All Undervalued Team: Kevin Correia, RHS

Kevin Correia went to California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo before the Giants selected him with the 127th overall pick in the 4th round of the 2002 entry draft. Correia became the first player from that draft class to reach the majors when he made his debut in July of 2003.

He's 6'3", 202 lbs, bats right, and throws right. He has good size for a pitcher and he'll be 27 during the 2008 season.

REPERTOIRE

Correia features a low 90s fastball, a good circle change, and an average slider. However, what sets Correia apart is the movement he gets on his pitches, which can make his pitches truly electric. Former Giant Mike Matheny, highly regarded for his defensive prowess, once said that his hand would get bruised from catching Kevin Correia. Correia's pitches had so much movement on them that Matheny was not able to center the pitch in his catcher's mitt. If a catcher the caliber of Matheny has difficulty catching the pitch, how difficult must it be to hit?

However, while the movement on his pitches has been his biggest weapon, it has also been his biggest detriment. Correia has struggled to consistently throw strikes, due in large part to the movement he gets on his pitches. However, over the past couple of seasons, he has been able to control the movement of his pitchers better, so his command in the zone is improved.

PROFESSIONAL CAREER

In part because of his control problems and in part because the Giants are an oddly run organization, Correia has been bounced around more than is healthy during his professional career. He has spent time in the minors every season from 2002-2005, has been called up and sent down multiple times during those seasons, and has been gone from the rotation to bullpen and back again several times over. At this point, the Giants would be wise to put him in the rotation and leave him there.

In each of the past two years, Correia has pushed his K/BB ratio up to or over 2.00. He spent all of 2006 in the bullpen and spent the first half of 2007 working in relief as well, but he was put back in the rotation in the second half due to the trade of Matt Morris and the team's decision to shutdown Tim Lincecum.

Once in the rotation, Correia made 8 starts in which he posted a 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 34/13 K/BB ratio in 46.0 innings. In total, Correia posted a 3.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, and 7.1 K/9 in 2007. If his 8 starts are any indication, he seems to be ready to take a step forward. In addition, it seems clear that he has made real strides in improving his control, as evidenced by the following:



Key
Strike%: Percentage of Pitches that are Strikes
1st%: Percentage of 1st Pitches that are Strikes
BB/9: Walks per 9 Innings Pitched
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 Innings Pitched

Overall, it seems clear that Correia has improved his control and command, which is the big key to unlocking his potential. If that's the case, then he could be a true sleeper for 2008.

FUTURE

While I desperately want the Reds to acquire Kevin Correia, it appears that he'll remain with the Gigantes. Hopefully, he'll be given the 5th starter slot, behind Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Noah Lowry. If his improved command is for real, then there's no reason why Correia can't have a breakout 2008 season. I actually think he's a better bet for both 2008 and the future than the recently acquired Edinson Volquez, but only time will tell.

Phil Dumatrait's Struggles and Demotion

After four starts, 13.1 innings pitched, and 21 earned runs allowed the Reds had seen enough, as they demoted Phil Dumatrait back to AAA Louisville.

Given his poor situational pitching, weak K/BB ratio, and general lack of command in the minors, his struggles at the MLB level shouldn't really come as much of a surprise. Unfortunately, at this point Dumatrait just is not good enough to be an asset at the major league level. Granted, it's a small sample size, but let's take a look at his pitch data to get a handle on his performance.

During his MLB stint, Dumatrait threw 294 pitches, 168 of which were strikes and 126 of which were balls. So, Dumatrait threw a strike only 57% of the time (Harang: 66%, Arroyo: 65%, Livingston: 65%). It is sometimes said that the most effective pitch in baseball is the first pitch strike. Getting ahead early in the count puts the pitcher in control of the PA and opens up many more options from his arsenal. Unfortunately, Dumatrait only threw a 1st pitch strike 55% of the time (Harang: 65%, Arroyo: 65%, Livingston: 64%).

Accordingly, it seems only logical that Dumatrait would spend more time behind in the count, which is evidenced by the fact that 5% of the plate appearance involved a 3-0 count (Harang: 4%, Arroyo: 4%, Livingston: 1%) which is a bit disturbing when you consider that he issued no intentional walks.

Dumatrait did manage to strike out 6 hitters and all were swinging strikeouts. Dumatrait only managed to get to an 0-2 count in 12% of the plate appearances (Harang: 23%, Arroyo: 19%, Livingston: 18%) and wasn't able to effectively finish off the hitter, which raises questions about the lack of an out pitch. In 33% of 0-2 count situations Dumatrait allowed a hit (Harang: 5%, Arroyo: 6%, Livingston: 4%).

Unfortunately, Dumatrait was done in by a lack of control and just being to hittable. It is very difficult to be successful in the majors if you can't miss bats. If a pitcher gives up too much contact, then he will struggle to maintain consistent success. Dumatrait just allowed to much contact, as 86% of the time contact was made by the hitter when swinging (Harang: 78%, Arroyo: 81%, Livingston: 82%). It may not seem like a big difference, but around 85% seems to be the tipping point, above which sustained MLB success is difficult.

Again, it is undeniably a small sample size, but it does reflect many of the same problems he demonstrated in the minors, only amplified by a better caliber hitter. Hopefully, Dumatrait will head back to the minors, work on his game, and be able to contribute to the Reds in the future. However, at this point, that seems like a bit of a long shot.

Reds Deal Jeff Conine to Mets

Today, the Reds completed the much needed trade of Jeff Conine, which frees up a roster spot and badly needed playing time for the remainder of the season. In the deal, the Reds acquired shortstop Jose Castro and centerfielder Sean Henn from the Mets, both of whom are low level prospects.

According to Baseball America, Sean Henn was the 23rd ranked prospect in the N.Y. Met farm system. Castro was unranked, but he has taken a step forward this season. Castro is only 5'8 and seems, at best, to be a backup infielder at the Major League Level. Here is what Baseball America had to say about Sean Henn:

"Henry has one of the better amateur pedigrees of anyone in the Mets system and hit .481 for USA Baseball's 2003 junior national team that included Billy Butler (Royals) and Neil Walker (Pirates), among others. He has tantalized the Mets with his athleticism, but it took him almost three seasons to get out of rookie ball. Henry is an aggressive hitter with good bat speed and impressive pop for someone of his size. He's a smart baserunner with above average speed that plays well on the bases and in the field. The former shortstop moved to CF last year and showed excellent aptitude there. His clean routes made him look like a natural, but he needs to make an adjustment with his footwork on throws, which differs from the infield. Henry also needs to stay within himself as a hitter because of his tendency to swing for the fences. The Mets were pleased with Henry's progress on both offense and defense in 2006 and he'll finally get a shot to open a season in a full-season league."

Conine, the 41 year old veteran, was no longer of use to a Reds team that is very likely to finish well below .500 this season. Accordingly, the Reds need to use the rest of this season to let prospects get their feet wet at the MLB level. This strategy also enables the Reds to evaluate talent to determine what they need in the offseason.

The Reds called up Jorge Cantu to fill Conine's vacated roster spot. Cantu seems likely to step right into Conine's role on the team and get ABs as the right handed platoon partner of Scott Hatteberg. It remains to be seen what will happen in September, when Joey Votto may well be called up to play 1b. That said, this is another good trade by Krivsky, as he got value (such as it is) for Conine, who was lost to the Reds after the season anyway, and freed up room to play younger prospects.

This is just the latest trade that looks like a winner for Krivksy and the Reds, as the Cantu and Lohse trades are both paying early dividends for the Reds. While a strong case can be made that Krivsky should have been more active at the trade deadline, it is hard to argue that the deals he has completed have been anything other than positive for the Reds.

Down on the Farm: Juan Francisco's Big Day

Reds' prospect Juan Francisco had the best day of his young professional career on Sunday, as he went 3-4 with 3 homeruns and drove in 7 runs for Single A Dayton. The switch hitting Francisco hit two homers from the left side and one from the right side against the Lansing Lugnuts. On the season, Francisco is batting .268/.305/.461/.765 with 21 homeruns and 80 RBIs, which is very solid production out of the 20 year old from our Latin America academies.

Francisco is an intriguing prospect, to say the least, as he's a switch hitting third baseman with good offensive potential. As he matures and fills out, his power potential should increase from its already impressive level. Not only does Francisco have good raw numbers, but so far this season he has demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion. The more crucial the situation, the better Francisco has performed this year, so his approach at the plate has had very successful results.

2007 Splits
Bases Empty: .256/.290/.441/.730
Runners On: .280/.318/.480/.798
Scoring Position: .343/.397/.606/1.003

Francisco is certainly opening some eyes and is one to be followed as he ascends the organizational ladder. The Reds overseas scouting efforts are beginning to bear fruit, as both Johnny Cueto and Juan Francisco were signed as international free agents. Adding these types of prospects in addition to prospects via the draft can have a substantial impact on the fortunes of a farm system. In fact, signing international prospects is vital to the building of a well stocked farm system. The efforts of the Reds' player development department finally appear to be heading in the right direction after years of ineptitude.

Dumi, Livingston, and Homegrown Pitching

After years of futility and a number of false starts, the Reds are finally beginning to build a productive farm system. The Reds have struggled for years to develop quality pitching, but slowly there is a trickle of talent beginning to reach the Majors.

The two blue chip pitching prospects in the Reds farm system, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, have both seen substantial success in the minors. Homer reached the Majors earlier this season, but is down in the minors on a rehab assignment. Johnny Cueto has been dominant at just about every level this year and is poised to make his big league debut either in September or in 2008.

Cueto is also emblematic of another vitally important development for the Reds organization, as he is one of the first prospects to be signed out of Latin America by the Reds revitalized international scouting effort. Adding good international prospects to the farm system each year in addition to those out of the draft is vital for the development of a good farm system. The Reds are finally back to doing so.

The Big Red Machine benefited greatly from international scouting, as Tony Perez was signed by the Reds in 1960 as an amateur free agent, Dave Concepcion was signed as an amateur free agent by the Reds in 1967, as were a few other lesser lights like Manny Sarmiento. Unfortunately, that stream of talent would eventually be dammed up by a shortsighted owner.

Under former owner Marge Schott, the Reds scouting and player development budgets were slashed. Marge believed that she could save money in these areas and plow some of the savings into the Major League roster by doing so. In actuality, Marge wasn't saving money at all, rather she was simply shifting the cost of her actions onto the backs of future Reds' teams. The Reds' organization has had to carry that heavy burden around for the past decade or two.

The Reds enjoyed some short term success, but they mortgaged the future to do so. The cost effective flow of young talent dried up, leaving the Reds struggling to fill holes at the Major League level with expensive free agents (Eric Milton, anyone?). The true cost of Marge Schott's decision is impossible to calculate, but the Reds certainly paid a heavy, heavy price.

While Bailey and Cueto are on the cusp of making their impact at the Major League level, it is a good idea to see what the Reds have to fill the void until they are ready. Bobby Livingston and Phil Dumatrait were both acquired from other organizations, but both are being viewed as potential starting pitchers for the Reds. So, let's take a look and see what we can expect out of them.

Phil Dumatrait has control problems and average stuff. In AAA Louisville this year, he had a 70/48 K/BB ratio in 118.2 innings. Earlier in the year, it was even worse and at times it was almost a 1-to-1 ratio. His promotion to the majors and a more advanced level of competition has only exacerbated the problem. On the season, Dumatrait has a 8.74 ERA, a 2.56 WHIP, a 7.2 BB/9, a 5.6 K/9, and a 0.56 GB/FB ratio in the majors. Granted, it's only been 3 starts and 11.1 innings, but it isn't an encouraging start.

Another disturbing trend is Dumatrait's performance with runners on base. At AAA this year, Dumatrait had a 44/24 K/BB ratio in 60.0 innings pitched with no one on base. However, in 58.2 innings pitched with runners on base, Dumatrait had a 26/24 K/BB ratio. In 31.0 innings pitched with runners in scoring position, Dumatrait had a 12/17 K/BB ratio.

In short, the more crucial the situation, the worse his K/BB ratio. His HR/9 rate also worsens in crucial situations.

Phil Dumatrait 2007 AAA Performance
Situation:____K/9___BB/9 ___HR/9
Bases Empty: ___6.6 ____3.6_____0.6__
Runners On: ____4.0____3.7_____ 0.8__
Scoring Position:__3.5____4.9_____0.9__


That is not a positive trend and to expect much out of Dumatrait would be unwise. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many, strikes out too few, and seems to pitch worse the more crucial the situation. At this point, it seems unlikely that Dumatrait is ready to be a successful major league baseball pitcher. So, our nation turns its lonely eyes to Bobby Livingston.

On the season, Bobby Livingston has a 4.70 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, a 4.0 K/9, a 1.4 BB/9, and a 1.36 GB/FB ratio.

In 56.2 innings pitched at AAA with the bases empty, Livingston had a 38/8 K/BB ratio. In 47.2 innings pitched with Runners on Base, Livingston had a 25/9 K/BB ratio. In 26.2 innings pitched with runners in scoring position, Livingston had a 17/6 K/BB ratio.

In short, Bobby fared a bit worse as the situation got more crucial, but overall performed better than Dumatrait. Livingston also did a much better job avoiding the homerun in crucial situations.

Bobby Livingston 2007 AAA Performance
Situation:_____K/9 ___BB/9 ___HR/9
Bases Empty: ____6.0_____1.3_____0.6__
Runners On: _____4.7_____1.7_____0.6__
Scoring Position:___5.8____2.0_____0.7__

It is often said that Dumatrait has better stuff, but that Livingston is a craftier pitcher. Perhaps these numbers begin to bear that out, as Livingston was able to maintain his level of performance more successfully than Dumatrait.

At this point, even though he was roughed up today, Bobby Livingston seems to be a more viable option to fill the 5th spot in the rotation in 2008. Livingston walks few and gets a heavy percentage of groundballs, but needs to do a better job of missing bats. That said, his performance and his baseball I.Q. make him a better bet for success in the 5th slot in the rotation.

Matt Belisle Sent Down to the Minors

In order to bring up Everyday Eddie Guardado, the Reds option Matt Belisle to Triple A Louisville. GM Wayne Krivsky has taken some heat over the past few days from fans not pleased his decisions. However, I think bringing up Bray and sending down Belisle are exactly what needed to happen.

Reds optioned RHP Matt Belisle to Triple-A Louisville.

Belisle belongs in the bullpen, not the minors, and he'll probably rejoin the Reds as a reliever in two or three weeks. He was 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 23 starts for the Reds, but he did have a solid 91/32 K/BB ratio in 135 innings. With Homer Bailey not yet ready, reliever Mike Gosling or minor leaguer Elizardo Ramirez could take Belisle's spot in the rotaiton. Victor Santos is a less likely possibility.

Belisle has good stuff, but has yet to find his niche. However, we can certainly cross "starting pitcher" off the list. The bullpen may be his best option, as he has the stuff to be an effective setup man. At this point, it is good to see the Reds recognize that he isn't an asset in the rotation. Pulling him from the rotation also enables us to see what else we have in the system.

We need to see if Phil Dumatrait, Bobby Livingston, and Elizardo Ramirez have anything to offer for 2008. Once again, the Reds seem to understand the need to use the rest of 2007 to evaluate what we have for 2008. That's a good sign.

Billy Bray Rides Again!!!!

Finally! After three months of waiting, Reds' fans will finally get to see lefty Billy Bray at the Major League Level. The Reds have been hemorrhaging from the bullpen all season, so Bray could have been very valuable in stopping the bleeding.

"Reds recalled LHP Bill Bray from Triple-A Louisville.

Bray missed the first three months with a broken finger and then shoulder woes before he resumed pitching at Louisville in July. He ended up with a 4.26 ERA and a 29/6 K/BB ratio in 19 innings for the Bats. If he can stay away from the walks, he could be ready to help Cincinnati's pen."

Oddly enough, Everyday Eddie Guardado returned from Tommy John surgery before Bray returned from his finger and shoulder ailments. It is a bit remarkable and very unfortunate that it took Bray so long to get healthy. It took him so long to return that the season is already over for the Reds, which might not have been the case if he was healthy this year.

At the very least, the Reds should have another reliable arm in the bullpen. The rest of this year should be used to evaluate all the options we have in the bullpen. Billy Bray, Jon Coutlangus, Gary Majewski, Marcus McBeth, Jared Burton, Todd Coffey, and others all need to be evaluated with an eye towards 2008. We need to know what we have and what we need heading into the offseason.

All Undervalued Team: Fernando Cabrera, RP

Some interesting and rather surprising news came out of Cleveland today. The Indians released 25 year old reliever Fernando Cabrera. Personally, I'm very surprised they cut him loose and even more surprised that no one traded for him.

"Traded INF Russell Branyan to the Philadelphia Phillies for cash considerations; Claimed INF Chris Gomez off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles; Sent INF Mike Rouse outright to Triple-A Buffalo; Released RHP Fernando Cabrera; Optioned LHP Aaron Laffey to Buffalo."

Given the Reds struggles in the bullpen, picking up Cabrera as fast as possible would seem to be a no-brainer. Cabrera is a young reliever with a power arm, something which is in short supply in the Reds' bullpen. In 2007, Cabrera struck out 10.4 batters and walked 5.9 batters per nine innings. Clearly, he has a tremendous arm, but also some control problems. In his career, Cabrera has posted a 4.6 BB/9 and a 10.0 K/9.

Given his age and upside, this is clearly the type of player on whom the Reds should roll the dice. If he improves his control only a tick or two, then he would likely be a tremendous asset in the bullpen. Not to mention, a switch to the NL should only help, as he would not have to face the DH.

Here's what the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook had to say about Fernando Cabrera:

"The Indians had a poor draft in 1999, as their top pick never made it out of Rookie ball and just one player signed in the first 20 rounds made it past Double-A. That exception is Cabrera, who reached Double-A as a starter but has been groomed as a late-inning reliever since mid-2003. He has been impressive in late-season callups the last two years. Cabrera operates with two plus pitches, a lively 92-96 MPH fastball and a hard, diving splitter. His fastball command has improved since his days as a starter, and he pitches effectively to both sides of the plate. He has both the stuff and the demeanor to close. Cabrera's slider and changeup aren't nearly as effective as his other two offerings. When he stays on top of his slider and doesn't slow down his arm speed with his changeup, both pitches grade out as major league average. He rarely concerns himself with holding runners close to first base.There's no question that Cabrera is Cleveland's closer of the future. The Indians will ease him into the role, however, after re-signing all-star Bob Wickman to finish games in 2006. Cabrera will help set up Wickman this season."

Given the low cost and the substantial upside, it would seem to be exactly the kind of move at which Krivsky excels. Cabrera would be a great risk/reward acquisition. And, if he works out even half as well as the last undervalued player we grabbed from the Indians, then Cabrera would be a huge asset to the bullpen in 2008.

A-Gon and his Reputation

Admittedly, I've been a bit surprised by A-Gon this year. I actually expected a bump in his power numbers due to the GABP effect. However, I wasn't expecting the shoddy glove work.

That said, GABP used to have an unusual park effect for errors. When the park first opened, it was much more likely that an infield error would be made at GABP than other NL parks. Accordingly, I thought I'd check it out to see if A-Gon was making significantly more errors at home.

I started by looking up the fielding park effects for GABP and over the past three years (2004-2006) infielders were 9% more likely to make an error at GABP than the average NL ballpark.

So, on the year, A-Gon has already made 12 errors. I looked up the type of error and the location to see if there was anything in particular going on.

Here's what it looks like:
H/A: Catch__Groundball__Throw===Total
H:_____1_________2_______1___=====4
A:_____1_________5_______2___=====8
Total:__2_________7_______3___=====12

So, much to my disappointment, A-Gon has actually made twice as many errors on the road. And, as to be expected, he has made the most errors on groundballs.

Sad to say, I'm not sure what's going on with A-Gon. I never bought into him being a great defensive shortstop, but I certainly expected him to be above average.

Unfortunately, the truth may ultimately be that this is the real A-Gon. His fielding percentage is currently at .960, which is far from great, but he's actually posted a .960 or lower fielding percentage three other times in his career. So, this actually isn't quite the outlier that we might think.

Fielding percentage certainly isn't everything, but so far his range is only middle of the road. A-Gon's bat has been solid, but it would be nice if his glove lived up to its (perhaps undeserved) reputation.

Harang vs. Indians

There's been a lot of talk about Aaron Harang's "struggles" this season, but I think it's clear that he's pitching better in 2007 than he did in 2006.

Including the 7 strong innings he pitched today against a very tough Indian team, here's how Harang's numbers stack up against 2006 in all the important categories.

2006
ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.27
BB/9: 2.2
K/9: 8.3
HR/9: 1.08

2007
ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.17
BB/9: 1.9
K/9: 8.1
HR/9: 0.77

Busy Week

Well, it's been a busy and important week for Reds fans. With the 2007 season looking more and more like a lost cause, this week has fans looking toward the future. This week saw the long awaited arrival of Homer Bailey and the MLB draft.

As for Bailey, he performed well against a tough Indian lineup in front of 38,696 screaming Reds fans. Bailey went only 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks (1 IBB), and 3 strikeouts. Oddly enough, the Reds let him throw 114 pitches in his first Major League outing. Given Homer's importance to the fortunes of the Reds over the next decade, let's hope that this outing isn't indicative of things to come.

Young pitchers throwing a substantial number of pitches at a young age can lead to arm problems. Young pitchers are often still growing and developing, which makes them even more susceptible to arm injuries from a heavy work load.

As for the draft, the Reds had a number of draft picks and really need to hit a homerun in this draft. The 2007 draft could restock a much improved farm system and pay huge dividends for the future.

In order for a small market team to compete with the larger payroll teams, the small market team must embrace player turnover. A prime example is the Oakland A's, who for years have seen All Stars and MVPs leave for greener pastures in free agency. However, the A's received additional draft picks as compensation for the losses.

That strategy enabled the A's to continually restock their farm system with inexpensive homegrown talent. As player salaries continue to rise at ~10.4% each season, the disparity between the salaries of the established veterans and young prospects continues to grow. Accordingly, the value of inexpensive homegrown talent increases each and every year. That's part of the reason why trade deadline deals for prospects are becoming increasingly rare. Teams have begun to appreciate the actual value of their top flight prospects.

The Reds need to implement a strategy that will see them lose a solid player every year or two to free agency. That will enable them to get compensatory draft picks for those players, which will ensure that they can continue to restock their farm system. The more picks you have, the better your chances of drafting successfully.

This is an important week for the future of the Reds. Time will tell how they did in the draft, but if Homer's performance is indicative of his future performance, then the Reds are at least one step closer to the promise land.

High Altitude Ball

Well, the Reds won the first and lost the second game of the Colorado Series.

On Friday, the Reds called up Bobby Livingston to pitch. Livingston is a grinder who survives on great control and getting ground balls, rather than great stuff. There are three factors that determine whether a pitcher is going to be able to have sustainable success at the Major League level. Three components of pitching are solely within the control of the pitcher: 1) walk rate, 2) strikeout rate, and 3) ground ball rate.

Pitchers with a low walk rate limit the number of batters who reach base by limiting the number of free passes handed out. Pitchers with a good ground ball rate tended to limit the number of homeruns allowed. As for the strikeout rate, analysis has shown that pitchers have no control over whether a ball put in play results in a hit or an out. Accordingly, the fewer balls a pitcher allows to be put into play, the fewer hits he will allow. So, generally speaking, the more batters a pitcher strikes out, the fewer hits he will allow.

Livingston has two of the three things you need to be a successful Major League pitcher. He has a low walk rate, good ground ball tendencies, but he does not have a good strikeout rate. His MLB career will be defined by how many bats he misses. He pitched well on Friday night, but didn't strikeout any hitters, which does not portend well for the future.

Pitchers can be successful with only two of the three components, but in the modern era there are very few pitchers who can be successful over the long run with a strikeout per 9 innings (K/9) rate of below 5.0. After two starts on the year, Livingston's K/9 sits at an anemic 0.8. Basically, over 9 innings, he strikes out less than 1 batter.


As for Saturday's game, the Reds offense went AWOL yet again. After a hot start to the season, Adam Dunn is down to .251 on the season. There was a great of hope for Adam Dunn this year, as he came to camp in great shape and was supposedly working on a new approach at the plate with his former minor league hitting instructor Brook Jacoby. Dunn has been more aggressive, but it doesn't seem to be paying dividends to this point.

Kyle Lohse was solid, which is an improvement over his recent outings, but certainly nothing to write home about. He's due a big free agent payday after this season, but he has yet to prove that he deserves a big contract. The Reds would be wise to let him walk.

Arroyo and Possible Injury

After last night's shellacking at the hands of the Houston Astros, it's looking more and more like Bronson Arroyo is injured.

On May 16th, Arroyo pitched against the Padres and worked 8 strong innings, but was left in to throw 129 pitches. He pitched well, but his 129 pitch was called a ball and resulted in a game losing bases loaded walk.

The bullpen was overworked and unreliable, so Narron enabled Arroyo to work deep into the game. Unfortunately, the Reds did not build a reliable bullpen this past off season, which has resulted in countless lost games and potentially an injury to Arroyo.

Since that game, Arroyo has pitched 3 times, each time getting shelled. He has thrown 11 innings, given up 24 hits, 7 walks, struck out only 4, and allowed 20 runs. During that span, his ERA has risen from 2.64 all the way up to 4.73.

After last night's game against the Astros, Arroyo said that he felt as good as ever and catcher David Ross said that it was the best stuff he'd seen Arroyo have this season. However, the results certainly suggest that Arroyo is pitching hurt, which would be even more unfortunate after the contract extension he received from the Reds over the off season.

This past off season, the Reds gave contract extensions to Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. It seemed like odd time to extend Arroyo, who was coming off a career best season and was still locked into a below market contract that he signed with the Red Sox. Arroyo signed a multiyear contract with the Red Sox that was below market rate in the hopes of staying in Boston, but the contract actually made him a more attractive trade target for the Reds.

The contract paid him $2.75M in 2006, $3.8M in 2007, and $3.95M in 2008. Given that Arroyo had two years left on a very reasonable contract, it seemed a strange time to extend him further. However, that's precisely what the did when they gave him a contract extension through 2010 with a 2011 team option. The Reds gave him an extension which will pay him $9.5M in 2009, $11M in 2010, and a team option for $11M in 2011.

Given that baseball contracts are guaranteed, contracts are largely about assigning the risk between the two parties. When a team hands out a multiyear contract, it is assuming the majority of the risk. If the player gets injured or sees his production decline, he still gets paid at the negotiated rate. Of course, the team has assumed the risk that they will not get the production for which they are paying.

Given that Arroyo was under contract at a very reasonable rate, it seems like the Reds assumed an unnecessary portion of the risk by offering Arroyo an extension. If Arroyo is actually injured, then the Reds decision to assume such a large portion of the risk may come back to haunt them.

Update: Dunn and New Approach at the Plate

Just thought I'd check on Dunn and see how if he is sticking with his more aggressive approach at the plate.

Year: BA / OBP / SLG / OPS

2004: .266/.388/.569/.957

2005: .247/.387/.540/.927

2006: .234/.365/.490/.855

2007: .263/.371/.564/.935

Year: IsoOBP_AB/HR_BB/PA_#P/PA

2004: .122____12.3__.159__4.24

2005: .140____13.6__.170__4.24

2006: .131____14.0__.164__4.18

2007: .108____12.8__.143__4.30

Year: % of Called Strikes / % of Swinging Strikes

2004: 31% / 19%

2005: 31% / 19%

2006: 29% / 22%

2007: 27% / 24% <---Decreased 1% and No change

Year: % Pitches Swung At / % Time Contact made when Swinging

2004: 39% / 72%

2005: 39% / 73%

2006: 40% / 70%

2007: 43% / 67% <--- Increased 1%/1%

Year: ABs per Strike Out

2004: 2.9

2005: 3.2

2006: 2.9

2007: 2.6 <--- Worse/Decline of 0.2

Year: % of Time Swinging at First Pitch of PA

2004: 28%

2005: 25%

2006: 28%

2007: 34% <---- Increased 4%

Dunn is staying aggressive. In fact, he's even more aggressive. He's swinging more often, at more first pitches, and making a bit more contact. His production is much better, but unfortunately his strikeout rate has gotten worse.

It'll be interesting to see how his production plays out over the season if he stays aggressive.

Dunn and New Approach at the Plate

(written at the end of April)

Well, I think it's time to seriously worry about Adam Dunn. I thought it was wise to trade Dunn this past offseason, because I subscribe to the theory that young players who survive solely on Old Player Skills (Power and Patience) tend to peak and decline earlier than young players who utilize a myriad of skills. Intuitively makes sense, as if you start at the bottom of the acceptable spectrum for speed and defense, then when you lose a step due to age you immediately fall below the acceptable floor for a Major Leaguer player. It's going to be much easier for Jose Reyes to continue to be successful when he loses a step, then it is for Adam Dunn.

I still believe that this is a crucial year for Dunn's career, as if he declines yet again then I think it's obvious that he's on the down slope of his career. He really needs a bounce back season, but at this point I'm not encouraged.

At this point, I think it's possible that Dunn peaked in 2004 and is declining. If he is in decline, then he may have lost a bit of bat speed. And, seeing his production decline, I think he has begun to change his approach in an attempt to offset the slower bat speed.

Year: BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

2004: .266/.388/.569/.957

2005: .247/.387/.540/.927

2006: .234/.365/.490/.855

2007: .269/.360/.474/.834

Both his on base skills and his power have been in decline.

Year: IsoOBP_AB/HR_BB/PA_#P/PA

2004: .122____12.3__.159__4.24

2005: .140____13.6__.170__4.24

2006: .131____14.0__.164__4.18

2007: .091____19.5__.124__4.03

Oddly enough, Dunn's power and patience are decreasing. His IsoOBP (OBP-BA), BB/PA (Walk Per Plate Appearance), and Pitches Seen Per Plate Appearance have all declined since 2004. He's getting less patient at the plate.

Not to mention, Dunn's Homerun per AB rate has increased, which means he is hitting homers with less frequency. Where did the power go??? In 2004, he hit a homer once every 12.3 ABs, but in 2007 he is up to one homer every 19.5 ABs.

Now granted, 2007 has a long way to go, but I'm not overly impressed with what I've seen from Dunn thus far. We've heard a lot about Dunn's new physique and the approach Brook Jacoby helped him develop at the plate. Thus far, I don't think the results are very encouraging. It seems like Dunn is getting more aggressive in an attempt to increase his batting average, but in doing so he's losing the power and patience that make him a special hitter.

There is a great new feature at BaseballReference that provides all the pitch data for each player and Adam Dunn's is fairly interesting. It provides clues to the type of approach that Dunn is using in each At Bat.

If Dunn's bat is slowing down, then I'd expect him to change his approach in certain ways. I'd expect him to be more aggressive and swing more often. If he''s being patient and forcing the pitcher to come into him to give him a pitch he can drive, but then can't pound that pitch then I would expect him to swing more often and expand his strike zone.

Whether it's because of a slowing bat or a new approach, that seems to be what Dunn is doing. Here's a breakdown of Dunn's ABs by pitches.

Year: % of Called Strikes/ % of Swinging Strikes

2004: 31% / 19%

2005: 31% / 19%

2006: 29% / 22%

2007: 28% / 24%

He is taking fewer called strikes (31% --> 28%) and getting more swinging strikes (19% --> 24%). So, despite the complaints about Dunn not swinging often enough, he's actually swinging much more often.

Year: % Pitches Swung At / % Time Contact made when Swinging

2004: 39% / 72%

2005: 39% / 73%

2006: 40% / 70%

2007: 42% / 66%

Dunn is swinging at more pitches (39% --> 42%), but making contact much less frequently (72%-->66%). And, sadly, his new approach isn't helping him reduce his strikeout rate. He is putting himself in fewer good hitting counts, because he is getting more aggressive. He seems to be flailing about in an attempt to make up for his declining production.

Year: Strike Outs per AB

2004: 2.9

2005: 3.2

2006: 2.9

2007: 2.8

He's also swinging at more first pitches than in years past:

Year: % of Time Swinging at First Pitch of PA

2004: 28%

2005: 25%

2006: 28%

2007: 30%

So, again, he's getting more aggressive and moving the conclusion of the At Bat up earlier in the count.

It seems like the "new Adam Dunn" has managed to increase his average, but he is seeing a decline in plate discipline, power, and strikeouts. And, if the strikeouts are increasing, then it seems unlikely that he'll be able to maintain any gains in batting average.

To me, it seems that if Dunn has to start swinging more often because his production is in decline, then it's the beginning of the end. If he can't wait for his pitch and crush it when he gets it, then he's not going to be a very valuable player. To me, it seems like Dunn is at the absolute bottom of the acceptable spectrum for making contact. If his contact rate declines even a little bit, then he may cease to be an effective ballplayer and he lacks any other baseball skills to offset the decrease.

Dunn seems to be trying to force a conclusion earlier in the AB, which could reduce strikeouts, but will also likely decrease his power and walk rate. Whether it's just a new approach or an attempt to make up for a slowing bat, something is changing his approach. And, given his limited skill set, any drastic change in approach at the plate seems ill advised. His strengths are diminishing and his weaknesses aren't improving much.

Dunn may be able to increase his batting average, but if it comes at the cost of his power and patience, then the price is just too high. It's still early in 2007, but he needs to take a big step forward this year, not a step backward.

If he declines again this year, then this may be the beginning of the end for Dunn.

Dunn, Maas, and "Old Player Skills"

After watching Dunn continue to pile up the numbers, despite his low batting average, I thought that I'd give the Dunn bashers something that might actually justify their constant worry.

When I see a player like Adam Dunn, who is very big and not especially agile, I always thought this is a guy who is going to age poorly. People get bigger and less mobile as they age, so I think these types of players are going to be especially susceptible to the effects of aging. Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, and Carlos Delgado are some of the players that I thought would be more susceptible to the effects of aging, as they don’t have much margin for error in the mobility and defense departments. Basically, I’ve always thought that big lumbering guys weren’t good bets to be of value later in their careers.

As such, I've pretty much always thought that Adam Dunn shouldn't be brought back much after the age of 30. At that point, he’ll be very expensive and his game seems unlikely to stand up to the test of time. I’m a huge Dunn backer, but I’m not sure that even I want to see him in GABP at first base or in leftfield at the age of 33.

In that same vein, I recently came across a book which contained a Bill James wrote an article wherein he discussed what he called “Old Player’s Skills” and “Young Player’s Skills”. I found it to be rather interesting, as James breaks down the issue much further, and I couldn’t help but think of a player that we all know and love (well, not all of us ;)).

In essence, James considers power and drawing walks to be “Old Player’s Skills”, as the majority of players tend to improve their power and walks as they age (I don’t necessarily agree much with the improved walk rate, but that’s a discussion for another day ;)). And, he considers speed and batting average to be “Young Player’s Skills”, as batting average and speed decline over time.

Now, here’s the part that directly relates to the Reds. James believes that young players who succeed primarily on the basis of “Old Player’s Skills” will peak EARLIER in their career and age FASTER! I’m sure we can all think of a particular Reds player who fits this mold.

I won’t get into their specific details, but James performed a couple of studies in which the players with “young player’s skills” did indeed have substantially longer careers than those who relied primarily on “old player’s skills”. Not to say that those players who relied on “old player skills” didn’t have good careers, but rather that they peaked earlier and didn’t last as long.

Recently, the writers at Baseball Prospectus recently used James’ theory to explain the remarkable career of Kevin Maas. For those of you who don’t know, Maas was at one time the hottest thing since sliced bread. Maas came up in 1990 at the age of 25, which is a bit old for a prospect, and hit 21 homers in 254 At Bats. Maas exploded onto the scene that summer and was compared to everyone from Will Clark to Roy Hobbs. Maas still holds the MLB record for being the fastest player to reach 10 homeruns, which he managed to do in 77 At Bats. He captured the imagination of much of the baseball world, including me.

Maas was a good prospect before hitting the majors, but he was one who relied on “old player skills”. He had a strong OBP and good power, but a knee injury and poor genetics robbed him of speed and agility, which made him a poor defender. He also never posted a great batting average in the minors, but likely deserved to be called up before the age of 25. After his meteoric rise, it didn’t take long for Maas to struggle and his career flamed out at an early age.

Now, Maas is an extreme example, but I think James may have been on to something with his theory. Now, that’s NOT to say that having a YOUNG player on the team who succeeds by virtue of “old player’s skills” isn’t a good idea, but rather that one should be wary of keeping him on the team for too long.

In other words, giving Dunn a HUGE contract after his current one expires may not be the best idea in the world, as he may well peak earlier and fade away faster than expected. And, having a big dollar contract tied up in a player of that kind could be crippling to this franchise. In James’s view, Dunn’s batting average won’t get better as he ages, but rather it’ll worsen. And, Dunn will become even more lumbering, as he adds on the pounds that come with aging and loses the speed that goes with it.

How much worse can Dunn’s batting average and defense get before it outweighs his walk and power production? At some point, the immense power and walk benefits that Dunn provides will be outweighed by his defensive, mobility, and batting average problems.

It won’t happen this year or next year or even the year after that, but it’ll likely happen SOONER than we think. Hopefully, the front office takes that into account when considering the next contract for Adam Dunn. Enjoy Dunn while it lasts, as he might not be around as long as we should hope.

As usual, just my $.02.