Saturday, November 14, 2009

2009 Top 25 Reds Prospects and Review

Time to clean up the blog to get ready for the 2010 prospect list.

Alonso didn't set the world on fire, but he did enough to justify the #1 slot. Soto struggled against more advanced competition in a tough park for hitters. Stubbs and Frazier continued their steady progression up the ladder, while injuries derailed Lotzkar, Thompson, and Buck.

Two personal favorites (Ravin and Oliveras) took the steps forward that I wanted to see, while two others (Dorn and Dickerson) didn't exactly live up to expectations. Chris Heisey enjoyed a breakout season, flashing a well-rounded game that could see emerge at the big league level as an every day player, rather than a mere 4th outfielder.

One of the uber-prospects signed during the international free agency period thrived, while the other struggled. And, in something of a make or break year, Travis Wood broke through in a big way.

Overall, it was a rather interesting year down on the farm, but there was a great deal of turnover resulting from trades, injuries, and promotions to the majors. So, the 2010 list will welcome a significant number of new prospects into the fold.

Anyway, here is one last look at the 2009 list before turning the page to 2010.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1b
2. Neftali Soto, inf
3. Todd Frazier, inf/of
4. Drew Stubbs, cf
5. Chris Valaika, inf
6. Chris Dickerson, cf
7. Devin Mesoraco, c
8. Danny Dorn, 1b/lf
9. Juan Francisco, 3b
10. Kyle Lotzkar, rhp

11. Daryl Thompson, rhp
12. Dallas Buck, rhp
13. Josh Roenicke, rhp
14. Matt Maloney, lhp
15. Zach Stewart, rhp
16. Alex Buchholz, inf
17. Yorman Rodriguez, of
18. Juan Duran, of
19. Travis Wood, lhp
20. Zach Cozart, ss

21. Pedro Viola, lhp
22. Carlos Fisher, rhp
23. Adam Rosales, inf
24. Josh Ravin, rhp
25. Alexis Oliveras, of

xx) Other Notables


  1. so when are you going to start posting the 2010 prospects list?

  2. I've already started a couple write-ups, so it won't be long now. Barring something unforeseen, it'll be within the next week for sure. Thanks.

  3. YESSSSSS my fav posts of the year lol

  4. If you don't mind me asking where do you get these mini-scouting reports on the players? Or is it just your personal observations of said players? If accurate very good info to know. For example I wasn't real big on Wiley due to a lack of consistent pop (although always loved his discipline) but your report tends to give support to the idea he could still develop more power.

  5. Also wanted to say nice blog, very informative.

  6. Anon,

    These write-ups are my evaluations of the players. I try to use as many different sources as a I can find (i.e. watching them play, video, scouting reports, statistical analysis, etc, etc) to arrive at an opinion on the players and their potential for the future. I try to take both production/results and process/mechanics into consideration.

    Sometimes I'm on the money and sometimes I miss the mark. But, in part, that's the nature of scouting and player evaluation and part of what makes it fun. I'll be the first to admit that I'm far from infallible, but I try to learn from any mistakes to improve my analysis for the future. Hopefully, each successive wave of reports is better and more accurate than the one before it.

    As for Wiley, I do think there is more power potential in him. He's got good athleticism and power is frequently the last tool to develop. He also has a strong build, which should only help. Also, I don't think it's a fluke when you hit 3 homers in a game. You've got me thinking more about that, so I'm going to check to see how many MLB players have hit 3 homers in a game over the past few years and how many of them are considered to have legitimate power. I'll check, but I don't think I'll find many punch-and-judy type hitters who have managed the feat. They may be able to hit a homer every now and then and even two in one game, but three?

    The on-base skills were the first thing that caught my eye with Wiley, but I do think there's more there than just the ability to get on base. Whether there's enough for him to carve out an MLB career remains to be seen, but I like what I have seen so far.

    Anyway, thanks for the comment!


  7. Well, I finally got around to looking it up, so here is a quick list of guys who hit 3 homers in a game in 2009:

    Paul Konerko
    Andre Ethier
    Torii Hunter

    And, guys who did it in 2008:

    Evan Longoria
    Alfonso Soriano
    Mark Teixeira
    Jayson Werth
    Joey Votto

    And, in 2007:

    Frank Thomas
    Justin Morneau
    Brad Wilkerson
    Alfonso Soriano
    Carlos Lee

    And, in 2006:

    Cody Ross
    Ryan Howard
    Albert Pujols
    Nick Markakis
    Jose Reyes
    Chipper Jones
    Mark Teixeira

    By and large, those are all guys who possess legitimate power. Obviously, those guys did it against major league caliber pitching, but I still think Wiley's 3 homer game is indicative of legitimate power potential. Maybe he benefited from facing younger competition, but regardless you still have to be able to drive the ball with authority.

    It'll be interesting to see how Wiley develops, but I do believe he possesses some additional power projection.

  8. I am Will

    Lark you missed one 3 HR guy, Jonny Gomes.

  9. Will,

    Doh!! How could I have forgotten the great Jonny Gomes?? Baseball Reference must not have had the game data for such recent games loaded. Either that or it was operator error. ;)

    Even so, Gomes is another 3 homer guy with legitimate power. He certainly has his drawbacks, but power has never been one of them. You just don't see 3 homer games very often from guys without substantial power potential.

    Anyway, good catch!!