2013 Top Prospect List: #14 Ryan LaMarre, of

Courtesy: MILB.com

RYAN LAMARRE
DOB: 11/21/1988
HEIGHT: 6-2, WEIGHT: 205, B/T: R/L

Generally speaking, Ryan LaMarre is the type of player I like. In fact, he's a player that I wanted the Reds to draft. Unfortunately, his professional career just hasn't played out like I hoped it would.

We all have our own built in set of preferences and favorites. When it comes to baseball players, I have always preferred certain attributes over others; certain things I simply appreciate more than others. I like a blend of tools and skills, including a healthy dose of on-base ability. I like well-rounded players, not one dimensional hitters or pure glove players. I like players who play premier defensive positions, and who play them well. And, maybe because I've always been a fan of the college game, I like college players.

Over time, I have come to recognize my preferences/biases and to guard against them improperly influencing my write-ups. They'll always be there, but since I'm aware they exist, I can minimize their influence and take a fresh look at each player being evaluated. Obviously, Ryan LaMarre ticks a lot of the aforementioned boxes, but he just doesn't grade out as favorably as I would like when evaluating him.

Even though LaMarre is a player I should and do like, the development path down which he has traveled is creating a career trajectory that is both lower and less impressive than I had originally hoped. In baseball, it's difficult to determine whether credit or blame for a player's performance should fall properly on the scouting department or player development department. In this instance, while his career is far from over, I have to question whether the player development department, more specifically the minor league coaching staff, has made the right choices with respect to LaMarre.  


DRAFT POSITION AND AMATEUR CAREER

The Reds selected LaMarre out of the University of Michigan as a draft eligible junior with the 62nd overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.

As a Wolverine, LaMarre posted the following slash lines:

Freshman - .305/.376/.404/.780 with a 25/11 K/BB ratio
Sophomore - .344/.468/.599/1.067 with a 36/33 K/BB ratio
Junior - .419/.459/.649/1.108 with a 20/5 K/BB ratio

For purposes of this write-up, the power production is particularly noteworthy. Not only did LaMarre put up numbers, but he's also a superior athlete. In high school, LaMarre earned 12 varsity letters for Lumen Christi, including four each in football, baseball, and hockey.

In short, LaMarre is a strong, fast athlete with a track record of power production.


2012 SEASON

LaMarre had a cup of coffee at double-A at the tail-end of the 2011 season and returned to that level for the entire 2012 season. For double-A Pensacola, LaMarre hit .263/.356/.353/.708 over 133 games and 482 ABs to go along with 22/3/5 2b/3b/HR, 30 steals in 40 attempts, and a 119/60 K/BB ratio.

There are a number of things to like about his performance, including an OBP that was 0.093 higher than his batting average, a solid 75% success rate on stolen bases, and a 19% line drive rate. He offers an encouraging blend of speed and patience, which is rarer than it should be in professional baseball players. At the same time, the primary problem is obvious and glaring: there's no power.

Prior to the 2012 season, LaMarre said the following:

"I feel like I am still finding out what type of player I am," LaMarre said. "In college, I hit the ball a lot harder, and some of that came with that learning curve. I changed a lot of things mid-season last year (2011) and never really found something I stuck with. This year, I'm hoping to be consistent, stay with something, and I think you'll see the power numbers go up this year." 

Unfortunately, his power actually declined in 2012. In his three seasons of professional baseball, LaMarre has yet to slug over .400 in a season. And, the trend line is heading in the wrong direction. In 2010, split between low-A and high-A, LaMarre slugged .398. In 2011, split between high-A and double-A, he slugged .370. And, in 2012, exclusively at double-A, LaMarre slugged only .353. As the competition has gotten tougher, his ability to drive the ball has gotten worse.

Just for comparison sake, Billy Hamilton, who people have long feared would have the bat knocked out of his hands at the professional level, has already had seasons of .456 and .420 slugging percentages. Granted, Hamilton's speed turns singles in extra base hits at an absurd rate, so part of his slugging is speed based rather than legitimate power, but he's still showing the ability to gain bases in bunches. Something which LaMarre has yet to do.

Whether intentionally or not, LaMarre has embraced and adopted a table-setter offensive profile, but that doesn't mean that he can get away with such minimal power production at the MLB level. If he doesn't show an improved ability to drive the ball, then pitchers have no reason to fear him. If they don't fear him, then they'll just groove fastballs down the middle, which will drastically reduce his walk rate. Even table-setters, in order to be effective, have to keep the opposing pitcher honest.

While LaMarre hasn't shown any power in the past, the real concern is whether his swing will even allow him to hit for power in the future.


SWING MECHANICS

First, it's instructive to look at what LaMarre was doing at the plate back at the University of Michigan and compare it to what he's doing at the plate now. I'm having a very hard time seeing the wisdom of taking a swing that looks like THIS (courtesy of prospectjunkies on YouTube):







And, turning it into THIS (courtesy RedsMinorLeagues on YouTube):





Quite frankly, he looks like a completely different hitter up there. When looking at his swing coming out of college, I thought he probably needed to tighten it up (shorten the stride, get quicker to the pitch), but overall I liked what I saw. It seemed like a tweak or two might be needed, but not a major overhaul. LaMarre opted for the overhaul.

LaMarre uses a significantly wider than shoulder-width stance and a very high back elbow. In fact, his back elbow position is so high that affects his shoulder level, as his back shoulder is higher than the front, causing his bat to tilt towards the pitcher (see photo below). This tilting of both the shoulders and the bat gives him a longer path to the ball, as he has to drop the elbow, level the shoulders, and straighten the bat in the early part of the swing.

Like Jeff Gelalich, LaMarre utilizes a two phase stride. However, unlike Gelalich, LaMarre's stride is disjointed, with two separate and distinct phases. LaMarre's stride, which contains two parts, prevents the lower body from working in proper sync with the upper body. The stride seems isolated and detached from the rest of his swing. LaMarre strides forward, landing on the ball of his foot with his heel in the air and holding his foot in this position. He then rolls off the ball of his foot and brings his heel down to the ground as his hips rotate. So, he interrupts the generation of force from the transfer of the weight from back to front, then lingers in the weak position of being on the ball of his front foot before firing the hips. Also, it's questionable how effective his stride is in cocking the hips to generate load in the swing.

To complicate matters even further, before the heel of his stride foot hits the ground his arms are frequently already in motion to start his swing. He is simultaneously moving his stride foot and firing the arms to swing the bat, which is problematic considering how important a solid foundation is to the swing.

For comparison, at the plate Albert Pujols starts in a spread out position, then uses a stride that consists of raising his front foot up onto the ball of his foot and putting it right back down where it started as his hips fire, but it's one continuous, uninterrupted motion. On the other hand, LaMarre's stop-and-start stride makes the lower body action herky-jerky, robbing it of torque and power. He starts wide and gets wider, then tries to fire the swing while standing on the ball of his front foot. You can't effectively fire the hips if there's a pause between the landing of the stride foot and the firing of the hips.

In fact, LaMarre's stride seems disassociated from the rest of his swing to the extent that any force generated by the lower body largely bleeds out of the swing. This is especially problematic due to the fact that most of the power in the baseball swing is generated by the lower body, so if you hinder that action or eliminate it entirely then you are left largely with an upper body swing. And, upper body swings simply don't generate much power. The fact that LaMarre's swing significantly restricts his lower body action almost necessarily means that the generation of power will be restricted.

Overall, I still think the components are there for a fundamentally sound swing that will play at the MLB level, but the swing continues to develop in the wrong way. The swing that produced significant power in college is still in there. The ability to drive the ball still exists. In the following photo, LaMarre is actually in a very strong hitting position:

In the photo, LaMarre exhibits a solid foundation, a firm front side, his lower body action has him up on the toe of his right foot, and his right elbow is in close to his hip. In short, he's in good position to unleash the force generated by the swing. The problem remains, however, that the lower body action that precedes this position is not effective in generating the force necessary to power the swing: He simply hasn't generated enough force to impart to the baseball. There's nothing there to unleash. Instead, the lower body action creates a disjointed swing where the upper and lower halves are out of sync. So, by the time he reaches the above position, he hasn't generated sufficient rotational force to power the swing. It's very difficult to generate power without effectively incorporating the lower half, especially strong hip rotation, into the swing.

I still really believe that LaMarre would benefit from effectively reincorporating the lower-half back into his swing. He has far too much power potential to consciously sacrifice it, especially since the benefits to be reaped from his restricted lower body action are negligible, at best. Until he commits to rediscovering some power, it's difficult to project him as anything more than a 4th or 5th outfielder.


DEFENSE AND POSITIONAL VALUE

LaMarre is a very good defensive centerfielder due to his plus speed and very good athleticism (before becoming a professional baseball player, he excelled in both football and hockey). Billy Hamilton gets all the ink for his stolen base exploits, and rightfully so, but LaMarre also runs very well. While Hamilton glides over the turf, LaMarre has more physicality to his running.

LaMarre covers a lot of ground and reads the ball well off the bat. In his minor league career, he has played 270 games in center field and 45 in right field. His throwing arm is both strong and accurate and would also play well in right field. In 2011, across two levels, LaMarre tallied 16 assists. In 2012, at double-A, LaMarre collected 20 assists. So, he does well at preventing runners from taking the extra base.

Courtesy: Chris Martin/Bakersfield Blaze

Defense will always be a value-driver for LaMarre, which takes some pressure off the development of his bat. While he's versatile enough to handle all the outfield positions, it would be hard to justify him as a starter in a corner spot unless his power production improves.


FINAL THOUGHTS

LaMarre does so many things well that it's frustrating that he's being undone by the one thing that he isn't doing well. He has top flight athleticism, good tools across the board, the baseball specific skills necessary to translate those tools into production, and good makeup. So, the potential is there, but for him to become an impact talent, he needs to drive the ball better. He doesn't need to hit 30 homers, but 15 a year, when combined with his other attributes, would put him on track to be a potential starter at the MLB level.

For now, the best hope is that GM Walt Jocketty proves prophetic when he said this prior to the 2012 season:

"For a lot of guys, power comes later on in their careers," Jocketty said. "Right now, we want him to focus more on his hitting ability and getting on base. He eventually will hit with more power."

As it stands, the power outage lands LaMarre at #14 on the list, but if he reworks his swing and starts driving the ball consistently, then he'll quickly become a very interesting player.

2012 Top Prospect List: #7 Ryan LaMarre, of

Ryan LaMarre
Height 6-2, Weight 205, B/T: R/L, DOB: 11/21/1988
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #11



It's been an interesting transformation for the Reds farm system. As we all know, back in the Marge Schott era, the Reds gutted the scouting and player development departments in order to save costs and funnel that money into the 25-man roster. Ultimately, Marge's actions to cut costs did nothing more than shift those costs onto the backs of future Reds teams. Not surprisingly,  it caught up to the Reds in a big way. However, after several missteps, their renewed efforts at developing their own players has paid off.

It's a process that seemed to happen in stages, as the first wave of players seemed to be offense-first players who manned the corner positions (Votto, Frazier, Francisco, Bruce, etc). The next wave seemingly focused more on up-the-middle players (Cozart, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Stubbs) who offered more athleticism and diversified skills.

Ryan LaMarre, with his blend of tools and skills at a premier defensive position, followed comfortably on the heels of that second wave when the Reds drafted him with the 62nd overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft. LaMarre didn't waste much time negotiating, electing to sign on the dotted line to get his professional career underway immediately.



2011 Season

Heading into the 2011 season, one could reasonably have expected LaMarre to take a step forward based on his decision to quickly sign his first professional contract. By signing early, he logged invaluable experience in the form of 254 low-A ball ABs at the tail end of the 2010 season. Organizations value that early experience so highly that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement moves the signing deadline for draftees up to an earlier date, which permits them to squeeze in a bit of professional experience in their draft year. Unfortunately, despite getting an early start to his career, LaMarre's 2011 season didn't include the step forward that seemed almost inevitable, as he simply didn't drive the ball like he had in the past.  

LaMarre started the season at high-A Bakersfield where he logged 117 games and 445 ABs in which he hit .279/.347/.371/.718 with 6 homers, 52 steals in 66 attempts, and a 97/42 K/BB. For the Blaze, LaMarre hit line drives at a14% clip, but posted a BABIP of .342, which means that there was a bit of hit luck involved, as the line drives didn't support the BABIP. So, it was in spite of both the power outage and the unsustainable batting average that LaMarre was promoted up to double-A to finish out the season.

For double-A Carolina, LaMarre logged a mere 15 ABs in 5 games. Obviously, the organization just wanted to give him a taste of things to come in 2012. Despite the inconsequential sample size, we'll take a quick look at his double-A numbers anyway. For the Mudcats, LaMarre hit .267/.421/.333 with 3 steals and a 3/3 K/BB ratio. His line drive rate jumped up to 18% and he wasn't overmatched in his first experience above A-ball.

While the power production has been underwhelming, LaMarre still managed to reach double-A in his first full season of professional baseball, which is encouraging even for a polished college prospect. LaMarre will likely return to double-A to start the 2012 season and could be on the fast track to the majors if he proves up to the challenge.


Swing Mechanics

To me, the standout characteristic of LaMarre's 2011 season was the sheer lack of power. It was not something I was expecting, especially since LaMarre posted slugging percentages of .404, .599, and .649 in his three years at the University of Michigan. Clearly, power was never a problem for LaMarre in the amateur ranks, so one possible explanation for his professional power outage would be the switch from metal to wood bats, but I don't believe that to be the cause. LaMarre has, in interviews, proven to be very cognizant of the difference between metal and wood bat swings and the need to develop the latter. Not to mention, in the past, he has had good success in the wood bat Cape Cod league. So, I suspect the power outage has its roots in mechanics, more particularly LaMarre's reworked swing. 

First, let's take a look at what LaMarre was doing at the University of Michigan, courtesy of prospectjunkies:





As you can see, he has a high leg kick and strong hip rotation and lower body action to his swing. He really lets it rip. Now, here's what he was doing in 2011 for Bakersfield, courtesy of RedsMinorLeagues: 






The thing that jumps out at me the most is the new and different stride. Interestingly enough, last year I expressed concern about the length of his swing and the length of his stride, so it's curious to see that he made some changes to his lower half. Here is what I wrote in last year's LaMarre scouting report:

"However, his stride and swing both have a bit of length to them. In the professional ranks, he will likely need to tighten up his swing and shorten his path to the ball to reach his ceiling. If he doesn't, then he may be susceptible to hard fastballs in on the hands. He also may need to work on keeping his hands inside the ball, which isn't a type of swing you see all that often in the metal bat college game where pulling the ball is frequently the name of the game.

Overall, LaMarre has good swing mechanics that could enable him to hit for both average and power. He may need a tweak or two, but he has a sound foundation on which to build his offensive game."

Unfortunately, it seems like LaMarre has made more than a mere tweak, as he has completely reworked the action of his lower half. And, it would seem, not for the better. In fact, if that is the swing he was using on a regular basis in 2011, then it doesn't surprise me at all that his power has vanished.

When some hitters fall into a slump, you hear them describe their problem as "being slow to get the front foot down." To me, LaMarre now has the exact opposite problem.

LaMarre still uses a slightly wider than shoulder-width stance. His stance has a bit of forward lean to it, as his weight is largely on his front foot before he unweights his front foot to begin the stride, which transfers the weight to the back foot before it comes forward again as the stride is completed. However, if you look at LaMarre's new stride, which contains two parts, then it almost seems detached from the rest of his swing. He strides forward, landing on the ball of his foot with his heel in the air and holding his foot in this position for a moment. He then rolls off the ball of his foot and brings his heel down to the ground as his hips rotate. So, he interrupts the flow of his weight transfer from back to front, then lingers in the weak position of being on the ball of his front foot before firing the hips.

For comparison, at the plate Albert Pujols starts in a spread out position, then uses a stride that consists of raising his front foot up onto the ball of his foot and putting it right back down where it started as his hips fire, but it's one continuous, uninterrupted motion. On the other hand, LaMarre's stop-and-start stride makes the lower body action herky-jerky, robbing it of torque and power. He starts wide and gets wider, then tries to fire the hips while standing on the ball of his front foot. You simply can't effectively fire the hips if there is a pause between the landing of the stride foot and the firing of the hips.

In fact, LaMarre's stride seems disassociated from the rest of his swing to the extent that the lower body is largely removed from the swing. This is especially problematic due to the fact that most of the power in the baseball swing is generated by the lower body, so if you hinder that action or eliminate it entirely then you are left largely with an upper body swing. And, upper body swings simply don't generate much power. So, the fact that LaMarre's swing changes have significantly restricted his lower body action almost necessarily means that the power will decrease.

As for the upper body, I still really like LaMarre's swing. He starts with a high back elbow, which he drops when he fires his swing. He does a nice job of throwing the barrel of the bat at the pitch and gets good extension, both of which lend themselves to generating power. At the same time, he maintains good bat control and balance by keeping both hands on the bat during his follow-through.

Overall, I still think all the components are there for a fundamentally sound swing that will play at the MLB level. However, I think the changes he made to his lower half are a step in the wrong direction. Last offseason, I thought he needed to tighten and shorten up his swing as he climbed the ladder, but the changes he ended up making have robbed his swing of lower body action, creating a disjointed swing where the upper and lower halves simply don't work in tandem. It's very difficult to generate power without incorporating the lower half, especially a strong hip rotation, into the swing.

If LaMarre needed to tighten up his swing in 2011, then in 2012 he really needs to focus on effectively reincorporating the lower half back into his swing. LaMarre has far too much power potential to consciously sacrifice it, especially since the benefits to be reaped from his restricted lower body action are negligible, at best. In fact, I'm hopeful that that is not a swing to which he had fully committed, but rather an attempt to work through a swing flaw by temporarily incorporating an exaggerated lower body move.  



Athleticism, Speed, and Defense

The old adage that "speed doesn't slump" certainly rang true for LaMarre in 2011, as he remained a force on the bases despite an underwhelming offensive season. Between the two levels, LaMarre swiped 55 bags in 69 attempts, good for a 79.7% success rate. Clearly, he can be a weapon on the bases.

Overall, LaMarre is a very good athlete who has excelled in other sports. In fact, his manager, Ken Griffey Sr., compared him to Fred Lynn. Evidently, I'm just long enough in the tooth to appreciate that as being especially high praise, as the athletic and graceful Freddie Lynn pulled off the stunning feat of winning both the AL MVP and the AL Rookie of the Year award in the 1975 season. LaMarre attributes his impressive speed to hockey skating drills, which he believes helped him generate strength and explosiveness in his legs.

LaMarre teams with Billy Hamilton to give the Reds organization a speed dynamic that they haven't had in recent memory. LaMarre also makes good use of that speed out in the field, where he covers a lot of ground in the outfield. His aggressive style of play in the field may also have its roots in hockey, as he isn't afraid to lay out for the ball to make a play.

In 2011, LaMarre played 122 games in centerfield and 14 games in rightfield and he has the tools to stick in centerfield as he climbs the ladder. The only thing that would necessitate a move to a corner outfield is the presence of a superior outfielder ahead of him, which Drew Stubbs may well be. But, if that comes to pass, then LaMarre should be able to comfortably slide to a corner spot. 

LaMarre did suffer an ankle injury when his foot hit the first base bag wrong, landing him on the 7-day disabled list. But, the injury was minor and didn't slow him down for long, which is important given the importance of speed to LaMarre's game.

LaMarre's speed helps raise his prospect floor, as even if the bat doesn't reach its ceiling, he could still provide value as a pinch runner/defensive replacement at the MLB level. But, if the bat does develop, then pairing it with his speed could make him a legitimate impact player at the Major League level. 

Final Thoughts

LaMarre is a player I actually wanted the Reds to draft, so obviously I liked him before he got to the Reds organization and his 2011 season did nothing to diminish my appreciation for his game. He offers a nice blend of tools and skills, floor and ceiling, and athleticism and baseball IQ. He's not a finished product and certainly has some development left to do, but his 2012 season at double-A will likely provide a very telling data point to his career trajectory.

Will he reintroduce power to his game and emerge as a potential MLB starter? Or, will his numbers remain down against the tougher double-A level of competition, likely sending him down the path taken by so many 4th and 5th outfielders?

Overall, I remain bullish on LaMarre and slot him in at #11 on the list. I look forward to seeing what 2012 brings for LaMarre...hopefully, a reincorporation of his lower body into his swing.  

2011 Top Prospect List: #11 Ryan LaMarre, of

Ryan LaMarre
Height 6-2, Weight 185, B/T: R/L, DOB: 11/21/1988
2010 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: N/A

His career has barely begun, but Ryan LaMarre is already something of a rarity, as he's the unusual combination of righthanded hitter and lefthanded thrower, but he has an impressive blend of skills and tools that may soon make him noteworthy for his play.

While he hasn't been in the organization for long, LaMarre is already one of my favorite prospects. His natural athleticism and baseball specific skills could make him a very well-rounded player. And, if everything breaks right in his development and all the cosmic tumblers click into place, then he might be a special talent.


COLLEGIATE CAREER AND DRAFT POSITION

The Reds selected LaMarre with the 62nd overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft as a draft eligible junior out of the University of Michigan. Prior to the draft, he was projected as a late first round pick, so the fact that he was still available to the Reds in the 2nd round represents good value.

LaMarre wasn't drafted out of high school, but blossomed into one of the best amateur players in the country at the University of Michigan. In his collegiate career, LaMarre hit .356 with 20 home runs and drove in 125 runs in 140 games. He was a two-time winner of the Bill Freehan award as the the team's top hitter.

Freshman - .305/.376/.404/.780 with a 25/11 K/BB ratio.
Sophomore - .344/.468/.599/1.067 with a 36/33 K/BB ratio.
Junior - .419/.459/.649/1.108 with a 20/5 K/BB ratio.

As a junior, LaMarre missed some time when he broke his thumb diving for a ball in the outfield, but it wasn't enough to stop him from earning All Big Ten first team honors. In the final analysis, it was a stellar collegiate career.

As for high school days, it's worth noting that LaMarre earned 12 varsity letters for Lumen Christi, four each in football, hockey, and baseball. Maybe it's more common than I think, but I'm not sure I've ever actually heard of someone being a four-year varsity athlete in three separate sports. So, in a bit of understatement, I'll just say that he's a fairly good athlete.


2010 SEASON

LaMarre wasted little time in signing a professional contract with the Reds and quickly demonstrated the advantages of signing early.

The Reds sent LaMarre to low-A Dayton to start his professional career. For the Dragons, he played 60 games and collected 227 ABs in which he hit .282/.370/.396 with 5 homers, 18 steals in 25 attempts, and a 53/21 K/BB ratio. It wasn't an explosive debut, as his line drive rate was uninspiring at 14% and his stolen base success rate was only 72%. Even so, LaMarre demonstrated the ability to control the strike zone, which portends well for his future, especially with his strong set of tools. However, it is worth noting that his on-base percentage was boosted by a surprising 12 hit-by-pitches. Given his hockey/football background, it's not inconceivable that LaMarre is using the hit-by-pitch as an offensive weapon, a la Craig Biggio.

The Reds then bumped him up to high-A to finish out the season. For the Lynchburg Hillcats, LaMarre hit .222/.276/.407 with 1 homer, 1 steal in 2 attempts, and a 4/2 K/BB ratio. It's such a small sample size that it barely warrants mention, but he hit line drives at only a 9% clip. Even so, reaching high-A in the half season after he signed was a nice achievement for LaMarre and he'll likely return to high-A to start the 2011 season.

By signing early, LaMarre managed to get into 68 games and collect 254 professional At Bats, which is actually a fairly significant amount of experience, especially when compared to 1st round pick and late signer Yasmani Grandal, who only managed to get into 8 professional games in 2010. I'm all for players negotiating a contract number that they feel they deserve, but there is something to be said for signing early and getting your professional career started. If a player is confident in his abilities, then it may make sense to sign quickly and begin the climb to the majors. The quicker the player reaches the majors, the quicker they obtain their 6 seasons of service time and hit free agency.

Jason Varitek was originally drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 1994 draft, but didn't sign until April 20th, 1995. So, he basically sat out a whole season and someone much smarter than I am calculated that his decision ultimately cost him millions. He may have gotten more money up front in his signing bonus, but he also likely cost himself an MLB season at free agency prices. Obviously, he couldn't have known that he would make it to the majors and have so much success, but holding out for a few hundred thousand more isn't always the best thing for the player.

That certainly won't be the case for LaMarre, who signed early and got the jump on his career. As a result, he put himself in a much better position to start out the 2011 season.


SWING MECHANICS

LaMarre starts with a slightly wider than shoulder-width stance, a low back elbow, and a calm demeanor. His hand position is in close to his body and in front of his right shoulder. To transfer his weight to meet the pitch, he uses a fairly high leg kick and a legitimate stride to meet the pitch. As his stride moves his body forward to meet the pitch, he draws his hands back into proper hitting position. He has good hip rotation, which helps power his swing. After he clears his hips, he fires his swing. LaMarre generates good bat speed and gets good extension out and through the ball, but keeps both hands on the bat during his follow-through.

However, his stride and swing both have a bit of length to them. In the professional ranks, he will likely need to tighten up his swing and shorten his path to the ball to reach his ceiling. If he doesn't, then he may be susceptible to hard fastballs in on the hands. He also may need to work on keeping his hands inside the ball, which isn't a type of swing you see all that often in the metal bat college game where pulling the ball is frequently the name of the game.

Overall, LaMarre has good swing mechanics that could enable him to hit for both average and power. He may need a tweak or two, but he has a sound foundation on which to build his offensive game.






In this second clip, LaMarre doesn't exactly flash good swing mechanics, but it does show his good speed out of the batter's box.







DEFENSE, POSITIONAL VALUE, AND INTANGIBLES

Early reports on LaMarre's defensive abilities are positive. He moves well in the outfield and should have the necessary range for all three positions. He also gets good reads off the bat and good jumps on the ball, which when coupled with his speed enables him to cover a lot of ground. His arm strength is only average, but he has good accuracy.

In 2010, LaMarre split time almost equally between centerfield and rightfield. Obviously, his value will be higher if he can stick in center, but his versatility is a plus, especially with Drew Stubbs likely entrenched in center for the foreseeable future. Overall, LaMarre seems a good bet to be able to handle centerfield, which would make him an intriguing talent.

LaMarre has a nice blend of tools and skills, but he also has something else working in his favor: intangibles. His background in hockey and football gives him an invaluable gamer type mindset which should serve him well in professional baseball. Players with a football background typically have a blue-collar type game. Hockey is a sport that values humility, sacrifice, and putting the team first. These types of intangibles should help LaMarre with the challenges of professional baseball and help his total game be greater than the sum of the individual parts.

Intangibles are important. Whether it's Pete Rose yelling "bunch of losers" at his Big Red Machine teammates to drive them on to victory or Johnny Bench playing through injury to help the team, intangibles are a key part of all great teams. LaMarre may have a few to bring to the table.


CONCLUSION

The Reds have had a lot of success in drafting University of Michigan Wolverines, including such luminaries as Barry Larkin, Chris Sabo, Hal Morris, and others. Hopefully, LeMarre is the next in a long line of Wolverine talent to suit up for the Redlegs. He has an intriguing blend of tools and skills, upside and polish. The fact that he also plays a premier defensive position and plays it well gives him nice total value as a prospect.

LaMarre was actually a player I wanted the Reds to select in the 2010 draft and I was ecstatic to see that they did. I have high hopes for LaMarre and his combination of polish and upside lands him at #11 on the list.

2010 Draft: Final Thoughts

Well, a few final thoughts on the Reds draft class.

1) First, Yasmani Grandal. I touched on Grandal before the draft and my position remains unchanged. He simply didn't seem to be the best value on the board at that point. The main reasons are related to both his performance and his position.

I agree with the philosophy that you take the best player available in the first round, regardless of position. However, I do think positional value HAS to be considered. Catcher is a premier defensive position and when you can add an impact bat at a premier defensive position, then you are potentially gaining a significant advantage over the competition.

When determining a player's value, you have to have a basis of comparison, then you can determine how far above or below that established benchmark a player may be. Typically, you see a player compared to league average or replacement level. Regardless of the specific benchmark, an above average catcher cannot have the same impact as an above average player at another position, as the catcher position has inherent playing time limitations.

In the NL, catchers are going to play only ~135 games, at most. In the AL, where teams have the benefit of the DH, a catcher with a plus hit-tool can contribute at DH on days when he isn't behind the dish. But, in the NL, if you have a catcher who is 25% above replacement level or league average, then he is undeniably valuable. That said, the playing time limitations mean that he won't have the same impact as a player at another position who is 25% above above average or replacement level. The other player will simply be able to provide his +25% production over many more games.

Additionally, the development path for catchers is significantly more perilous than for other positions. Catchers have more to learn on both sides of the game and can also get nicked up more easily than other players. As a result, there is more inherent risk in the catcher position than other non-pitching positions. So, I think you have to factor in the higher level of risk in making your first round selection.

Grandal has some impressive attributes, including switch hitting ability, plus on-base skills, and a potentially solid hit tool. However, when you factor in the inherently lesser impact of the catcher position, the higher level of development risk, and the lingering questions about both his bat and glove that I touched on in my pre-draft write-up means that Grandal is unlikely to be the best option at that point in the draft.

Personally, I have a hard time justifying passing up both college lhp Chris Sale and high school outfielder Josh Sale, both of whom were still on the board when the Reds selected Grandal. Chris Sale was one of the leaders in the nation in both strikeout rate and walk rate. He had a strong combination of stuff and polish. As for Josh Sale, Baseball America rated him as having both the best power and the best plate discipline in the entire high school draft class. One scout was quoted as saying that Sale had the best bat speed he had ever seen in an amateur. Josh also has plus make-up and a strong work ethic. Josh Sale might be the type of bat that, in hindsight, makes everyone wonder how he slipped so far down in the draft.

Grandal certainly has value, but from where I sit there were other players on the board that provided better value and more upside. Unless you have a catching prospect of the Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters, or Buster Posey class, then I'd have a hard time selecting a catcher with a first round pick. It's difficult to add true impact talent to the system, but the first round pick represents the best opportunity to do just that. I'm just not sure Grandal is the best option for doing so.


2) While I'm not wild about Grandal in the first round, I love LaMarre in round 2. LaMarre was someone I wrote up in my pre-draft list of guys the Reds should target. I'm quite surprised that LaMarre slid to the Reds in the second, but I'm ecstatic that he did. LaMarre has potentially five above-average tools, a high baseball IQ, and a hockey player mentality.

LaMarre signed quickly and has already made his debut for low-A Dayton. Some question whether LaMarre can stick in centerfield, but I think he has the speed and instincts to handle it just fine. To me, LaMarre represents very good value in the second round. For better or worse (probably for better most of the time), it's unusual that the Reds actually draft someone I'd like to see them draft, so LaMarre is a pick that I really liked.


3) In rounds 3 and 4, the Reds nabbed a couple of collegiate middle infielders. They selected junior Devin Lohman in round 3 out of Long Beach State. Lohman bats right and throws right, also stands 6-2 and 195 lbs. For the Dirtbags, Lohman hit .404/.471/.550 with 1 homer and and 7 steals in 15 attempts in 40 games. On the season, he hit only 1 homerun, but did manage to collect 17 doubles. Still, it is questionable how much power he'll have in the professional ranks with wood bats.

In round 4, the Reds grabbed Brodie Greene out of Texas A&M. Greene was a senior in 2010, bats right, throws right, stands 6-1 and weighs in at 195 lbs. Greene had very strong production for the Aggies, posting a .395/.462/.673 with 14 homeruns, 23 steals in 28 attempts, and a 31/24 K/BB ratio in 65 games. He has played both secondbase and shortstop at the collegiate level, but he obviously gets a boost in value if he can stick at shortstop. However, the bat has potential for a middle infielder.

Overall, it was a down draft class for MLB, but the Reds did manage to grab a few interesting prospects. The 2011 draft class is reported to be stacked with talent, but the Reds still have managed to grab a few prospects that may play significantly roles in the organization in the future.

2010 Draft: Guys the Reds Should Target

Well, time for the guys that jump out at me and that I'd like to see the Reds target.

Here are the players that I'm really high on. I've already done full write-ups on the top two guys, in order, on my list: Chris Sale and Austin Wilson. Obviously, I'd rather have Bryce Harper or a couple of other guys, but these are the top two realistic options on my board. I really like both Sale and Wilson and would be thrilled with either. Unfortunately, Sale is likely to be off the board by then and Wilson will be a tough sign, especially since the Reds are frequently hesitant to exceed Major League Baseball's slot bonus recommendations.

That said, here are a few other guys whose name I'd love to see the Reds call during the draft.


Reggie Golden - OF, Wetumpka High School

I like Reggie Golden.. a lot. He stands only 5-10, but weighs in at a muscular 210 lbs. He bats right and throws right.

Golden is a potential 5-tool talent and, as a result, he has a very high ceiling. He's got strength and speed to spare. His athleticism rivals that of any player in the draft. But, of course, when you are talking about a player with strong athleticism, you frequently are talking about a player who is raw and lacks polish, which is certainly the case with Golden.

Golden is a bit raw at the plate, but I love his swing mechanics. He has a nice, quiet pre-pitch setup, loads up well, and doesn't get cheated at the plate. He fires the hips well and generates significant bat speed, which gives him good power production. He needs to continue refining his pitch recognition, but his swing mechanics are strong and give him significant offensive upside.

In the field, he is likely to be relegated to the corner outfield spots. He has above average speed, but needs to improve his routes to the ball to more effectively use his speed in the field. His arm is solid, but not a big strength to his game. Still, with additional development he could become an asset on defense and certainly wouldn't be a liability.

Here is a look at Golden in action:




Golden fits the profile of a high risk, high reward high school talent. His upside is tremendous, but his downside risk is also substantial, as baseball is not always kind to those with great athleticism.

Golden would be a reach with the #12 overall pick, but if he's there when the Reds pick in round 2, then they should jump all over him. Unfortunately, the Reds second round pick is #62 overall, as there are a substantial number of picks in the Supplemental Round. However, using their first two picks on Austin Wilson and Reggie Golden would give the Reds two toolsy outfielders with massive upside. Golden just needs more experience to improve his impressive tools, but his upside is tremendous.


Ryan LaMarre - OF, University of Michigan

LaMarre is a standout for the Wolverines who is hitting a robust .419/.453/.649 with a 20/5 K/BB ratio and 6 hit by pitches. Obviously, his walk rate leaves something to be desired, but he has flashed better plate disciplined in the past, so this could be a sample size issue. Additionally, LaMarre broke his thumb diving for a flyball, which cost him playing time, as well as hand strength when he finally returned.

He stands 6-2 and weighs in at 206 lbs, bats right, and throws from the left. He also offers some of the best athleticism in the collegiate ranks. He has a quiet set-up and has fluid swing mechanics. He generates good bat speed and gets good extension, which when coupled with the loft he gets on the ball should give him above average power in the future. He also has good plate coverage and hits effectively to all fields. LaMarre has a sweet righthanded swing that makes him an intriguing hitter.

Here is a look at LaMarre in action:



LaMarre also has good speed. He uses a long stride, which limits his first step quickness, but also enables him to chew up the ground when he gets up to speed. He is a strong defensive outfielder who can handle all three spots effectively. He is a legitimate defensive centerfielder and an intriguing overall prospect.

In addition, LaMarre has the type of intangibles that should make his overall game better than the sum of the individual parts. He has plus make-up, a strong work ethic, and a gamer mentality. In the past, the Reds have had a lot of success with University of Michigan Wolverines, including such names as Barry Larkin, Chris Sabo, Hal Morris, and others, so LeMarre could be the next in a long line of Wolverine talent.

Overall, LaMarre is the type of well-rounded prospect that I'd love to see the Reds land in the draft. He's a nice blend of tools and skills, upside and polish. The fact that he also plays a premier defensive position and plays it well gives him nice total value as a prospect.


Josh Sale - OF, Bishop Blanchet High School

While I typically prefer a well-rounded prospect, it's difficult to overlook Sale's "hit tool." Sale offers some of the best bat speed in the entire draft. In fact, it has been compared favorably to that of uber-prospect Travis Snider, who is one of the best young hitting prospects in the majors.

Sale's value is driven largely by his bat, as he lacks foot-speed, his defense is league average at best, and his positional value is negligible, as he'll be relegated to leftfield or rightfield. So, his bat will determine his career path.

At the plate, Sale's set-up reminds me of Brad Fullmer. But, his swing mechanics are strong and his lightening quick bat generates massive power. He has the type of impact bat that any system can use and would look great in the Cincy system. He'll need to tighten up his swing to close some holes. If he can do so, then he'll be able to hit for average as well as power. If not, then he may struggle with contact and may never hit for average.

Here is a look at Sale in action:




Sale also has great intangibles. He has a strong work ethic and make-up, which should allow him to make the most of his impressive hit tool and limit the drag on his value created by his below average speed and defense.

Overall, Sale is very impressive hitter. His other skills are league average at best, but his hitting ability should more than make up for it. Sale would be a great add to the Reds.


Josh Spence - LHP, Arizona State

The finally prospect on my list is a value play. I wrote the following about Spence in last year's draft write up:

Spence is rapidly becoming a personal favorite. He's the kind of guy that is fun to root for and difficult not to like. Spence doesn't project as an early round prospect, but he might be an intriguing pick in the middle rounds.

Spence is an Australian who decided that he wanted to attend Arizona State University in part because of research he did on the internet. He pitched in junior college before joining ASU and helping to pitch them into the 2009 College World Series in Omaha.

Unfortunately, Spence lacks plus velocity. In fact, he lacks even average velocity. His fastball doesn't touch 90, but he has managed to have very good success with good command and a quality array of breaking balls.

Despite his lack of average velocity, his performance at ASU has been stellar.

In 2009, Spence has posted a 2.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a stellar 109/25 K/BB ratio in 88.2 innings. In addition, Spence has given up only 3 homers in 2009. Scouts don't rate him highly because of his poor velocity, but Spence gets the most out of his gifts and could be the type of crafty lefty that defies expectations in the professional ranks. His lack of velocity will leave him with little margin for error in the professional game, but good control and a strong understanding of how to pitch can make up for a lot of sins.

Spence is a bit of a long shot, but he's a fun prospect and could be a sneaky good value.

Unfortunately, Spence hasn't thrown a single pitch in anger in 2010. He was drafted in the third round of the 2009 draft by the Angels, but he decided to turn it down and return to Arizona State. That decision may come back to haunt the Australian, as he suffered "arm soreness." He reportedly has soreness where the elbow and forearm connect, but no structural issues.

At this point, Spence is a real wildcard, but he offers the type of value that *could* make him a sneaky good pick in the middle to later rounds. I love Spence's "pitchability" and would love to see the Reds take a chance on him with a later pick. He lacks dominating stuff, but knows how to pitch and has success doing it.


FINAL THOUGHTSWell, it's about time for draft day, so time for some final thoughts. I'd love to see the Reds land Chris Sale or Austin Wilson (in that order) with the 12th overall pick. If those guys aren't there, then I'd love to get an impact bat like Josh Sale's.

I'm not sure how or if Reggie Golden or Ryan LaMarre will be available to the Reds, but I'm very high on both and would love to see them in the system. It's unfortunate that the Reds didn't churn enough players to generate supplemental round picks. Additionally, a guy like Josh Spence intrigues me in the later rounds.

Anyway, that's how I see it. As always, it should be fun to see how it shakes out. The Reds could use a good draft to continue it's renewed player development efforts.