Showing posts with label B.Hamilton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label B.Hamilton. Show all posts
Monday, April 25, 2016
Is it sustainable????
Am I crazy or is Billy Hamilton looking better at the plate? More comfortable. More competent.
Naturally, the small sample size caveat applies. Maybe to such an extent that swallows up any notion of improvement...and yet...Hamilton looks improved thus far.
In tonight's game, he faced elite velocity, 95+ all night in the form of Thor and Jeurys. Admittedly, he only went 1-4 and the "1" was a bunt single, but the process was good. Hamilton looked comfortable tracking pitches and standing in against big time heat. He didn't look overmatched or out of place.
In his other 3 ABs, Hamilton grounded out twice and lined out to center. If you read anything, anywhere about Hamilton, then you've been bombarded by the notion that Hamilton needs to hit the ball on the ground to better utilize his speed. He seems to be doing just that. In fact, his peripherals across the board are improved so far in 2016. So, is it a small sample size mirage? Time will tell.
But, here's a quick look at Hamilton's relevant peripherals:
GB/FB
Career: 1.17
2016: 2.80
LD%
Career: 20.8%
2016: 24.0%
BB%
Career: 6.1%
2016: 11.6%
Outside the Zone Swing %
Career: 28.5%
2016: 23.6%
Contact Rate
Career: 83.3%
2016: 86.6%
Year___Soft%__Medium%__Hard%
Career: 21.8%____58.6%_____19.6%
2016: 15.6%______71.9%_____12.5%
Pitches/PA
Career: 3.75
2016: 3.93
BABIP
Career: .286
2016: .179
Isolated Power
Career: .091
2016: .184
And, of course, probably the most important stat: 43.....the number of Billy Hamilton plate appearances in 2016.
So, maybe it's too early to be excited, but I'm certainly encouraged. At a bare minimum, Hamilton is looking like a hitter up there.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Billy and Joey in 2015!!
Despite not doing much this offseason to improve, in the aggregate, a flawed roster, the Reds are poised to head once more into the breach, dear friends, in 2015. If they are going to succeed in spite of their flaws, then they'll need to maximize the production they receive from each roster spot.
Most sabermetric studies find that the optimal batting order is between 5 and 15 runs better than the average lineup. Given that the Reds will likely have little margin for error, improving their win total by 0.5 to 1.5 wins is not insignificant.
In that spirit, it seems clear that the Reds should fill the top two spots in their batting order with Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto. It's not a stretch to say that Billy and Joey are pivotal players for 2015, with their success ultimately driving the offense. That said, slotting these two together may be a key to maximizing the production of each, as Billy's extreme speed and Joey's extreme plate discipline actually compliment each other extremely well.
The Reds flirted with this idea in 2014, but here's a quick list of reasons why this would be the best alignment going forward:
- With the imposing Votto hitting behind him, Hamilton might arguably see better pitches, including more fastballs, though most pitchers already have plenty of reasons to not walk him.
- With Hamilton on base, Votto might see more fastballs, as pitchers don't want Billy running wild on them, which might help boost Joey's extra base hit total.
- Votto sees a lot of pitches, which will allow Billy ample opportunities to steal bases.
- Votto hits from the left side, which arguably allows him to take advantage of the 3.5 hole created when the first baseman is forced to hold Billy on.
- On average, each higher spot in the batting order will collect 15-20 more plate appearances than the spot that follows it, so hitting Votto in the second spot will get more opportunities to impact the game than if he was hitting one slot lower.
- Votto seems to have resigned himself to the "fact" that he's no longer a power hitter, so batting him 2nd would not only get him more PAs but also pair his new view of himself with a lineup spot that traditionally de-emphasizes the importance of power. Maybe such a move reduces either fan expectations or Joey's own cognitive dissonance.
- The emerging power production from Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, along with the addition of Marlon Byrd's power, means that the Reds have better depth in the middle of the order and no longer quite need Joey to be that type of hitter.
On a number of levels, it seems like the best alignment for the two, so I'm throwing my support by a Billy and Joey ticket in 2015!
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Spraying Bullets
Some quick thoughts on the season thus far:
- This has to be worth something: the great Rickey Henderson loves Billy Hamilton. Henderson said "He reminds me so much of me, I had to go hug him. At (Class A) Stockton, we did everything to stop him, but he's just going to steal when he wants." Now, Rickey was only talking about Billy's wheels, but Henderson was great because he got on-base at a very high clip and provide a bit of pop. Still, it's an encouraging endorsement and Billy is starting to hit at triple-A (including a stretch of 11 hits in 24 ABs, arbitrary endpoints be damned!).
- The uproar over Dusty's refusal to switch Zack Cozart out of the 2nd spot in the order is only mildly interesting on a micro-level because it has minimal impact. Lineup construction may, at best, generate an additional win or win-and-a-half over the course of a season. So, it's not so much that the proper lineup would make a massive difference, rather that it's a minimal improvement that costs nothing. In an era when teams are scrounging for anything resembling a competitive advantage, it's somewhat disconcerting for us not to pluck the low-hanging fruit. The added 1+ wins come from (1) maximizing the number of Plate Appearances that your best hitters receive, as happens when you hit higher in the order (each lineup spot gets ~2.5% more PAs than the one directly after it) and (2) based on historical data, the 2nd spot in the order generates more value than the 3rd spot in almost every way of reaching base due to who's typically on base and with how many outs. So, having Cozart hitting second is bad on a number of levels. To me, the lineup construction issue is more interesting on the macro-level. Things got complicated for the organization when Ludwick went down with an injury. But, it's difficult to believe that we failed to find 4th/5th outfielders in whom we could believe. There are players out there who, at minimal cost, could step in and fill the void created by Ludwick's absence. Xavier Paul has put up solid numbers, but his playing time is still sporadic. If we can't count on him to step up and start, then why is he on the roster? Given that we are in win-now mode, is it excusable for the front office to have failed to bring in better depth???
- Chris Sale and Shelby Miller: A remarkable and scary thing has happened over the last week plus. Shelby Miller tossed a near perfect game, allowing only a single to the leadoff hitter before retiring 27 straight batters and posting a 13/0 K/BB ratio in the process, while Chris Sale also flirted with a perfect game before settling for a one-hit shutout with a 7/0 K/BB ratio. Truly remarkable performances for each. Performances that elevate already stellar seasons. The scary part is that both were Shadow Draft selections of mine, Shelby in 2009 and Chris in 2010. That's scary because either I'm starting to understand what makes a good pitching prospect or I've now managed to use up all of my luck on things unrelated to lottery tickets. For more reasons than one, I'm rooting for the former.
- In my 2013 rankings, I rated Tucker Barnhart the Reds 13th overall prospect. In that write-up, I mentioned not only that I loved Barnhart's footwork and defensive prowess, but also that I thought the game may actually be moving back in his direction. That there was an evolution in the valuation of catcher defense. My reasoning was based, in part, on the new studies of the substantial value to be potentially derived from pitch-framing. And, in that spirit, there's a tremendous article on pitch-framing written by Ben Lindbergh over on Grantland. The article, which is lengthy, discusses the issue and provides hypnotic video clips comparing framing done right with framing done wrong. It's definitely a recommended read.
- The Milwaukee Brewers couldn't believe that Donald Lutz managed to keep his homerun fair. Part of the reason he was able to do so is the "bat lag" I mentioned in his write-up. Wily Peralta, who gave up the homer, had this to say: "I thought I made a great pitch and he put a good swing on it, so there's nothing I can do about it. He kept his hands inside and put the barrel on it and made good contact. I don't think he'd do that again. It was the difference in the game." If you want a more extreme example of what I was talking about, then take a look at this photo of golfer Sergio Garcia: Note the small angle formed by the shaft of the club and his left forearm. It's an angle that requires the clubhead has to travel a long distance in a short amount of time to catch up to the hands at the point of contact. For both Garcia and Lutz, despite the lag in their respective swings, the swinger still gets the head of the bat/club into proper position at the point of contact. Lutz's lag certainly isn't as extreme or dramatic as Sergio's, but the lag enables him to keep his hands inside the ball and, despite a slightly later barrel release, still get the barrel to the point of contact in a timely manner. By keeping his hands inside the ball, he was able to hit the ball off the foul pole instead of hooking it foul.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
2013 Top Prospect List: #1 Billy Hamilton, cf
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| Photo courtesy MILB |
DOB: 9/9/1990
HEIGHT 6-1, WEIGHT 160, B/T: S/R
Can he hit?
That's the only question that matters at this point. We'll take the usual spin through his attributes and circumstances, but it all comes down to those three little words.
Billy Hamilton has development risk centered on his hit tool, but he lands at the top of the list because the only competitors in the system for the slot are pitchers, who carry their own bundle of risks, both development and injury. And, none of the pitchers are as freakish as Hamilton. In the last few years, the Reds have acquired and developed two physical freaks, Aroldis Chapman with his 105 mph fastball and Hamilton with his off-the-charts running speed.
Uniqueness and scarcity drive value. And, there is no prospect more unique than Billy Hamilton, which elevates him to the top slot on this list.
DRAFT POSITION AND AMATEUR CAREER
The Reds selected Hamilton with the 57th overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. It may ultimately prove to be the best value pick of the draft. Hamilton was drafted out of Taylorsville High School in Mississippi, where he was a three sport star, and the Reds managed to sign him away from a football scholarship to Mississippi State.
His pre-draft reports all rated his athleticism as plus, but his polish as raw. The fact that he split his time between three sports meant less experience on the diamond. That, coupled with the football scholarship, caused him to slide down draft boards, enabling the Reds to land him in the 2nd round.
2012 SEASON
Hamilton started off the 2012 season at high-A Bakersfield. During his time with the Blaze, Hamilton established himself as a potential impact player, whereas prior to the season he was more curiosity than top prospect.
In his 82 games for the Blaze, he posted a stellar slash line of .323/.413/.439 in 337 ABs, which came along with a 70/50 K/BB ratio, 18/19/1 in 2b/3b/HR, and 104 stolen bases in 125 attempts.That earned him a promotion to double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos of the Southern League.
For the Blue Wahoos, Hamilton kept getting on-base, posting a .286/.406/.383 slash line in 175 ABs with a 43/36 K/BB ratio, 4/5/1 in 2b/3b/HR, and 51 steals in 67 attempts.
In light of Hamilton's offensive profile, that of table-setter and speed merchant, the most impressive aspect of Hamilton's 2012 season was his Isolated Discipline (IsoD), as his OBP was 90 points higher than his batting average at Bakersfield and 120 points higher at Pensacola. That is an extraordinary rate for the simple fact that pitchers have all the incentive in the world to keep Billy Hamilton off the bases. Given his limited power and unlimited speed, pitchers should be looking to pound the strike zone all day long. Even if he puts the bat on the ball, it's unlikely to leave the yard, so there is little danger of mistakes being punished. On the other hand, if he gets on base, he'll wreak havoc. So, the fact that he drew walks at such a high clip at two separate levels is impressive.
I have to think a significant portion of it has to do with pitchers being unable to consistently throw strikes, which won't be the case at the higher levels, but Hamilton deserves credit for embracing on-base percentage as a necessary means of utilizing his speed. It's very rare to find a player with elite speed. It's almost inconceivable to find a player with elite speed who reaches base at a good clip. Hamilton obviously qualifies as the former, but it's looking like he has a real chance to be the latter.
SWING MECHANICS
Hamilton is a natural righthanded hitter. The Reds converted him into a switch-hitting when he joined the professional ranks in order to capitalize on his speed. Oddly enough, I actually slightly prefer his lefthanded swing mechanics.
Here is a great look at Hamilton, courtesy of BullpenBanter on YouTube:
From the right side, he utilizes a slightly wider than shoulder-width stance and a high back-elbow. In his pre-pitch routine, he uses a small bat waggle and, as befits his high energy, always-on-the-go style, constantly grips and re-grips the bat.
As the pitch is delivered, he flexes his elbows inward, which brings the barrel of the bat into a more vertical position. He then utilizes a two-step stride. The first step is a toe-tap, picking his foot up and placing it back down, which enables him to shift his weight towards his back foot and serves as a trigger for drawing his hands back into hitting position. As he draws his hands back into position, he raises his back elbow up even higher, to the point that it's above shoulder level. That high back elbow could add length to his swing path, making him slower to the pitch. The toe tap also serves to cock his hips. After a slight pause to generate load, he strides forward to meet the pitch. This second step of his stride leaves him in a fairly spread out hitting position. One potential problem with his longer stride is that his head drops significantly, which means that his eye level is not consistent throughout the swing. This lack of a consistent eye level could lead to problems with pitch recognition.
At this point in the swing, there is inconsistency. Hamilton occasionally restricts his hip-rotation (see video: swing at the 4:24 mark resulting in weak ground out), which generates most of the power in the swing, by not getting up on his back toe. The limited hip-rotation leaves him with more of an upper-body driven swing, which at times appears to give him some push to his swing. While this limits the power in his swing, he still has the ability to drive the ball.The restricted hip-rotation also restricts his follow-through, as by not coming around on his back foot, his body doesn't release as completely as it otherwise would. So, frequently, his upper-body continues to rotate in his follow-through, while his hips stop prematurely. Again, this limits rotational force to impart on the ball, but it may make him slightly quicker out of the box. I'm not convinced the benefits of the latter outweigh the detriments of the former, but it's worth noting.
When he doesn't restrict his hip rotation, his ability to drive the ball increases (see video: swing at 5:14 mark resulting in a triple). His hips come around more effectively, he gets up more on his back toe, and his follow-through is less restricted.
From the left side, his unnatural side, Hamilton actually looks a touch more fluid (see video: swing at 5:44 mark resulting in a triple), though there are a number of similarities. He starts from a similar wider than shoulder-width stance and uses a bat waggle. He uses the same two-step stride, unweighting the front side, transferring the weight to back foot, and drawing his hands back into hitting position. Again, as he draws his hands back into hitting position, he raises the back elbow above shoulder level. However, one of the differences between his right and left handed swings is the location of the hands at hitting position. From the left side, his hand position is lower and farther back, whereas from the right side his hand position is higher up. The left side position is preferable, as the high position from the right side gives his swing, when coupled with his dropping head, a more downward swing plane and could add length to the swing leading to difficulty handling inside pitches.
His left side swing also occasionally restricts the hip rotation by not getting up on the back foot, which results in a lesser level of force generated. However, he has pop when he does effectively rotate his hips.
Overall, I think Hamilton has a solid set of hitting mechanics and the athleticism to make them work. There are a few issues of concern, including (1) the higher hand position from the right side and, from both sides, (2) the inconsistent hip rotation and (3) the dropping eye level. Even so, Hamilton's speed makes Ichiro his closest MLB equivalent. Hamilton could be successful using Ichiro's slap-and-dash style, but he also has power projection to his game that could bring him success without having to match Ichiro's ridiculous contact skills.
Oddly enough, Hamilton's elite speed also helps his power play up to an acceptable level. Hamilton will never have plus power, but his speed requires infielders to play in when he's at the plate. Not just the corner infielders, but also the middle infielders. The second baseman may have to cheat in to handle drag bunt plays, either fielding or getting over to cover first in time. Also, the shortstop may have to cheat in to handle ground balls in the 5.5 hole, as Hamilton will beat out many, many balls hit in that direction. The fact that the entire infield has to play in on Hamilton will enable him to drive the ball through the infield with greater ease. If they lay back, he can beat the play with his speed. If they play in, then he should have enough pop to drive the ball through the infield.
BUNTING, DEFENSE, AND GAME-CHANGING SPEED
Another way in which Hamilton mitigates the risk in his hit tool is through effective use of the bunt. For Hamilton, it is a weapon unlike any other and he isn't shy about deploying it. Hamilton understands that his job is to get on base and he has embraced the bunt as way to do just that. Oddly enough, Hamilton seems more comfortable bunting from the leftside than his natural rightside.
When he bunts from the rightside (see video at the 4:43 mark), he jabs at the pitch. When he bunts from the leftside, he almost seems to catch the ball with the bat. The best bunters are very calm and controlled at the plate, Hamilton fits that description.
On defense, Hamilton will likely be just fine in centerfield. As it stands, his reads are average at best, but his speed allows him to outrun any mistakes he may make. More experience will allow him to improve his reads off the bat, making him an above average centerfielder. For now, he's making progress.
As for his speed, it's obviously his calling card. And, frankly, he might be the fastest player in history. If not, he's in the conversation. That's not hyperbole. Not only is Hamilton fast, but he's very quick. So, he's up to full speed after only a step or two. He glides across the turf when he runs. Brian L. Hunter was the same way, but he glided across the turf with long, loping strides that just chewed up ground. Hamilton glides and is very light on his feet, but his strides are shorter and his legs are pumping very quickly. Just watching him move makes you think of fast-twitch muscle, as he's like a coiled rubber-band, always on the verge of exploding into movement.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Billy Hamilton is unique and has the chance to be special. He still needs some development time, probably a full season of triple-A. That would give him more ABs from both sides of the plate and allow him to gain more experience in centerfield. In this instance, I think patience would be a virtue, as rushing a prospect up the ladder can stall his development. Hamilton's relative inexperience and change of defensive position are reasons enough to delay his arrival at the Major League level. In reality, the Reds are in win-now mode with a centerfielder who has simply failed to do the job, which could result in Hamilton arriving sooner rather than later.
Overall, if things break right, Hamilton could be a special talent. He understands and embraces the offensive profile he needs to adopt to utilize his abilities, has the confidence and daring needed to be an impact baserunner, and has the plus athleticism to continue improving. There are a few red flags in his hitting mechanics that could be exploited by advanced pitching, but he has time to refine his mechanics and the athleticism to possibly overcome the flaws if he doesn't. For now, his elite speed gives him a very high ceiling, while his hit tool gives him a fairly low floor. He has a wide disparity in potential career paths, but his ceiling is enough to land him at #1 on the list.
Monday, November 19, 2012
AFL Rising Stars Game: A Look at Billy Hamilton
I finally got around to writing up Billy Hamilton's performance in the Rising Star Game. His performance was definitely noteworthy and made him one of the stars of the game. Given the hype surrounding him, it was a tall task for him to live up to the expectations. Yet, he managed to do so. Here's a quick look at what and how he did.
Top of 1st - 0 on, 0 Outs, vs. rhp Jarred Cosart
Pitch 1 - Fastball down, Hamilton shows bunt. Ball 1
Pitch 2 - Fastball down, Hamilton shows bunt. Ball 2
Pitch 3 - Fastball down-and-in. Ball 3
Pitch 4 - Fastball over the heart. Strike 1
Pitch 5 - Fastball over the heart. Strike 2
Pitch 6 - Fastball misses inside. Ball 4
Hamilton never seriously considered swinging and Cosart never forced him to make any difficult swing/no-swing decisions. Cosart's poor control made this an easy AB for Hamilton, putting him in a hitter's count early and letting Hamilton wait him out.
Hamilton appeared to be taking until he got a strike. He showed bunt on the first two pitches, but it didn't look like he was ever seriously considering bunting. When Hamilton reached 3-0, he took two fastballs over the heart of the plate for called strikes 1 and 2. The only pitch that required Hamilton to make a swing/no-swing decision was the full-count pitch, which missed inside for ball 4.
Steals 2nd vs. c Austin Romine and rhp Jarred Cosart
Hamilton steals second base on second pitch fastball. Good pitch for catcher to throw on, as fastball drifted up-and-away off the plate, resulting in a close play at second. Hamilton slides safely into second feet-first.
Hamilton kept his feet moving on his leadoff from first, rather than getting set, seeming to prefer as close to a walking lead as he can get.
The steal of second was about pure speed. He stole it during a 1-0 count, which is both a hitters' count and a fastball count. But, Hamilton doesn't need to pick his spots quite as closely as mere mortals and he simply outran the play.
Steals 3rd vs. c Austin Romine and rhp Jarred Cosart
Hamilton steals third on a delayed steal. Hamilton flashes the brashness and aggressiveness that allows him to steal so many bases. It's one thing to be quick/fast, but you need a lot of confidence to steal as often as Hamilton does. Hamilton took his initial lead off of second base as the pitch was being delivered. He then took three more lateral steps towards third base during his secondary lead. From the centerfield camera, you could see that, instead of retreating back to second base when the catcher caught the ball, he was intently watching the catcher receive the ball and begin to throw it back to the pitcher. Once the catcher flipped the ball back to the pitcher, Hamilton broke for third and stole the base without a throw and with a head-first slide.
Hamilton had a great read on the play, recognizing that the catcher wasn't firing the ball back to the pitcher, rather flipping it back. Also, Hamilton likely realized that by the time the pitcher caught the ball, he'd still have to recognize the steal attempt without panicking and then fire the ball to third to get him. I also wonder if Hamilton factored in that Cosart is righthanded and as a result would have to spin his body in order to throw to third, whereas a lefty is already facing thirdbase and might have a better shot to nail him.
The steal of third showed a take-no-prisoners style of baserunning that wouldn't have been out of place during Ty Cobb's era. Put the pressure on the defense, keep them jumpy and on edge, force them to make a perfect play or into making mistakes.
An impressive and smart play by Hamilton. He caught both the defense and announcers off-guard. While he simply outran the defense on the steal of second, he out-thought the defense on the steal of third.
Hamilton scores from third on a double to the rightfield wall
Bottom of 2nd - Austin Romine double off centerfield wall
Hamilton chases the ball all the way to the warning track, but it hit high off the centerfield wall. It was 2-3 feet from being a homer, instead Romine managed to leg out a triple as the ball bounded back towards the infield. Hamilton, arguably, should have pulled up at, or before, the warning track and played the carom. Even with his great speed he didn't have a realistic chance of running it down and by trying to track it down he let the catcher leg out a triple.
When Hamilton ran the bounding ball down, he threw it back to the cutoff man with the low three-quarter arm-slot that he used as an infielder.
More playing in time in centerfield will improve Hamilton's reads off the bat and allow him to more effectively handle these types of plays.
Top of the 3rd - 0 on, 1 out, vs. rhp Chase Anderson
Pitch 1 - 91-mph fastball low and on outer half. Strike 1
Pitch 2 - 81-mph changeup belt high and running off outside corner. Hamilton swings and (I thought missed, but) ump signals foul tip caught by catcher. Strike 2
Pitch 3 - 79-mph sinker/changeup borderline at bottom of the zone. Hamilton fouls it off to protect. Strike 2
Pitch 4 - 91-mph fastball running away and off outside corner. Hamilton takes it. Ball 1
Pitch 5 - 80-mph changeup low and on outside corner. Hamilton tries to pull it, fouls it off. Strike 2
Pitch 6 - Fastball up and at the letters, Hamilton chops it foul wide of third. Strike 2
Pitch 7 - 76-mph curveball drops over middle of the plate. Very good pitch. Hamilton frozen. Called Strike 3
This AB was the exact opposite of the first AB, as Anderson immediately gets ahead 0-2, putting Hamilton on the defensive the rest of the AB. Unfortunately, this AB once again precludes any study of Hamilton's swing/no-swing decision making, as he was forced into protect mode immediately. Hamilton does a nice job of fouling off pitches and was punched out on a nasty curveball.
Bottom of the 4th - Double by Brian Goodwin
Long flyball to center over Hamilton's head. Hamilton turns and tracks it down on the warning track. When he reaches to catch it, his momentum carries him to the ground. It wasn't a pure diving catch, but he ends up almost kissing the wall as his momentum carries him close to face first into the wall.
Hamilton made the play, but he made it more difficult than it needed to be. It's possible that the ball drifted in the Arizona air or the wind carried it farther than it would normally travel, but Hamilton drifted back with the ball rather than running full out. As a result, he ended up barely reeling it in on the warning track. This is another play where more experience will result in better defense. As it stands, his athleticism allows him to outrun most mistakes he makes, including this one.
Top of the 5th - 1 on, 0 Out, vs. rhp Tony Zych
Pitch 1 - Fastball on outer half at the belt, Hamilton pulls a perfect drag bunt down the first base line. Speed causes first baseman to rush his throw, which sails down the right field line. Hamilton easily advances all the way to third. A single and an E-3.
The bunt was very well executed. The form was good and he looked very comfortable doing it. It's very encouraging to see him combine the secondary skills necessary to utilize his plus-plus speed.
While on third, Hamilton had a running start towards home and got almost halfway home before causing the pitcher to step off the rubber. Disruptive.
Hamilton scores easily on a single to center.
The bunt showed a high level of skill and an understanding of the type of player he needs to be. Hamilton has no problem embracing the small ball skills he needs to be an impact player.
Bottom of the 5th - Corey Dickerson single to centerfield with runners on 1st and 2nd
Hamilton charges a ground ball single and fields it cleanly in shallow center. Hamilton comes up throwing to the plate, but the run scores.
Hamilton's throw is a tick late and up the line. The catcher comes off the plate to field it up the third base line. Hamilton used a high three-quarter arm slot, so it's not surprising that his throw had arm-side run and drifted up the third base line.
Bottom of the 5th - David Adams doubles to right-center gap
Hamilton runs to the right center gap to field a double after right fielder Rhymer Liriano took a poor route. Hamilton cuts it off and stops his momentum about 10 feet short of the warning track, spins and makes a solid throw to the cut-off man. Not the strongest throw, but certainly playable.
Bottom of the 5th - Brian Goodwin doubles with a short hop off the wall in center
Even Hamilton has no shot to run this one down, as its zips over his head. He plays it well off the wall, grabbing the big hop, and throws it towards the second cutoff man. The throw had a little arc to it and it actually came in high, tipping off the glove of the second cutoff man. A solid, but unspectacular throw.
Top of the 7th - Billy Hamilton, 0 on, 0 out, vs. lhp Santos Rodriguez
1st Pitch - Fastball up and away out of the zone. Hamilton tries to drag bunt to third, pops it up and it's caught by the third baseman.
The first opportunity Hamilton has to hit from the right-side of the plate ends quickly. This was a failure of judgment, as he shouldn't have attempted to bunt this pitch. It was out of the zone and difficult to handle, so the pop-out wasn't a surprise.
Top of the 9th - Billy Hamilton, 1 on, 0 out, vs. rhp Trey Haley (plus velocity)
1st Pitch - 92 mph fastball, way outside. Ball 1
2nd Pitch - Fastball very high. Ball 2
3rd Pitch - Fastball up and in. Ball 3
4th Pitch - 92 mph fastball on the outer half. Called strike 1
5th Pitch - 92 mph fastball. Ball 4
This was an opportunity to see how Hamilton fared against plus velocity. One of the question marks on Hamilton is his strength and whether he has the bat speed to turn around a good fastball. Unfortunately, Haley didn't cooperate, once again throwing Hamilton three straight balls to put him in a massive hitter's count. Haley cedes control of the AB to Hamilton and ultimately walks him without Hamilton ever having to lift the bat off his shoulder.
Hamilton forced out at second on a ground ball, ending his day.
Overall, it was a very good game for Hamilton. He drew two walks and reached on a perfectly executed bunt single. He flashed the elite speed that makes him the most hyped prospect in baseball and held his own in centerfield. It was comforting to see him so fully embrace the small ball approach, dropping down two bunts, drawing two walks, and stealing two bases. Admittedly, I was hoping to see him swing the bat a bit more, but Hamilton seems to understand that you can't steal first base and seems committed to maintaining a high on-base percentage.
I'm still not sure how much of his stellar OBP is the result of a disciplined approach and how much is due to command issues of the pitchers. Given his combination of elite speed and minimal power, pitchers have tremendous incentive to throw strikes and yet...they don't. Hamilton's two walks in this game were more attributable to the pitcher's struggles than a grinding approach by Hamilton. Still, he had the good sense to not help the pitcher out and was rewarded with two free passes.
Hamilton still has some developing to do, but he's been impressive thus far. A bit more polish and he'll be ready for prime-time.
Top of 1st - 0 on, 0 Outs, vs. rhp Jarred Cosart
Pitch 1 - Fastball down, Hamilton shows bunt. Ball 1
Pitch 2 - Fastball down, Hamilton shows bunt. Ball 2
Pitch 3 - Fastball down-and-in. Ball 3
Pitch 4 - Fastball over the heart. Strike 1
Pitch 5 - Fastball over the heart. Strike 2
Pitch 6 - Fastball misses inside. Ball 4
Hamilton never seriously considered swinging and Cosart never forced him to make any difficult swing/no-swing decisions. Cosart's poor control made this an easy AB for Hamilton, putting him in a hitter's count early and letting Hamilton wait him out.
Hamilton appeared to be taking until he got a strike. He showed bunt on the first two pitches, but it didn't look like he was ever seriously considering bunting. When Hamilton reached 3-0, he took two fastballs over the heart of the plate for called strikes 1 and 2. The only pitch that required Hamilton to make a swing/no-swing decision was the full-count pitch, which missed inside for ball 4.
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| Photo courtesy of Baseball America. |
Hamilton steals second base on second pitch fastball. Good pitch for catcher to throw on, as fastball drifted up-and-away off the plate, resulting in a close play at second. Hamilton slides safely into second feet-first.
Hamilton kept his feet moving on his leadoff from first, rather than getting set, seeming to prefer as close to a walking lead as he can get.
The steal of second was about pure speed. He stole it during a 1-0 count, which is both a hitters' count and a fastball count. But, Hamilton doesn't need to pick his spots quite as closely as mere mortals and he simply outran the play.
Steals 3rd vs. c Austin Romine and rhp Jarred Cosart
Hamilton steals third on a delayed steal. Hamilton flashes the brashness and aggressiveness that allows him to steal so many bases. It's one thing to be quick/fast, but you need a lot of confidence to steal as often as Hamilton does. Hamilton took his initial lead off of second base as the pitch was being delivered. He then took three more lateral steps towards third base during his secondary lead. From the centerfield camera, you could see that, instead of retreating back to second base when the catcher caught the ball, he was intently watching the catcher receive the ball and begin to throw it back to the pitcher. Once the catcher flipped the ball back to the pitcher, Hamilton broke for third and stole the base without a throw and with a head-first slide.
Hamilton had a great read on the play, recognizing that the catcher wasn't firing the ball back to the pitcher, rather flipping it back. Also, Hamilton likely realized that by the time the pitcher caught the ball, he'd still have to recognize the steal attempt without panicking and then fire the ball to third to get him. I also wonder if Hamilton factored in that Cosart is righthanded and as a result would have to spin his body in order to throw to third, whereas a lefty is already facing thirdbase and might have a better shot to nail him.
The steal of third showed a take-no-prisoners style of baserunning that wouldn't have been out of place during Ty Cobb's era. Put the pressure on the defense, keep them jumpy and on edge, force them to make a perfect play or into making mistakes.
An impressive and smart play by Hamilton. He caught both the defense and announcers off-guard. While he simply outran the defense on the steal of second, he out-thought the defense on the steal of third.
Hamilton scores from third on a double to the rightfield wall
Bottom of 2nd - Austin Romine double off centerfield wall
Hamilton chases the ball all the way to the warning track, but it hit high off the centerfield wall. It was 2-3 feet from being a homer, instead Romine managed to leg out a triple as the ball bounded back towards the infield. Hamilton, arguably, should have pulled up at, or before, the warning track and played the carom. Even with his great speed he didn't have a realistic chance of running it down and by trying to track it down he let the catcher leg out a triple.
When Hamilton ran the bounding ball down, he threw it back to the cutoff man with the low three-quarter arm-slot that he used as an infielder.
More playing in time in centerfield will improve Hamilton's reads off the bat and allow him to more effectively handle these types of plays.
Top of the 3rd - 0 on, 1 out, vs. rhp Chase Anderson
Pitch 1 - 91-mph fastball low and on outer half. Strike 1
Pitch 2 - 81-mph changeup belt high and running off outside corner. Hamilton swings and (I thought missed, but) ump signals foul tip caught by catcher. Strike 2
Pitch 3 - 79-mph sinker/changeup borderline at bottom of the zone. Hamilton fouls it off to protect. Strike 2
Pitch 4 - 91-mph fastball running away and off outside corner. Hamilton takes it. Ball 1
Pitch 5 - 80-mph changeup low and on outside corner. Hamilton tries to pull it, fouls it off. Strike 2
Pitch 6 - Fastball up and at the letters, Hamilton chops it foul wide of third. Strike 2
Pitch 7 - 76-mph curveball drops over middle of the plate. Very good pitch. Hamilton frozen. Called Strike 3
This AB was the exact opposite of the first AB, as Anderson immediately gets ahead 0-2, putting Hamilton on the defensive the rest of the AB. Unfortunately, this AB once again precludes any study of Hamilton's swing/no-swing decision making, as he was forced into protect mode immediately. Hamilton does a nice job of fouling off pitches and was punched out on a nasty curveball.
Bottom of the 4th - Double by Brian Goodwin
Long flyball to center over Hamilton's head. Hamilton turns and tracks it down on the warning track. When he reaches to catch it, his momentum carries him to the ground. It wasn't a pure diving catch, but he ends up almost kissing the wall as his momentum carries him close to face first into the wall.
Hamilton made the play, but he made it more difficult than it needed to be. It's possible that the ball drifted in the Arizona air or the wind carried it farther than it would normally travel, but Hamilton drifted back with the ball rather than running full out. As a result, he ended up barely reeling it in on the warning track. This is another play where more experience will result in better defense. As it stands, his athleticism allows him to outrun most mistakes he makes, including this one.
Top of the 5th - 1 on, 0 Out, vs. rhp Tony Zych
Pitch 1 - Fastball on outer half at the belt, Hamilton pulls a perfect drag bunt down the first base line. Speed causes first baseman to rush his throw, which sails down the right field line. Hamilton easily advances all the way to third. A single and an E-3.
The bunt was very well executed. The form was good and he looked very comfortable doing it. It's very encouraging to see him combine the secondary skills necessary to utilize his plus-plus speed.
While on third, Hamilton had a running start towards home and got almost halfway home before causing the pitcher to step off the rubber. Disruptive.
Hamilton scores easily on a single to center.
The bunt showed a high level of skill and an understanding of the type of player he needs to be. Hamilton has no problem embracing the small ball skills he needs to be an impact player.
Bottom of the 5th - Corey Dickerson single to centerfield with runners on 1st and 2nd
Hamilton charges a ground ball single and fields it cleanly in shallow center. Hamilton comes up throwing to the plate, but the run scores.
Hamilton's throw is a tick late and up the line. The catcher comes off the plate to field it up the third base line. Hamilton used a high three-quarter arm slot, so it's not surprising that his throw had arm-side run and drifted up the third base line.
Bottom of the 5th - David Adams doubles to right-center gap
Hamilton runs to the right center gap to field a double after right fielder Rhymer Liriano took a poor route. Hamilton cuts it off and stops his momentum about 10 feet short of the warning track, spins and makes a solid throw to the cut-off man. Not the strongest throw, but certainly playable.
Bottom of the 5th - Brian Goodwin doubles with a short hop off the wall in center
Even Hamilton has no shot to run this one down, as its zips over his head. He plays it well off the wall, grabbing the big hop, and throws it towards the second cutoff man. The throw had a little arc to it and it actually came in high, tipping off the glove of the second cutoff man. A solid, but unspectacular throw.
Top of the 7th - Billy Hamilton, 0 on, 0 out, vs. lhp Santos Rodriguez
1st Pitch - Fastball up and away out of the zone. Hamilton tries to drag bunt to third, pops it up and it's caught by the third baseman.
The first opportunity Hamilton has to hit from the right-side of the plate ends quickly. This was a failure of judgment, as he shouldn't have attempted to bunt this pitch. It was out of the zone and difficult to handle, so the pop-out wasn't a surprise.
Top of the 9th - Billy Hamilton, 1 on, 0 out, vs. rhp Trey Haley (plus velocity)
1st Pitch - 92 mph fastball, way outside. Ball 1
2nd Pitch - Fastball very high. Ball 2
3rd Pitch - Fastball up and in. Ball 3
4th Pitch - 92 mph fastball on the outer half. Called strike 1
5th Pitch - 92 mph fastball. Ball 4
This was an opportunity to see how Hamilton fared against plus velocity. One of the question marks on Hamilton is his strength and whether he has the bat speed to turn around a good fastball. Unfortunately, Haley didn't cooperate, once again throwing Hamilton three straight balls to put him in a massive hitter's count. Haley cedes control of the AB to Hamilton and ultimately walks him without Hamilton ever having to lift the bat off his shoulder.
Hamilton forced out at second on a ground ball, ending his day.
Overall, it was a very good game for Hamilton. He drew two walks and reached on a perfectly executed bunt single. He flashed the elite speed that makes him the most hyped prospect in baseball and held his own in centerfield. It was comforting to see him so fully embrace the small ball approach, dropping down two bunts, drawing two walks, and stealing two bases. Admittedly, I was hoping to see him swing the bat a bit more, but Hamilton seems to understand that you can't steal first base and seems committed to maintaining a high on-base percentage.
I'm still not sure how much of his stellar OBP is the result of a disciplined approach and how much is due to command issues of the pitchers. Given his combination of elite speed and minimal power, pitchers have tremendous incentive to throw strikes and yet...they don't. Hamilton's two walks in this game were more attributable to the pitcher's struggles than a grinding approach by Hamilton. Still, he had the good sense to not help the pitcher out and was rewarded with two free passes.
Hamilton still has some developing to do, but he's been impressive thus far. A bit more polish and he'll be ready for prime-time.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
2010 Top Prospect List: #11 Billy Hamilton, ss
Billy Hamilton
Height 6-1, Weight 160, B/T: B/R, DOB: 9/9/1990
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: NA
Billy Hamilton is one of the best athletes in the Reds farm system and one of the absolute toughest for me to evaluate. I had him slotted in anywhere from 10 to 24 until he finally landed here in the #11 slot. Hamilton combines one of the highest ceilings with one of the lowest floors in the system. His athleticism elevates his ceiling, while his limited baseball experience drives down his floor. This combination of attributes gives him an extremely wide range of possible career outcomes and it's up to the Reds player development department to start him on the career arc that enables him to reach his ceiling.
DRAFT POSITION AND RAW ATHLETICISM
The Reds selected Hamilton with the 57th overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft out of Taylorsville High School. His off the charts athleticism turned the heads of many an organization, but it was the Reds who reeled him in.
For Taylorsville, Hamilton was a three sport star, excelling in baseball, football, and basketball. The Reds had to sign him away from a football scholarship to Mississippi State University where he was slated to play wide receiver. He was also a guard on his high school basketball team, averaging 35 points a game in his senior season. As for baseball, Hamilton is obviously no slouch, taking home the Mississippi High School Player of the Year for Class 2a.
While it is impressive that Hamilton's athleticism enabled him to excel in three different sports, his multi-sport career also prevented him from focusing solely on baseball. His divided focus prevented Hamilton from getting as much game experience as is typical for premier prospects. So, somewhat ironically, his athleticism is responsible for both his sky-high ceiling and his basement level floor.
2009 SEASON
The Reds sent Hamilton to the rookie level Gulf Coast League after he was signed. He got in 180 plate appearances and despite a strong start, finished off the season with uninspired numbers. On the season, he posted a slash line of .205/.250/.277/.527 with a 47/11 K/BB ratio. He collected 34 hits, including 6 doubles, 3 triples, and 0 homeruns. He did flash his game changing speed, as evidenced by his 14 steals in 17 attempts.
Hamilton got off to a hot start in June, which energized the fan base and started building his value. He hit a solid .333/.370/.375 with an impressive line drive rate of 20%. Even with the strong line drive rate, his BABIP was still abnormally high at .421, which was a sign of things to come. After a strong start, Hamilton hit the skids in July, posting a line of .158/.238/.193. Unfortunately, he was never able to right the ship, posting a .200/.222/.306 in August.
On the season, he struck out in 26.1% of his plate appearances, walked in 6.1% of his plate appearances, and hit line drives at a paltry 14% clip. Obviously, his peripherals were as unimpressive as his overall production. Overall, it's difficult to draw any other conclusion than that he was completely overmatched against one of the lowest levels of competition in the minors. One mitigating factor could be Hamilton's attempt to become a switch hitter. Getting your first taste of pro ball is challenging enough, but trying to do it from the opposite side of the plate increases the difficulty exponentially.
However, the somewhat disturbing part is that Hamilton was actually better from the left side than he was from his natural right side. In 37 ABs from the right side, Hamilton posted an appalling slash line of .135/.158/.162/.320. Granted, it's a very small sample size, but I'm not sure I've seen ever a lower level of production in a non-pitcher. In 128 ABs from the left side, he hit a more respectable .225/.279/.310/.589. So, obviously, it wasn't solely the switch hitting that dragged down his production.
SWING MECHANICS
Hamilton is new to switch hitting. He's a natural right-handed hitter and is still working on his left-handed swing to better utilize his speed. But, for now, let's just take a look at his more natural right-handed swing.
Hamilton hits from a wider than shoulder width stance and a slight crouch. He uses a high pre-pitch hand position and a small bat waggle. His stride involves two steps, first drawing his foot back slightly towards his back foot before striding even farther forward. After his stride foot plants, his hitting position is rather spread out. As the pitch is delivered, he draws his hands back into hitting position.
When he does fire the swing, he opens up too soon with his upper body. In fact, his swing seems to involve too much rotational movement with the upper body, as he somewhat pulls his swing through the zone by spinning out with his upper body and front shoulder. Instead of keeping his shoulder closed and pointed at the pitcher, staying down and through the pitch, releasing the swing, extending out through the ball, and letting the arms finish around his body, Hamilton has a tendency to spin open his front shoulder too soon. The rotational style swing results in a flatter swing path and a lower finishing position for the hands. Another consequence of his spinning out too soon is a swing that is inefficient in imparting energy to the baseball, as power bleeds from the swing when the shoulders and hips fire too soon.
Additionally, when the front shoulder flies open and you pull off the ball, it leaves you susceptible to pitches on the outer half of the plate. Hamilton's lack of extension and spinning out with the upper body gives him poor plate coverage, which helps explain his struggles with pitches down and away. Hamilton's swing may also lead to struggles against good breaking balls.
From the left side, Hamilton is still a real work in progress. Initially, it seems the idea was for Hamilton to start a couple of feet closer to first base to more effectively utilize his speed. Not surprisingly, his swing is still very raw, as he's trying to find the balance and tempo to his swing. In addition, to learning new swing mechanics, Hamilton has to learn how to recognize and track pitches all over again, which is no small task. To become an effective switch hitter, he has a long way to go, as he'll have to both refine the mechanics of the swing and develop a plate approach.
Overall, Hamilton is very, very raw at the plate. Regardless of the side of the plate from which he hits, he has a lot of work to do to develop an effective swing that will play against advanced professional competition. He needs to improve both his contact rate as well as his ability to drive the ball with authority.
If you want to take a look at Hamilton in action, then check out the MLB scouting report and video clip here.
DEFENSE, SPEED, AND POSITIONAL VALUE
Heading into the draft, Hamilton was viewed by many scouts as an outfielder. However, the Reds were one of the organizations who viewed him as a legitimate option at shortstop. His early season performance at short has rewarded their faith in his defensive abilities, as he flashed above-average range and a strong arm.
For the Gulf Coast League Reds, Hamilton had 144 chances and converted 101 outs. He rated out quite well in TotalZone metric, posting a +5 in Runs. So, despite still needing to refine both his positioning and footwork, his plus quickness and speed allow him to really cover the ground at shortstop. He was a bit erratic, as evidenced by his 9 errors and .955 fielding percentage, but that's to be expected in a young shortstop. The initial read off the bat and the first step an infielder takes on a ground ball are key determining factors in whether the play is made. However, Hamilton's defensive performance was impressive and when he polishes up the finer points of his defense, he could become a true impact player on defense.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Hamilton's game is his plus foot speed. He has both good quickness and impressive top end speed. When he runs you can see the electricity in his game, as he has the fast twitch muscles that quickly generate a lot of force. Hamilton is the type of runner who gets to top speed very quickly and when he does seems to almost glide across the turf.
Obviously, Hamilton's value gets a huge boost if he can stick at shortstop, as it is very difficult to find a legitimate defensive shortstop who can actually be an impact player on offense. If you look around the minor leagues, there are actually only a handful of prospects who fit the bill. The ability that Hamilton flashed with the glove is what ultimately earned him such a high spot on this list, as shortstops who can both hit and field are scarce and scarce is valuable.
CONCLUSION
Hamilton is an exciting prospect, but one that is difficult to evaluate. He's undoubtedly high risk, but also very high reward. He could develop into an All Star caliber shortstop or he could flame out entirely. Ultimately, when valuing this type of prospect, it comes down to preference. Whether you value certainty or upside. Whether you like low risk and a high floor, or favor a high ceiling and higher risk. While a lot of factors come into play, I typically favor the prospect with the higher upside and Hamilton certainly has that.
Hamilton has the type of athleticism that could make him an elite prospect if he can learn to translate those tools into baseball specific skills. However, baseball isn't a game that always yields in the face of great athleticism. It takes a great deal of work to learn how to use that athleticism in a way that will generate usable production. It remains to be seen whether Hamilton will be able to effectively harness his abilities, but his upside is just too intriguing to land him any lower on the list than #11.
Height 6-1, Weight 160, B/T: B/R, DOB: 9/9/1990
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: NA
Billy Hamilton is one of the best athletes in the Reds farm system and one of the absolute toughest for me to evaluate. I had him slotted in anywhere from 10 to 24 until he finally landed here in the #11 slot. Hamilton combines one of the highest ceilings with one of the lowest floors in the system. His athleticism elevates his ceiling, while his limited baseball experience drives down his floor. This combination of attributes gives him an extremely wide range of possible career outcomes and it's up to the Reds player development department to start him on the career arc that enables him to reach his ceiling.
DRAFT POSITION AND RAW ATHLETICISM
The Reds selected Hamilton with the 57th overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft out of Taylorsville High School. His off the charts athleticism turned the heads of many an organization, but it was the Reds who reeled him in.
For Taylorsville, Hamilton was a three sport star, excelling in baseball, football, and basketball. The Reds had to sign him away from a football scholarship to Mississippi State University where he was slated to play wide receiver. He was also a guard on his high school basketball team, averaging 35 points a game in his senior season. As for baseball, Hamilton is obviously no slouch, taking home the Mississippi High School Player of the Year for Class 2a.
While it is impressive that Hamilton's athleticism enabled him to excel in three different sports, his multi-sport career also prevented him from focusing solely on baseball. His divided focus prevented Hamilton from getting as much game experience as is typical for premier prospects. So, somewhat ironically, his athleticism is responsible for both his sky-high ceiling and his basement level floor.
2009 SEASON
The Reds sent Hamilton to the rookie level Gulf Coast League after he was signed. He got in 180 plate appearances and despite a strong start, finished off the season with uninspired numbers. On the season, he posted a slash line of .205/.250/.277/.527 with a 47/11 K/BB ratio. He collected 34 hits, including 6 doubles, 3 triples, and 0 homeruns. He did flash his game changing speed, as evidenced by his 14 steals in 17 attempts.
Hamilton got off to a hot start in June, which energized the fan base and started building his value. He hit a solid .333/.370/.375 with an impressive line drive rate of 20%. Even with the strong line drive rate, his BABIP was still abnormally high at .421, which was a sign of things to come. After a strong start, Hamilton hit the skids in July, posting a line of .158/.238/.193. Unfortunately, he was never able to right the ship, posting a .200/.222/.306 in August.
On the season, he struck out in 26.1% of his plate appearances, walked in 6.1% of his plate appearances, and hit line drives at a paltry 14% clip. Obviously, his peripherals were as unimpressive as his overall production. Overall, it's difficult to draw any other conclusion than that he was completely overmatched against one of the lowest levels of competition in the minors. One mitigating factor could be Hamilton's attempt to become a switch hitter. Getting your first taste of pro ball is challenging enough, but trying to do it from the opposite side of the plate increases the difficulty exponentially.
However, the somewhat disturbing part is that Hamilton was actually better from the left side than he was from his natural right side. In 37 ABs from the right side, Hamilton posted an appalling slash line of .135/.158/.162/.320. Granted, it's a very small sample size, but I'm not sure I've seen ever a lower level of production in a non-pitcher. In 128 ABs from the left side, he hit a more respectable .225/.279/.310/.589. So, obviously, it wasn't solely the switch hitting that dragged down his production.
SWING MECHANICS
Hamilton is new to switch hitting. He's a natural right-handed hitter and is still working on his left-handed swing to better utilize his speed. But, for now, let's just take a look at his more natural right-handed swing.
Hamilton hits from a wider than shoulder width stance and a slight crouch. He uses a high pre-pitch hand position and a small bat waggle. His stride involves two steps, first drawing his foot back slightly towards his back foot before striding even farther forward. After his stride foot plants, his hitting position is rather spread out. As the pitch is delivered, he draws his hands back into hitting position.
When he does fire the swing, he opens up too soon with his upper body. In fact, his swing seems to involve too much rotational movement with the upper body, as he somewhat pulls his swing through the zone by spinning out with his upper body and front shoulder. Instead of keeping his shoulder closed and pointed at the pitcher, staying down and through the pitch, releasing the swing, extending out through the ball, and letting the arms finish around his body, Hamilton has a tendency to spin open his front shoulder too soon. The rotational style swing results in a flatter swing path and a lower finishing position for the hands. Another consequence of his spinning out too soon is a swing that is inefficient in imparting energy to the baseball, as power bleeds from the swing when the shoulders and hips fire too soon.
Additionally, when the front shoulder flies open and you pull off the ball, it leaves you susceptible to pitches on the outer half of the plate. Hamilton's lack of extension and spinning out with the upper body gives him poor plate coverage, which helps explain his struggles with pitches down and away. Hamilton's swing may also lead to struggles against good breaking balls.
From the left side, Hamilton is still a real work in progress. Initially, it seems the idea was for Hamilton to start a couple of feet closer to first base to more effectively utilize his speed. Not surprisingly, his swing is still very raw, as he's trying to find the balance and tempo to his swing. In addition, to learning new swing mechanics, Hamilton has to learn how to recognize and track pitches all over again, which is no small task. To become an effective switch hitter, he has a long way to go, as he'll have to both refine the mechanics of the swing and develop a plate approach.
Overall, Hamilton is very, very raw at the plate. Regardless of the side of the plate from which he hits, he has a lot of work to do to develop an effective swing that will play against advanced professional competition. He needs to improve both his contact rate as well as his ability to drive the ball with authority.
If you want to take a look at Hamilton in action, then check out the MLB scouting report and video clip here.
DEFENSE, SPEED, AND POSITIONAL VALUE
Heading into the draft, Hamilton was viewed by many scouts as an outfielder. However, the Reds were one of the organizations who viewed him as a legitimate option at shortstop. His early season performance at short has rewarded their faith in his defensive abilities, as he flashed above-average range and a strong arm.
For the Gulf Coast League Reds, Hamilton had 144 chances and converted 101 outs. He rated out quite well in TotalZone metric, posting a +5 in Runs. So, despite still needing to refine both his positioning and footwork, his plus quickness and speed allow him to really cover the ground at shortstop. He was a bit erratic, as evidenced by his 9 errors and .955 fielding percentage, but that's to be expected in a young shortstop. The initial read off the bat and the first step an infielder takes on a ground ball are key determining factors in whether the play is made. However, Hamilton's defensive performance was impressive and when he polishes up the finer points of his defense, he could become a true impact player on defense.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Hamilton's game is his plus foot speed. He has both good quickness and impressive top end speed. When he runs you can see the electricity in his game, as he has the fast twitch muscles that quickly generate a lot of force. Hamilton is the type of runner who gets to top speed very quickly and when he does seems to almost glide across the turf.
Obviously, Hamilton's value gets a huge boost if he can stick at shortstop, as it is very difficult to find a legitimate defensive shortstop who can actually be an impact player on offense. If you look around the minor leagues, there are actually only a handful of prospects who fit the bill. The ability that Hamilton flashed with the glove is what ultimately earned him such a high spot on this list, as shortstops who can both hit and field are scarce and scarce is valuable.
CONCLUSION
Hamilton is an exciting prospect, but one that is difficult to evaluate. He's undoubtedly high risk, but also very high reward. He could develop into an All Star caliber shortstop or he could flame out entirely. Ultimately, when valuing this type of prospect, it comes down to preference. Whether you value certainty or upside. Whether you like low risk and a high floor, or favor a high ceiling and higher risk. While a lot of factors come into play, I typically favor the prospect with the higher upside and Hamilton certainly has that.
Hamilton has the type of athleticism that could make him an elite prospect if he can learn to translate those tools into baseball specific skills. However, baseball isn't a game that always yields in the face of great athleticism. It takes a great deal of work to learn how to use that athleticism in a way that will generate usable production. It remains to be seen whether Hamilton will be able to effectively harness his abilities, but his upside is just too intriguing to land him any lower on the list than #11.
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