That earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga, where he has strong 24/12 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings pitched. He also has a poor ERA of 6.65, due in large part to back to back games in which he allowed 6 and then 7 earned runs. Still, Wood seems healthy, which should go a long way towards reestablishing him as a quality pitching prospect in the eyes of the national baseball media.

10. Chris Valaika - Valaika is another who slipped down most prospect lists, but he is having a very strong 2008 season. Chris posting a stellar line of .363/.393/.585/.978 at Sarasota and now has a line of .281/.345/.425/.770 at double-A Chattanooga. After some questions emerged about his bat in 2007, Valaika has done his best to answer them in 2008. The jump from A-ball to double-A ball is considered the toughest in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see if Valaika can build on his solid start. In addition, he has improved his defensive play at shortstop to the point that some are wondering whether he might be a legitimate option at shortstop at the big league level, which would only increase his value. Overall, it's been a nice year for Valaika, but he needs to continue to prove that he profiles as more than just a utility infielder at the big league level.

11. Neftali Soto - No one has gotten off to a better start in 2008 than Soto. The Reds assigned him to the rookie league Billings Mustangs, who just got their season underway. In the team's first 5 games, Soto has cranked 4 homeruns and posted a line of .435/.480/1.087/1.567. Soto is a right handed hitter with a beautiful swing. It has a similar fluid grace to Joe DiMaggio's swing. If Soto can be half the MLB player that the Yankee Clipper was, then the Reds will be quite pleased. Personally, I still don't think Soto will be able to stick at shortstop, as he already lacks good first step quickness and will likely only lose range when he inevitably adds weight to his 6'2 frame. Still, Soto is an intriguing prospect and could shoot way up this list if he continues his stellar play.

12. Danny Dorn - Dorn is one of my favorite prospects, but he's had a bit of a strange year. He suffered a knee injury early in the season, which has made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. Still, Dorn has posted a solid line of .272/.368/.474/.842, which is well down from his amazing performance at double-A last year (1.089 OPS). Even so, the on-base skills are strong and given his lack of top flight power, that is what will drive his career. Another strange aspect to Dorn's season is that the Lookouts are using him at several different positions. So far this season, he's played leftfield, rightfield, quite a bit of firstbase, and spent a lot of time at designated hitter. I'm not sure if the Reds are moving him around because they don't view him as a potential starter, so they are attempting to increase his versatility or if they are taking it easy on his injured knee. Regardless, he'd be better off starting every game in leftfield and I hope to see that happen in the near future.

13. Matt Maloney - It's been a tale of two seasons for Maloney, as he started out 2008 with very poor results. However, he's been much better as of late, which has earned him an ERA of 4.93, a whip of 1.37, and a stellar K/BB ratio of 78/28 in 84.0 innings pitched. His peripherals have been solid all year, so a large part of his struggles seem to be poor luck. His BABIP for the season is .331 and his Fielding Independent Pitching has been 3.98, which is much more impressive than his 4.93 ERA. Overall, Maloney has had a deceptively solid season and as the sample size increases his ERA and WHIP should regress to the mean. He should make his debut in Cincinnati later this summer.

14. Josh Ravin - Turning to one of my other favorite prospects, the Reds kept Ravin in extended spring training, but eventually sent him to low-A Dayton. At Dayton, Ravin has shown flashes of brilliance, but also struggled with his command. Ravin fell off of most prospect lists because of his terrible control in 2007. However, I've always loved his mechanics, which should help his command come around, and his pure stuff, so I still rate him highly. At Dayton, Ravin has posted the following: 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 24/16 in 27.0 innings. Clearly, the stuff is there, as he's striking out almost a batter an inning, but it's hard not to be disappointed in the control. However, he's young and I still wouldn't change his ranking on this list, as I'm a true believer. For me, he's definitely someone to watch. Now, if he could only find a consistent arm slot, the sky would be the limit.

15. Adam Rosales - Rosales had a very impressive spring training and he turned all of the right heads in the Reds organization. In addition, he has no longer been relegated to 1b, which is where he spent most of last season due to an elbow injury. So, with the elbow injury no longer of concern, Rosales has been able to climb back up the defensive spectrum, which has really helped him regain some of the value he lost at first base. Still, despite all these positives, Rosales has really struggled at the plate with triple-A Louisville, where he is hitting a paltry .215/.279/.318/.597. Unfortunately, he seems to have given back some of the gains he made in Spring Training. At this point, he seems to be a real long shot to be anything more than a utility infielder at the MLB level.


Well, that's how the first 15 stack up, so the next installment will feature #16-25 and the Other Notables. I'm sure you won't want to miss that!!!

Top Prospect List: #7 Juan Francisco, 3b

Juan Francisco and Johnny Cueto illustrate the importance of having a strong Latin America scouting program. Each is a product of the revived Latin America scouting effort. Each was a product of the Reds baseball academy. In this day and age, it's vital for smaller market teams to have strong farm systems. In order to have a strong farm system, it's vital to supplement the prospects selected in the draft with international prospects signed as free agents. Two of the Reds' top ten prospects were signed as international free agents, which is a very good sign for the future.

Francisco was signed out of the Dominican Republic. He's 6'2", 180 lbs, switch hits, and throws right. He'll be 20 to start the 2008 season, but already possesses some of the best power in the system.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

Francisco made his professional debut in 2006 with the Gulf Coast League Reds. He played 45 games and hit .280/.305/.407/.712 in 182 At Bats. He hit 3 home runs and stole 2 bases, but posted an ugly 35/6 K/BB ratio. He was then promoted to Billings of the Pioneer league, where he hit .333/.333/.417/.750 in 36 At Bats and a 8/0 K/BB ratio.

In 2007, the Reds sent Francisco to low-A Dayton, where he posted a line of .266/.299/.461/.760. He hit 25 homeruns and stole 12 bases in 18 attempts. Francisco again posted an ugly 161/23 K/BB ratio. He had a 4.9 BB% and a 28.4 K%.

It's very impressive to see a young prospect hit with so much power, especially considering that power is often the last tool to develop. In addition, Francisco showed better than expected speed, but needs to improve his success rate on the bases. Clearly, Francisco needs to improve his walk rate and cut down on his strikeouts, but given his age and performance to date there's reason to believe he can do both.

Francisco hit .275/.297/.463/.759 against left-handed pitchers and .263/.301/.463/.764 against right-handed pitchers. He posts very similar numbers from both sides of the plate.

In addition, Francisco had the best day of his professional career, cranking 3 homers in a single game against the Lansing Lugnuts.

OFFENSE

Francisco has the raw power to match anyone in the system. In addition, he has an advanced approach at the plate for such a young player and also has good pitch recognition skills. Francisco has strong hand action and has shown the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field.

He's a switch hitter who doesn't appear to have a weaker side, as his performance from both sides of the plate is impressive. Given that he is only 20 years old, his performance is most impressive and his upside is considerable. His impressive raw athletic ability and his offensive skillset project him to be an impact offensive player in the future.

Obviously, his strikeout rate and walk rate are red flags, but Francisco has time to improve in these areas. His ability to improve in these areas may ultimately determine his career path, but his age and upside are strongly in his favor.

DEFENSE

Francisco has one of the strongest infield arms in the system. Not only is his arm strong, but it's also accurate. Francisco is very athletic and could develop into an above average defensive third baseman. However, Francisco is still raw in the field and some predict that he'll end up in the outfield, where his athleticism and arm still profile well.

In 2007, Francisco had a .923 fielding percentage, which he'll need to improve. In addition, Francisco had 23 Errors against 19 Double Plays, which is a quick and dirty technique suggested by Bill James to analyze a third baseman's defensive performance. Ideally, you want to see more Double Plays than Errors out of your third baseman.

Francisco will need to reduce his errors and polish his defensive game, but he's young and the Reds will be in no hurry to shift him off the hot corner. He's got all the skills needed to be a quality third baseman.

FUTURE

Francisco has tremendous athletic ability. He lacks polish, but he has all the raw skills needed to take it to another level. His power is already tremendous and is only going to improve as he fills out. His age, athleticism, and frame allow for a great deal of projection. If he can improve his walk rate and cut down on his strikeouts, then the sky is truly the limit Francisco. His athleticism is tremendous and development time is definitely on his side, so it'll be very interesting to see what he can do in 2008. A big step forward isn't out of the question.

For now, the switch hitting Juan Francisco lands at #7 on the list.

Down on the Farm: Juan Francisco's Big Day

Reds' prospect Juan Francisco had the best day of his young professional career on Sunday, as he went 3-4 with 3 homeruns and drove in 7 runs for Single A Dayton. The switch hitting Francisco hit two homers from the left side and one from the right side against the Lansing Lugnuts. On the season, Francisco is batting .268/.305/.461/.765 with 21 homeruns and 80 RBIs, which is very solid production out of the 20 year old from our Latin America academies.

Francisco is an intriguing prospect, to say the least, as he's a switch hitting third baseman with good offensive potential. As he matures and fills out, his power potential should increase from its already impressive level. Not only does Francisco have good raw numbers, but so far this season he has demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion. The more crucial the situation, the better Francisco has performed this year, so his approach at the plate has had very successful results.

2007 Splits
Bases Empty: .256/.290/.441/.730
Runners On: .280/.318/.480/.798
Scoring Position: .343/.397/.606/1.003

Francisco is certainly opening some eyes and is one to be followed as he ascends the organizational ladder. The Reds overseas scouting efforts are beginning to bear fruit, as both Johnny Cueto and Juan Francisco were signed as international free agents. Adding these types of prospects in addition to prospects via the draft can have a substantial impact on the fortunes of a farm system. In fact, signing international prospects is vital to the building of a well stocked farm system. The efforts of the Reds' player development department finally appear to be heading in the right direction after years of ineptitude.