The Paul Janish Conundrum

I've always liked Janish and what he brings to the table, but if he's going to be the every day starter, then he has to bring just a bit more on the offensive side. Not a ton more, but a bit.

When you play elite defense at a premier defensive position, then you can get away with minimal offensive production, especially in the first three years of your MLB career. The efficiency of production in a young player is difficult to match.

So, what about Janish's offensive game? Is there hope?

Some additional thoughts on Janish.

Obviously, there is a lot to like about his glove work, but there are a few things to like about his offensive game.

First, I'll say I like his approach at the plate. He uses a calm approach and a compact swing that gives him a short path to the ball and allows him to stay balanced throughout his swing. And, his swing generates a lot of line drives. It's not award winning, but it should/could be serviceable.

Hitting is about walks, contact rate, and the type of contact.

1. Janish has good plate discipline. In the minors, his career OBP was 0.90 points higher than his batting average, which is impressive, especially so for a middle infielder.

So, he knows how to control the zone and draw a walk.

2. For his MLB career, Janish is making contact when he swings 83.9% of the time. Not great, but certainly not bad. In addition, his K/AB percentage at the MLB level is 17.3%, so he strikes out less than 1 out of every 5 at bats. Again, very respectable.

3. As for type of contact, Janish again is surprisingly strong, as evidenced by his MLB career line drive rate of 19.8%. When he makes contact, he hits a lot of line drives.

When you add those factors together, you have the makings of a productive hitter. He draws his fair share of walks, makes contact at a good clip, and when he makes contact he hits a high percentage of line drives.

So, why is hitting a paltry .211 when he doesn't strike out an exorbitant amount and hits line drives at a good clip? Given his components, one would think that he would be a bit more productive. His BABIP was .230 in 2008 and .247 in 2009, but I'm not sure we can chalk it up to luck.

Here, in a nutshell, is the real problem with Paul Janish: infield fly balls.

In each of his 2008 and 2009 seasons, his infield fly ball rate was 16%, which is very high. So, when he hits the ball in the air, 16% of the time it stays on the infield. And, unfortunately, infield flyballs are the absolute worst type of ball in play you can have, as they result in an out 95%+ of the time. In essence, it's an automatic out.

The question is why does he hit so many infield flyballs and is it going to be a consistent problem?

Obviously, a lack of power has something to do with it. He simply doesn't drive the ball with much authority, so it doesn't leave the infield. Still, that's not entirely it, as Rocco Baldelli is another hitter who consistently posts high infield fly rates (15% for his career), but one who has no shortage of power. So, it's not just a lack of power and it's not likely a problem that is going to go vanish on its own.

I don't have any evidence to support it, but I suspect that he simply chases too many high fastballs. He doesn't have the bat speed or power to effectively handle and hit the higher fastballs. Whatever the reason, if he can chop that rate down by a handful of percentage points, then all of a sudden his walk rate, contact rate, and line drive tendencies will work more effectively to raise his level of production. It sounds simple, but I suspect cutting down on the infield flies would be enough of a difference maker to make him a viable starting shortstop at the MLB level. It could raise his batting average and OPS just enough to exceed the threshold level to be a viable every day player.

As it stands now, Paul Janish might be the least effective hitter in all of baseball when he hits the ball in the air. His 16% infield flyball percentage and his dreadfully low 1.7% HR/FB mark indicate that he should hit the ball in the air as infrequently as possible. He rarely hits homeruns and frequently doesn't get the ball past the infield. Unfortunately, it's not just the percentage of flyballs that don't leave the infield that give him problems, but also the overall percentage of balls that he hits in the air.

To compare Janish to a couple of players, David Eckstein and Adam Everett, who boast similarly atrocious power, it's clear that Janish just hits the ball in the air all too often.

Player: LD%, GB%, FB%, IFFB%
Janish: 19.8%, 36.6%, 43.6%, 16.0%,
Eckstein: 21.3%, 46.8%, 31.9%, 12.6%
Everett: 18.8%, 39.5%, 41.7%, 16.7%

The obvious problem is that Janish isn't hitting enough balls on the ground. David Eckstein also lacks any semblance of power, but he's smart enough to recognize this and respond accordingly by hitting the ball on the ground at very high rate. And, ultimately, there really isn't all that much difference between Janish and Adam Everett.

Of course, that only deals with the type of contact and omits the rate of contact (Eckstein: 92.2%, Everett: 82.4%, and Janish: 83.9%). Obviously, Eckstein is a more effective hitter because of both the contact rate and the type of contact he generates. On the other hand, there isn't much difference between Paul Janish and Adam Everett. Janish has a better contact rate and higher line drive percentage, but Everett has a bit more power and hits the ball on the ground a bit more.

Ultimately, it would seem to me that Janish, with a tweak or two in his approach, could improve his production to get to an acceptable level. It seems like hitting more balls on the ground is the type of change that could actually be made with the help of some good coaching. Now, even the end result wouldn't be a Barry Larkin type level, but rather an absolute bare minimum level of competence with the lumber. Everett and Jack Wilson are similar glove-first type players and they have gotten away with career OPS marks of .648 and .684 respectively. Not much higher than where Janish is now and just a bit of improvement would get Janish to that level.

Obviously, there is a risk that Janish doesn't take a step forward on offense, but by that time Zack Cozart, Chris Valaika, or another option will likely present itself.

Reds in on Noah Lowry??

Well, the hot stove is starting to heat up and it looks like the Reds are actually considering doing something I'd like to see them do, which is a real rarity. Mark Sheldon, mlb.com Reds beat writer, reports that the Reds are interested in southpaw Noah Lowry.

Here's the blurb:

With only a one day break on Sunday after two days of Redsfest, the Winter Meetings will be up and running at full speed on Monday in Indianapolis. Reds GM Walt Jocketty was hopeful that his team would be involved in some activity.

"I'd say I'm hopeful that something will happen. It makes the week a lot more fun," Jocketty said on Saturday.

Jocketty confirmed recent reports that the Reds were interested in free agent infielder Jamey Carroll and left-handed starter Noah Lowry.

"We haven't discussed him at length," Jocketty said of Carroll. "He's gutty and a tough player, a gamer-type of guy that's hard-nosed."

Carroll would be a possible choice for shortstop where Paul Janish currently plays. But that doesn't mean the Reds are souring on Janish, although they've made their interest in adding someone there known.

"If there was somebody that stands out as a good defensive player and a better offensive player, we'd have to be interested," Jocketty said. "But both Dusty and I would be happy with Janish as our shortstop because defense is so key."

Carroll spent the last two seasons with the Indians but did not play shortstop there. He did play second base, third base and both corner outfield spots.

As for Lowry, who has been with the Giants for all of his five big league seasons, he could be someone for the vacant fifth spot in the Reds rotation.

"If he's healthy, yeah," Jocketty said.

Lowry hasn't pitched since 2007 because of a myriad of injuries. He had forarm surgery two years ago and in 2009, had a rib removed to relieve soreness in his shoulder and neck brought on by a condition called thoracic outlet syndrome.

Suffice it to say, I think a healthy Lowry could potentially be a very good addition to the organization. Nice to see the Reds, at the very least, kick the tires on Noah.

$3.5M

$3,500,000.00.

In a modern professional sports context, that's pretty much peanuts. Metaphorically speaking, MLB organizations have that much laying around between the cushions of their couch.

And, sadly, in this instance it represents a missed opportunity, as $3.5M is the difference between Ramon Hernandez's new $2M salary and the 2010 salary of Curtis Granderson ($5.5M). This meager difference in salary between the two is simply not reflective of the massive difference in ability and production.

Hernandez's new deal is listed at $3M for 2010 and a $3.25M vesting option for 2011. However, the $3M 2010 salary includes the $1M buyout of the $8.5M club option for 2010 from his last contract. So, $1M of it was a sunk cost and $2M is the actual salary for 2010.

The Reds have been crying poverty and doing everything they can to reduce fan expectations for this offseason. Even so, it's impossible to believe that the organization can't scrape together enough cash to make this move.

First, let's address the elephant in the room: the Scott Rolen trade. I am on record as being in favor of this deal. And, I still like it. In 2009, the Reds thirdbase troika of Edwin Encarnacion (2009 Wins Above Replacement: 0.0), Adam Rosales (2009 WAR: -0.1), and Jerry Hairston Jr. (2009 WAR: 1.0) provided essentially replacement level production.

This is just a rough and dirty look at their win impact, but it's a generally accurate view of their impact on the team's W/L total. I didn't break out the WAR figure to account for solely performance at the hot corner, so Hairston Jr.'s WAR is inflated by the time he spent at more valuable defensive positions. So, the Reds truly did receive replacement level production at third base.

So, the acquisition of Scott Rolen has the potential to have a significant impact on the Reds W/L record. In 2009, Rolen posted a 3.8 WAR for the Jays and Reds. If Rolen can stay healthy (yes, perhaps a big "IF"), then he could be in line to improve the Reds by 4+ wins. He should get the requisite bump from switching to Great American Ballpark, so the trade that everyone panned could improve the Reds significantly in 2010.

However, the latest news on the deal is that the Reds are on the hook for all of Rolen's 2010 salary. Of course, Rolen is set to make $11M in 2010, while Edwin is making $4.75M. So, without any money coming from the Great White North to cover the cost of Rolen's salary, the Reds increased their payroll by $6.25M with this deal. And, to be honest, it may well be worth it. Even so, if the Reds entered into that deal in the knowledge that they wouldn't be able to add salary to improve the team over the offseason, then it becomes a little less defensible. In a vacuum, it's a solid deal, but the Reds need to bite the bullet and make another move to improve the 2010 team.

Personally, I think it's a huge mistake not to aggressively pursue Curtis Granderson. The Tigers are widely reported to be looking to shave payroll, as Detroit is being hit hard by the recession. Obviously, in exchange for their veteran players the Tigers are looking for young, cost controlled players/prospects. And, what do the Reds have in surplus? Prospects!

I'd offer up Yonder Alonso and one of Juan Francisco/Chris Valaika/Chris Heisey. Is there any doubt that Granderson would provide more total value (offense + defense) than shifting Votto to left to accommodate Yonder at first?

Granderson is a plus defensive player who would be in the discussion for best defensive leftfielder in baseball. And, while he struggles with southpaws, Granderson has a great blend of power and speed. He also draws a significant number of walks and would immediately solve the Reds leadoff hitter dilemma. His addition would give the Reds three top notch lefties (Granderson, Votto, Bruce) to go with three top notch righties (Phillips, Rolen, Stubbs).

In Detroit he has produced WAR marks of 3.9, 7.4, 3.8, and 3.4 from 2006 to 2009. While he had a bit of down year last year, Granderson would get a boost from GABP. In addition, he's a "face of the franchise" type player who is a leader in the clubhouse and the community.

The Scott Rolen trade is solid in a vacuum, but it looks better if the Reds pair it with the acquisition of another 4-5 win player. If the Reds do that, then they could be looking at significant improvement. If the Reds were to get aggressive, then maybe a 78 win team in 2009 becomes an 85-88 win team in 2010.

The Reds need to have the foresight to position themselves to take advantage of the market. The nation wide recession has created significant bargains around the league, but only those teams who have positioned themselves to take advantage of them will benefit. If the Reds can afford to throw $2M at Ramon Hernandez, then they could have afforded to pay Curtis Granderson $3.5M more to play for the Reds. I don't think there is any question which player will provide more value and wins in 2010.

This is the type of move the Reds should be looking to make. Adding a young player who is under contract through 2013 and who can help the team win...now!

2009 Top 25 Reds Prospects and Review

Time to clean up the blog to get ready for the 2010 prospect list.

Alonso didn't set the world on fire, but he did enough to justify the #1 slot. Soto struggled against more advanced competition in a tough park for hitters. Stubbs and Frazier continued their steady progression up the ladder, while injuries derailed Lotzkar, Thompson, and Buck.

Two personal favorites (Ravin and Oliveras) took the steps forward that I wanted to see, while two others (Dorn and Dickerson) didn't exactly live up to expectations. Chris Heisey enjoyed a breakout season, flashing a well-rounded game that could see emerge at the big league level as an every day player, rather than a mere 4th outfielder.

One of the uber-prospects signed during the international free agency period thrived, while the other struggled. And, in something of a make or break year, Travis Wood broke through in a big way.

Overall, it was a rather interesting year down on the farm, but there was a great deal of turnover resulting from trades, injuries, and promotions to the majors. So, the 2010 list will welcome a significant number of new prospects into the fold.

Anyway, here is one last look at the 2009 list before turning the page to 2010.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1b
2. Neftali Soto, inf
3. Todd Frazier, inf/of
4. Drew Stubbs, cf
5. Chris Valaika, inf
6. Chris Dickerson, cf
7. Devin Mesoraco, c
8. Danny Dorn, 1b/lf
9. Juan Francisco, 3b
10. Kyle Lotzkar, rhp

11. Daryl Thompson, rhp
12. Dallas Buck, rhp
13. Josh Roenicke, rhp
14. Matt Maloney, lhp
15. Zach Stewart, rhp
16. Alex Buchholz, inf
17. Yorman Rodriguez, of
18. Juan Duran, of
19. Travis Wood, lhp
20. Zach Cozart, ss

21. Pedro Viola, lhp
22. Carlos Fisher, rhp
23. Adam Rosales, inf
24. Josh Ravin, rhp
25. Alexis Oliveras, of

xx) Other Notables

First Item on the Offseason "To Do" List

With the World Series in the books, the Hot Stove is beginning to heat up.

After the Scott Rolen trade, the Reds may have used up any payroll flexibility they had for the 2010 season. In addition, the recession hasn't spared the Reds, as attendance fell from 2,058,632 in 2008 all the way down to 1,747,919 in 2009. That's a decrease of 310,713 tickets sold from 2008 to 2009. In 2008, the average ticket price for a Reds game was $19.41 and the organization decided to hold ticket prices steady for 2009. So, just for a rough estimate, the Reds saw their revenue decline by $6,030,939.33 ($19.41 x 310,713).

Obviously, the Reds will face fiscal constraints that other organizations will not. That leaves the Reds to sift through the bargain bin while other organizations kick the tires on the elite talent. While bargain bin shopping may not be as exciting, it's certainly much more interesting.

Given the fiscal constraints, the Reds will likely be targeting only undervalued players with upside. If that's the case, the first name on the list should be former Giant Noah Lowry. If southpaw Lowry is 100% healthy, then he could be the steal of the offseason.

Here is a blurb from the San Francisco Chronicle about his impending departure from the Giants organization:

"Noah Lowry, who last pitched in 2007, will become a free agent today when he is removed from the 40-man roster, not surprising given his arm saga and hard feelings over his care.

Lowry's agent, Damon Lapa, said he was informed of that by the Giants today and added in an e-mail, "Noah is completely healthy throwing three days a week on his normal offseason program without any restrictions. Lowry will be removed from the Giants' 40-man roster and become a free agent."

It was a given that his $6.25 million option for 2010 wouldn't be picked up. Lowry has missed the last two seasons because of elbow/forearm issues that he believes the Giants misdiasgnosed. He was 14-8 with a 3.92 ERA in his last healthy season in 2007."

Lowry is an intriguing pitcher. He's a power pitcher without the power stuff. His fastball only sits around 87-88 mph, but he his best pitch is a plus-plus change-up. Even without a dominating fastball, Lowry is fearless. He attacks hitters with the velocity differential between his fastball and change-up. He also utilizes both a curveball and a slider. His bulldog demeanor on the mound has allowed him to be truly dominant over significant stretches of time despite not having dominating power stuff.

From 2003-2005, Lowry averaged ~7 K/9 and ~3 BB/9. In July 2005, Lowry posted a 3.58 ERA and a 39/14 K/BB ratio in 37.2 innings. Not bad, but in August of 2005 Lowry blew the doors off everyone. He posted a 0.69 ERA with a 33/9 K/BB ratio in 39.1 innings.

A funny thing happened in 2006 and 2007. Lowry's strikeout rate began decreasing while his groundball rate began to increase. I suspect that it was the result of his forearm struggles, but at this point it would difficult to know for sure what type of pitcher Lowry will be upon his return to the show. So, there is a degree of risk, but that's why he comes at such a reduced cost.

The Reds could use another solid starter in the rotation, especially one who throws from the left side. Lowry wouldn't have to bounce back too far to be an asset at the back end of the rotation and he could bounce back much farther than the 5th spot.

I've always liked Lowry's game and if he finally is 100% healthy, then he could be a very nice addition to the team. At the very least, the price is likely to be right, as he will have little bargaining power and, regardless, is likely to value an opportunity to start at the big league level over maximizing his 2010 salary. A low base salary with some built-in incentives might be enough to get it done.

Goodbye Sarasota, Hello Lynchburg...

Baseball America via John Fay breaking the news that the Reds are close to moving their high-A team to Lynchburg, breaking the final ties with Sarasota.

Reds to Sell Sarasota Affiliate to Pirates

Posted Oct. 28, 2009 9:57 pm by Josh Leventhal
Filed under: Business Beat, Major League Business, Minor League Business

The Pirates are in the process of purchasing the Reds’ high Class A Sarasota affiliate and relocating it to their spring training complex in Bradenton for the 2010 season, a pair of sources confirmed on Wednesday. The Reds’ high A affiliate would play next year in Lynchburg, which has hosted the Pirates since 1995.

Baseball America correspondent, and Cincinnati Enquirer Reds beat writer, John Fay first reported the deal on his Reds Insider blog.

The two organizations would essentially swap player-development contracts in 2010, a provision that is in the PBA and simply requires all four teams to approve the deal. Such an approval would essentially come down to Lynchburg, since the Reds own the Sarasota affiliate. (The Red Sox and Astros pulled off a similar swap in 1999. Boston swapped its low Class A Battle Creek affiliate for the Astros’ affiliate in Augusta.)

The Reds reasoning for the sale seems to be simple. They will debut their new spring training complex in Goodyear, Ariz., in 2010, and thus no longer have a need for a team in the Florida State League. Whether they seek to relocate out West to the California League after their affiliation with Lynchburg expires after next season remains to be seen.

It would seem that the Reds best opportunities in the Cal League would be in Bakersfield (Rangers) and High Desert (Mariners), a pair of clubs looking to relocate to new homes since their local municipalities have declined to upgrade aging ballparks. Lake Elsinore (Padres), Lancaster (Astros) and Stockton (Athletics) are each locked into PDCs through the 2012 season. The Giants have an ownership stake in San Jose and the Angels and Rancho Cucamonga are a geographical match and have been affiliated since 2001, negating any possibility of the Reds moving there. That leaves Inland Empire (Dodgers), Modesto (Rockies) and Visalia (Diamondbacks) with PDCs expiring after the 2010 season.

Completion of the Sarasota sale is pending approval of the Florida State League, Minor League Baseball and Major League Baseball. Both the National Association and the FSL have received the necessary paperwork.

Both sources are confident that the Pirates’ McKechnie Field in Bradenton will be up to Minor League Baseball standards, essentially noting that if it is good enough for spring training it will likely meet PBA facility standards. In addition, the Pirates recently installed lights at the ballpark. However, part of the approval process is to provide MILB an opportunity to inspect the ballpark, one source said.

Quick Look Around the Winter Leagues

Time to take a quick spin around the winter leagues and check in on some of our prospects.


Danny Dorn

Grabbing the headlines today was Danny Dorn, who ripped 3 homeruns and drove in 6 runs for Caribes de Anzoategui of the Venezuelan Winter League. He now has a slash line of .293/.408/.610/1.018 with an 8/5 K/BB ratio. I still love Dorn's swing and his approach at the plate, but sadly he may never get a legitimate look at the MLB level with the Reds. It's unfortunate that he got off to such a slow start last year, as there was an opportunity for playing time in the Reds outfield. Professional sports careers are frequently determined by timing. For the superstars, timing really doesn't matter, as they'll push their way to the majors. They have the ability to make their own opportunity. However, for the fringe players or even the potential solid regulars, it often comes down to opportunity and timing. The window can close in a hurry and never open again. Over the course of MLB history, how many All Star caliber players have withered on the vine for want of an opportunity? I would imagine more than a few. Unfortunately, last season may have been both the opening and closing of Dorn's window into the Reds organization. Ultimately, I think he'll get a shot at the MLB level, but it will probably be with another organization.


Yonder Alonso

Yonder Alonso continues to struggle in the Arizona Fall League for the Peoria Saguaros. In 36 ABs, Yonder is hitting a paltry .222/.262/.389 and frankly it couldn't matter less. At this point, Yonder just needs more playing time to recover from the hamate bone injury and regain his timing and confidence. He's getting the swings he needs, which is what's truly important, regardless of what he does with them.


Chris Heisey

At the opposite end of the spectrum you have Chris Heisey, who simply continues to pound the ball. He's hitting a robust .396/.473/.771/1.244. He's certainly turning heads and earning more and more respect, but you have to wonder if that's a good thing. Heisey has thrived on proving people wrong and maybe he needs the extra motivation that a chip-on-the-shoulder provides. His constant need to push back against the weight of low expectations has elevated him above Danny Dorn and others.


Juan Francisco

Juan Francisco hasn't carried over his 2009 level of performance into the winter leagues. He is currently scuffling along at .185/.290/.296/.587, so maybe he's tired after a long season. He actually has 4 walks on the season, but the small sample eliminates any importance that might be placed on that walk rate. I still remain deeply concerned about his approach at the plate and his strikeout rate. Still, he's the type of player the Dusty covets, so he will likely play a significant role in Cincy in 2010.


Mike Leake

Finally, on to the newbies in the organization. Mike Leake is pitching for Peoria Saguaros in his professional debut. So far, his performance has been uneven, but traditionally the Arizona Fall League tilts heavily in favor of hitters. In 3 starts, Leake has worked 8.2 innings with a 1.04 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and a 6/2 K/BB rate. The ERA is strong, but not supported by his peripherals. He has given up 13 hits in only 8.2 innings and his K/9 rate of 6.3 leaves a bit to be desired. Again, small sample size and a tough environment, so no conclusions to be drawn until 2010.


Brad Boxberger

Brad Boxberger has worked 6.0 innings for the Saguaros in 3 two inning relief appearances. In his 6.0 innings, Boxberger has a 7/1 K/BB ratio and a 1.75 GB/FB, but a 6.00 ERA. His peripherals are stronger than Leake and his performance so far has been encouraging.


Overall, some interesting and encouraging performances around the Winter Leagues. No definitive conclusions to be drawn, but perhaps a bit of additional support for those already drawn.

Best Free Agent Options for 2010

The World Series is around the corner and not long after that the Hot Stove fires up and free agency begins. Of course, Reds fans will likely have to once again live vicariously through fans of high revenue clubs, but we can still pick through the bargain bin in hopes of finding good value.

In that spirit, here's a quick look at a few players who might be of use to the club and who might actually consider hanging their hat in the Queen City. First, we need to identify both the areas of need and the constraints operating on the front office this offseason.


25 Man Roster Holes

First, the areas in obvious need of improvement. The following is set in stone:

1b Joey Votto
2b Brandon Phillips
3b Scott Rolen
cf Drew Stubbs
rf Jay Bruce

So, as to the every day position players, the Reds can likely only improve at catcher, shortstop, and leftfield. Even leftfield may be secure in the hands of Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, and/or Chris Heisey.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation is pretty well set:

1) Aaron Harang
2) Bronson Arroyo
3) Johnny Cueto
4) Homer Bailey

In theory, they could use another starting pitcher, but not a top of the rotation starter unless they flip the contract of either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo.

And, the bullpen is in pretty good shape with respect to high leverage innings:

CL) Francisco Cordero
SU) Art Rhodes
SU) Nick Masset


Front Office Constraints

Obviously, the Reds have some constraints. There is still some uncertainty about how much of Scott Rolen's salary the Reds must pay in 2010, but it's likely to be substantial enough to prevent the Reds from being big players in the free agent market. I'd love to target the likes of Tim Hudson and Ben Sheets, but those guys are likely out of our price range.

As per usual, the small revenue teams are left to target the players with flaws. Flaws aren't such a bad thing, as they are what reduces the value of players to the point that small revenue clubs can afford them. The trick is to pick the flaws that best fit the organization.


Justin Duchscherer

Duchscherer is an intriguing pitcher. He spent several years dominating in the Oakland bullpen before being shifted into the starting rotation for the 2008 season. I was skeptical about his ability to succeed in the rotation, but he thrived.

The Duke doesn't throw hard, but he features a varied five pitch arsenal including a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, and change-up. His fastball velocity is below average, but his curveball is a definite plus pitch and his command/control allow his stuff to play up a notch.

In 2008, his 2.79 BB/9 and 6.04 K/9 rates helped him post a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Of course, he also benefited from a stellar Oakland defense and a pitcher friendly ballpark, but he's a solid pitcher who understand how to succeed with less than elite stuff.

The Duke's form of risk comes in injury and depression, with the latter seemingly a larger concern than the former. He missed the first half of 2009 recovering from an arm injury, but opted to shut it down in the second half due to problems with depression. He wanted to focus on treating his depression rather than come back to pitch for a month or two. At this point, he should be 100% healthy from a physical standpoint to start 2010, but depression isn't likely to be as easy to "cure." Even so, he strikes me as being a good risk, good reward type player. In this case, the A's surplus of young pitching talent makes Duchscherer expendable and the A's loss could be the Reds gain.


Jason Varitek

As much as I liked what I saw out of Ryan Hanigan, I am just not willing to buy into him as a full-time starter as of yet.

Despite his age driven decline, 'Tek is still the most widely respected catcher in the game. In addition to adding leadership to roster, Varitek could also add solid production and good game calling skills to a team that would benefit from both. He could be a calming influence on the young pitchers and boost the level of respect the Reds are accorded around the league.

Varitek finished out the 2009 season with a line of .209/.313/.390/.703, but he hit .236/.345/.453 in the first four months before the arrival of Victor Martinez cut into his playing time. Also cutting in his favor is the fact that he currently resides in baseball's toughest division and would get the usual bump from coming to Great American Ballpark.

The risk with Varitek comes in the form of performance decline due to age and also throwing problems. Varitek doesn't nail basestealers at a very good clip these days, but that's far from the worst flaw a catcher can have. Add in the cannon arm of Ryan Hanigan and they could make a nice duo: the switch hitting veteran Jason Varitek and the younger righthanded hitting Hanigan.

The Red Sox are committed to Victor Martinez behind the dish for 2010, so Varitek may be looking for more playing time in another organization. That organization could be the Reds. He may not have much left in the tank, but it could be enough for one or two more solid seasons, especially with the help of Great American Ballpark.


Rocco Baldelli

Baldelli has always been an intriguing talent, but he continues to deal with mitochondrial myopathy. As he learns to manage his health effectively to allow him to contribute at the MLB level, he may be at the point where he is looking for a larger role than the Red Sox will afford him.

In 2009, Baldelli hit .255/.313/.453 with 7 homeruns. Respectable production in limited time and in a difficult home ballpark. Obviously, the OBP leaves something to be desired, but he could be an attractive player for a platoon situation with Chris Dickerson (as each may still need to prove worthy of a fulltime job) or a larger role if his condition allows for it. He would get a significant boost in production from GABP and could really put up solid numbers if his condition allows it.

He remains a risk, but he still has the intriguing upside and sweet righthanded swing that made him a first round draft pick.

Final Thoughts

At this point, the Reds are likely going to stand pat rather than pursue anyone in free agency, but there are a few players out there who might make sense and could make a difference. At the very least, the downturn in the economy should increase the number of bargains in the free agent market.

2010 First Round Draft Order

The order for the first round:

1. Nationals (59-103)	17. Rays (84-78)
2. Pirates (62-99)	18. Mariners (85-77)
3. Orioles (64-98)	19. Tigers/Twins loser (86-77)
4. Royals (65-97)	20. Braves (86-76)
5. Indians (65-97)	21. Tigers/Twins winner (87-76)
6. Diamondbacks (70-92)	22. Rangers (87-75)
7. Mets (70-92)	23. Marlins (87-75)
8. Astros (74-88)	24. Giants (88-74)
9. Padres (75-87)	25. Cardinals (91-71)
10. Athletics (75-87)	26. Rockies (92-70)
11. Blue Jays (75-87)	27. Phillies (93-69)
12. Reds (78-84)	28. Dodgers (95-67)
13. White Sox (79-83)	29. Red Sox (95-67)
14. Brewers (80-82)	30. Angels (97-65)
15. Rangers (for failure to sign Matt Purke)	31. Rays (for failure to sign LeVon Washington)
16. Cubs (83-78)	32. Yankees (103-59)

3 Up, 3 Down: Minor League Edition

Time to take a quick spin around the system to see who took the biggest steps forward and backward during the 2009 season.

3 Up...

1. Travis Wood

No one in the system had more helium this year than Travis Wood. He already had the best change-up in the system, but when he scrapped his curveball in favor of a cut-fastball his performance went to the next level. Even the word "dominant" doesn't seem to do justice to Wood's double-A performance. In 119 innings he posted an epically low 1.21 ERA. At triple-A, his performance wasn't quite as strong, but he still acquitted himself nicely.

While there has been talk of Wood challenging for a rotation spot right out of spring training, he would likely benefit from the Reds conservative development philosophy. Sending him back to triple-A to gain more experience against advanced hitters and ensuring that he can repeat his success is what is in the best interests of the organization.

Wood stepped up at the right time and provided another potential impact pitcher in a system in need of them. His emergence also alleviates some of the pain generated by the departure of Zach Stewart.

2009 was a make or break year for Wood and he made the most of the opportunity. He is definitely the biggest mover up the prospect ranks.


2. Chris Heisey

Heisey was the second biggest mover in the system in 2009. He exploded at double-A Carolina, posting a slash line of .347/.426/.572/.998 and slugging over .500 for the first time in his career. Heisey also posted the best K/BB ratio of his career at double-A, walking as many times as he struck out (34/34).

Heisey didn't fare as well as Wood upon his promotion to triple-A, as his performance fell off the table. His K/BB ratio fell to 43/14 and his slash line to .278/.323/.465/.789.

Prior to the 2009 season, I had Heisey pegged as a likely fourth outfielder type. He struck me more as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type player whose age worked against him.

At this point, I'm not entirely sure what to make of him. Was it a true breakout season? Or was there just something in the water at double-A Carolina this year?

Despite Heisey's breakthrough season, part of me still pegs him as a 4th outfielder type. However, it's difficult to overlook his defensive ability, which may be his ticket to a starting job at the MLB level. If his glove were to relegate him to a corner slot, then his offensive game might not be enough to earn him consideration for a starting job.

It remains to be seen whether Heisey has a future as a starter or even in the Reds organization, but he certainly has redefined his prospect status heading into 2010.

3. Alexis Oliveras/Josh Ravin

No one else leaps easily to mind, so I'll go with two personal favorites in this slot. While neither was an unqualified success in 2009, both took steps forward.

Oliveras was coming off of two consecutive seasons in the Gulf Coast League and needed to show that he could handle more advanced competition. He hit a respectable .270/.326/.352/.678 for the Billings Mustangs and was subsequently promoted. The promotion was part of the chain of events that resulted from the promotion of Yorman Rodriguez. When the move was announced, I had my doubts that Oliveras was ready or actually earned it. Still, he quickly proved up to the task, hitting .307/.317/.443/.760 for low-A Dayton. The obvious question on Oliveras is whether he'll hit for enough power or develop enough on-base ability to become an impact prospect. The jury is still out.

As for Ravin, he finally took a step forward in 2009. In 81.0 innings for low-A Dayton, Ravin posted a stellar 3.67 ERA to go along with a 7.3 K/9 and a much improved 4.4 BB/9 mark. He was really having a fine season and showing marked improvement with his command and control when he was derailed by elbow soreness. It was a much needed positive step for Ravin who reestablished his prospect status, but one that could have been significantly better if he had managed to avoid injury. Still, he could be in line for a breakout 2010 season.

3 Down...

1. Chris Valaika

It was a disastrous season for Valaika in all respects. He has always been an aggressive, early count hitter, but his K/BB ratio fell to 76/16 and his slash line down to .235/.271/.344. He rebounded a bit in August, but his prospect status undoubtedly took a hit in 2009.

There is now a cloud of uncertainty hanging over his offensive game, which when added to his positional uncertainty makes 2010 a huge season for Valaika.


2. Neftali Soto

Soto experienced his first taste of adversity at the professional level in 2009. After consecutive impressive seasons in 2007 and 2008, Soto simply didn't produce at high-A Sarasota, posting a pedestrian slash line of .248/.281/.362/.643. His walk rate actually improved over his performance at Dayton. In addition, his line drive rate was a stellar 23%, which likely means his BABIP of .286 was too low and rather unlucky.

Personally, I don't view his struggles in 2009 as indicative of future performance. I see it as a young player facing more advancing pitching in a very tough environment for hitters. Soto still has the sweet swing, the impressive hand-eye coordination enabling him to make consistent hard contact and square up the ball, and the substantial raw power to be a big time hitting prospect.

I expect better things in 2010, even if the Reds send him right back to Sarasota.


3. Daryl Thompson

Thompson may have completely sunk his prospect status in 2009. After a strong 2008 in which he managed to reach the majors, Thompson struggled with performance and injury issues in 2009. Given his unorthodox, very funky mechanics and max effort pitching style, his injury problems shouldn't be a surprise.

Still, if he can't demonstrate greater durability, then he'll likely never receive much of an opportunity at the MLB level. He's still young enough to carve out an MLB career, but he needs to get back on track in 2010.

Jocketty on Pitching Coach...

John Fay had a discussion with Walt Jocketty about the pitching coach vacancy and here is what he had to say:

Walt Jocketty said there’s a chance the Reds could name a pitching coach before the postseason ends.

“To be honest, I’d like to have done before that,” he said. “But we haven’t finalized the list yet.”

My guess is the Reds wait until the St. Louis Cardinals are elimianted. Dave Duncan, the St. Louis pitching coach, is involved in the postseason. Duncan has expressed his unhappiness with his situation with the Cardinals. He and Jocketty worked together during Jocketty’s time in St. Louis.

The hiring process will pick up when the Reds brass meets in Goodyear next week.

“We’ve talk to a few people,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “I’ll meet with Dusty (Baker) and the coaches next week.”

Ted Power, the pitching coach for Triple-A Louisville, has expressed his interest in the job. Special assistant Mario Soto has not.

“I haven’t talked to Mario,” Jocketty said. “I’ll see him in Arizona.”

Jocketty said the list of candidates will be in the four-to-five range.

The buzz was and continues to be that Jocketty is going to bring in his former employee Dave Duncan. Honestly, I have mixed feelings about it. I can certainly see the appeal of Duncan, but I also wonder if he's a good fit for our young pitchers.

To me, the obvious bedrock of the Dave Duncan pitching philosophy is the groundball. In his time in St. Louis, Duncan has really emphasized the 2-seam fastball and working down in the zone. For example, he has had good success with Joel Piniero this season, because he has turned him into "heavy groundball, no walk" style pitcher. Obviously, getting anything of value out of Joel Piniero is impressive, but there is one disturbing incident that could be a red flag for the Reds.

During his time with the Cardinals, Duncan continually locked horns with young pitcher Anthony Reyes. Duncan wanted him to become a groundball style pitcher, while Reyes preferred to stick to the 4-seamer and working up in the zone, which is the style that brought him so much success in the minors. Ultimately, Reyes needed a change of scenery to get a legitimate shot in the starting rotation at the MLB level.

This incident is of note because the Reds don't have a single starting pitcher who gets more groundballs than flyballs. Not one. Not Bailey, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, or Edinson. Obviously, Great American Ballpark is ideally suited for ground ball pitching, but I have to wonder if Duncan would try to transform our young pitchers into something they aren't.

If Duncan is willing to work with what he has to maximize their performance, then we would be fine. If, however, he tries to force ground ball tendencies on young pitchers who don't utilize that approach, then it could be problematic. Whoever will be hired will have to adapt to the talent on the roster, not force the talent to adapt to him.

Ultimately, Dave Duncan has the talent and wisdom to make it work wherever he goes, but I just hope he would be willing to be flexible with his ground ball philosophy until he has pitchers who can actually implement and execute that approach.

Big Ben, Leo, and Organizational Intelligence

One of the comments on my last post got me thinking more about the Reds pitching coach vacancy and why Leo Mazzone is truly the best option.

The Herd, Tony, and Big Ben

I was listening to Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio and he made an interesting comparison between Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. This will likely be the only time football gets a mention on this blog, but the underlying concept is intriguing and would seem to have parallels to baseball.

If you have any exposure to ESPN or sports talk radio, you know that Tony Romo is constantly raked over the coals, while Big Ben is continually lionized. However, Cowherd posited that if you were to switch the two quarterbacks, then their respective levels of success would switch as well, and not because of the different personnel. He suggested that the differing levels of success experienced by Romo and Roethlisberger were the result of organizational structure.

The Cowboys are an undisciplined, flamboyant, star oriented organization, while the Steelers are very structured, disciplined, and team oriented. In the Cowboy system, Romo feels the need to do it all by himself when the game is on the line, whereas the Steelers have established a team-first style that doesn't require Big Ben to try to do too much. The respective organizational structures enable one quarterback to excel, while causing the other to fail.

Baseball Implications and Leo Mazzone

To a certain extent, I think this is true in baseball as well. If you look at the best organizations, then you notice that everything just seems easier for them. The players they draft tend to be good values. The players they develop tend to develop faster and fit easily into the MLB lineup. The free agents they acquire tend to fill defined roles that put them in a position to succeed. Everything just works.

The reason why it "just works" for the best organizations is that they have consistently put talented people into management and coaching positions. They have had such elite talent in these positions for so long that they begin to change the culture of the organization. The players begin to buy into the program, which only serves to reinforce it in the clubhouse and with the newly acquired players. The talented coaches and front offices personnel imprint the organization with their knowledge and ability. Over the years, the impression on the organization gets deeper and deeper as their influence gets greater and greater. The impression gets so deep that it begins to channel talent much more efficiently to the Major League level, which is a significant advantage over other organizations. The value of efficiency in the organization cannot be overstated.

The structure of the organization is a key to any kind of long-term success. Once the structure is in place it creates a kind of organizational intelligence. At that point, you could even remove an individual component and the structure would still be intact, at least for a few years. There is inertia to the organizational quality that would take significant time to alter.

In short, everything just seems to be ~10% easier for these organizations, because they have built up this structure and organizational intelligence. It gets to the point where it becomes less about the particular players, because so many players work within the structure. It becomes easier to acquire talent and part ways with that talent when it is advantageous to do so. For teams that struggle to overcome a faulty organizational structure in acquiring talent, it is more difficult to part ways with that talent. In fact, they may hang onto that talent for too long because they fear they will struggle to replace it.

Imprinting the organization with an intelligent, effective structure is key. In essence, it's the difference between swimming with the current and swimming against it. The Reds have a chance to hire a mere pitching coach or a Hall of Fame caliber talent who can define the pitching philosophy for the entire organization. Hiring a coach like Leo Mazzone would help create a bit of organizational structure that has been lacking in Cincinnati for quite some time.

If the Reds are serious about building a winning organization, then they'll start getting serious about the people they are placing in the coaching and management positions. In professional sports organizations, success truly flows from the top down. For the Reds, a nice place to start would be hiring Leo Mazzone, which would not only begin the process of establishing an organizational structure, but also signal to all of baseball that the Reds are serious about becoming an elite, first class organization.

Opportunity Knocks: New Pitching Coach on the Horizon

John Fay breaks some interesting news today: the Reds are parting ways with pitching coach Dick Pole.

The Reds renewed the contracts of every coach except pitching coach Dick Pole. The Reds will look at internal candidates. My guess is Ted Power and Mario Soto will be interviewed.

There’s also a chance that St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan will become available. That would be an interesting first meeting with Bronson Arroyo. Duncan was recently quoted about how much more input he had when Walt Jocketty was GM in St. Louis.

Pole left the park after being told of the decision by Dusty Baker.

Third base coach Mark Berry, first base coach Billy Hatcher, hitting coach Brook Jacoby, bullpen coach Juan Lopez, bench coach Chris Speier and bullpen catcher Mike Stefanski will return in their same roles.

Jocketty on the firing:

“I think it was just as an organization we felt Dick has done a good job to this point. But we felt going forward things needed to change. There’s no real specific reason.

“We don’t have a clear candidate. We’ll formulate the list. Find the guy that will be with this organization for a long time. We’ve got some good young pitchers coming along. We wanted to make sure we find the right guy to develop them.

“We’ll look at some guys internally. We’ve got a couple guys in mind.”

“It’s tough going into the last day.”

Baker on the firing:

“I told Dick when I got here today. Naturally, he was hurt. It was very difficult for me to tell him because you know how close me and him are. I’d be the one to tell him. Like Walt said it was a tough decision, an organizational decision. Don’t want to get into specifics. I don’t think that would serve any point.”

“It’s not fair to anybody to air anything publicly.”

Dusty and Dick

The first thing that strikes me about this article is the role of Dusty Baker. It's interesting to note that this move was made against Dusty's will. There have been questions about just how much influence Dusty wields in the organization. The questions were inevitable given the fact that Paul Bako, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Corey Patterson were all acquired during Dusty's tenure. Such acquisitions almost certainly bore the fingerprints of one Dusty Baker, who said he liked to have "options."

More recently, there was the acquisition of Willy Taveras. It's unclear where the responsibility for that particular acquisition should lie, but at the very least it has the feel of Dusty to it.

At the very least, it seems likely that Dusty and Walt Jocketty worked in lock step. Dusty had some measure of influence on the front office.

However, it's obvious from his quotes that Dusty was opposed to replacing his friend Dick Pole. Of Dusty's many personality traits, his unfailing loyalty to "his guys" may be the defining characteristic.

Dusty's loyalty hasn't changed, but his pull with the front office may have. That certainly wouldn't be a bad thing for Reds fans.

Now What?

Now that the Reds have parted ways with Dick Pole, who will be the replacement?

This is an opportunity for the Reds to make some serious noise. To really make a splash and regain some relevance in the baseball world. If they make the right choice, the Reds could really "move the needle." Over the last decade or two, the Reds have slipped into irrelevance. They are largely dismissed by the mainstream media and the baseball community at large. The only time the Reds have "moved the needle" in recent memory was the acquisition of Josh Hamilton. This is another opportunity to "move the needle," though admittedly on a smaller scale.

There are two elite options potentially available to fill the position. The Reds could turn to Hall of Fame pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who stands shoulder to shoulder with mentor Johnny Sain as the best pitching coach in history. Odd as it seems, Mazzone has expressed interest in returning to the game, but hasn't found much interest in his services. Still, what better way for the Reds to foster its homegrown pitching talent than to bring in The Pope of Pitching?

Mazzone combines the talent and the publicity that the Reds should covet. He would improve the performance of the Reds pitchers and give the entire organization a big dose of credibility. He should be at the very top of the list...scratch that....he should BE the list..... and would have more impact than any potential free agent.

The other possible option floating around is current St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Duncan has expressed dissatisfaction with the Cardinals organization and has a long history with Walt Jocketty. Duncan has worked miracles for the Cardinals and his philosophy of emphasizing the sinker would play well in Great American Ballpark.

The best in-house option appears to be Ted Power. He's done a nice job with the young pitchers on the farm, but he may be more valuable shaping young prospects than fine tuning established pitchers at the MLB level.

Final Thoughts

The Reds have a real opportunity to improve the team, but they have to choose wisely. Picking the right pitching coach could both help get Aaron Harang back on track and the pitching prospects take a step forward. Adding the right pitching coach to the addition of Scott Rolen could significantly improve the Reds run prevention in 2010.

Personally, I think it's absurd that they aren't calling up Leo Mazzone and offering him a blank check to come to Cincinnati. Sadly, it's probably a real long-shot at this point, but it's also a no-brainer. He could really alter the fortunes of the organization like no other manager/coach in all of baseball. Leo certainly has my vote...which, of course, means it won't happen.

The Key to 2010: Yonder Looms Large

Well, we are at that all too familiar point in the season. The point at which Reds fans reflect on everything that went wrong during the season and try to figure out what what needs to be done to contend in the following season. This post will focus on the latter, but posts will undoubtedly return to the former in the not too distant future.

After a disappointing season, the pundits have turned on the Reds. After being hailed as the darkhorse in the NL earlier this year by many in the media, they are now being buried just a few months later. It's a bit surprising that there is such a massive swing in media opinion. Ideally, they would take the time to form an objective opinion about the health of the organization, rather than being so swayed by the 2009 W/L record.

Personally, I think it's difficult to look at what the Reds have done as of late and not see an improved squad. You can certainly argue that the Reds overpaid for Scott Rolen, but you can't argue that he's not an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion. The emergence of Drew Stubbs in centerfield represents a clear upgrade over Willy Taveras. At the bare minimum, Stubbs and Rolen represent a significant upgrade in run prevention, but both are also likely to be substantial upgrades on offense. Add in a healthy and improved Jay Bruce and a potential big step forward for Homer Bailey and the Reds could be a solid team in 2010.

Still, to me, the biggest determining factor to the success of the Reds next year will be what they do with Yonder Alonso.

Extracting Value from Yonder Alonso

Yonder Alonso is currently the biggest chip the Reds possess, but they need to figure out how to maximize the value of that particular asset. The ability to extract the most value from Yonder Alonso may well determine the organization's success in 2010.

The purpose of an MLB farm system is to support the success of the Major League team. There are two ways for an organization to use its farm system to support the MLB team. A perfect example of the differing ways to utilize prospects are the Oakland A's and the San Francisco Giants over the past decade.

The Oakland A's have focused on developing prospects and making use of them at the big league level. They extract the value of the first 6 years of cost-controlled production from their prospects and then deal them when they get expensive for more young prospects.

The San Francisco Giants took the opposite approach. They traded away prospect after prospect to acquire establish veterans to round out the roster around Barry Bonds. The Giants wanted to win while Bonds was still on the team and their philosophy removed the inherent risk of prospects and allowed them to acquire players who were already past the growing pains stage of their MLB careers. Since Bonds has retired and the Giants have suffered through some lean years, they have switched their focus to developing homegrown talent.

Judging by their success, each strategy has merit. Judging by their struggles, each strategy has flaws. Obviously, a blended approach is best.

The general sentiment in the Reds nation seems to be keeping Yonder Alonso and shifting Joey Votto to left. Personally, I'd rather seem them trade Yonder for a player that better suits their needs.

Player Value

A few years ago the Atlanta Braves promoted Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the majors and were left with a catching conundrum. They already had Brian McCann entrenched behind the dish, but Saltalamacchia was one of the more promising young prospects in the game. Still, there wasn't room for both behind the plate. There was talk of shifting Salty to first base, but the Braves elected to deal him to the Rangers instead. The Braves were smart enough to recognize that Salty's value was largely tied to being a catcher, which made his trade value higher to his actual value. In short, his value as a catcher for another team was higher than his value as a first baseman to the Braves. When trade value outpaces actual value, then a trade is necessary for the organization to maximize the value of the asset.

Now, obviously, the loss of positional value from a shift from first base to leftfield isn't as significant as a shift between catcher and first base. Still, moving Votto to left to accommodate Yonder will result in a significant downgrade on defense. The presence of Joey Votto at the MLB level may well mean that Yonder's value to other teams is higher than his value to the Reds.

Overall, it seems like there is better total value (offense + defense) to be reaped from trading Yonder than there is in keeping him.

Trade Options

The obvious holes on the Reds 2010 lineup are at shortstop, catcher, and leftfield. If the Reds can flip Yonder to get an impact bat at one of those positions or fill two of those slots with solid players, then a trade would be the better course of action.

The Reds have the makings of a solid lineup in 2010, but they need to start utilizing the farm system to support the major league team. They have value in the farm system, but it may not be the type of value that they can easily plug into the MLB lineup. The better option at this point would be to trade it for an asset that better fits the organization's needs.

The Reds aren't too far off from being tough to handle, but they need to use the value in the system to support the MLB team. Over the past few years, it seems that the Reds are not extracting the maximum amount of value from their developing farm system as they should. This would be a good offseason to change all that, as a shrewd move or two will put the Reds in good position to compete in 2010.

Juan Francisco Gets the Call. What does it mean?

143 games into the season, the Reds decided to promote Juan Francisco. The 22 year old was coming off a stellar 2009 season in which he had a slash line of .295/.329/.518/.847 with 27 homers and a 115/24 K/BB ratio spread over two levels of the minors.

The acquisition of Scott Rolen saves us all from having to watch Francisco hold down the hot corner. In the minors, Francisco posted an absurd 39 errors and scouting reports are dubious as to his defense. He has plus arm strength, but was unlikely to ever be more than Edwin Encarnacion Part Deux on defense.

As of late, Francisco has spent a bit of time in leftfield, so that may be his future destination. Still, it's obviously his bat that will need to carry him at the MLB level. To me, this promotion raises two questions, but first here is a look at Francisco doing what he does best:








Why Francisco instead of Todd Frazier?

I would imagine that the obvious question that leaps to the minds of most Reds fans is why Juan Francisco over Todd Frazier?

There really doesn't seem to be a good answer to that question. Frazier is a year older and as a college player he's quite simply the much more polished prospect. Juan Francisco is a year younger and his overall skill set is much more raw.

Between double-A and triple-A, Francisco has a line of .295/.329/.518/.847, while Frazier has a line of .292/.351/.481/.832. Pretty similar levels of production, so why has Frazier been bounced from defensive position to defensive position and been basically treated like a future utility player, while Francisco plays horrendous defense and still gets the coveted September call-up?

The only thought that leaps to mind is that the Reds value players with one elite skill higher than the "Jack of All Trades, Master of None" type players. Juan Francisco displays true light-tower power, but little else. Todd Frazier lacks flash, but is a very solid, heady ballplayer.

Another example would be the Reds belief that speed demon Willy Taveras is actually a valuable Major League Baseball player. He lacks any other discernible skill, but the Reds love the one elite skill that he possesses.

For better or worse (I'd argue the latter), the Reds seem dazzled by an elite tool to the exclusion of all else. The Reds prefer one elite tool to an overflowing toolbox. Of course, in this case, that leads to Juan Francisco, not Todd Frazier.

What is the future of Francisco in the Reds Organization?

The Scott Rolen acquisition forecloses an option that should have already been ruled out. The idea that Francisco could play a competent third base at the MLB level was unrealistic in the best of times. Now that Rolen is in the mix, Francisco will officially have to be moved to a different position.

As I mentioned in my most recent prospect write up of Francisco, his inevitable slide down the defensive spectrum would reduce the value of his bat. Now that time is upon us and I have questions as to whether his bat can carry him at an offense first position like leftfield or first base. Obviously, first base is occupied by Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso would rank higher up the depth chart than Francisco. And, quite frankly, I have questions as to whether he can be even an average leftfielder. What good does it do to have a potentially above average offensive talent if he gives away all of his above average production with his below average defense?

So, what does the future hold? Are the Reds calling him up because they view him as a viable option in leftfield for 2010? Given that Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are going to hold down two of the three outfield slots and Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Willy Taveras, and Joey Votto/Yonder Alonso in the mix for the final slot, that may not be a workable option.

The other option is that the Reds are calling up him simply to showcase him for a potential trade this offseason. This strikes me as the better option. The function of the farm system is to support the Major League club and that can be done by promoting homegrown talent or by trading prospects to acquire pieces that are a better fit for the team's needs.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Given the Reds preference for players with an elite tool and Dusty Baker's previously expressed admiration for Juan Francisco, they are likely giving Francisco a legitimate audition for a starting job in 2010, despite the fact that he might ultimately bring more value to the organization in trade.

The Arrival: Drew Stubbs

Just when the Reds 2009 season was becoming borderline unwatchable for even the hardiest fans, a shot in the arm arrived in the form of centerfield prospect Drew Stubbs. For fans who grade out as something above "casual fan," the opportunity to view top prospects can make an otherwise unwatchable season somewhat watchable.

Stubbs is one of the Reds top prospects, though one whose selection in the draft came with one of the biggest opportunity costs in MLB history, but has been languishing in the minors. Perhaps to the point of stagnation, as he had really done as much developing as he was likely to do. In fact, there were rumblings from the fans that the Reds should have brought Stubbs up for a cup of coffee last September. Still, the Reds were probably right in their belief that Stubbs wasn't quite ready last September, but may have kept in the minors a bit too long.

In the minors, Stubbs was working on a slash line of .268/.353/.360 with a 104/51 K/BB ratio, 46 steals in 54 attempts, and a paltry 3 homeruns in 411 At Bats. Suffice it to say, Stubbs' prospect star tarnished a wee bit in 2009, due in no small part to his power outage and the performance of Chris "Supernova" Heisey.

Still, Stubbs has reopened some eyes with his performance at the MLB level thus far. He has matched his full season minor league homerun total in less than 61 MLB At Bats. In my book, Stubbs' value is tied to his power output. He can be a very nice player if he hits only single digit homers. Still, if that's all the power he provides, then he's a complimentary player. However, he can be a true impact player if he can hit 20+ homers a season. Time will tell.


Things I like about Drew Stubbs in 2009

1. The Improved Power Production

Not only does he already have 3 homeruns, but he's driven several more balls deep into the outfield that have settled into the gloves of fielders, including a fastball from Matt Cain that reached the warning track.

Still, he's already cranked three homers, so it's looking likely that Stubbs can run into 10-12 homers a year almost by accident. So, maybe 20+ bombs and a future as an impact player isn't out of the question.

Hopefully, Stubbs' power production doesn't completely fall off the table a la Chris Dickerson in 2009.

2. Speed and Stride

Stubbs is very, very fast. And, he's got a natural, free-and-easy stride that allows him to cover a lot of ground, both on the basepaths and in the outfield. He really glides out there and rea

He's already swiped 3 bases on the year, which should be an indication of what's to come in the future. Stubbs could be the big time threat on the bases that the Reds sorely need.

3. Line Drive Swing

I've always liked Stubbs' swing. He stands tall up there and has a smooth, fluid righthanded swing. Contact has always been a problem, in part because of his height and longer arms, but his swing produces line drives at a good clip when he does make contact.

During his brief MLB career, Stubbs is hitting line drives at a 22.5% clip, which is very strong. Admittedly, it's a small sample size, but at the very least you have to appreciate the swing.

Things that Concern Me about Drew Stubbs in 2009

1. Strikeouts

Obviously, this has always been the concern with Stubbs. Whether he can make enough contact to take advantage of his power and speed.

Typically, I don't worry too much about strikeouts. I'm a big believer in the value of late-count hitters and one of the byproducts of such an approach is a significant number of strikeouts. Still, there is a tipping point at which the lack of contact and putting the ball in play becomes a real drag on offensive production. His minor league career stats and his early 2009 MLB stats indicate that Stubbs may live dangerously close to this tipping point during his MLB career.

2. Defense

Now, I'll preface this by saying that Stubbs certainly has all the tools to be one of the premier defensive centerfielders at the MLB level, which is undoubtedly what he'll become. In fact, he's shown flashes of it already, but I just haven't seen him translate his considerable skills into top drawer defensive play.

Stubbs seems to have a good first step and covers a lot of ground in the outfield, but he has taken a few strange routes to the ball and hasn't taken charge on a couple of balls in no mans land like a centerfielder should.

Overall, I'm not worried about his defense at all. He's clearly a defensive stud in the making and any problems he is having at the MLB level likely stem from the learning curve of Major League Baseball.

I'd imagine that he is still getting used to the size of big league ballparks, which have upper decks not seen in the minors. The more massive ballparks can take some getting used to for outfielders.

Also, Stubbs is likely going to get more and more comfortable taking charge on the field. Maybe he didn't feel comfortable running the show in the outfield as a rookie, but that certainly won't last long.

There is one point of interest on Stubbs and his defense. The only criticism I have ever heard of his defensive ability is that he sometimes has difficulty going back on the ball. And, while the sample size is very small, John Dewan's +/- system may well bear that out.

In 2009, the +/- system rates Stubbs as a net 0, as he is a +2 on Shallow balls in play, a +3 on Medium balls in play, and a -5 on Deep balls in play.

I would imagine that a larger sample size will put an end to that trend, but it's interesting to note that his early season performance is somewhat in line with scouting reports on his defense.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Stubbs has impressed me during his debut. I was rather concerned about his utter lack of power this year in the minors, but his early MLB performance indicates that the power is lying just under the surface. Whether the power shows up or not, it'll be nice to have a gazelle like Stubbs patrolling centerfield for the foreseeable future. The only people who will enjoy watching Stubbs glide around the outfield more than the fans will be the Reds pitchers.

Like most Reds fans, I'm excited to see what the future will hold for Stubbs and I'm thankful that there are still a few things worth watching in the 2009 Reds season.

Rebuilding the Big Red Machine: Step 2

Go Back To: Step 1

Well, we are still in Phase 1 of the rebuilding process, which focuses on improving the revenue stream. However, we took a big step forward in Step 1, so this step will have dual purposes: increasing revenue and building the Reds brand.

One of the most positive trends to whip through Major League Baseball over the past 60 years is the increasing number of minority and foreign born players. The diversity is not just great for the game of baseball, but also for the business of baseball.

International Prospects

However, not all international prospects are created equal or treated equally. Many of the best Latin American prospects were signed before the age of 18 at an inexpensive cost. The Reds signed Johnny Cueto that way. Latin American prospects can provide tremendous on-the-field value. In fact, they are still the best value in the international realm. The trickle down effect of increasing revenue is raising the bonuses of the top Latin American prospects, but there are still values to be found.

On the other end of the international free agent spectrum are the Japanese players. Whereas the Latin American players are young, inexpensive, and raw, the Japanese players are typically just the opposite. They are usually experienced, expensive, and polished. All of which means that the Latin American players are usually low risk and high reward, whereas the Japanese players are much higher risk and lower reward.

By and large, I'd like to see the Reds focus their international scouting efforts in Latin America, where the best values are typically found. However, oddly enough, this step focuses on the other end of international free agent spectrum: making a big splash with an elite Japanese prospect.

"Go West...er, East...Far East, Young Man"

In the past, whenever someone has suggested that the Reds should pursue one of the big name Japanese free agents, I always oppose the ideas. Looking over the recent past, it frequently seems that the Japanese prospects fail to live up to the hype. From DiceK to Kosuke Fukudome to Kaz Matsui to Hideki Irabu, the production is frequently outweighed by the cost.

However, that was looking at things from purely a baseball standpoint. That was the old way of thinking, not the new Big Red Machine train of thought. Now, we are thinking big in order to rebuild this organization into something great. To quote Bull Durham: "Think classy, you'll be classy." The move I'm advocating here is much more of a business decision than a pure baseball decision. However, in the best case scenario, it would work out in both respects.

Thinking back to the day when the Red Sox outbid the Yankees for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka, I couldn't understand how the deal made any sense. The Red Sox submitted the high bid of $51,111,111 to the Seibu Lions to acquire the exclusive rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. They then proceeded to sign DiceK for 6 years and $52,000,000.

Now, sitting at home, I could scarcely fathom how it made sense for the Red Sox to spend the equivalent of the Kansas City, Tampa Bay, or Oakland payroll simply for the right to negotiate with DiceK. Of course, the answer is that it didn't. At least not from a purely baseball standpoint. As evidenced by his performance at the MLB level, DiceK was not worth the cost to acquire him. However, that deal had much less to do with performance than it did revenue. The purpose of the deal was for the Red Sox to build their brand by making inroads into the Asian market.

In 2001, Ichiro's first season with the Mariners, sales of Seattle Mariners' MLB-licensed merchandise increased 60% in Japan. In addition, the Mariners were able to negotiate a better local broadcast deal after signing Ichiro, as ratings increased for Mariner games.

In 2003, during Hideki Matsui's first season with the Yankees, international licensed merchandise sales went up 30%. And, of course, in 2007, DiceK's arrival created a 15% increase in international merchandise.

Also, MLB has been able negotiate agreements to broadcast games in Japan, which has brought in significant revenue.

Now, it should be mentioned up front, that there isn't much direct financial benefit to signing Japanese stars. The increased revenue, wherever collected worldwide, is distributed equally among the 30 teams. So, if the Red Sox sell a ton of DiceK jerseys, they still only get 1/30th of the revenue. International broadcast revenue is also divided equally.

However, that's not to say that signing a big name Japanese free agent is without financial value. While MLB teams cannot enter into their own licensing deals, they can contract for sponsorship deals. If you watch a Mariner, Yankee, or Red Sox game, often times you will see advertising for Japanese companies. These companies want to take advantage of the increased Japanese viewership of the team created by the new free agent.

In addition, the excitement generated by the new international free agent typically leads to increased ticket sales, as foreign tourists and hometown fans alike have an interest in seeing the new player. Also, the excitement could lead to better television ratings, which would allow the Reds to charge more for advertising on the team owned Regional Sports Network.

So, there is significant financial incentive to signing a big name Japanese free agent.

Building the Brand

In addition to the financial benefits of signing a premier Japanese free agent, there are ancillary benefits to be reaped by the organization. Namely, building the brand.

Over the last decade, the Reds have sunk to new lows. In fact, they have sunk so low that they are in danger of sliding right past incompetence and hitting bottom at irrelevance. Over the past months and years, I've increasingly heard the Reds organization and players being disparaged and made the punchline of jokes. The Reds have lost a great deal of respect around Major League Baseball and have been relegated to also-ran status. In short, the Reds simply don't "move the needle" in the world of baseball.

The last time the Reds made a big splash was when they acquired Josh Hamilton in the Rule V draft. The Reds were the toast of the town when Hamilton turned his life around and flashed the potential that made him the #1 overall pick in the draft. That's the only time in recent memory the Reds were discussed in positive, borderline glowing, terms around baseball. It's time for them to do it again.

By signing an elite Japanese free agent, the Reds would be announcing to not just baseball, but to the world, that they are an organization with which to be reckoned. That they are serious about building the organization into a first class winner.

However, all of this cannot be done with just any run-of-the mill Japanese free agent, rather it must be an elite Japanese free agent. But, which one?

Yu Darvish - Reds Savior?

Well, it just so happens that there is an elite Japanese free agent on the horizon. Young, fireballing righthanded pitcher Yu Darvish has been on the radar for the past couple of seasons and he is likely the next big import from Japan. Darvish throws from a three-quarter arm slot and is reported to feature a 93-97 mph fastball with a nasty slider. Like many Japanese pitchers, he also features a wide array of offspeed offerings. He is already coveted by many teams in the game, but there's no reason why the Reds cannot compete for his services.

It remains to be seen when, or if, Darvish will head to the States to play pro-ball, but the odds are good that it will happen in the near future. When it does, the Reds could make a bold statement by beating the competition to the punch and acquiring his services. There has been some question of whether Darvish would have to go through the posting system, but it might be advantageous (though expensive) for the Reds if he did. After all, the negotiating rights that go to the highest bidder are exclusive, so Darvish would have to sign with the team that won his rights or not at all.

Final Thoughts

By making a big splash with a signing of Yu Darvish, the Reds would be increasing their revenue and refurbishing the image of the entire organization. The Reds logo would become a popular and recognizable symbol in Japan and the team's games would be watched by Darvish's fans back in Japan.

It's also the type of bold action that could "move the needle" and make the Reds relevant once again in the United States. The national media would be forced to sit up and take notice. Not to mention, ESPN might actually televise a Reds game again. The Reds would again be discussed in a positive manner around Major League Baseball.

This is also the type of move that would improve the image of the organization in the eyes of players around the league, which would make attracting free agents easier and would allow the Reds to attract talent without having to overpay for it. Darvish could be a "loss leader" of sorts, which could lead to an improved product on the field.

In short, this is the type of move that the Reds need. And, the increased revenue generated by the Regional Sports Network could give the Reds the financial resources to get just such a move done.

Go to: Step 3